Dynamic Risk Factors for Handgun Carrying: Are There Developmental or Sex Differences?

Objective: This study examines the effects of dynamic risk factors on handgun carrying from adolescence into young adulthood.Method: A nationally representative sample of 8,679 individuals (ages 12-26; 51.1% male; 58% White, 26.8% African American; 21.2% Hispanic ethnicity) from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (1997 cohort) interviewed at least three times across nine annual waves is used to estimate effects on handgun carrying. Key predictors include gang membership, selling and using drugs, violent crime, and arrest. Using mixed effects models, we focus on within-individual effects across three timeframes from ages 12 to 26: 1) predictors and handgun carrying measured concurrently, 2) predictors measured across one year and handgun carrying measured in the final month of the same year, and 3) predictors measured in the wave before handgun carrying. We also contrast estimates by sex and age.Results: All theoretically relevant predictors statistically significantly predict handgun carrying across the first two timeframes. However, none are statistically significant predictors of handgun carrying in the following year. Few significant sex and age differences emerge.Conclusions: Handgun carrying is an ephemeral behavior particularly during adolescence. The predictors of handgun carrying, which are grounded in gangs, drug use/sale, and crime involvement, appear to have short-term impacts that are consistent across age as well as across sex. Consequently, future work should focus on shorter-term changes in models and there is no evidence that intervention efforts must take fundamentally different approaches to reduce handgun use among males versus females or adolescents versus adults.

Drug Dealing and Gun Carrying go Hand in Hand: Examining How Juvenile Offenders' Gun Carrying Changes Before and After Drug Dealing Spells across 84 Months.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to examine whether periods of marijuana and other illicit drug dealing ("spells" of dealing) are associated with changes in young male offenders' gun carrying behavior. METHODS: This paper uses 84 months of data from a sample of 479 serious juvenile male offenders who were assessed every six months for three years and then annually for four years. At each assessment, participants reported on engagement in illicit behaviors, including drug dealing and gun carrying, in each month since the prior interview. We used fixed effects models to assess within-individual changes in participants' gun carrying immediately before, during, and right after a dealing spell, while controlling for relevant time varying confounds (e.g., gang involvement, exposure to violence). Additionally, we tested moderation by type of drug sold. RESULTS: There was a slight increase in gun carrying right before a drug dealing spell (OR = 1.3-1.4), then a more pronounced increase in gun carrying during the months of a drug dealing spell (OR = 8.0-12.8). Right after a dealing spell ends, youths' gun carrying dropped dramatically, but remained significantly elevated relative to their baseline levels (OR = 2.6-2.8). The association between drug dealing spells and increases in gun carrying was stronger when participants dealt hard drugs (e.g., cocaine, heroin) relative to marijuana. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that designing and implementing programs to prevent the initiation of drug dealing and decrease involvement in drug dealing may help to substantially reduce illegal gun carrying and firearm violence among delinquent males.

Predictors of emotional and physical dating violence in a sample of serious juvenile offenders.

AIM: We estimate group-based dating violence trajectories and identify the adolescent risk factors that explain membership in each trajectory group. METHOD: Using longitudinal data from the Pathways to Desistance Study, which follows a sample of 1354 serious juvenile offenders from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and Phoenix, Arizona between mid-adolescence and early adulthood, we estimate group-based trajectory models of both emotional dating violence and physical dating violence over a span of five years in young adulthood. We then estimate multinomial logistic regression models to identify theoretically motivated risk factors that predict membership in these groups. RESULTS: We identified three developmental patterns of emotional dating violence: none (33%), low-level (59%) and high-level decreasing (8%). The best-fitting model for physical dating violence also had three groups: none (73%), low-level (24%) and high-level (3%). Race/ethnicity, family and psychosocial variables were among the strongest predictors of both emotional and physical dating violence. In addition, delinquency history variables predicted emotional dating violence and relationship variables predicted physical dating violence. CONCLUSIONS: Dating violence is quite prevalent in young adulthood among serious juvenile offenders. Numerous predictors distinguish between chronic dating violence perpetrators and other groups. These may suggest points of intervention for reducing future violence. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

With or Without You? Contextualizing the Impact of Romantic Relationship Breakup on Crime Among Serious Adolescent Offenders.

The decline and delay of marriage has prolonged adolescence and the transition to adulthood, and consequently fostered greater romantic relationship fluidity during a stage of the life course that is pivotal for both development and offending. Yet, despite a growing literature of the consequences of romantic relationships breakup, little is known about its connection with crime, especially among youth enmeshed in the criminal justice system. This article addresses this gap by examining the effects of relationship breakup on crime among justice-involved youth-a key policy-relevant group. We refer to data from the Pathways to Desistance Study, a longitudinal study of 1354 (14% female) adjudicated youth from the juvenile and adult court systems in Phoenix and Philadelphia, to assess the nature and complexity of this association. In general, our results support prior evidence of breakup's criminogenic influence. Specifically, they suggest that relationship breakup's effect on crime is particularly acute among this at-risk sample, contingent upon post-breakup relationship transitions, and more pronounced for relationships that involve cohabitation. Our results also extend prior work by demonstrating that breakup is attenuated by changes in psychosocial characteristics and peer associations/exposure. We close with a discussion of our findings, their policy implications, and what they mean for research on relationships and crime among serious adolescent offenders moving forward.

Gang membership between ages 5 and 17 years in the United States.

PURPOSE: This study determined the frequency, prevalence, and turnover in gang membership between ages 5 and 17 years in the United States. METHODS: Data were from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, which is representative of youth born between 1980 and 1984. Age-specific patterns of gang joining, participation, and leaving are estimated based on youths (N = 7,335) self-reported gang membership at the baseline and eight subsequent interviews, which were combined with population age estimates from the 2010 U.S. Census to produce national estimates of gang membership. Sampling variance-adjusted bounds were estimated based on assumptions about missing cases and survey design effects. Demographic and socioeconomic variables are used to compare differences between gang and nongang youth. RESULTS: Youth gang members were disproportionately male, black, Hispanic, from single-parent households, and families living below the poverty level. We estimated that there were 1,059,000 youth gang members in the United States in 2010 (bounds ranging from 675,000 to 1,535,000). The prevalence of youth gang membership was 2.0% (1.2%-2.8%), peaking at age 14 years at 5.0% (3.9%-6.0%). Annually, 401,000 (204,000-639,000) juveniles join gangs and 378,000 (199,000-599,000) exit gangs, with a turnover rate of 36%. CONCLUSIONS: We discovered that significantly more people are involved with gangs than previous estimates would suggest. Clinicians and policy makers must recognize that youth gang members may not conform to popular perceptions of gang demographics. The patterns of youth gang membership observed in this study support prevention programs aimed at children before the teen years. This strategy is more likely to succeed than gang intervention or suppression strategies aimed at teens.

Age and the explanation of crime, revisited.

Age is one of the most robust correlates of criminal behavior. Yet, explanations for this relationship are varied and conflicting. Developmental theories point to a multitude of sociological, psychological, and biological changes that occur during adolescence and adulthood. One prominent criminological perspective outlined by Gottfredson and Hirschi claims that age has a direct effect on crime, inexplicable from sociological and psychological variables. Despite the attention this claim has received, few direct empirical tests of it have been conducted. We use data from Pathways to Desistance, a longitudinal study of over 1,300 serious youthful offenders (85.8% male, 40.1% African-American, 34.3% Hispanic, 21.0% White), to test this claim. On average, youths were 16.5 years old at the initial interview and were followed for 7 years. We use multilevel longitudinal models to assess the extent to which the direct effects of age are reduced to statistical and substantive non-significance when constructs from a wide range of developmental and criminological theories are controlled. Unlike previous studies, we are able to control for changes across numerous realms emphasized within differing theoretical perspectives including social control (e.g., employment and marriage), procedural justice (e.g., perceptions of the legitimacy and fairness of the legal system), learning (e.g., gang membership and exposure to antisocial peers), strain (e.g., victimization and relationship breakup), psychosocial maturity (e.g., impulse control, self-regulation and moral disengagement), and rational choice (e.g., costs and rewards of crime). Assessed separately, these perspectives explain anywhere from 3% (procedural justice) to 49% (social learning) of the age-crime relationship. Together, changes in these constructs explain 69% of the drop in crime from ages 15 to 25. We conclude that the relationship between age and crime in adolescence and early adulthood is largely explainable, though not entirely, attributable to multiple co-occurring developmental changes.

Using State Child Labor Laws to Identify the Causal Effect of Youth Employment on Deviant Behavior and Academic Achievement.

On the basis of prior research findings that employed youth, and especially intensively employed youth, have higher rates of delinquent behavior and lower academic achievement, scholars have called for limits on the maximum number of hours per week that teenagers are allowed to work. We use the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 to assess the claim that employment and work hours are causally related to adolescent problem behavior. We utilize a change model with age-graded child labor laws governing the number of hours per week allowed during the school year as instrumental variables. We find that these work laws lead to additional number of hours worked by youth, which then lead to increased high school dropout but decreased delinquency. Although counterintuitive, this result is consistent with existing evidence about the effect of employment on crime for adults and the impact of dropout on youth crime.