A comparative analysis of risk factor associations with interval and screen-detected breast cancers: A large UK prospective study.

The associations of certain factors, such as age and menopausal hormone therapy, with breast cancer risk are known to differ for interval and screen-detected cancers. However, the extent to which associations of other established breast cancer risk factors differ by mode of detection is unclear. We investigated associations of a wide range of risk factors using data from a large UK cohort with linkage to the National Health Service Breast Screening Programme, cancer registration, and other health records. We used Cox regression to estimate adjusted relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between risk factors and breast cancer risk. A total of 9421 screen-detected and 5166 interval cancers were diagnosed in 517,555 women who were followed for an average of 9.72 years. We observed the following differences in risk factor associations by mode of detection: greater body mass index (BMI) was associated with a smaller increased risk of interval (RR per 5 unit increase 1.07, 95% CI 1.03-1.11) than screen-detected cancer (RR 1.27, 1.23-1.30); having a first-degree family history was associated with a greater increased risk of interval (RR 1.81, 1.68-1.95) than screen-detected cancer (RR 1.52, 1.43-1.61); and having had previous breast surgery was associated with a greater increased risk of interval (RR 1.85, 1.72-1.99) than screen-detected cancer (RR 1.34, 1.26-1.42). As these differences in associations were relatively unchanged after adjustment for tumour grade, and are in line with the effects of these factors on mammographic density, they are likely to reflect the effects of these risk factors on screening sensitivity.

Adiposity and risk of oesophageal cancer subtypes in the Million Women Study.

BACKGROUND: The strong association of body mass index (BMI) with increased oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk is established, but its relationship with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma is less clear. There is little evidence regarding the association of abdominal adiposity with either subtype. METHODS: In a large prospective cohort of women in the UK, mean age 56.2 [standard deviation (SD) = 4.9] years, we investigated the risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma in relation to self-reported BMI, waist circumference (WC) and waist-hip ratio (WHR), using Cox regression to estimate adjusted relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), taking account of potential reverse causation bias. RESULTS: During mean follow-up of 17.7 (SD = 4.9) years, 1386 adenocarcinomas and 1799 squamous cell carcinomas of the oesophagus were registered among 1 255 529 women. Compared with women of BMI 22.5 to <25 kg/m2, those with BMI ≥35 kg/m2 had a 2.5-fold risk of adenocarcinoma (adjusted RR = 2.46, 95% CI = 1.99-3.05) and an almost 70% reduction in risk of squamous cell carcinoma (RR = 0.32, 95% CI = 0.22-0.46). These associations were broadly similar in each 5-year follow-up period, and were evident in both never and ever smokers, although somewhat stronger for squamous cell carcinoma among current and past smokers than in never smokers (Pheterogeneity = 0.007). After controlling for BMI, WC and WHR were associated with risk of squamous cell carcinoma but not adenocarcinoma. CONCLUSIONS: In this population of middle-aged women, there was robust evidence that greater BMI is associated with an increased risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma and a reduced risk of squamous cell carcinoma.

Cognitive and social activities and long-term dementia risk: the prospective UK Million Women Study.

BACKGROUND: Although dementia is associated with non-participation in cognitive and social activities, this association might merely reflect the consequences of dementia, rather than any direct effect of non-participation on the subsequent incidence of dementia. Because of the slowness with which dementia can develop, unbiased assessment of any such direct effects must relate non-participation in such activities to dementia detection rates many years later. Prospective studies with long-term follow-up can help achieve this by analysing separately the first and second decade of follow-up. We report such analyses of a large, 20-year study. METHODS: The UK Million Women Study is a population-based prospective study of 1·3 million women invited for National Health Service (NHS) breast cancer screening in median year 1998 (IQR 1997-1999). In median year 2001 (IQR 2001-2003), women were asked about participation in adult education, groups for art, craft, or music, and voluntary work, and in median year 2006 (IQR 2006-2006), they were asked about reading. All participants were followed up through electronic linkage to NHS records of hospital admission with mention of dementia, the first mention of which was the main outcome. Comparing non-participation with participation in a particular activity, we used Cox regression to assess fully adjusted dementia risk ratios (RRs) during 0-4, 5-9, and 10 or more years, after information on that activity was obtained. FINDINGS: In 2001, 851 307 women with a mean age of 60 years (SD 5) provided information on participation in adult education, groups for art, craft, or music, and voluntary work. After 10 years, only 9591 (1%) had been lost to follow-up and 789 339 (93%) remained alive with no recorded dementia. Follow-up was for a mean of 16 years (SD 3), during which 31 187 (4%) had at least one hospital admission with mention of dementia, including 25 636 (3%) with a hospital admission with dementia mentioned for the first time 10 years or more after follow-up began. Non-participation in cognitive or social activities was associated with higher relative risks of dementia detection only during the first decade after participation was recorded. During the second decade, there was little association. This was true for non-participation in adult education (RR 1·04, 99% CI 0·98-1·09), in groups for art, craft, or music (RR 1·04, 0·99-1·09), in voluntary work (RR 0·96, 0·92-1·00), or in any of these three (RR 0·99, 0·95-1·03). In 2006, 655 118 women provided information on reading. For non-reading versus any reading, there were similar associations with dementia, again with strong attenuation over time since reading was recorded, but longer follow-up is needed to assess this reliably. INTERPRETATION: Life has to be lived forwards, but can be understood only backwards. Long before dementia is diagnosed, there is a progressive reduction in various mental and physical activities, but this is chiefly because its gradual onset causes inactivity and not because inactivity causes dementia. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK.

Body size, body composition and endometrial cancer risk among postmenopausal women in UK Biobank.

Previous studies on the association of adiposity with endometrial cancer risk have mostly used body mass index (BMI) as the main exposure of interest. Whether more precise measures of body fat, such as body fat percentage and fat mass estimated by bioimpedance analyses, are better indicators of risk than BMI is unknown. The role of central adiposity and fat-free mass in endometrial cancer development remains unclear. We used Cox regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the associations of various measures of body size/composition with the risk of endometrial cancer among 135 110 postmenopausal women enrolled in UK Biobank. During a mean follow up of 6.8 years, 706 endometrial cancers were diagnosed, with a mean age at diagnosis of 65.5 years. The HRs (95% CIs) for endometrial cancer per 1 SD increase in BMI, body fat percentage and fat mass were broadly comparable, being 1.71 (1.61-1.82), 1.92 (1.75-2.11) and 1.73 (1.63-1.85), respectively. There was an indication of positive association between central adiposity, as reflected by waist circumference (HRper 1-SD increase = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.00-1.17) and waist to hip ratio (HRper 1-SD increase = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.01-1.26), and endometrial cancer risk after accounting for BMI. Fat-free mass was not an independent predictor of risk in this cohort. These findings suggest that body fat percentage and fat mass are not better indicators of endometrial cancer risk than BMI. Further studies are needed to establish whether central adiposity contributes to risk beyond overall adiposity.

Alcohol intake and Parkinson's disease risk in the million women study.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol intake may be associated with a lower risk of Parkinson's disease (PD), but findings from previous studies have been inconclusive. OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between alcohol intake and PD risk in the Million Women Study, a large, prospective study of women in the UK. METHODS: Between 1996 and 2001, approximately 1.3 million women in the UK, mean age 56 (standard deviation, 5) years, were recruited into the Million Women Study. Information on alcohol intake, lifestyle factors, and medical history was collected at recruitment by questionnaire. Information on incident cases of PD was ascertained by record linkage to national hospital admission records and death registrations. We estimated multivariable-adjusted relative risks and corresponding 95% confidence intervals using Cox proportional hazards models according to categories of alcohol intake. RESULTS: During an average of 17.9 years of follow-up, 11,009 women had a new record of PD among 1,309,267 women. In drinkers, the multivariable-adjusted relative risk comparing women who drank more than 14 drinks of alcohol per week with women who drank 1 to 2 drinks of alcohol per week was 0.99 (95% confidence interval: 0.90, 1.10). Results did not materially change after excluding the first 10 years of follow-up (relative riskadjusted = 1.01; 95% confidence interval: 0.90, 1.13). There were no significant trends in alcohol-related PD risk among never smokers. Additionally, examining this association by type of alcohol intake also yielded null findings. CONCLUSION: These results do not support an association between alcohol intake and PD risk in women. © 2019 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Diet and risk of glioma: combined analysis of 3 large prospective studies in the UK and USA.

BACKGROUND: Available evidence on diet and glioma risk comes mainly from studies with retrospective collection of dietary data. To minimize possible differential dietary recall between those with and without glioma, we present findings from 3 large prospective studies. METHODS: Participants included 692 176 from the UK Million Women Study, 470 780 from the US National Institutes of Health-AARP study, and 99 148 from the US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Cox regression yielded study-specific adjusted relative risks for glioma in relation to 15 food groups, 14 nutrients, and 3 dietary patterns, which were combined, weighted by inverse variances of the relative risks. Separate analyses by <5 and ≥5 years follow-up assessed potential biases related to changes of diet before glioma diagnosis. RESULTS: The 1 262 104 participants (mean age, 60.6 y [SD 5.5] at baseline) were followed for 15.4 million person-years (mean 12.2 y/participant), during which 2313 incident gliomas occurred, at mean age 68.2 (SD 6.4). Overall, there was weak evidence for increased glioma risks associated with increasing intakes of total fruit, citrus fruit, and fiber and healthy dietary patterns, but these associations were generally null after excluding the first 5 years of follow-up. There was little evidence for heterogeneity of results by study or by sex. CONCLUSIONS: The largest prospective evidence to date suggests little, if any, association between major food groups, nutrients, or common healthy dietary patterns and glioma incidence. With the statistical power of this study and the comprehensive nature of the investigation here, it seems unlikely we have overlooked major effects of diet on risk of glioma that would be of public health concern.

Antidepressants, Depression, and Venous Thromboembolism Risk: Large Prospective Study of UK Women.

BACKGROUND: Some investigators have reported an excess risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) associated with depression and with use of antidepressant drugs. We explored these associations in a large prospective study of UK women. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Million Women Study recruited 1.3 million women through the National Health Service Breast Screening Programme in England and Scotland. Three years after recruitment, women were sent a second questionnaire that enquired about depression and regular use of medications in the previous 4 weeks. The present analysis included those who responded and did not have prior VTE, cancer, or recent surgery. Follow-up for VTE was through linkage to routinely collected National Health Service statistics. Cox regression analyses yielded adjusted hazard ratios and 95% CIs. A total of 734 092 women (mean age 59.9 years) were included in the analysis; 6.9% reported use of antidepressants, 2.7% reported use of other psychotropic drugs, and 1.8% reported being treated for depression or anxiety but not use of psychotropic drugs. During follow-up for an average of 7.3 years, 3922 women were hospitalized for and/or died from VTE. Women who reported antidepressant use had a significantly higher risk of VTE than women who reported neither depression nor use of psychotropic drugs (hazard ratio, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.23-1.56). VTE risk was not significantly increased in women who reported being treated for depression or anxiety but no use of antidepressants or other psychotropic drugs (hazard ratio, 1.19; 95% CI, 0.95-1.49). CONCLUSIONS: Use of antidepressants is common in UK women and is associated with an increased risk of VTE.

Smoking, surgery, and venous thromboembolism risk in women: United Kingdom cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence about the effect of smoking on venous thromboembolism risk, generally and in the postoperative period, is limited and inconsistent. We examined the incidence of venous thromboembolism in relation to smoking habits, both in the absence of surgery and in the first 12 postoperative weeks, in a large prospective study of women in the United Kingdom. METHODS AND RESULTS: During 6 years' follow-up of 1 162 718 women (mean age 56 years), 4630 were admitted to hospital for or died of venous thromboembolism. In the absence of surgery, current smokers had a significantly increased incidence of venous thromboembolism compared with never-smokers (adjusted relative risk 1.38, 95% confidence interval 1.28-1.48), with significantly greater risks in heavier than lighter smokers (relative risks 1.47 [95% confidence interval 1.34-1.62] and 1.29 [95% confidence interval 1.17-1.42] for ≥15 versus <15 cigarettes per day). Current smokers were also more likely to have surgery than never-smokers (relative risk 1.12, 95% confidence interval 1.12-1.13). Among women who had surgery, the incidence of venous thromboembolism in the first 12 postoperative weeks was significantly greater in current than never-smokers (relative risk 1.16, 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.30). CONCLUSIONS: Venous thromboembolism incidence was increased in current smokers, both in the absence of surgery and in the 12 weeks after surgery. Smoking is another factor to consider in the assessment of venous thromboembolism risk in patients undergoing surgery.

Body mass index, surgery, and risk of venous thromboembolism in middle-aged women: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Obesity and surgery are known risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE), but there is limited information about the independent effects of obesity on the incidence of postoperative VTE. We linked questionnaire data from the Million Women Study with hospital admission and death records to examine the risk of VTE in relation to body mass index (BMI) both in the absence of surgery and in the first 12 weeks following an operation. METHODS AND RESULTS: Overall, 1 170 495 women (mean age, 56.1 years) recruited in 1996 to 2001 through the National Health Service Breast Screening Programme in England and Scotland were followed for an average of 6 years, during which time 6438 were admitted to hospital or died of VTE. The adjusted relative risks of VTE increased progressively with increasing BMI and women with a BMI ≥ 35 kg/m(2) were 3-4 times as likely to develop VTE as those with a BMI 22.5 to 24.9 (relative risk 3.45 [95% CI 3.09-3.86]). Overweight and obese women were more likely than lean women to be admitted for surgery and also to develop postoperative VTE. During a 12-week period without surgery, the incidence rates of VTE per 1000 women with a BMI < 25 and ≥ 25 were 0.10 (0.09-0.10) and 0.19 (0.18-0.20); the corresponding rates in the 12 weeks following day and inpatient surgery were, respectively, about 4 and 40 times higher. CONCLUSIONS: VTE risk increases with increasing BMI and the associated excess risk is much greater after surgery than without surgery.

Duration and magnitude of the postoperative risk of venous thromboembolism in middle aged women: prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the duration and magnitude of increased risk of venous thromboembolism after different types of surgery. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study (Million Women Study). SETTING: Questionnaire data from the Million Women Study linked with hospital admission and death records. PARTICIPANTS: 947 454 middle aged women in the United Kingdom recruited in 1996-2001 and followed by record linkage to routinely collected NHS data on hospital admissions and deaths. During follow-up 239 614 admissions were for surgery; 5419 women were admitted, and a further 270 died, from venous thromboembolism. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Adjusted relative risks and standardised incidence rates for hospital admission or death from venous thromboembolism (pulmonary embolism or deep vein thrombosis), by time since and type of surgery. RESULTS: Compared with not having surgery, women were 70 times more likely to be admitted with venous thromboembolism in the first six weeks after an inpatient operation (relative risk 69.1, 95% confidence interval 63.1 to 75.6) and 10 times more likely after a day case operation (9.6, 8.0 to 11.5). The risks were lower but still substantially increased 7-12 weeks after surgery (19.6, 16.6 to 23.1 and 5.5, 4.3 to 7.0, respectively). This pattern of risk was similar for pulmonary embolism (n=2487) and deep venous thrombosis (n=3529). The postoperative risks of venous thromboembolism varied considerably by surgery type, with highest relative risks after inpatient surgery for hip or knee replacement and for cancer-1-6 weeks after surgery the relative risks were, respectively, 220.6 (187.8 to 259.2) and 91.6 (73.9 to 113.4). CONCLUSION: The risk of deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism after surgery is substantially increased in the first 12 postoperative weeks, and varies considerably by type of surgery. An estimated 1 in 140 middle aged women undergoing inpatient surgery in the UK will be admitted with venous thromboembolism during the 12 weeks after surgery (1 in 45 after hip or knee replacement and 1 in 85 after surgery for cancer), compared with 1 in 815 after day case surgery and only 1 in 6200 women during a 12 week period without surgery.

Gallbladder disease and use of transdermal versus oral hormone replacement therapy in postmenopausal women: prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether transdermal compared with oral use of hormone replacement therapy reduces the risk of gallbladder disease in postmenopausal women. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study (Million Women Study). SETTING: Women registered with the National Health Service (NHS) in England and Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: 1,001,391 postmenopausal women (mean age 56) recruited between 1996 and 2001 from NHS breast screening centres and followed by record linkage to routinely collected NHS hospital admission data for gallbladder disease. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Adjusted relative risk and standardised incidence rates of hospital admission for gallbladder disease or cholecystectomy according to use of hormone replacement therapy. RESULTS: During follow-up 19 889 women were admitted for gallbladder disease; 17 190 (86%) had a cholecystectomy. Compared with never users of hormone replacement therapy, current users were more likely to be admitted for gallbladder disease (relative risk 1.64, 95% confidence interval 1.58 to 1.69) but risks were substantially lower with transdermal therapy than with oral therapy (relative risk 1.17, 1.10 to 1.24 v 1.74, 1.68 to 1.80; heterogeneity P<0.001). Among women using oral therapy, equine oestrogens were associated with a slightly greater risk of gallbladder disease than estradiol (relative risk 1.79, 1.72 to 1.87 v 1.62, 1.54 to 1.70; heterogeneity P<0.001) and higher doses of oestrogen increased the risk more than lower doses: for equine oestrogens >0.625 mg, 1.91 (1.78 to 2.04) v 1 mg, 1.68 (1.59 to 1.77) v

Cervical cancer and hormonal contraceptives: collaborative reanalysis of individual data for 16,573 women with cervical cancer and 35,509 women without cervical cancer from 24 epidemiological studies.

BACKGROUND: Combined oral contraceptives are classified by the International Agency for Research on Cancer as a cause of cervical cancer. As the incidence of cervical cancer increases with age, the public-health implications of this association depend largely on the persistence of effects long after use of oral contraceptives has ceased. Information from 24 studies worldwide is pooled here to investigate the association between cervical carcinoma and pattern of oral contraceptive use. METHODS: Individual data for 16,573 women with cervical cancer and 35,509 without cervical cancer were reanalysed centrally. Relative risks of cervical cancer were estimated by conditional logistic regression, stratifying by study, age, number of sexual partners, age at first intercourse, parity, smoking, and screening. FINDINGS: Among current users of oral contraceptives the risk of invasive cervical cancer increased with increasing duration of use (relative risk for 5 or more years' use versus never use, 1.90 [95% CI 1.69-2.13]). The risk declined after use ceased, and by 10 or more years had returned to that of never users. A similar pattern of risk was seen both for invasive and in-situ cancer, and in women who tested positive for high-risk human papillomavirus. Relative risk did not vary substantially between women with different characteristics. INTERPRETATION: The relative risk of cervical cancer is increased in current users of oral contraceptives and declines after use ceases. 10 years' use of oral contraceptives from around age 20 to 30 years is estimated to increase the cumulative incidence of invasive cervical cancer by age 50 from 7.3 to 8.3 per 1000 in less developed countries and from 3.8 to 4.5 per 1000 in more developed countries.

Self-reported information on joint replacement and cholecystectomy agrees well with that in medical records.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the validity of self-reported primary hip replacement, primary knee replacement, and cholecystectomy. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: The data from 28,524 participants in the Million Women Study who were recruited from Scotland were linked with routinely collected Scottish hospital admission data. We compared the reporting of three operations by the study participants on a postal questionnaire with that recorded in the hospital admission database. RESULTS: Annual incidence rates for the three operations were similar using hospital admission and self-reported data at: 2.1 (n=220) and 2.3 (n=247) per 1,000 women, respectively, for hip replacement; 1.1 per 1,000 women from both sources for knee replacement (n=118 and n=116, respectively); and 3.4 (n=357) and 3.2 (n=344) per 1,000 women, respectively, for cholecystectomy. Agreement between self-report and the hospital admission records was good for all three operations with agreements of 99.8%, 99.9%, and 99.6% for hip replacement, knee replacement, and cholecystectomy, respectively. CONCLUSION: In middle-aged women who answered postal questionnaires, self-reporting of primary hip replacement, primary knee replacement, and cholecystectomy was found to agree well with information held in a medical record database.