Evaluation of pragmatic oxygenation measurement as a proxy for Covid-19 severity.

Choosing optimal outcome measures maximizes statistical power, accelerates discovery and improves reliability in early-phase trials. We devised and evaluated a modification to a pragmatic measure of oxygenation function, the [Formula: see text] ratio. Because of the ceiling effect in oxyhaemoglobin saturation, [Formula: see text] ratio ceases to reflect pulmonary oxygenation function at high [Formula: see text] values. We found that the correlation of [Formula: see text] with the reference standard ([Formula: see text]/[Formula: see text] ratio) improves substantially when excluding [Formula: see text] and refer to this measure as [Formula: see text]. Using observational data from 39,765 hospitalised COVID-19 patients, we demonstrate that [Formula: see text] is predictive of mortality, and compare the sample sizes required for trials using four different outcome measures. We show that a significant difference in outcome could be detected with the smallest sample size using [Formula: see text]. We demonstrate that [Formula: see text] is an effective intermediate outcome measure in COVID-19. It is a non-invasive measurement, representative of disease severity and provides greater statistical power.

A comparison of the effectiveness of different doses of tocilizumab and sarilumab in the treatment of severe COVID-19: a natural experiment due to drug shortages.

OBJECTIVES: Interleukin (IL)-6 inhibitors are administered to treat patients hospitalized with COVID-19. In 2021, due to shortages, different dosing regimens of tocilizumab, and a switch to sarilumab, were consecutively implemented. Using real-world data, we compare the effectiveness of these IL-6 inhibitors. METHODS: Hospitalized patients with COVID-19, treated with IL-6 inhibitors, were included in this natural experiment study. Sixty-day survival, hospital- and intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay, and progression to ICU or death were compared between 8 mg/kg tocilizumab, fixed-dose tocilizumab, low-dose tocilizumab, and fixed-dose sarilumab treatment groups. RESULTS: A total of 5485 patients from 49 hospitals were included. After correction for confounding, increased hazard ratios (HRs) for 60-day mortality were observed for fixed-dose tocilizumab (HR 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.39), low-dose tocilizumab (HR 1.12, 95% CI 0.97-1.31), and sarilumab (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.08-1.42), all relative to 8 mg/kg. The 8 mg/kg dosing regimen had lower odds of progression to ICU or death. Both hospital- and ICU length of stay were shorter for low-dose tocilizumab than for the 8 mg/kg group. CONCLUSION: We found differences in the probability of 60-day survival and the incidence of the combined outcome of mortality or ICU admission, mostly favoring 8 mg/kg tocilizumab. Because of potential time-associated residual confounding, further clinical studies are warranted.

Influenza Season and Outcome After Elective Cardiac Surgery: An Observational Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: An asymptomatic respiratory viral infection during cardiac surgery could lead to pulmonary complications and increased mortality. For elective surgery, testing for respiratory viral infection before surgery or vaccination could reduce the number of these pulmonary complications. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between influenzalike illness (ILI) seasons and prolonged mechanical ventilation and inhospital mortality in a Dutch cohort of adult elective cardiac surgery patients. METHODS: Cardiac surgery patients who were admitted to the intensive care unit between January 1, 2014, and February 1, 2020, were included. The primary endpoint was the duration of invasive mechanical ventilation in the ILI season compared with baseline season. Secondary endpoints were the median Pao2 to fraction of inspired oxygen ratio on days 1, 3, and 7 and postoperative inhospital mortality. RESULTS: A total of 42,277 patients underwent cardiac surgery, 12,994 (30.7%) in the ILI season, 15,843 (37.5%) in the intermediate season, and 13,440 (31.8%) in the baseline season. No hazard rates indicative of a longer duration of invasive mechanical ventilation during the ILI season were found. No differences were found for the median Pao2 to fraction of inspired oxygen ratio between seasons. However, inhospital mortality was higher in the ILI season compared with baseline season (odds ratio 1.67; 95% CI, 1.14-2.46). CONCLUSIONS: Patients undergoing cardiac surgery during the ILI season were at increased risk of inhospital mortality compared with patients in the baseline season. No evidence was found that this difference is caused by direct postoperative pulmonary complications.

Dynamic data-driven meta-analysis for prioritisation of host genes implicated in COVID-19.

The increasing body of literature describing the role of host factors in COVID-19 pathogenesis demonstrates the need to combine diverse, multi-omic data to evaluate and substantiate the most robust evidence and inform development of therapies. Here we present a dynamic ranking of host genes implicated in human betacoronavirus infection (SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, seasonal coronaviruses). We conducted an extensive systematic review of experiments identifying potential host factors. Gene lists from diverse sources were integrated using Meta-Analysis by Information Content (MAIC). This previously described algorithm uses data-driven gene list weightings to produce a comprehensive ranked list of implicated host genes. From 32 datasets, the top ranked gene was PPIA, encoding cyclophilin A, a druggable target using cyclosporine. Other highly-ranked genes included proposed prognostic factors (CXCL10, CD4, CD3E) and investigational therapeutic targets (IL1A) for COVID-19. Gene rankings also inform the interpretation of COVID-19 GWAS results, implicating FYCO1 over other nearby genes in a disease-associated locus on chromosome 3. Researchers can search and review the gene rankings and the contribution of different experimental methods to gene rank at https://baillielab.net/maic/covid19 . As new data are published we will regularly update the list of genes as a resource to inform and prioritise future studies.