Time-trends and age and stage differences in 5-year relative survival for common cancer types by sex in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Survival trends help to evaluate the progress made to reduce the burden of cancer. The aim was to estimate the trends in 5-year relative survival of patients diagnosed with breast, prostate, lung, colorectal cancer and skin melanoma in the time periods 1980-1989, 1990-1999, 2000-2009 and 2010-2015 in the Canton of Zurich, Switzerland. Furthermore, we investigated relative survival differences by TNM stage and age group. METHODS: Data from the Cancer Registry of Zurich was used from 1980 to and including 2015, including incident cases of breast (N = 26,060), prostate (N= 23,858), colorectal (N= 19,305), lung cancer (N= 16,858) and skin melanoma (N= 9780) with follow-up until 31 December 2020. The cohort approach was used to estimate 5-year relative survival. RESULTS: The 5-year relative survival increased significantly between 1980 and 1989, and 2010 and2015: from 0.70 to 0.89 for breast, from 0.60 to 0.92 for prostate, from 0.09 to 0.23 (men) and from 0.10 to 0.27 (women) for lung, from 0.46 to 0.66 (men) and from 0.48 to 0.68 (women) for colorectal cancer, and from 0.74 to 0.94 (men) and from 0.86 to 0.96 (women) for skin melanoma. Survival for stage IV tumors was considerably lower compared to lower-staged tumors for all cancer types. Furthermore, relative survival was similar for the age groups <80 years but lower for patients aged 80 years and older. CONCLUSION: The observed increasing trends in survival are encouraging and likely reflect raised awareness around cancer, improved diagnostic methods, and improved treatments. The fact that stage I tumor patients have generally high relative survival reflects the efforts made regarding early detection.

Predicting second breast cancer among women with primary breast cancer using machine learning algorithms, a population-based observational study.

Breast cancer survivors often experience recurrence or a second primary cancer. We developed an automated approach to predict the occurrence of any second breast cancer (SBC) using patient-level data and explored the generalizability of the models with an external validation data source. Breast cancer patients from the cancer registry of Zurich, Zug, Schaffhausen, Schwyz (N = 3213; training dataset) and the cancer registry of Ticino (N = 1073; external validation dataset), diagnosed between 2010 and 2018, were used for model training and validation, respectively. Machine learning (ML) methods, namely a feed-forward neural network (ANN), logistic regression, and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) were employed for classification. The best-performing model was selected based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Key characteristics contributing to a high SBC risk were identified. SBC was diagnosed in 6% of all cases. The most important features for SBC prediction were age at incidence, year of birth, stage, and extent of the pathological primary tumor. The ANN model had the highest area under the ROC curve with 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.750.82) in the training data and 0.70 (95% CI 0.61-0.79) in the external validation data. Investigating the generalizability of different ML algorithms, we found that the ANN generalized better than the other models on the external validation data. This research is a first step towards the development of an automated tool that could assist clinicians in the identification of women at high risk of developing an SBC and potentially preventing it.

Burden of smoking on disease-specific mortality, DALYs, costs: the case of a high-income European country.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is a major risk factor for chronic diseases causing early death and disability. Smoking prevalence over the past 25years has remained high in Switzerland. Evidence about the burden of disease and cost of illness attributable to smoking can support tobacco control. The aim of the present paper is to quantify from a societal perspective the mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), medical costs and productivity losses attributable to smoking in Switzerland in 2017. METHODS: Smoking attributable fractions (SAFs) were calculated based on the prevalence of current and former active smoking in the latest Swiss Health Survey from 2017 and relative risks from the literature. The SAFs were then multiplied with the number of deaths, DALYs, medical costs and productivity losses in the total population. RESULTS: In the Swiss population in 2017 smoking accounted for 14.4% of all deaths, for 29.2% of the deaths due to smoking-related diseases, 36.0% of the DALYs, 27.8% of the medical costs and 27.9% of productivity losses. Total costs amounted to CHF 5.0 billion which equals CHF 604 per capita per year. The highest disease burden in terms of mortality and DALYs attributable to smoking was observed for lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), whereas the highest cost of illness in terms of medical costs was observed for coronary heart diseases and lung cancer and in terms of productivity losses for COPD and coronary heart diseases. Sex and age group differences were found. CONCLUSIONS: We provide an estimate of the burden of smoking on disease-specific mortality, DALYs, medical costs and productivity losses in Switzerland that could be prevented through evidence-based tobacco prevention and control policies as well as regular monitoring of tobacco consumption.

Incidence and mortality trends of thyroid cancer from 1980 to 2016.

AIMS OF THE STUDY: Thyroid cancer incidence rates have been increasing globally over past decades. However, no study examining those trends in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland exists. In this study, we describe the incidence and mortality trends of thyroid cancer in the canton of Zurich during a 37-year period (1980-2016) including factors such as sex, histological subtypes and age at diagnosis. METHODS: We analysed population-based cancer registry data from 1980-2016 for the canton of Zurich, Switzerland. We estimated the age-standardised incidence and mortality rates using the European standard population. Joinpoint regression was used to detect average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: We included 2972 primary cases of thyroid cancer (72.3% in women). The papillary cases accounted for the majority of incident cases (65.8%). In 2016, women had a higher age-standardised incidence rate than men for both papillary (10.4 and 3.3, respectively, per 100,000) and non-papillary (1.6 and 0.7, respectively, per 100,000) thyroid cancer. In both men and women, the incidence rates of thyroid cancer increased significantly over the study period with AAPCs of 1.4% (95% CI 0.6-2.2%) and 2.6% (95% CI 2-3.1%), respectively. These increasing incidence trends are mainly driven by papillary thyroid cancer with AAPCs of 3.4% in men (95% CI 2.3% to 4.4%) and 4.3% in women (95% CI 3.7% to 5%). Mortality rates significantly decreased in both sexes (men AAPC -3.6%, 95% CI -4.7% to -2.4%; women AAPC -3.7%, 95% CI -4.8% to -2.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Our results show significantly increasing age-standardised incidence rates of thyroid cancer over time in both sexes, mainly due to papillary thyroid cancer, the most frequent histological subtype, and the only subtype for which a significant increase was observed. It is possible that many indolent thyroid cancers, and more specifically papillary microcarcinomas, are increasingly diagnosed, which may not lead to symptoms if undetected. Therefore, targeted diagnostic strategies are necessary to avoid overdiagnosis of thyroid cancer. Nevertheless, we cannot completely exclude a partly true increase.

Physical Activity Interventions for Primary Prevention in Adults: A Systematic Review of Randomized Controlled Trial-Based Economic Evaluations.

BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity is a worldwide pandemic associated with major chronic diseases. Given limited resources, policy makers are in need of physical activity interventions that provide best value for money. OBJECTIVE: To summarize evidence from RCT-based economic evaluations of primary prevention physical activity interventions in adult populations outside the workplace setting. DESIGN: Systematic review of health economic evaluations. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in US$ per MET-hour gained were estimated on the basis of mean differences in intervention costs and standardized effects between intervention and control groups. DATA SOURCES: Identification of relevant studies via systematic searches in electronic databases (MEDLINE, Embase and NHSEED). ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Cost-effectiveness analyses in which all data (except unit costs) came from one RCT investigating physical activity interventions for primary prevention or health promotion in an adult population in high-income countries. RESULTS: In twelve eligible studies, 22 interventions were investigated. Interventions were based on advice, goal setting and follow-up support, exercise classes, financial incentives or teaching on behavioral change. The ICER varied widely among the interventions and four interventions showed an ICER below the applied benchmark of US$0.44 to US$0.63 per MET-hour gained. These four interventions were based on individualized advice via print or web. CONCLUSION: We found evidence from RCTs indicating cost-effectiveness of some physical activity interventions for primary prevention in adults. However, the majority of interventions assessed would not be cost-effective according to the benchmark applied. Furthermore, our study showed that trial-based evidence on cost-effectiveness of physical activity interventions is scarce. Therefore, we recommend that future studies investigating the efficacy or effectiveness of such interventions consider costs as an additional outcome and assess cost-effectiveness.