Epidemiological and genomic investigation of chikungunya virus in Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, between 2015 and 2018.

Since 2014, Brazil has experienced an unprecedented epidemic caused by chikungunya virus (CHIKV), with several waves of East-Central-South-African (ECSA) lineage transmission reported across the country. In 2018, Rio de Janeiro state, the third most populous state in Brazil, reported 41% of all chikungunya cases in the country. Here we use evolutionary and epidemiological analysis to estimate the timescale of CHIKV-ECSA-American lineage and its epidemiological patterns in Rio de Janeiro. We show that the CHIKV-ECSA outbreak in Rio de Janeiro derived from two distinct clades introduced from the Northeast region in mid-2015 (clade RJ1, n = 63/67 genomes from Rio de Janeiro) and mid-2017 (clade RJ2, n = 4/67). We detected evidence for positive selection in non-structural proteins linked with viral replication in the RJ1 clade (clade-defining: nsP4-A481D) and the RJ2 clade (nsP1-D531G). Finally, we estimate the CHIKV-ECSA's basic reproduction number (R0) to be between 1.2 to 1.6 and show that its instantaneous reproduction number (Rt) displays a strong seasonal pattern with peaks in transmission coinciding with periods of high Aedes aegypti transmission potential. Our results highlight the need for continued genomic and epidemiological surveillance of CHIKV in Brazil, particularly during periods of high ecological suitability, and show that selective pressures underline the emergence and evolution of the large urban CHIKV-ECSA outbreak in Rio de Janeiro.

Epidemiological dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 VOC Gamma in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

The emergence and widespread circulation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variants of concern (VOCs) or interest impose an enhanced threat to global public health. In Brazil, one of the countries most severely impacted throughout the pandemic, a complex dynamics involving variants co-circulation and turnover events has been recorded with the emergence and spread of VOC Gamma in Manaus in late 2020. In this context, we present a genomic epidemiology investigation based on samples collected between December 2020 and May 2021 in the second major Brazilian metropolis, Rio de Janeiro. By sequencing 244 novel genomes through all epidemiological weeks in this period, we were able to document the introduction and rapid dissemination of VOC Gamma in the city, driving the rise of the third local epidemic wave. Molecular clock analysis indicates that this variant has circulated locally since the first weeks of 2021 and only 7 weeks were necessary for it to achieve a frequency above 70 per cent, consistent with rates of growth observed in Manaus and other states. Moreover, a Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction indicates that VOC Gamma spread throughout Brazil between December 2020 and January 2021 and that it was introduced in Rio de Janeiro through at least 13 events coming from nearly all regions of the country. Comparative analysis of reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) cycle threshold (Ct) values provides further evidence that VOC Gamma induces higher viral loads (N1 target; mean reduction of Ct: 2.7, 95 per cent confidence interval = ± 0.7). This analysis corroborates the previously proposed mechanistic basis for this variant-enhanced transmissibility and distinguished epidemiological behavior. Our results document the evolution of VOC Gamma and provide independent assessment of scenarios previously studied in Manaus, therefore contributing to the better understanding of the epidemiological dynamics currently being surveyed in other Brazilian regions.