Time series modelling and forecasting of emergency department overcrowding.

Efficient management of patient flow (demand) in emergency departments (EDs) has become an urgent issue for many hospital administrations. Today, more and more attention is being paid to hospital management systems to optimally manage patient flow and to improve management strategies, efficiency and safety in such establishments. To this end, EDs require significant human and material resources, but unfortunately these are limited. Within such a framework, the ability to accurately forecast demand in emergency departments has considerable implications for hospitals to improve resource allocation and strategic planning. The aim of this study was to develop models for forecasting daily attendances at the hospital emergency department in Lille, France. The study demonstrates how time-series analysis can be used to forecast, at least in the short term, demand for emergency services in a hospital emergency department. The forecasts were based on daily patient attendances at the paediatric emergency department in Lille regional hospital centre, France, from January 2012 to December 2012. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method was applied separately to each of the two GEMSA categories and total patient attendances. Time-series analysis was shown to provide a useful, readily available tool for forecasting emergency department demand.

Integrating hospital information systems in healthcare institutions: a mediation architecture.

Many studies have examined the integration of information systems into healthcare institutions, leading to several standards in the healthcare domain (CORBAmed: Common Object Request Broker Architecture in Medicine; HL7: Health Level Seven International; DICOM: Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine; and IHE: Integrating the Healthcare Enterprise). Due to the existence of a wide diversity of heterogeneous systems, three essential factors are necessary to fully integrate a system: data, functions and workflow. However, most of the previous studies have dealt with only one or two of these factors and this makes the system integration unsatisfactory. In this paper, we propose a flexible, scalable architecture for Hospital Information Systems (HIS). Our main purpose is to provide a practical solution to insure HIS interoperability so that healthcare institutions can communicate without being obliged to change their local information systems and without altering the tasks of the healthcare professionals. Our architecture is a mediation architecture with 3 levels: 1) a database level, 2) a middleware level and 3) a user interface level. The mediation is based on two central components: the Mediator and the Adapter. Using the XML format allows us to establish a structured, secured exchange of healthcare data. The notion of medical ontology is introduced to solve semantic conflicts and to unify the language used for the exchange. Our mediation architecture provides an effective, promising model that promotes the integration of hospital information systems that are autonomous, heterogeneous, semantically interoperable and platform-independent.