Prevalence of Immature Survival Data for Anti-Cancer Drugs Presented to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence and Impact on Decision Making.

OBJECTIVES: This research aims to explore how often the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) uses immature overall survival data to inform reimbursement decisions on cancer treatments, and the implications of this for resource allocation decisions. METHODS: NICE cancer technology appraisals published between 2015 and 2017 were reviewed to determine the prevalence of using immature survival data. A case study was used to demonstrate the potential impact of basing decisions on immature data. The economic model submitted by the company was reconstructed and was populated first using survival data available at the time of the appraisal, and then using data from an updated data cut published after the appraisal concluded. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) obtained using the different data cuts were compared. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken and expected value of perfect information estimated. RESULTS: Forty-one percent of NICE cancer technology appraisals used immature data to inform reimbursement decisions. In the case study, NICE gave a positive recommendation for a limited patient subgroup, with ICERs too high in the complete patient population. ICERs were dramatically lower when the final data cut was used, irrespective of the parametric model used to model survival. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis and expected value of perfect information may not have fully characterized uncertainty, because as they did not account for structural uncertainty. CONCLUSION: Analyses of cancer treatments using immature survival data may result in incorrect estimates of survival benefit and cost-effectiveness, potentially leading to inappropriate funding decisions. This research highlights the importance of revisiting past decisions when updated data cuts become available.

Albumin stimulates renal tubular inflammation through an HSP70-TLR4 axis in mice with early diabetic nephropathy.

Increased urinary albumin excretion is not simply an aftermath of glomerular injury, but is also involved in the progression of diabetic nephropathy (DN). Whereas Toll-like receptors (TLRs) are incriminated in the renal inflammation of DN, whether and how albumin is involved in the TLR-related renal inflammatory response remains to be clarified. Here, we showed that both TLR2 and TLR4, one of their putative endogenous ligands [heat shock protein 70 (HSP70)] and nuclear factor-κB promoter activity were markedly elevated in the kidneys of diabetic mice. A deficiency of TLR4 but not of TLR2 alleviated albuminuria, tubulointerstitial fibrosis and inflammation induced by diabetes. The protection against renal injury in diabetic Tlr4(-/-) mice was associated with reduced tubular injuries and preserved cubilin levels, rather than amelioration of glomerular lesions. In vitro studies revealed that albumin, a stronger inducer than high glucose (HG), induced the release of HSP70 from proximal tubular cells. HSP70 blockade ameliorated albumin-induced inflammatory mediators. HSP70 triggered the production of inflammatory mediators in a TLR4-dependent manner. Moreover, HSP70 inhibition in vivo ameliorated diabetes-induced albuminuria, inflammatory response and tubular injury. Finally, we found that individuals with DN had higher levels of TLR4 and HSP70 in the dilated tubules than non-diabetic controls. Thus, activation of the HSP70-TLR4 axis, stimulated at least in part by albumin, in the tubular cell is a newly identified mechanism associated with induction of tubulointerstitial inflammation and aggravation of pre-existing microalbuminuria in the progression of DN.