RESUMO
OBJECTIVES: This study sought to estimate the 2-year life expectancy (2YLE) (estimated survival rate >50% at 2 years) in patients with critical limb ischemia (CLI) using the risk score based on predictors of all-cause mortality within 2 years. BACKGROUND: It has been reported that 2YLE is one of the important factors in the decision making of the revascularization strategy. However, little is known about the probability and the prognostic factors of a 2YLE. METHOD: This study was performed as a multicenter retrospective analysis. Between March 2004 and December 2011, 995 CLI patients with follow-up period >730 days undergoing endovascular therapy (EVT) were identified and analyzed. RESULTS: Within 2 years, 412 patients (41%) died, and a cardiovascular cause accounted for 47% of deaths. On multivariate analysis, the independent prognostic factors were age 65 to 79 years (odds ratio [OR]: 1.9), 80 years of age or older (OR: 3.7), body mass index (BMI) 18.0 to 19.9 kg/m(2) (OR: 1.5), BMI <18.0 kg/m(2) (OR: 2.9), nonambulatory status (OR: 2.4), hemodialysis (OR: 2.1), cerebrovascular disease (OR: 1.6), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) of 40% to 49% (OR: 1.8), LVEF <40% (OR: 2.6), Rutherford class 5 (OR: 1.9), and Rutherford class 6 (OR: 3.4). The 2-year survival rate in each risk score was calculated based on each OR (full score: 15 points). After that, 2YLE was estimated based on the survival rate in each risk score, the probability of a 2YLE of ≥8 points indicated a <50% probability of 2-year survival. CONCLUSIONS: The independent prognostic factors for the 2YLE were age, BMI, nonambulatory status, hemodialysis, cerebrovascular disease, LVEF, and tissue loss. A 2YLE score of ≥8 points indicated a <50% probability of 2-year survival. This score seemed to be helpful for identifying CLI patients with a poor prognosis.
