Associations of individual characteristics and socioeconomic status with heated tobacco product harmfulness perceptions in Japan: A nationwide cross-sectional study (INFORM Study 2020).

IntroductionIn Japan, heated tobacco products (HTPs) are promoted by the tobacco industry as reduced-risk tobacco products despite the lack of evidence for this claim. This study determined the distribution of HTP-harmfulness perception and identify the explanatory factors associated with the perception of HTP as less harmful than conventional cigarettes.MethodsA nationwide cross-sectional survey was conducted with Japanese people aged 20 years or older (INFORM Study 2020) using a self-administered questionnaire. We performed descriptive analysis and weighted logistic regression analysis to examine the relationship between explanatory factors (e.g., individual characteristics, socioeconomic status, and trusted sources of cancer information) and the perception of HTPs as less harmful.ResultsAmong 3,420 participants (response rate: 35.2%), the proportions of those who perceived HTPs as less harmful were 40.3% and 18.3% for users and non-users of tobacco, respectively. For participants aged 20-39 years, the proportion were 49.9% and 30.4%, respectively. Among 1,160 non-tobacco users who were familiar with HTPs, male, aged under 39 years, and had lower education were associated with the perception of HTPs as less harmful. Trusted sources of cancer information were not associated with the perception of HTPs as less harmful.ConclusionsThis study showed that, among non-tobacco users, being male, aged under 39 years, and lower education were associated with a perception of HTPs as less harmful. Public health stakeholders should provide the latest evidence about HTP harmfulness in their daily practice, and strengthen the regulations on HTP marketing directed at both tobacco- and non-tobacco users.

Effect of no cost sharing for paediatric care on healthcare usage by household income levels: regression discontinuity design.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the impact of no cost sharing on paediatric care on usage and health outcomes, and whether the effect varies by household income levels. DESIGN: Regression discontinuity design. SETTING: Nationwide medical claims database in Japan. PARTICIPANTS: Children aged younger than 20 years from April 2018 to March 2022. EXPOSURE: Co-insurance rate that increases sharply from 0% to 30% at a certain age threshold (the threshold age varies between 6 and 20 years depending on region). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The outpatient care usage (outpatient visit days and healthcare spending for outpatient care) and inpatient care (experience of any hospitalisation and healthcare spending for inpatient care). RESULTS: Of 244 549 children, 49 556 participants were in the bandwidth and thus included in our analyses. Results from the regression discontinuity analysis indicate that no cost sharing was associated with a significant increase in the number of outpatient visit days (+5.26 days; 95% CI, +4.89 to +5.82; p<0.01; estimated arc price elasticity, -0.45) and in outpatient healthcare spending (+US$369; 95% CI, +US$344 to +US$406; p<0.01; arc price elasticity, -0.55). We found no evidence that no cost sharing was associated with changes in inpatient care usage. Notably, the effect of no cost-sharing policy on outpatient healthcare usage was larger among children from high-income households (visit days +5.96 days; 95% CI, +4.88 to +7.64, spending +US$511; 95% CI, +US$440 to +US$627) compared with children from low-income households (visit days +2.64 days; 95% CI, +1.54 to +4.23, spending +US$154; 95% CI, +US$80 to +US$249). CONCLUSIONS: No cost sharing for paediatric care was associated with a greater usage of outpatient care services, but did not affect inpatient care usage. The study found that this effect was more pronounced among children from high-income households, indicating that the no cost sharing disproportionately benefits high-income households and may contribute to larger disparities.

Impact of increased reimbursement for ambulance transportation on hospital acceptance in Japan: a difference-in-difference study.

OBJECTIVE: Emergency medical services (EMS) often face difficulties in finding accepting hospitals in Japan. The universal medical insurance system in Japan increased the reimbursement for ambulance transportation acceptance at night, and on Sundays and holidays from 1 April 2016. This study investigated the effect of the reimbursement increase on the number of EMS calls, and transportation time from arrival at the scene to arrival at the hospital. DESIGN: A difference-in-difference study. The treatment group consisted of people who called an ambulance at night while the control group consisted of people who called an ambulance during the daytime. SETTING: The national ambulance records of the Fire and Disaster Management Agency in Japan from 1 April 2015 to 31 December 2016. PARTICIPANTS: 7 625 463 ambulance dispatches were eligible for inclusion. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The changes in EMS calls, transportation time and the number of ambulance transports per 1000 population in one month in a comparison of daytime and night-time transport. RESULTS: The treatment effect (night-time vs daytime) on the number of EMS calls was -0.013 (95% CI, -0.023 to -0.004), which was significant. The transportation time decreased slightly by 0.080 min (95% CI, -0.157 to -0.004). No impact was observed on the number of ambulance transports per 1000 population per month (0.00; 95% CI, -0.008 to 0.002). CONCLUSION: An increase in reimbursement for ambulance transportation acceptance was associated with a decrease in the number of EMS calls. Further strategies for decreasing the number of EMS calls are needed to avoid delays in the treatment of emergency patients with critical illness.

Are hospitals with both medical/surgical and psychiatric services associated with decreased difficulty in ambulance transfer for patients with self-harm behaviour? A nationwide retrospective observational study using ambulance transfer data in Japan.

OBJECTIVES: Ambulance diversion and prolonged prehospital transfer time have a significant impact on patient care outcomes. Self-harm behaviour in particular is associated with difficulty in hospital acceptance and longer prehospital transfer time. This study aimed to determine if hospitals with both medical/surgical and psychiatric inpatient beds and high-level emergency care centres are associated with a decreased rate of difficulty in hospital acceptance and shorter prehospital transfer time for patients seeking medical care after self-harm behaviour. DESIGN AND SETTING: A retrospective observational study using the database of Japanese ambulance dispatch data in 2015. PARTICIPANTS: Patients who were transferred by ambulances after self-harm behaviour. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Multivariable logistic regression analysis and multivariable linear regression analysis were performed to assess whether the presence of hospitals with both medical/surgical and psychiatric inpatient beds and high-level emergency care centres in the city were associated with a decreased rate of difficulty in hospital acceptance and shorter prehospital transfer time. RESULTS: The number of transfers due to self-harm behaviour in 2015 was 32 849. There was an association between decreased difficulty in hospital acceptance and the presence of high-level emergency care centres (OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.71, p<0.01) and hospitals with both medical/surgical and psychiatric inpatient beds (OR 0.50, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.66, p<0.01). There was a significant reduction in prehospital transfer time in the city with high-level emergency care centres (4.21 min, 95% CI 3.53 to 4.89, p<0.01) and hospitals with medical/surgical and psychiatric inpatient beds (3.46 min, 95% CI 2.15 to 4.77, p<0.01). CONCLUSION: Hospitals with both medical/surgical and psychiatric inpatient beds and high-level emergency care centres were associated with significant decrease in difficulty in hospital acceptance and shorter prehospital transfer time.

The financial health of "swing hospitals" during the first COVID-19 outbreak.

The hospitals in Japan have hitherto had complete autonomy in deciding whether to admit COVID-19 patients. In fact, they were "swinging" between admitting or not COVID-19 patients, especially during the initial COVID-19 outbreak. To address endogenous decision making, we estimated the effect of admitting COVID-19 patients on hospital profits using instrumental variable (IV) regression. We derived the IVs from the guidelines of the national government on which hospital types should admit COVID-19 patients. Our empirical results revealed that the monthly profits per bed decreased by approximately JPY 600,000 ( ≈ USD 4615), which is 15 times the average monthly profit in 2019. This overwhelming financial damage indicates it is costly for some hospitals to treat COVID-19 patients because of their low suitability in admitting such patients. Based on the implications of our main results, we propose an alternative strategy to handling patient surges in case of new infectious disease outbreaks.

SARS-CoV-2 suppression and early closure of bars and restaurants: a longitudinal natural experiment.

Despite severe economic damage, full-service restaurants and bars have been closed in hopes of suppressing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 worldwide. This paper explores whether the early closure of restaurants and bars in February 2021 reduced symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 in Japan. Using a large-scale nationally representative longitudinal survey, we found that the early closure of restaurants and bars decreased the utilization rate among young persons (OR 0.688; CI95 0.515-0.918) and those who visited these places before the pandemic (OR 0.754; CI95 0.594-0.957). However, symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 did not decrease in these active and high-risk subpopulations. Among the more inactive and low-risk subpopulations, such as elderly persons, no discernible impacts are observed in both the utilization of restaurants and bars and the symptoms of SARS-CoV-2. These results suggest that the early closure of restaurants and bars without any other concurrent measures does not contribute to the suppression of SARS-CoV-2.

Medical expenditure after marginal cut of cash benefit among public assistance recipients in Japan: natural experimental evidence.

BACKGROUNDS: Income reduction in poor households affects healthcare demands for impoverished population. However, the impact of reduced benefits for public assistance recipients, who can use medical services for free, on healthcare costs has not been examined. We hypothesised that marginal cuts in benefits increase recipients' medical expenditure by extra demand for medical care. We tested this hypothesis using public assistance databases of Japan. METHODS: The study population comprised households in five municipalities receiving public assistance between April 2016 and September 2018. The households have a child aged 12-60 months and receive a monthly child-support income of US$150, which reduces by US$50 when the child turns 36 months of age. Our analysis comprised an age-based sharp regression-discontinuity study. RESULTS: We observed 4893 household-months (11 032 person-months). When a firstborn child reached 36 months, their frequency of outpatient visits and healthcare costs by recipients, except for the firstborn child, increased (0.45, 95% CI: 0.30 to 0.61; US$111.2, 95% CI: 20.7 to 201.7), while those of the firstborn child did not increase significantly. The monthly medical expenditure per household increased by US$248.6 (95% CI: 25.4 to 471.7). Inpatient medical costs increased significantly (US$64.3, 95% CI: 8.4 to 120.2). CONCLUSIONS: Government savings through income reduction were offset by increased medical expenditure. This may be due to recipients' behavioural change and their worsening health conditions. To prevent excessive medical expenditure, policymakers should consider how income reduction affects the behaviour and health of the impoverished population.

Factors associated with difficulty of hospital acceptance of patients suspected to have cerebrovascular diseases: A nationwide population-based observational study.

Although it is essential to shorten the interval to initial treatment in the care of acute ischemic stroke, some hospitals in Japan reject requests for hospital acceptance from on-scene emergency medical service personnel because of limited resources, which can cause delays in care. We aimed to assess the risk factors for difficulty of hospital acceptance of patients suspected to have cerebrovascular diseases. We conducted a retrospective analysis of the national ambulance records of the Fire and Disaster Management Agency in Japan in 2016. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between difficulty of hospital acceptance of patients suspected to have cerebrovascular diseases and prehospital factors. During the study period, a total of 222,926 patients were included, and 5283 patients (2.4%) experienced difficulties in hospital acceptance. In multivariable analysis, nights (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.45-1.64), weekends (AOR 1.32, 95% CI 1.24-1.40), <25 percentile ratio of emergency physicians and neurosurgeons to all physicians (AOR 1.13, 95% CI 1.03-1.23) (AOR 1.36, 95% CI 1.25-1.48), and mean age of physicians (AOR 1.06, 95% CI 1.05-1.07) were significantly associated with difficulties of hospital acceptance of patients suspected to have cerebrovascular disease. There was a marked regional variation in the difficulties of hospital acceptance. Among the national ambulance records of patients suspected to have cerebrovascular diseases, certain prehospital factors such as weekends were positively associated with difficulty of hospital acceptance. A comprehensive strategy for hospital acceptance of patients with cerebrovascular diseases considering regional variation is required.

What the COVID-19 school closure left in its wake: Evidence from a regression discontinuity analysis in Japan.

To control the spread of COVID-19, the national government of Japan abruptly started the closure of elementary schools on March 2, 2020, but preschools were exempted from this nationwide school closure. Taking advantage of this natural experiment, we examined how the proactive closure of elementary schools affected various outcomes related to children and family well-being. To identify the causal effects of the school closure, we exploited the discontinuity in the probability of going to school at a certain threshold of age in months and conducted fuzzy regression discontinuity analyses. The data are from a large-scale online survey of mothers whose firstborn children were aged 4 to 10 years. The results revealed a large increase in children's weight and in mothers' anxiety over how to raise their children. On the outcomes related to marital relationships, such as the incidence of domestic violence and the quality of marriage, we did not find statistically significant changes. These findings together suggest that school closures could have large unintended detrimental effects on non-academic outcomes among children.

Reversal pattern of health inequality: New evidence from a large-scale national survey in Japan.

Despite extensive evidence for a positive association between socio-economic status (SES) and health, some studies have shown that this well-established pattern of health inequality is reversed in Japan due to individuals of high SES working in stressful workplace environments. High-SES workers in Japan generally belong to a lifetime employment system (LES) in large companies. Thus, in this study, individuals who had been working for a single company for several decades at the time of a 2005 survey (LES workers) were compared with other workers by logistic regression and ordinary least squares regression. These analyses showed that LES workers had 36% more household savings. However, despite their relatively high income, the LES workers were more likely to develop diabetes (odds ratio 1.134: 95% CI 1.022-1.259) and hyperlipidemia (odds ratio 1.184: 95% CI 1.079-1.300). Among women, LES workers were at higher risk of developing cancer (odds ratio 1.570: 95% CI 1.174-2.098). In addition, these effects were consistently found in subsequent surveys between 2006 and 2015, suggesting that the LES had long-term adverse effects on health. These results taken together show that career trajectory is an important determinant of health inequality in the elderly population.

How is increased selectivity of medical school admissions associated with physicians' career choice? A Japanese experience.

BACKGROUND: During the long-lasting economic stagnation, the popularity of medical school has dramatically increased among pre-medical students in Japan. This is primarily due to the belief that medicine is generally a recession-proof career. As a result, pre-medical students today who want to enter medical school have to pass a more rigorous entrance examination than that in the 1980s. This paper explores the association between the selectivity of medical school admissions and graduates' later career choices. METHODS: A unique continuous measure of the selectivity of medical school admissions from 1980 to 2017, which is defined as the deviation value of medical schools, was merged with cross-sectional data of 122 990 physicians aged 35 to 55 years. The association between the deviation value of medical schools and various measures of physicians' career choices was explored by logistic and ordinary least square regression models. Graduates from medical schools in which the deviation value was less than 55 were compared with those from more competitive medical schools, after controlling for fixed effects for the medical school attended by binary variables. RESULTS: From 1980 to 2017, the average deviation value increased from 58.3 to 66.3, indicating a large increase in admission selectivity. Empirical results suggest that increasing selectivity of a medical school is associated with graduates having a higher probability of choosing a career in an acute hospital as well as having a lower probability of opening their own clinic and choosing a career in primary health care. Graduating from a highly competitive medical school (i.e., deviation value of more than 65) significantly increases the probability of working at typical acute hospitals such as so-called 7:1 hospitals (OR 1.665 2, 95%CI 1.444 0-1.920 4) and decreases the probability of working at primary care facilities (OR 0.602 6, 95%CI 0.441 2-0.823 0). It is also associated with graduates having a higher probability of becoming medical board certified (OR 1.294 6, 95%CI 1.108 8-1.511 4). CONCLUSION: Overall, this paper concludes that increased selectivity of medical school admissions predicts a higher quality of physicians in their own specialty, but at the same time, it is associated with a lower supply of physicians who go into primary care.

Helicobacterpylori eradication treatment for gastric carcinoma prevention in asymptomatic or dyspeptic adults: systematic review and Bayesian meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

OBJECTIVES: Recent meta-analyses of eradication therapy in Helicobacter pylori-infected adults reported significant reductions in gastric carcinoma risk. However, concerns about supporting unfocused screening and eradication programme in healthy, asymptomatic populations have arisen. We performed a systematic review and Bayesian meta-analysis to provide an accurate interpretation of randomised evidence on the preventive effectiveness of eradication therapy on gastric carcinoma risk. METHODS: We searched databases including PubMed, Cochrane Central and Embase for reference and citation tracking without language restrictions, from inception through 31 July 2018. Paired investigators independently selected randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing eradication therapy with placebo or no treatment for asymptomatic or dyspeptic H. pylori-infected adults with no previous gastric carcinoma. The main outcome was gastric carcinoma incidence; secondary outcomes included gastric carcinoma-specific, non-gastric carcinoma and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: A total of 5 population-based and 2 outpatient care-based RCTs involving 7303 adults were eligible. Eradication algorithms were heterogeneous, and unsuccessful eradication and reinfection were frequently observed. A Bayesian meta-analysis with competing risk outcomes found low-certainty evidence that eradication therapy might be more likely than control to reduce gastric carcinoma risk (HR=0.65; 95% credible interval (CrI) 0.41 to 1.0; I2 =11%). The CrIs included the null effects across the subgroup and sensitivity analyses, apart from those based on particular models that excluded two RCTs that enrolled subjects with specific histological findings only (HR=0.55; CrI 0.30 to 0.89; I2 =14%). The uncertainty of the average 41% risk reduction in gastric carcinoma-specific mortality included a clinically important mortality risk increase (HR=0.59 favouring eradication therapy; CrI 0.25 to 1.20; I2 =13%; low certainty). CONCLUSIONS: There is insufficient evidence to support or refute the effectiveness of eradication therapy in preventing gastric carcinoma in H. pylori-infected, high-risk populations. Rigorously conducted large RCTs of healthy infected adults only would provide evidence of the true efficacy of successful eradication. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42014009245.

The Dedicated Emergency Physician Model of emergency care is associated with reduced pre-hospital transportation time: A retrospective study with a nationwide database in Japan.

In Japan, the increasing number of patients needing emergency medical care due to population aging is a major public health problem. Recently, emergency medicine in Japan has seen a growth in the number of Dedicated Emergency Physician Model style departments. We aimed to determine whether there is an association between Dedicated Emergency Physician Model emergency care and pre-hospital transportation time. We conducted a secondary analysis of a Japanese national pre-hospital database from 2010 to 2014. Three regions (group 1: Urayasu city and Ichikawa city in Chiba prefecture, group 2: Kamakura city, Chigasaki city, Fujisawa city and Zushi city in Kanagawa prefecture, and group 3: Fukui city in Fukui prefecture) were evaluated as Dedicated Emergency Physician Model emergency medicine areas. We compared transportation times in these areas with all municipalities in the same prefectures, and with a nearby area using multivariate linear regression with cluster adjustment. The variables used for adjustment are the time from Emergency Medical Services activation to the scene, month, day of the month, day of the week, time of day, age, gender, type of injury, severity, and location of call. Compared with all municipalities in each prefecture there were significant reductions in pre-hospital transportation time: 4.2 minutes (95% confidence interval, 0.9 to 7.5, p<0.05) in Group 1, 6.2 minutes (95%CI, 2.9 to 9.6, p<0.01) fin Group 2 and 7.5 minutes (95%CI, 6.0 to 9.0, p<0.01) in Group 3. Compared with nearby areas, there were statistically significant reductions in transportation time in Group 1, 6.8 minutes (95%CI, 0.7 to 12.8, p<0.05) and in Group 2, 6.8 minutes (95%CI, 3.7 to 9.9, p<0.05). There was a trend for reduced transportation time in Group 3, 2.3 minutes, (5.3 to -0.6, p<0.1). Areas with a Dedicated Emergency Physician Model are associated with reduced pre-hospital transportation time.

Payment systems and hospital length of stay: a bunching-based evidence.

Despite the huge attention on the long average hospital length of stay (LOS) in Japan, there are limited empirical studies on the impacts of the payment systems on LOS. In order to shed new light on this issue, we focus on the fact that reimbursement for hospital care is linked to the number of patient bed-days, where a "day" is defined as the period from one midnight to the next. This "midnight-to-midnight" definition may incentivize health care providers to manipulate hospital acceptance times in emergency patients, as patients admitted before midnight would have an additional day for reimbursement when compared with those admitted after midnight. We test this hypothesis using administrative data of emergency transportations in Japan from 2008 to 2011 (N = 2,146,498). The results indicate that there is a significant bunching in the number of acceptances at the emergency hospital around midnight; the number heaps a few minutes before midnight, but suddenly drops just after midnight. Given that the occurrence of emergency episode is random and the density is smooth during nighttime, bunching in the number of hospital acceptances around midnight suggests that hospital care providers shift the hospital acceptance times forward by hurrying-up to accept the patients. This manipulation clearly leads to longer LOS by one bed-day. In addition, the manipulation is observed in the prefectures where private hospitals mainly provide emergency medical services, suggesting hospital ownership is associated with the manipulation of hospital acceptance time.

Political cycles in physician employment: A case of Japanese local public hospitals.

A shortage of physicians in local public hospitals is often a heated political issue. When local politicians have the authority to intervene in the management of a public hospital, they may increase the employment of physicians during election years in order to alleviate the shortage. We test this hypothesis empirically using a census of city hospitals in Japan from 2002 to 2011 (N = 4583). Our results support the hypothesis that the number of physicians increases in election years. This effect is stronger in cities with a greater population of elderly residents. We also find that physicians tend to come from university hospitals in the same region. Overall, this paper provides direct evidence of political intervention on physician employment.

Do benefits in kind or refunds affect health service utilization and health outcomes? A natural experiment from Japan.

Although the payment systems of public health insurance vary greatly across countries, we still have limited knowledge of their effects. To quantify the changes from a benefits in kind system to a refund system, we exploit the largest physician strike in Japan since the Second World War. During the strike in 1971 led by the Japan Medical Association (JMA), JMA physicians resigned as health insurance doctors, but continued to provide medical care and even health insurance treatment in some areas. This study uses the regional differences in resignation rates as a natural experiment to examine the effect of the payment method of health insurance on medical service utilization and health outcomes. In the main analysis, aggregated monthly prefectural data are used (N=46). Our estimation results indicate that if the participation rate of the strike had increased by 1% point and proxy claims were refused completely, the number of cases of insurance benefits and the total amount of insurance benefits would have decreased by 0.78% and 0.58%, respectively compared with the same month in the previous year. Moreover, the average amount of insurance benefits per claim increased since patients with relatively less serious diseases might have sought health care less often. Finally, our results suggest that the mass of resignations did not affect death rates.

Effects of reduced cost-sharing on children's health: Evidence from Japan.

Although childhood health status is widely recognized as an important determinant for future achievement and health, there are few studies on the impact of patient cost-sharing on children's health. This paper investigates whether reduced cost-sharing leads to an improvement of health status among preschool and school-age children in Japan, exploiting regional disparities in expansions of municipality-level subsidy programs for out-of-pocket expenditure. With the eligibility for this subsidy program, known as the Medical Subsidy for Children and Infants (MSCI), the coinsurance rate generally decreases from 30% or 20% to zero for outpatient health care services and drug prescriptions. In order to uncover the impact of this program, I conducted an original survey of all municipalities in Japan to understand the time-series evolution of the eligible age for the MSCI in October 2013 (weighted response rate = 75%), and the probability of being eligible for the MSCI was then calculated by the age, prefecture of residence, and year. These probabilities were matched to children's health data from the Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions from 1995 to 2010. The results show that eligibility for the MSCI improves subjective measures of health status among preschool children (n = 115,019). However, I find no such improvement among school-age children (n = 133,855). In addition, MSCI eligibility does not reduce hospitalization among either preschool or school-age children. Taken together, this study finds no discernible effects on health among school-age children, suggesting recent rapid expansions of the MSCI for this age group have not been associated with the improvement of health status.

Prediction of gastric cancer development by serum pepsinogen test and Helicobacter pylori seropositivity in Eastern Asians: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: To identify high-risk groups for gastric cancer in presumptively healthy populations, several studies have investigated the predictive ability of the pepsinogen test, H. Pylori antibodies, and a risk-prediction model based on these two tests. To investigate whether these tests accurately predict gastric cancer development, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS: PubMed and other electronic databases were searched for cohort studies published in English or Japanese from January 1985 through December 2013. Six reviewers identified eligible studies, and at least two investigators extracted data on population and study-design characteristics, quality items, and outcomes of interest. Meta-analyses were performed on non-overlapping studies. RESULTS: Nine prospective cohorts from Eastern Asia reported in 12 publications, including 33,741 asymptomatic middle-aged participants of gastric cancer screening, were eligible. For discriminating between asymptomatic adults at high and low risk of gastric cancer, the pepsinogen test (summary hazard ratio [HR], 3.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.7-4.7; I2 = 0%) and H. pylori antibodies (summary HR, 3.2; 95% CI, 2.0-5.2; I2 = 0%) were statistically significant predictors as standalone tests. Although the risk-prediction model was in general moderately accurate in separating asymptomatic adults into four risk groups (summary c-statistic, 0.71; 95% CI: 0.68-0.73; I2 = 7%), calibration seemed to be poor. The study validity was generally limited. CONCLUSIONS: The serum pepsinogen test, H. pylori antibodies, and the four-risk-group model for predicting gastric cancer development seem to have the potential to stratify middle-aged presumptively healthy adults. Future research needs to focus on comparative studies to evaluate the impact of screening programs adopting these tests. Also, validation, preferably with model updating, is necessary to see whether the current model performance is transferable to different populations.