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OBJECTIVES: Examine the: 1) relative role of hemodynamic determinants of acute kidney injury (AKI) obtained in the immediate postcardiac surgery setting compared with established risk factors, 2) their predictive value, and 3) extent mediation via central venous pressure (CVP) and mean arterial pressure (MAP). DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. The main outcome of the study was moderate to severe AKI, per kidney disease: improving global outcomes, within 14 days of surgery. SETTING: U.S. academic medical center. PATIENTS: Adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery between January 2000 and December 2019 (n = 40,426) in a single U.S.-based medical center. Pulmonary artery catheter measurements were performed at a median of 102 minutes (11, 132) following cardiopulmonary bypass discontinuation. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The median age of the cohort was 67 years (58, 75), and 33% were female; 70% had chronic hypertension, 29% had congestive heart failure, and 3% had chronic kidney disease. In a multivariable model, which included comorbidities and traditional intraoperative risk factors, CVP (p < 0.0001), heart rate (p < 0.0001), cardiac index (p < 0.0001), and MAP (p < 0.0001), were strong predictors of AKI, and superseded factors such as surgery type and cardiopulmonary bypass duration. The cardiac index had a significant interaction with heart rate (p = 0.026); a faster heart rate had a differentiating effect on the relationship of cardiac index with AKI, where a higher heart rate heightened the risk of AKI primarily in patients with low cardiac output. There was also significant interaction observed between CVP and MAP (p = 0.009); where the combination of elevated CVP and low MAP had a synergistic effect on AKI incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Hemodynamic factors measured within a few hours of surgery showed a strong association with AKI. Furthermore, determinants of kidney perfusion, namely CVP and arterial pressure are interdependent; as are constituents of stroke volume, that is, cardiac output and heart rate.
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RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Studies using a single measurement of fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF-23) suggest that elevated FGF-23 levels are associated with increased risk for requirement for kidney replacement therapy (KRT) in patients with chronic kidney disease. However, the data do not account for changes in FGF-23 levels as kidney disease progresses. STUDY DESIGN: Case-cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: To evaluate the association between serial FGF-23 levels and risk for requiring KRT, our primary analysis included 1,597 individuals in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study who had up to 5 annual measurements of carboxy-terminal FGF-23. There were 1,135 randomly selected individuals, of whom 266 initiated KRT, and 462 individuals who initiated KRT outside the random subcohort. EXPOSURE: Serial FGF-23 measurements and FGF-23 trajectory group membership. OUTCOMES: Incident KRT. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: To handle time-dependent confounding, our primary analysis of time-updated FGF-23 levels used time-varying inverse probability weighting in a discrete time failure model. To compare our results with prior data, we used baseline and time-updated FGF-23 values in weighted Cox regression models. To examine the association of FGF-23 trajectory subgroups with risk for incident KRT, we used weighted Cox models with FGF-23 trajectory groups derived from group-based trajectory modeling as the exposure. RESULTS: In our primary analysis, the HR for the KRT outcome per 1 SD increase in the mean of natural log-transformed (ln)FGF-23 in the past was 1.94 (95% CI, 1.51-2.49). In weighted Cox models using baseline and time-updated values, elevated FGF-23 level was associated with increased risk for incident KRT (HRs per 1 SD ln[FGF-23] of 1.18 [95% CI, 1.02-1.37] for baseline and 1.66 [95% CI, 1.49-1.86] for time-updated). Membership in the slowly and rapidly increasing FGF-23 trajectory groups was associated with â¼3- and â¼21-fold higher risk for incident KRT compared to membership in the stable FGF-23 trajectory group. LIMITATIONS: Residual confounding and lack of intact FGF-23 values. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing FGF-23 levels are independently associated with increased risk for incident KRT.
