Uptake, safety and effectiveness of inactivated influenza vaccine in inflammatory bowel disease: a UK-wide study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate (1) the UK-wide inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) uptake in adults with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), (2) the association between vaccination against influenza and IBD flare and (3) the effectiveness of IIV in preventing morbidity and mortality. DESIGN: Data for adults with IBD diagnosed before the 1 September 2018 were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Gold. We calculated the proportion of people vaccinated against seasonal influenza in the 2018-2019 influenza cycle. To investigate vaccine effectiveness, we calculated the propensity score (PS) for vaccination and conducted Cox proportional hazard regression with inverse-probability treatment weighting on PS. We employed self-controlled case series analysis to investigate the association between vaccination and IBD flare. RESULTS: Data for 13 631 people with IBD (50.4% male, mean age 52.9 years) were included. Fifty percent were vaccinated during the influenza cycle, while 32.1% were vaccinated on time, that is, before the seasonal influenza virus circulated in the community. IIV was associated with reduced all-cause mortality (aHR (95% CI): 0.73 (0.55,0.97) but not hospitalisation for pneumonia (aHR (95% CI) 0.52 (0.20-1.37), including in the influenza active period (aHR (95% CI) 0.48 (0.18-1.27)). Administration of the IIV was not associated with IBD flare. CONCLUSION: The uptake of influenza vaccine was low in people with IBD, and the majority were not vaccinated before influenza virus circulated in the community. Vaccination with the IIV was not associated with IBD flare. These findings add to the evidence to promote vaccination against influenza in people with IBD.

Care Coordination Between Family Physicians and Palliative Care Physicians for Patients With Cancer: Results of a Quality Improvement Initiative.

PURPOSE: At our institution's cancer palliative care (PC) clinic, new referrals from oncologists were scheduled for consultation and ongoing follow-up by PC physicians without input from the patients' family physicians (FPs). FPs reported that they felt out of the loop. We implemented a quality improvement (QI) initiative aimed at systematically facilitating care coordination between FPs and PC physicians. METHODS: A coordination toolkit was sent from the PC physician to the FP whenever the PC physician received a consultation request from an oncologist. The toolkit included an introduction to the PC physician team; an opportunity for the FP to choose how best to collaborate with PC physicians to meet the patient's PC needs; and contact information for access to 24/7 PC physician support. Responses from FPs regarding their preferred level of engagement with PC determined further care planning in the clinic. We measured feasibility, response rate, and qualitative surveys of FPs about the usefulness of the intervention. RESULTS: Two hundred fourteen new consultations were eligible for a standardized letter over the 6-month implementation period. Feasibility for sending the toolkit was 90.0% and response rate for collaborative care preference from FPs was 86.0%, with median response time of 3-4 days. 78.9% of FPs indicated they would prefer ongoing consultative care by the PC physician, while 18.6% indicated that PC physician consultation was not needed, or that the FP would provide primary PC after a one-time PC physician consultation. CONCLUSION: We successfully implemented a QI initiative to improve care coordination between FPs and PC physicians for patients with cancer. The coordination toolkit can protect the patient-FP primary PC relationship and optimize specialist PC resource utilization for complex patients.

Benralizumab in children with severe eosinophilic asthma: Pharmacokinetics and long-term safety (TATE study).

BACKGROUND: Benralizumab is an anti-interleukin-5 receptor α monoclonal antibody approved as an add-on maintenance treatment for patients with uncontrolled severe asthma. Prior Phase 3 studies have evaluated benralizumab in patients aged ≥12 years with severe uncontrolled asthma. The TATE study evaluated the pharmacokinetics (PK), pharmacodynamics (PD), and safety of benralizumab treatment in children. METHODS: TATE was an open-label, Phase 3 study of benralizumab in children aged 6-11 years from the United States and Japan (plus participants aged 12-14 years from Japan) with severe eosinophilic asthma. Participants received benralizumab 10/30 mg according to weight (<35/≥35 kg). Primary endpoints included maximum serum concentration (Cmax ), clearance, half-life (t1/2 ), and blood eosinophil count. Clearance and t1/2 were derived from a population PK (popPK) analysis. Safety and tolerability were also assessed. RESULTS: Twenty-eight children aged 6-11 years were included, with an additional two participants from Japan aged 12-14 years also included in the popPK analysis. Mean Cmax was 1901.2 and 3118.7 ng/mL in the 10 mg/<35 kg and 30 mg/≥35 kg groups, respectively. Clearance was 0.257, and mean t1/2 was 14.5 days. Near-complete depletion of blood eosinophils was shown across dose/weight groups. Exploratory efficacy analyses found numerical improvements in mean FEV1 , mean ACQ-IA, patient/clinician global impression of change, and exacerbation rates. Adverse events occurred in 22/28 (78.6%) of participants; none led to discontinuation/death. CONCLUSION: PK, PD, and safety data support long-term benralizumab in children with severe eosinophilic asthma, and were similar to findings in adolescents and adults. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov-ID: NCT04305405.

Uptake and safety of pneumococcal vaccination in adults with immune mediated inflammatory diseases: a UK wide observational study.

OBJECTIVE: The uptake and safety of pneumococcal vaccination in people with immune mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) is poorly understood. We investigated the UK wide pneumococcal vaccine uptake in adults with IMIDs and explored the association between vaccination and IMID flare. METHODS: Adults with IMIDs diagnosed on or before 01/09/2018, prescribed steroid-sparing drugs within the last 12 months and contributing data to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Gold were included. Vaccine uptake was assessed using a cross-sectional study design. Self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis investigated the association between pneumococcal vaccination and IMID flare. The SCCS observation period was up-to six-month before and after pneumococcal vaccination. This was partitioned into a 14-day pre-vaccination induction, 90-days post-vaccination exposed, and the remaining unexposed periods. RESULTS: We included 32 277 patients, 14 151 with RA, 13 631 with IBD, 3,804 with axial spondyloarthritis and 691 with SLE. Overall, 57% were vaccinated against pneumococcus. Vaccine uptake was lower in those younger than 45 years (32%), with IBD (42%), and without additional indication(s) for vaccination (46%). In the vaccine-safety study, data for 1,067, 935, and 451vaccinated patients with primary-care consultations for joint pain, AIRD flare and IBD flare respectively were included. Vaccination against pneumococcal pneumonia was not associated with primary-care consultations for joint pain, AIRD flare and IBD flare in the exposed period with incidence rate ratios (95% Confidence Interval) 0.95 (0.83-1.09), 1.05 (0.92-1.19), and 0.83 (0.65-1.06) respectively. CONCLUSION: Uptake of pneumococcal vaccination in UK patients with IMIDs was suboptimal. Vaccination against pneumococcal disease was not associated with IMID flare.

Randomized controlled trial of molnupiravir SARS-CoV-2 viral and antibody response in at-risk adult outpatients.

Viral clearance, antibody response and the mutagenic effect of molnupiravir has not been elucidated in at-risk populations. Non-hospitalised participants within 5 days of SARS-CoV-2 symptoms randomised to receive molnupiravir (n = 253) or Usual Care (n = 324) were recruited to study viral and antibody dynamics and the effect of molnupiravir on viral whole genome sequence from 1437 viral genomes. Molnupiravir accelerates viral load decline, but virus is detectable by Day 5 in most cases. At Day 14 (9 days post-treatment), molnupiravir is associated with significantly higher viral persistence and significantly lower anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody titres compared to Usual Care. Serial sequencing reveals increased mutagenesis with molnupiravir treatment. Persistence of detectable viral RNA at Day 14 in the molnupiravir group is associated with higher transition mutations following treatment cessation. Viral viability at Day 14 is similar in both groups with post-molnupiravir treated samples cultured up to 9 days post cessation of treatment. The current 5-day molnupiravir course is too short. Longer courses should be tested to reduce the risk of potentially transmissible molnupiravir-mutated variants being generated. Trial registration: ISRCTN30448031.

Cost-utility analysis of molnupiravir for high-risk, community-based adults with COVID-19: an economic evaluation of the PANORAMIC trial.

BACKGROUND: The cost-effectiveness of molnupiravir, an oral antiviral for early treatment of SARS-CoV-2, has not been established in vaccinated populations. AIM: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of molnupiravir relative to usual care alone among mainly vaccinated community-based people at higher risk of severe outcomes from COVID-19 over 6 months. DESIGN AND SETTING: An economic evaluation of the PANORAMIC trial in the UK. METHOD: A cost-utility analysis that adopted a UK NHS and personal social services perspective and a 6-month time horizon was performed using PANORAMIC trial data. Cost-effectiveness was expressed in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses assessed the impacts of uncertainty and heterogeneity. Threshold analysis explored the price for molnupiravir consistent with likely reimbursement. RESULTS: In the base-case analysis, molnupiravir had higher mean costs of £449 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 445 to 453) and higher mean QALYs of 0.0055 (95% CI = 0.0044 to 0.0067) than usual care (mean incremental cost per QALY of £81 190). Sensitivity and subgroup analyses showed similar results, except for those aged ≥75 years, with a 55% probability of being cost-effective at a £30 000 per QALY threshold. Molnupiravir would have to be priced around £147 per course to be cost-effective at a £15 000 per QALY threshold. CONCLUSION: At the current cost of £513 per course, molnupiravir is unlikely to be cost-effective relative to usual care over a 6-month time horizon among mainly vaccinated patients with COVID-19 at increased risk of adverse outcomes, except those aged ≥75 years.

Use of resuscitative endovascular balloon occlusion of the aorta (REBOA) and ultrasound-guided left stellate ganglion block to rescue out of hospital cardiac arrest due to refractory ventricular fibrillation: A case report.

Out of hospital cardiac arrest from shockable rhythms that is refractory to standard treatment is a unique challenge. Such patients can achieve neurological recovery even with long low-flow times if perfusion can somehow be restored to the heart and brain. Extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation is an effective treatment for refractory cardiac arrest if applied early and accurately, but often cannot be directly implemented by frontline providers and has strict inclusion/exclusion criteria. We present the case of a novel treatment strategy for out of hospital cardiac arrest due to refractory ventricular fibrillation utilizing Resuscitative Endovascular Balloon Occlusion of the Aorta-assisted cardiopulmonary resuscitation and intra-arrest left stellate ganglion blockade to achieve return of spontaneous circulation and eventual good neurological outcome after 101 minutes of downtime.

Effect of a 2-week interruption in methotrexate treatment on COVID-19 vaccine response in people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (VROOM study): a randomised, open label, superiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Methotrexate is the first-line treatment for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases and reduces vaccine-induced immunity. We evaluated if a 2-week interruption of methotrexate treatment immediately after COVID-19 booster vaccination improved antibody response against the S1 receptor binding domain (S1-RBD) of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and live SARS-CoV-2 neutralisation compared with uninterrupted treatment in patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases. METHOD: We did a multicentre, open-label, parallel-group, randomised, superiority trial in secondary-care rheumatology and dermatology clinics in 26 hospitals in the UK. Adults (aged ≥18 years) with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases taking methotrexate (≤25 mg per week) for at least 3 months, who had received two primary vaccine doses from the UK COVID-19 vaccination programme were eligible. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) using a centralised validated computer program, to temporarily suspend methotrexate treatment for 2 weeks immediately after COVID-19 booster vaccination or continue treatment as usual. The primary outcome was S1-RBD antibody titres 4 weeks after COVID-19 booster vaccination and was assessed masked to group assignment. All randomly assigned patients were included in primary and safety analyses. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN11442263; following a pre-planned interim analysis, recruitment was stopped early. FINDING: Between Sept 30, 2021, and March 7, 2022, we screened 685 individuals, of whom 383 were randomly assigned: to either suspend methotrexate (n=191; mean age 58·8 years [SD 12·5], 118 [62%] women and 73 [38%] men) or to continue methotrexate (n=192; mean age 59·3 years [11·9], 117 [61%] women and 75 [39%] men). At 4 weeks, the geometric mean S1-RBD antibody titre was 25 413 U/mL (95% CI 22 227-29 056) in the suspend methotrexate group and 12 326 U/mL (10 538-14 418) in the continue methotrexate group with a geometric mean ratio (GMR) of 2·08 (95% CI 1·59-2·70; p<0·0001). No intervention-related serious adverse events occurred. INTERPRETATION: 2-week interruption of methotrexate treatment in people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases enhanced antibody responses after COVID-19 booster vaccination that were sustained at 12 weeks and 26 weeks. There was a temporary increase in inflammatory disease flares, mostly self-managed. The choice to suspend methotrexate should be individualised based on disease status and vulnerability to severe outcomes from COVID-19. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Optimizing mood prior to influenza vaccination in older adults: A three-arm randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: This trial explored the psychological and immunological effects of two brief interventions, targeting improving positive mood, administered to older adults immediately prior to influenza vaccination. The primary aim was to examine whether the interventions resulted in greater positive mood compared to usual care, and if so, which was superior. Secondary outcomes included antibody responses to vaccination and feasibility of collecting clinical outcome data (e.g., respiratory infections). METHOD: Six hundred and fifty-four older adults (65-85 years) participated in a three-arm, parallel, randomized controlled trial between September 2019 and May 2020. Immediately prior to receiving an adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine (Fluad, Seqirus UK Ltd), participants viewed one of two brief (15-min) video-based positive mood interventions (one fixed content, one allowing participant choice) or received usual care. State affect was measured immediately prior to, and following, intervention exposure or usual care. Antibody responses were measured prevaccination and 4 weeks postvaccination. Clinical outcomes were extracted from primary care records for 6 months following vaccination. RESULTS: Both interventions were equally effective at improving mood prior to vaccination compared to usual care. Antibody responses were highly robust with postvaccination seroprotection rates of > 88% observed for all vaccine strains. Antibody responses did not significantly differ between groups. Clinical outcome data were feasible to collect. CONCLUSIONS: Brief psychological interventions can improve mood prior to vaccination. However, altering antibody responses to highly immunogenic adjuvanted vaccines may require more targeted or prolonged interventions. The provision of choice did not notably enhance the interventions impact on mood or antibody outcomes. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Stem Cell-Derived Cardiomyocyte-Like Cells in Myocardial Regeneration.

Myocardial infarction results in the significant loss of cardiomyocytes (CMs) due to the ischemic injury following coronary occlusion leading to impaired contractility, fibrosis, and ultimately heart failure. Stem cell therapy emerged as a promising regenerative strategy to replenish the otherwise terminally differentiated CM to restore cardiac function. Multiple strategies have been applied to successfully differentiate diverse stem cell populations into CM-like phenotypes characterized by the expression status of signature biomarkers and observable spontaneous contractions. This article discusses the current understanding and applications of various stem cell phenotypes to drive the differentiation machinery toward CM-like lineage. Impact Statement Ischemic heart disease (IHD) extensively affects a large proportion of the population worldwide. Unfortunately, current treatments for IHD are insufficient to restore cardiac effectiveness and functionality. A growing field in regenerative cardiology explores the potential for stem cell therapy following cardiovascular ischemic episodes. The thorough understanding regarding the potential and shortcomings of translational approaches to drive versatile stem cells to cardiomyocyte lineage paves the way for multiple opportunities for next-generation cardiac management.

Real world evidence for public health decision-making on vaccination policies: perspectives from an expert roundtable.

INTRODUCTION: Influenza causes significant morbidity and mortality, but influenza vaccine uptake remains below most countries' targets. Vaccine policy recommendations vary, as do procedures for reviewing and appraising the evidence. AREAS COVERED: During a series of roundtable discussions, we reviewed procedures and methodologies used by health ministries in four European countries to inform vaccine recommendations. We review the type of evidence currently recommended by each health ministry and the range of approaches toward considering randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and real-world evidence (RWE) studies when setting influenza vaccine recommendations. EXPERT OPINION: Influenza vaccine recommendations should be based on data from both RCTs and RWE studies of efficacy, effectiveness, and safety. Such data should be considered alongside health-economic, cost-effectiveness, and budgetary factors. Although RCT data are more robust and less prone to bias, well-designed RWE studies permit timely evaluation of vaccine benefits, effectiveness comparisons over multiple seasons in large populations, and detection of rare adverse events, under real-world conditions. Given the variability of vaccine effectiveness due to influenza virus mutations and increasing diversification of influenza vaccines, we argue that consideration of both RWE and RCT evidence is the best approach to more nuanced and timely updates of influenza vaccine recommendations.

Evaluation of pragmatic oxygenation measurement as a proxy for Covid-19 severity.

Choosing optimal outcome measures maximizes statistical power, accelerates discovery and improves reliability in early-phase trials. We devised and evaluated a modification to a pragmatic measure of oxygenation function, the [Formula: see text] ratio. Because of the ceiling effect in oxyhaemoglobin saturation, [Formula: see text] ratio ceases to reflect pulmonary oxygenation function at high [Formula: see text] values. We found that the correlation of [Formula: see text] with the reference standard ([Formula: see text]/[Formula: see text] ratio) improves substantially when excluding [Formula: see text] and refer to this measure as [Formula: see text]. Using observational data from 39,765 hospitalised COVID-19 patients, we demonstrate that [Formula: see text] is predictive of mortality, and compare the sample sizes required for trials using four different outcome measures. We show that a significant difference in outcome could be detected with the smallest sample size using [Formula: see text]. We demonstrate that [Formula: see text] is an effective intermediate outcome measure in COVID-19. It is a non-invasive measurement, representative of disease severity and provides greater statistical power.

Fruitful or unfruitful: strawberry and tomato specific immunoglobulin E testing at a tertiary pediatric center.

Background: Suspected strawberry and tomato (S/T) food allergy (FA) can be evaluated using specific immunoglobulin E (sIgE) testing despite its low specificity and positive predictive value. Objective: This study aims to understand ordering patterns for S/T sIgE testing and identify relevant factors to clinical decision-making. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 814 patients with sIgE testing available for strawberries (651), tomatoes (276), or both (113) from January 2012 to May 2022 at a tertiary pediatric hospital. Patient demographics, provider specialty, and reasons for testing were collected. Student's t-test and multiple regression analyses were performed to test the association between the S/T sIgE level and clinically relevant outcome (CRO) status. Fisher's exact test and general linear models were used to evaluate and compare potential predictive factors for CRO status. Results: Allergy and immunology, gastroenterology, and general pediatrics ordered most S/T sIgE testing. Testing was ordered most frequently for non-IgE-mediated gastrointestinal symptoms, mild possible IgE-mediated reactions, and eczema. Testing was most often ordered for infants and school-age children. Mean sIgE levels were higher for S/T tests resulting in a CRO when controlling for other predictor variables (p = 0.015; p = 0.002 for S/T, respectively). Only 2.2% and 5.4% of tests resulted in a CRO for S/T, and severe allergy was rare. Testing for non-IgE-mediated GI symptoms or eczema, or in non-atopic patients, yielded no CROs. Exposure and reaction history of present illness (ERH) was associated with CROs (p < 0.001; p = 0.04) with a high negative predictive value (99.5%; 100%) and low positive predictive value (11.5%; 15.0%). ERH (p < 0.001, η2 = 0.073; p = 0.009, η2 = 0.123) was a more significant predictor than the sIgE level (p = 0.002, η2 = 0.037; p = 0.212, η2 = 0.030) for CRO status. Conclusion: The diagnosis of S/T food allergy is made primarily based on clinical history. S/T sIgE testing for children and adolescents should be avoided for patients without an ERH and in the workup of non-IgE-mediated GI symptoms. Testing for eczema and non-atopic patients is likely low-yield.

Platform adaptive trial of novel antivirals for early treatment of COVID-19 In the community (PANORAMIC): protocol for a randomised, controlled, open-label, adaptive platform trial of community novel antiviral treatment of COVID-19 in people at increased risk of more severe disease.

INTRODUCTION: There is an urgent need to determine the safety, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of novel antiviral treatments for COVID-19 in vaccinated patients in the community at increased risk of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: PANORAMIC is a UK-wide, open-label, prospective, adaptive, multiarm platform, randomised clinical trial that evaluates antiviral treatments for COVID-19 in the community. A master protocol governs the addition of new antiviral treatments as they become available, and the introduction and cessation of existing interventions via interim analyses. The first two interventions to be evaluated are molnupiravir (Lagevrio) and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid). ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: community-dwelling within 5 days of onset of symptomatic COVID-19 (confirmed by PCR or lateral flow test), and either (1) aged 50 years and over, or (2) aged 18-49 years with qualifying comorbidities. Registration occurs via the trial website and by telephone. Recruitment occurs remotely through the central trial team, or in person through clinical sites. Participants are randomised to receive either usual care or a trial drug plus usual care. Outcomes are collected via a participant-completed daily electronic symptom diary for 28 days post randomisation. Participants and/or their Trial Partner are contacted by the research team after days 7, 14 and 28 if the diary is not completed, or if the participant is unable to access the diary. The primary efficacy endpoint is all-cause, non-elective hospitalisation and/or death within 28 days of randomisation. Multiple prespecified interim analyses allow interventions to be stopped for futility or superiority based on prespecified decision criteria. A prospective economic evaluation is embedded within the trial. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval granted by South Central-Berkshire REC number: 21/SC/0393; IRAS project ID: 1004274. Results will be presented to policymakers and at conferences, and published in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN30448031; EudraCT number: 2021-005748-31.

Diagnostic yield of computed tomography after non-traumatic out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

AIM: Determine the frequency with which computed tomography (CT) after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) identifies clinically important findings. METHODS: We included non-traumatic OHCA patients treated at a single center from February 2019 to February 2021. Clinical practice was to obtain CT head in comatose patients. Additionally, CT of the cervical spine, chest, abdomen, and pelvis were obtained if clinically indicated. We identified CT imaging obtained within 24 hours of emergency department (ED) arrival and summarized radiology findings. We used descriptive statistics to summarize population characteristics and imaging results, report their frequencies and, post hoc, compared time from ED arrival to catheterization between patients who did and did not undergo CT. RESULTS: We included 597 subjects, of which 491 (82.2%) had a CT obtained. Time to CT was 4.1 hours [2.8-5.7]. Most (n = 480, 80.4%) underwent CT head, of which 36 (7.5%) had intracranial hemorrhage and 161 (33.5%) had cerebral edema. Fewer subjects (230, 38.5%) underwent a cervical spine CT, and 4 (1.7%) had acute vertebral fractures. Most subjects (410, 68.7%) underwent a chest CT, and abdomen and pelvis CT (363, 60.8%). Chest CT abnormalities included rib or sternal fractures (227, 55.4%), pneumothorax (27, 6.6%), aspiration or pneumonia (309, 75.4%), mediastinal hematoma (18, 4.4%) and pulmonary embolism (6, 3.7%). Significant abdomen and pelvis findings were bowel ischemia (24, 6.6%) and solid organ laceration (7, 1.9%). Most subjects that had CT imaging deferred were awake and had shorter time to catheterization. CONCLUSIONS: CT identifies clinically important pathology after OHCA.

Risk prediction of covid-19 related death or hospital admission in adults testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection during the omicron wave in England (QCOVID4): cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To derive and validate risk prediction algorithms (QCOVID4) to estimate the risk of covid-19 related death and hospital admission in people with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result during the period when the omicron variant of the virus was predominant in England, and to evaluate performance compared with a high risk cohort from NHS Digital. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: QResearch database linked to English national data on covid-19 vaccinations, SARS-CoV-2 test results, hospital admissions, and cancer and mortality data, 11 December 2021 to 31 March 2022, with follow-up to 30 June 2022. PARTICIPANTS: 1.3 million adults in the derivation cohort and 0.15 million adults in the validation cohort, aged 18-100 years, with a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2 infection. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was covid-19 related death and secondary outcome was hospital admission for covid-19. Risk equations with predictor variables were derived from models fitted in the derivation cohort. Performance was evaluated in a separate validation cohort. RESULTS: Of 1 297 922 people with a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2 infection in the derivation cohort, 18 756 (1.5%) had a covid-19 related hospital admission and 3878 (0.3%) had a covid-19 related death during follow-up. The final QCOVID4 models included age, deprivation score and a range of health and sociodemographic factors, number of covid-19 vaccinations, and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. The risk of death related to covid-19 was lower among those who had received a covid-19 vaccine, with evidence of a dose-response relation (42% risk reduction associated with one vaccine dose and 92% reduction with four or more doses in men). Previous SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with a reduction in the risk of covid-19 related death (49% reduction in men). The QCOVID4 algorithm for covid-19 explained 76.0% (95% confidence interval 73.9% to 78.2%) of the variation in time to covid-19 related death in men with a D statistic of 3.65 (3.43 to 3.86) and Harrell's C statistic of 0.970 (0.962 to 0.979). Results were similar for women. QCOVID4 was well calibrated. QCOVID4 was substantially more efficient than the NHS Digital algorithm for correctly identifying patients at high risk of covid-19 related death. Of the 461 covid-19 related deaths in the validation cohort, 333 (72.2%) were in the QCOVID4 high risk group and 95 (20.6%) in the NHS Digital high risk group. CONCLUSION: The QCOVID4 risk algorithm, modelled from data during the period when the omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was predominant in England, now includes vaccination dose and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, and predicted covid-19 related death among people with a positive test result. QCOVID4 more accurately identified individuals at the highest levels of absolute risk for targeted interventions than the approach adopted by NHS Digital. QCOVID4 performed well and could be used for targeting treatments for covid-19 disease.

Reactogenicity, immunogenicity and breakthrough infections following heterologous or fractional second dose COVID-19 vaccination in adolescents (Com-COV3): A randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: This was the first study to investigate the reactogenicity and immunogenicity of heterologous or fractional second dose COVID-19 vaccine regimens in adolescents. METHODS: A phase II, single-blind, multi-centre, randomised-controlled trial recruited across seven UK sites from September to November 2021, with follow-up visits to August 2022. Healthy 12-to-16 years olds were randomised (1:1:1) to either 30 µg BNT162b2 (BNT-30), 10 µg BNT162b2 (BNT-10), or NVX-CoV2373 (NVX), 8 weeks after a first 30 µg dose of BNT162b2. The primary outcome was solicited systemic reactions in the week following vaccination. Secondary outcomes included immunogenicity and safety. 'Breakthrough infection' analyses were exploratory. FINDINGS: 148 participants were recruited (median age 14 years old, 62% female, 26% anti-nucleocapsid IgG seropositive pre-second dose); 132 participants received a second dose. Reactions were mostly mild-to-moderate, with lower rates in BNT-10 recipients. No vaccine-related serious adverse events occurred. Compared to BNT-30, at 28 days post-second dose anti-spike antibody responses were similar for NVX (adjusted geometric mean ratio [aGMR]) 1.09 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.84, 1.42] and lower for BNT-10 (aGMR 0.78 [95% CI: 0.61, 0.99]). For Omicron BA.1 and BA.2, the neutralising antibody titres for BNT-30 at day 28 were similar for BNT-10 (aGMR 1.0 [95% CI: 0.65, 1.54] and 1.02 [95% CI: 0.71, 1.48], respectively), but higher for NVX (aGMR 1.7 [95% CI: 1.07, 2.69] and 1.43 [95% CI: 0.96, 2.12], respectively). Compared to BNT-30, cellular immune responses were greatest for NVX (aGMR 1.73 [95% CI: 0.94, 3.18]), and lowest for BNT-10 (aGMR 0.65 [95% CI: 0.37, 1.15]) at 14 days post-second dose. Cellular responses were similar across the study arms by day 236 post-second dose. Amongst SARS-CoV-2 infection naïve participants, NVX participants had an 89% reduction in risk of self-reported 'breakthrough infection' compared to BNT-30 (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.11 [95% CI: 0.01, 0.86]) up until day 132 after second dose. BNT-10 recipients were more likely to have a 'breakthrough infection' compared to BNT-30 (aHR 2.14 [95% CI: 1.02, 4.51]) up to day 132 and day 236 post-second dose. Antibody responses at 132 and 236 days after second dose were similar for all vaccine schedules. INTERPRETATION: Heterologous and fractional dose COVID-19 vaccine schedules in adolescents are safe, well-tolerated and immunogenic. The enhanced performance of the heterologous schedule using NVX-CoV2373 against the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant suggests this mRNA prime and protein-subunit boost schedule may provide a greater breadth of protection than the licensed homologous schedule. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research and Vaccine Task Force. TRIAL REGISTRATION: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number registry: 12348322.