Development and validation of 10-year risk prediction models of cardiovascular disease in Chinese type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in primary care using interpretable machine learning-based methods.

AIM: To develop 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) managed in primary care using machine learning (ML) methods. METHODS: In this 10-year population-based retrospective cohort study, 141 516 Chinese T2DM patients aged 18 years or above, without history of CVD or end-stage renal disease and managed in public primary care clinics in 2008, were included and followed up until December 2017. Two-thirds of the patients were randomly selected to develop sex-specific CVD risk prediction models. The remaining one-third of patients were used as the validation sample to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the models. ML-based methods were applied to missing data imputation, predictor selection, risk prediction modelling, model interpretation, and model evaluation. Cox regression was used to develop the statistical models in parallel for comparison. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 9.75 years, 32 445 patients (22.9%) developed CVD. Age, T2DM duration, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), systolic blood pressure variability and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) variability were the most important predictors. ML models also identified nonlinear effects of several predictors, particularly the U-shaped effects of eGFR and body mass index. The ML models showed a Harrell's C statistic of >0.80 and good calibration. The ML models performed significantly better than the Cox regression models in CVD risk prediction and achieved better risk stratification for individual patients. CONCLUSION: Using routinely available predictors and ML-based algorithms, this study established 10-year CVD risk prediction models for Chinese T2DM patients in primary care. The findings highlight the importance of renal function indicators, and variability in both blood pressure and HbA1c as CVD predictors, which deserve more clinical attention. The derived risk prediction tools have the potential to support clinical decision making and encourage patients towards self-care, subject to further research confirming the models' feasibility, acceptability and applicability at the point of care.

Add-on astragalus in type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease: A multi-center, assessor-blind, randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes leads to chronic kidney disease (CKD) and kidney failure, requiring dialysis or transplantation. Astragalus, a common herbal medicine and US pharmacopeia-registered food ingredient, is shown kidney protective by retrospective and preclinical data but with limited long-term prospective clinical evidence. This trial aimed to assess the effectiveness of astragalus on kidney function decline in macroalbuminuric diabetic CKD patients. METHODS: This randomized, assessor-blind, standard care-controlled, multi-center clinical trial randomly assigned 118 patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 30-90 ml/min/1.73m2 and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) of 300-5000 mg/g from 7 public outpatient clinics and the community in Hong Kong between July 2018 and April 2022 to add-on oral astragalus granules (15 gs of raw herbs daily equivalent) or to continue standard care alone as control for 48 weeks. Primary outcomes were the slope of change of eGFR (used for sample size calculation) and UACR of the intention-to-treat population. Secondary outcomes included endpoint blood pressures, biochemistry, biomarkers, concomitant drug change and adverse events. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03535935) RESULTS: During the 48-week period, the estimated difference in the slope of eGFR decline was 4.6 ml/min/1.73m2 per year (95 %CI: 1.5 to 7.6, p = 0.003) slower with astragalus. For UACR, the estimated inter-group proportional difference in the slope of change was insignificant (1.14, 95 %CI: 0.85 to 1.52, p = 0.392). 117 adverse events from 31 astragalus-treated patients and 41 standard care-controlled patients were documented. The 48-week endpoint systolic blood pressure was 7.9 mmHg lower (95 %CI: -12.9 to -2.8, p = 0.003) in the astragalus-treated patients. 113 (96 %) and 107 (91 %) patients had post-randomization and endpoint primary outcome measures, respectively. CONCLUSION: In patients with type 2 diabetes, stage 2 to 3 CKD and macroalbuminuria, add-on astragalus for 48 weeks further stabilized kidney function on top of standard care.

A clinicopathological study of non-functioning pituitary neuroendocrine tumours using the World Health Organization 2022 classification.

Background: The 2022 World Health Organization (WHO) classification of pituitary neuroendocrine tumour (PitNET) supersedes the previous one in 2017 and further consolidates the role of transcription factors (TF) in the diagnosis of PitNET. Here, we investigated the clinical utility of the 2022 WHO classification, as compared to that of 2017, in a cohort of patients with non-functioning PitNET (NF-PitNET). Methods: A total of 113 NF-PitNET patients who underwent resection between 2010 and 2021, and had follow-up at Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong, were recruited. Surgical specimens were re-stained for the three TF: steroidogenic factor (SF-1), T-box family member TBX19 (TPIT) and POU class 1 homeobox 1 (Pit-1). The associations of different NF-PitNET subtypes with tumour-related outcomes were evaluated by logistic and Cox regression analyses. Results: Based on the 2022 WHO classification, the majority of NF-PitNET was SF-1-lineage tumours (58.4%), followed by TPIT-lineage tumours (18.6%), tumours with no distinct lineage (16.8%) and Pit-1-lineage tumours (6.2%). Despite fewer entities than the 2017 classification, significant differences in disease-free survival were present amongst these four subtypes (Log-rank test p=0.003), specifically between SF-1-lineage PitNET and PitNET without distinct lineage (Log-rank test p<0.001). In multivariable Cox regression analysis, the subtype of PitNET without distinct lineage (HR 3.02, 95% CI 1.28-7.16, p=0.012), together with tumour volume (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.07, p=0.017), were independent predictors of a composite of residual or recurrent disease. Conclusion: The 2022 WHO classification of PitNET is a clinically useful TF and lineage-based system for subtyping NF-PitNET with different tumour behaviour and prognosis.

Maternal diabetes and risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in offspring in a multinational cohort of 3.6 million mother-child pairs.

Previous studies report an association between maternal diabetes mellitus (MDM) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), often overlooking unmeasured confounders such as shared genetics and environmental factors. We therefore conducted a multinational cohort study with linked mother-child pairs data in Hong Kong, New Zealand, Taiwan, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden to evaluate associations between different MDM (any MDM, gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and pregestational diabetes mellitus (PGDM)) and ADHD using Cox proportional hazards regression. We included over 3.6 million mother-child pairs between 2001 and 2014 with follow-up until 2020. Children who were born to mothers with any type of diabetes during pregnancy had a higher risk of ADHD than unexposed children (pooled hazard ratio (HR) = 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.08-1.24). Higher risks of ADHD were also observed for both GDM (pooled HR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.04-1.17) and PGDM (pooled HR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.25-1.55). However, siblings with discordant exposure to GDM in pregnancy had similar risks of ADHD (pooled HR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.94-1.17), suggesting potential confounding by unmeasured, shared familial factors. Our findings indicate that there is a small-to-moderate association between MDM and ADHD, whereas the association between GDM and ADHD is unlikely to be causal. This finding contrast with previous studies, which reported substantially higher risk estimates, and underscores the need to reevaluate the precise roles of hyperglycemia and genetic factors in the relationship between MDM and ADHD.

Risk of Incident Thyroid Dysfunction in the Post-Acute Phase of COVID-19: A Population-Based Cohort Study in Hong Kong.

OBJECTIVE: The evidence of thyroid dysfunction in the post-acute phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection is limited. This study aimed to evaluate the risk of incident thyroid dysfunction in the post-acute phase of COVID-19. METHODS: This retrospective, propensity-score matched, population-based study included COVID-19 patients and non-COVID-19 individuals between January 2020 and March 2022, identified from the electronic medical records of the Hong Kong Hospital Authority. The cohort was followed up until the occurrence of outcomes, death, or 31 January 2023, whichever came first. Patients with COVID-19 were 1:1 matched to controls based on various variables. The primary outcome was a composite of thyroid dysfunction (hyperthyroidism, hypothyroidism, initiation of antithyroid drug or levothyroxine, and thyroiditis). Cox regression was employed to evaluate the risk of incident thyroid dysfunction during the post-acute phase. RESULTS: A total of 84 034 COVID-19 survivors and 84 034 matched controls were identified. Upon a median follow-up of 303 days, there was no significant increase in the risk of diagnosed thyroid dysfunction in the post-acute phase of COVID-19 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.058, 95% confidence interval 0.979-1.144, P = .154). Regarding the secondary outcomes, patients with COVID-19 did not have increased risk of hyperthyroidism (HR 1.061, P = .345), hypothyroidism (HR 1.062, P = .255), initiation of antithyroid drug (HR 1.302, P = .070), initiation of levothyroxine (HR 1.086, P = .426), or thyroiditis (P = .252). Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were largely consistent with the main analyses. CONCLUSION: Our population-based cohort study provided important reassuring data that COVID-19 was unlikely to be associated with persistent effects on thyroid function.

A Prospective 1-Year Follow-Up of Glycemic Status and C-Peptide Levels of COVID-19 Survivors with Dysglycemia in Acute COVID-19 Infection.

Background: We evaluated changes in glycemic status, over 1 year, of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) survivors with dysglycemia in acute COVID-19. Methods: COVID-19 survivors who had dysglycemia (defined by glycosylated hemoglobin [HbA1c] 5.7% to 6.4% or random glucose ≥10.0 mmol/L) in acute COVID-19 were recruited from a major COVID-19 treatment center from September to October 2020. Matched non-COVID controls were recruited from community. The 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) were performed at baseline (6 weeks after acute COVID-19) and 1 year after acute COVID-19, with HbA1c, insulin and C-peptide measurements. Progression in glycemic status was defined by progression from normoglycemia to prediabetes/diabetes, or prediabetes to diabetes. Results: Fifty-two COVID-19 survivors were recruited. Compared with non-COVID controls, they had higher C-peptide (P< 0.001) and trend towards higher homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (P=0.065). Forty-three COVID-19 survivors attended 1-year reassessment. HbA1c increased from 5.5%±0.3% to 5.7%±0.2% (P<0.001), with increases in glucose on OGTT at fasting (P=0.089), 30-minute (P=0.126), 1-hour (P=0.014), and 2-hour (P=0.165). At baseline, 19 subjects had normoglycemia, 23 had prediabetes, and one had diabetes. Over 1 year, 10 subjects (23.8%; of 42 non-diabetes subjects at baseline) had progression in glycemic status. C-peptide levels remained unchanged (P=0.835). Matsuda index decreased (P=0.007) and there was a trend of body mass index increase from 24.4±2.7 kg/m2 to 25.6±5.2 (P=0.083). Subjects with progression in glycemic status had more severe COVID-19 illness than non-progressors (P=0.030). Reassessment was not performed in the control group. Conclusion: Subjects who had dysglycemia in acute COVID-19 were characterized by insulin resistance. Over 1 year, a quarter had progression in glycemic status, especially those with more severe COVID-19. Importantly, there was no significant deterioration in insulin secretory capacity.

High-density lipoprotein in diabetes: Structural and functional relevance.

Low levels of high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) is considered a major cardiovascular risk factor. However, recent studies have suggested a more U-shaped association between HDL-C and cardiovascular disease. It has been shown that the cardioprotective effect of HDL is related to the functions of HDL particles rather than their cholesterol content. HDL particles are highly heterogeneous and have multiple functions relevant to cardiometabolic conditions including cholesterol efflux capacity, anti-oxidative, anti-inflammatory, and vasoactive properties. There are quantitative and qualitative changes in HDL as well as functional abnormalities in both type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Non-enzymatic glycation, carbamylation, oxidative stress, and systemic inflammation can modify the HDL composition and therefore the functions, especially in situations of poor glycemic control. Studies of HDL proteomics and lipidomics have provided further insights into the structure-function relationship of HDL in diabetes. Interestingly, HDL also has a pleiotropic anti-diabetic effect, improving glycemic control through improvement in insulin sensitivity and ß-cell function. Given the important role of HDL in cardiometabolic health, HDL-based therapeutics are being developed to enhance HDL functions rather than to increase HDL-C levels. Among these, recombinant HDL and small synthetic apolipoprotein A-I mimetic peptides may hold promise for preventing and treating diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

Clinical characteristics, densitometric parameters and outcomes of patients with atypical femoral fractures related to bisphosphonate treatment for osteoporosis.

PURPOSE: We described the clinical and densitometric characteristics and treatment outcomes of patients who developed atypical femoral fractures (AFF) while on bisphosphonate for osteoporosis. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study including all adults aged ≥50 years who developed AFF while on bisphosphonates between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2020, and subsequently managed in the Osteoporosis Centre at Queen Mary Hospital in Hong Kong. A control group of patients who developed fragility hip fractures while on bisphosphonates in the same period was included for comparison. We compared the clinical and densitometric characteristics between the two groups, and described the clinical outcomes for the AFF group. RESULTS: In total, 75 patients were included (AFF: n = 35; fragility hip fracture: n = 40). All were related to oral bisphosphonates. The AFF group was characterised by a longer duration of bisphosphonate use (median of 5 years), higher bone mineral density (BMD) and more acute neck-shaft angle (all p < 0.05). Following AFF, 8 patients (22.9%) did not receive any subsequent bone-active agents: due to refusal to use an injectable, or BMD out of osteoporotic range. Most of those who received bone-active agents were given teriparatide, followed by raloxifene, and achieved stable BMD. However, subsequent fragility risk remained high. Nonetheless, AFF did not confer excess morbidity and mortality. CONCLUSION: AFF was characterised by usually long duration of bisphosphonate use, higher BMD and more acute neck-shaft angle. AFF did not confer significant impairment in mobility or mortality. Nonetheless, further research work is necessary to optimise bone health among patients who develop AFF.

Serum thrombospondin-2 level changes with liver stiffness improvement in patients with type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: Baseline circulating thrombospondin-2 (TSP2) level was identified as a potential novel hepatic fibrosis biomarker that associates with development and progression of hepatic fibrosis in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and type 2 diabetes. Here, we investigated whether circulating TSP2 levels changed with improvement in liver stiffness (LS), which reflects liver fibrosis on transient elastography. DESIGN: Serum TSP2 levels were measured in participants from a randomized, open-label intervention study, at baseline and after 24-weeks treatment of either dapagliflozin 10 mg (N = 30) or sitagliptin 100 mg daily (N = 30). Vibration-controlled transient elastography was performed to evaluate the severity of hepatic fibrosis and steatosis using LS and controlled attenuation parameter (CAP), respectively. PATIENTS AND MEASUREMENTS: Among all 60 participants with similar clinical characteristics at baseline (mean HbA1c 8.9%, CAP 289 dB/m and LS 5.8 kPa), despite similar HbA1c lowering, treatment with dapagliflozin, but not sitagliptin, led to significant improvements in body weight (BW) (p = .012), CAP (p = .015) and LS (p = .011) after 24 weeks. RESULTS: Serum TSP2 level decreased significantly from baseline in dapagliflozin-treated participants (p = .035), whereas no significant change was observed with sitagliptin. In correlation analysis, change in serum TSP2 levels only positively correlated with change in LS (r = .487, p = .006), but not with changes in BW, CAP or HbA1c after dapagliflozin treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Serum TSP2 level decreased with LS after dapagliflozin treatment, and was independent of improvements in BW, glycemic control and hepatic steatosis, further supporting the potential of serum TSP2 level as a novel hepatic fibrosis biomarker in type 2 diabetes.

Cushing's syndrome caused by ACTH precursors secreted from a pancreatic yolk sac tumor in an adult-a case report and literature review.

Here, we report the first adult case of pancreatic yolk sac tumor with ectopic adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) syndrome. The patient was a 27-year-old woman presenting with abdominal distension, Cushingoid features, and hyperpigmentation. Endogenous Cushing's syndrome was biochemically confirmed. The ACTH level was in the normal range, which raised the suspicion of ACTH precursor-dependent disease. Elevated ACTH precursors were detected, supporting the diagnosis of ectopic ACTH syndrome. Functional imaging followed by tissue sampling revealed a pancreatic yolk sac tumor. The final diagnosis was Cushing's syndrome due to a yolk sac tumor. The patient received a steroidogenesis inhibitor and subsequent bilateral adrenalectomy for control of hypercortisolism. Her yolk sac tumor was treated with chemotherapy and targeted therapy. Cushing's syndrome secondary to a yolk sac tumor is extremely rare. This case illustrated the utility of ACTH precursor measurement in confirming an ACTH-related pathology and distinguishing an ectopic from a pituitary source for Cushing's syndrome.

Illicit drug use is associated with lower bone mineral density and bone strength.

Objectives: To evaluate the association of illicit drug use with bone mineral density (BMD) and hip geometric parameters at the narrow neck. Methods: This is a cross-sectional matched cohort study conducted in the Hong Kong Chinese population. Associations with illicit drug use were estimated using linear regression for BMD (lumbar spine and femoral neck) and hip geometrical parameters (cross-sectional area [CSA], cross-sectional moment of inertia [CSMI], section modulus [SM], average cortical thickness [ACT] and BMD at the narrow neck) after adjusting for age, body mass index (BMI), smoking status, drinking status, physical activity, and history of antipsychotic and antidepressant use. Mean difference and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated between 108 illicit drug users and 108 controls using an adjusted linear model and cluster-robust standard errors after matching by age and sex. The false discovery rate was used to correct for multiple testing. Results: Illicit drug users had a significantly lower BMD (g/cm2) at the lumbar spine (mean difference: -0.062; 95% CI: -0.108 to -0.015), and femoral neck (mean difference: -0.058; 95% CI: -0.106 to -0.010) in the fully adjusted model. Illicit drug users also had a significantly lower CSA (mean difference: -0.238 cm2; 95% CI: -0.462 to -0.013), ACT (mean difference: -0.018 cm; 95% CI: -0.030 to -0.006) and BMD (mean difference: -0.070 g/cm2; 95% CI: -0.128 to -0.012) at the narrow neck. Conclusions: Illicit drug use is associated with lower BMD and bone strength. Future studies evaluating the risk of illicit drug use with fragility fracture are warranted.

Association of Bone Mineral Density and Bone Turnover Markers with the Risk of Diabetes: Hong Kong Osteoporosis Study and Mendelian Randomization.

Preclinical studies demonstrated that bone plays a central role in energy metabolism. However, how bone metabolism is related to the risk of diabetes in humans is unknown. We investigated the association of bone health (bone mineral density [BMD] and bone turnover markers) with incident type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) based on the Hong Kong Osteoporosis Study (HKOS). A total of 993 and 7160 participants from the HKOS were studied for the cross-sectional and prospective analyses, respectively. The cross-sectional study evaluated the association of BMD and bone biomarkers with fasting glucose and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c ) levels, whereas the prospective study examined the associations between BMD at study sites and the risk of T2DM by following subjects a median of 16.8 years. Body mass index (BMI) was adjusted in all full models. Mendelian randomization (MR) was conducted for causal inference. In the cross-sectional analysis, lower levels of circulating bone turnover markers and higher BMD were significantly associated with increased fasting glucose and HbA1c levels. In the prospective analysis, higher BMD (0.1 g/cm2 ) at the femoral neck and total hip was associated with increased risk of T2DM with hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.10 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03 to 1.18) and 1.14 (95% CI, 1.08 to 1.21), respectively. The presence of osteoporosis was associated with a 30% reduction in risk of T2DM compared to those with normal BMD (HR = 0.70; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.90). The MR results indicate a robust genetic causal association of estimated BMD (eBMD) with 2-h glucose level after an oral glucose challenge test (estimate = 0.043; 95% CI, 0.007 to 0.079) and T2DM (odds ratio = 1.064; 95% CI, 1.036 to 1.093). Higher BMD and lower levels of circulating bone biomarkers were cross-sectionally associated with poor glycemic control. Moreover, higher BMD was associated with a higher risk of incident T2DM and the association is probably causal. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Long-term effects of coronavirus disease 2019 on diabetes complications and mortality in people with diabetes: Two cohorts in the UK and Hong Kong.

AIM: To evaluate the long-term associations between coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and diabetes complications and mortality, in patients with diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: People with diabetes diagnosed with COVID-19 infection (exposed group), from 16 March 2020 to 31 May 2021 from the UK Biobank (UKB cohort; n = 2456), and from 1 April 2020 to 31 May 2022 from the electronic health records in Hong Kong (HK cohort; n = 80 546), were recruited. Each patient was randomly matched with participants with diabetes but without COVID-19 (unexposed group), based on age and sex (UKB, n = 41 801; HK, n = 391 849). Patients were followed for up to 18 months until 31 August 2021 for UKB, and up to 28 months until 15 August 2022 for HK. Characteristics between cohorts were further adjusted with Inverse Probability Treatment Weighting. Long-term association of COVID-19 with multi-organ disease complications and all-cause mortality after 21 days of diagnosis was evaluated by Cox regression. RESULTS: Compared with uninfected participants, patients with COVID-19 infection with diabetes were consistently associated with higher risks of cardiovascular diseases (coronary heart disease [CHD]: hazard ratio [HR] [UKB]: 1.6 [95% confidence interval {CI}: 1.0, 2.4], HR [HK]: 1.2 [95% CI: 1.0, 1.5]; and stroke: HR [UKB]: 2.0 [95% CI: 1.1, 3.6], HR [HK]: 1.5 [95% CI: 1.3, 1.8]), microvascular disease (end stage renal disease: HR [UKB]: 2.1 [95% CI: 1.1, 4.0], HR [HK]: 1.2 [95% CI: 1.1, 1.4]) and all-cause mortality (HR [UKB]: 4.6 [95% CI: 3.8, 5.5], HR [HK]: 2.6 [95% CI: 2.5, 2.8]), in both cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 infection is associated with long-term increased risks of diabetes complications (especially cardiovascular complications, and mortality) in people with diabetes. Monitoring for signs/symptoms of developing these long-term complications post-COVID-19 infection in the infected patient population of people with diabetes may be beneficial in minimizing their morbidity and mortality.

Incidence of diabetes following COVID-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection in Hong Kong: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The risk of incident diabetes following Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination remains to be elucidated. Also, it is unclear whether the risk of incident diabetes after Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is modified by vaccination status or differs by SARS-CoV-2 variants. We evaluated the incidence of diabetes following mRNA (BNT162b2), inactivated (CoronaVac) COVID-19 vaccines, and after SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this population-based cohort study, individuals without known diabetes were identified from an electronic health database in Hong Kong. The first cohort included people who received ≥1 dose of COVID-19 vaccine and those who did not receive any COVID-19 vaccines up to September 2021. The second cohort consisted of confirmed COVID-19 patients and people who were never infected up to March 2022. Both cohorts were followed until August 15, 2022. A total of 325,715 COVID-19 vaccine recipients (CoronaVac: 167,337; BNT162b2: 158,378) and 145,199 COVID-19 patients were 1:1 matched to their respective controls using propensity score for various baseline characteristics. We also adjusted for previous SARS-CoV-2 infection when estimating the conditional probability of receiving vaccinations, and vaccination status when estimating the conditional probability of contracting SARS-CoV-2 infection. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident diabetes were estimated using Cox regression models. In the first cohort, we identified 5,760 and 4,411 diabetes cases after receiving CoronaVac and BNT162b2 vaccines, respectively. Upon a median follow-up of 384 to 386 days, there was no evidence of increased risks of incident diabetes following CoronaVac or BNT162b2 vaccination (CoronaVac: 9.08 versus 9.10 per 100,000 person-days, HR = 0.998 [95% CI 0.962 to 1.035]; BNT162b2: 7.41 versus 8.58, HR = 0.862 [0.828 to 0.897]), regardless of diabetes type. In the second cohort, we observed 2,109 cases of diabetes following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Upon a median follow-up of 164 days, SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with significantly higher risk of incident diabetes (9.04 versus 7.38, HR = 1.225 [1.150 to 1.305])-mainly type 2 diabetes-regardless of predominant circulating variants, albeit lower with Omicron variants (p for interaction = 0.009). The number needed to harm at 6 months was 406 for 1 additional diabetes case. Subgroup analysis revealed no evidence of increased risk of incident diabetes among fully vaccinated COVID-19 survivors. Main limitations of our study included possible misclassification bias as type 1 diabetes was identified through diagnostic coding and possible residual confounders due to its observational nature. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of increased risks of incident diabetes following COVID-19 vaccination. The risk of incident diabetes increased following SARS-CoV-2 infection, mainly type 2 diabetes. The excess risk was lower, but still statistically significant, for Omicron variants. Fully vaccinated individuals might be protected from risks of incident diabetes following SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Add-on Rehmannia-6-Based Chinese Medicine in Type 2 Diabetes and CKD: A Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes is the leading cause of CKD and kidney failure. We assessed the real-world effectiveness of Rehmannia-6-based Chinese medicine treatment, the most used Chinese medicine formulation, on the change in eGFR and albuminuria in patients with diabetes and CKD with severely increased albuminuria. METHODS: In this randomized, assessor-blind, standard care-controlled, parallel, multicenter trial, 148 adult patients from outpatient clinics with type 2 diabetes, an eGFR of 30-90 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , and a urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) of 300-5000 mg/g were randomized 1:1 to a 48-week add-on protocolized Chinese medicine treatment program (using Rehmannia-6-based formulations in the granule form taken orally) or standard care alone. Primary outcomes were the slope of change in eGFR and UACR between baseline and end point (48 weeks after randomization) in the intention-to-treat population. Secondary outcomes included safety and the change in biochemistry, biomarkers, and concomitant drug use. RESULTS: The mean age, eGFR, and UACR were 65 years, 56.7 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , and 753 mg/g, respectively. Ninety-five percent ( n =141) of end point primary outcome measures were retrievable. For eGFR, the estimated slope of change was -2.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.1 to -3.9) and -4.7 (95% CI, -2.9 to -6.5) ml/min per 1.73 m 2 in participants treated with add-on Chinese medicine or standard care alone, resulting in a 2.7 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 per year (95% CI, 0.1 to 5.3; P = 0.04) less decline with Chinese medicine. For UACR, the estimated proportion in the slope of change was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.75 to 1.02) and 0.99 (95% CI, 0.85 to 1.14) in participants treated with add-on Chinese medicine or standard care alone, respectively. The intergroup proportional difference (0.89, 11% slower increment in add-on Chinese medicine, 95% CI, 0.72 to 1.10; P = 0.28) did not reach statistical significance. Eighty-five adverse events were recorded from 50 participants (add-on Chinese medicine versus control: 22 [31%] versus 28 [36%]). CONCLUSIONS: Rehmannia-6-based Chinese medicine treatment stabilized eGFR on top of standard care alone after 48 weeks in patients with type 2 diabetes, stage 2-3 CKD, and severely increased albuminuria. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY: Semi-individualized Chinese Medicine Treatment as an Adjuvant Management for Diabetic Nephropathy (SCHEMATIC), NCT02488252 .

Effect of type 2 diabetes on the inducible degrader of LDL receptor.

The inducible degrader of LDL receptor (IDOL) acts as a post-transcriptional degrader of the LDL receptor (LDLR). IDOL is functionally active in the liver and in peripheral tissues. We have evaluated IDOL expression in circulating monocytes in subjects with and without type 2 diabetes and determined whether changes in IDOL expression could affect macrophage function like cytokine production in vitro. One hundred forty individuals with type 2 diabetes and 110 healthy control subjects were recruited. Cellular expression of IDOL and LDLR in peripheral blood CD14+ monocytes was measured by flow cytometry. The expression of intracellular IDOL was lower in individuals with diabetes than control (21.3 ± 4.6 mean fluorescence intensity × 1,000 vs. 23.8 ± 6.2, P < 0.01), and this was accompanied by an increase in cell surface LDLR (5.2 ± 3.0 mean fluorescence intensity × 1,000 vs. 4.3 ± 1.5, P < 0.01), LDL binding, and intracellular lipid (P < 0.01). IDOL expression correlated with HbA1c (r = -0.38, P < 0.01) and serum fibroblast growth factor-21 (FGF21) (r = -0.34, P < 0.01). Multivariable regression analysis, including age, sex, BMI, smoking, HbA1c, and log(FGF21), showed that HbA1c and FGF21 were significant independent determinants of IDOL expression. IDOL knockdown human monocyte-derived macrophages produced higher concentrations of interleukin 1 beta, interleukin 6, and TNFα than control macrophages upon stimulation with lipopolysaccharide (all P < 0.01). In conclusion, the expression of IDOL in CD14+ monocytes was decreased in type 2 diabetes and was associated with glycemia and serum FGF21 concentration.

Development and validation of sex-specific hip fracture prediction models using electronic health records: a retrospective, population-based cohort study.

Background: Hip fracture is associated with immobility, morbidity, mortality, and high medical cost. Due to limited availability of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), hip fracture prediction models without using bone mineral density (BMD) data are essential. We aimed to develop and validate 10-year sex-specific hip fracture prediction models using electronic health records (EHR) without BMD. Methods: In this retrospective, population-based cohort study, anonymized medical records were retrieved from the Clinical Data Analysis and Reporting System for public healthcare service users in Hong Kong aged ≥60 years as of 31 December 2005. A total of 161,051 individuals (91,926 female; 69,125 male) with complete follow-up from 1 January 2006 till the study end date on 31 December 2015 were included in the derivation cohort. The sex-stratified derivation cohort was randomly divided into 80% training and 20% internal testing datasets. An independent validation cohort comprised 3046 community-dwelling participants aged ≥60 years as of 31 December 2005 from the Hong Kong Osteoporosis Study, a prospective cohort which recruited participants between 1995 and 2010. With 395 potential predictors (age, diagnosis, and drug prescription records from EHR), 10-year sex-specific hip fracture prediction models were developed using stepwise selection by logistic regression (LR) and four machine learning (ML) algorithms (gradient boosting machine, random forest, eXtreme gradient boosting, and single-layer neural networks) in the training cohort. Model performance was evaluated in both internal and independent validation cohorts. Findings: In female, the LR model had the highest AUC (0.815; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.805-0.825) and adequate calibration in internal validation. Reclassification metrics showed the LR model had better discrimination and classification performance than the ML algorithms. Similar performance was attained by the LR model in independent validation, with high AUC (0.841; 95% CI: 0.807-0.87) comparable to other ML algorithms. In internal validation for male, LR model had high AUC (0.818; 95% CI: 0.801-0.834) and it outperformed all ML models as indicated by reclassification metrics, with adequate calibration. In independent validation, the LR model had high AUC (0.898; 95% CI: 0.857-0.939) comparable to ML algorithms. Reclassification metrics demonstrated that LR model had the best discrimination performance. Interpretation: Even without using BMD data, the 10-year hip fracture prediction models developed by conventional LR had better discrimination performance than the models developed by ML algorithms. Upon further validation in independent cohorts, the LR models could be integrated into the routine clinical workflow, aiding the identification of people at high risk for DXA scan. Funding: Health and Medical Research Fund, Health Bureau, Hong Kong SAR Government (reference: 17181381).

A prospective follow-up of thyroid volume and thyroiditis features on ultrasonography among survivors of predominantly mild to moderate COVID-19.

Background: We previously showed that higher SARS-CoV-2 viral load correlated with smaller thyroid volumes among COVID-19 survivors at 2 months after acute COVID-19. Our current follow-up study evaluated the evolution of thyroid volumes and thyroiditis features within the same group of patients 6 months later. Methods: Adult COVID-19 survivors who underwent thyroid ultrasonography 2 months after infection (USG1) were recruited for follow-up USG 6 months later (USG2). The primary outcome was the change in thyroid volume. We also reassessed thyroiditis features on USG, thyroid function and anti-thyroid antibodies. Results: Fifty-four patients were recruited (mean age 48.1 years; 63% men). The mean thyroid volume increased from USG1 to USG2 (11.9 ± 4.8 to 14.5 ± 6.2 mL, p < 0.001). Thirty-two patients (59.3%) had significant increase in thyroid volume by ≥15%, and they had a median increase of +33.3% (IQR: +20.0% to +45.0%). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that only higher baseline SARS-CoV-2 viral load independently correlated with significant thyroid volume increase on USG2 (p = 0.022). Among the seven patients with thyroiditis features on USG1, six (85.7%) had the features resolved on USG2. None had new thyroiditis features on USG2. All abnormal thyroid function during acute COVID-19 resolved upon USG1 and USG2. Conclusion: Most COVID-19 survivors had an increase in thyroid volume from early convalescent phase to later convalescent phase. This increase correlated with high initial SARS-CoV-2 viral load. Together with the resolution of thyroiditis features, these may suggest a transient direct atrophic effect of SARS-CoV-2 on the thyroid gland with subsequent recovery of thyroid volume and thyroiditis features.

Fracture risks associated with sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors in type 2 diabetes patients across eGFR and albuminuria categories: A population-based study in Hong Kong.

AIMS: To evaluate major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) risk among type 2 diabetes patients treated with sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) across eGFR and albuminuria categories. METHODS: A population-based cohort of type 2 diabetes patients started on SGLT2i or dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i) during 2007-2020 was identified from Hong Kong Hospital Authority database. One-to-one propensity score matching was applied to match each SGLT2i user with one DPP4i user. The primary outcomes were 180- and 365-day risks of MOF. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR). RESULTS: A total of 28,696 patients (14,348 in each group) were included. Over 180-day follow-up, MOF occurred in 25 (0.17 %) SGLT2i users and 24 (0.17 %) DPP4i users (incidence of 4.07 and 3.63/1,000 person-years, respectively). At 365 days, MOF occurred in 43 (0.30 %) SGLT2i users and 44 (0.31 %) DPP4i users (incidence of 4.16 and 3.64/1,000 person-years, respectively). Risks of MOF were comparable between two groups at both 180 days (HR = 1.13, 95 %CI 0.65-1.98, P = 0.67) and 365 days (HR = 1.15, 95 %CI 0.75-1.75, P = 0.52). Subgroup analyses were consistent across age, sex, eGFR, albuminuria, or KDIGO categories. CONCLUSIONS: Our study did not reveal a statistically significant increase in fracture risk with SGLT2i use compared with DPP4i among type 2 diabetes patients, across eGFR and albuminuria categories.