Landslide hazard cascades can trigger earthquakes.

While earthquakes are well-known to trigger surface hazards and initiate hazard cascades, whether surface hazards can instead trigger earthquakes remains underexplored. In 2018, two landslides on the Tibetan plateau created landslide-dammed lakes which subsequently breached and caused catastrophic outburst floods. Here we build an earthquake catalog using machine-learning and cross-correlation-based methods which shows there was a statistically significant increase in earthquake activity (local magnitude ≤ 2.6) as the landslide-dammed lake approached peak water level which returned to the background level after dam breach. We further find that ~90% of the seismicity occurred where Coulomb stress increased due to the combined effect of direct loading and pore pressure diffusion. The close spatial and temporal correlation between the calculated Coulomb stress increase and earthquake activity suggests that the earthquakes were triggered by these landslide hazard cascades. Finally, our Coulomb stress modeling considering the properties of landslide-dammed lakes and reservoir-induced earthquakes globally suggests that earthquake triggering by landslide-dammed lakes and similar structures may be a ubiquitous phenomenon. Therefore, we propose that earthquake-surface hazard interaction can include bidirectional triggering which should be properly accounted for during geological hazard assessment and management in mountainous regions.

A comprehensive suite of earthquake catalogues for the 2016-2017 Central Italy seismic sequence.

The protracted nature of the 2016-2017 central Italy seismic sequence, with multiple damaging earthquakes spaced over months, presented serious challenges for the duty seismologists and emergency managers as they assimilated the growing sequence to advise the local population. Uncertainty concerning where and when it was safe to occupy vulnerable structures highlighted the need for timely delivery of scientifically based understanding of the evolving hazard and risk. Seismic hazard assessment during complex sequences depends critically on up-to-date earthquake catalogues-i.e., data on locations, magnitudes, and activity of earthquakes-to characterize the ongoing seismicity and fuel earthquake forecasting models. Here we document six earthquake catalogues of this sequence that were developed using a variety of methods. The catalogues possess different levels of resolution and completeness resulting from progressive enhancements in the data availability, detection sensitivity, and hypocentral location accuracy. The catalogues range from real-time to advanced machine-learning procedures and highlight both the promises as well as the challenges of implementing advanced workflows in an operational environment.

Connecting a broad spectrum of transient slip on the San Andreas fault.

Strain accumulated on the deep extension of some faults is episodically released during transient slow-slip events, which can subsequently load the shallow seismogenic region. At the San Andreas fault, the characteristics of slow-slip events are difficult to constrain geodetically due to their small deformation signal. Slow-slip events (SSEs) are often accompanied by coincident tremor bursts composed of many low-frequency earthquakes. Here, we probabilistically estimate the spatiotemporal clustering properties of low-frequency earthquakes detected along the central San Andreas fault. We find that tremor bursts follow a power-law spatial and temporal decay similar to earthquake aftershock sequences. The low-frequency earthquake clusters reveal that the underlying slow-slip events have two modes of rupture velocity. Compared to regular earthquakes, these slow-slip events have smaller stress drop and rupture velocity but follow similar magnitude-frequency, moment-area, and moment-duration scaling. Our results connect a broad spectrum of transient fault slip that spans several orders of magnitude in rupture velocity.

The mechanism of tidal triggering of earthquakes at mid-ocean ridges.

The strong tidal triggering of mid-ocean ridge earthquakes has remained unexplained because the earthquakes occur preferentially during low tide, when normal faulting earthquakes should be inhibited. Using Axial Volcano on the Juan de Fuca ridge as an example, we show that the axial magma chamber inflates/deflates in response to tidal stresses, producing Coulomb stresses on the faults that are opposite in sign to those produced by the tides. When the magma chamber's bulk modulus is sufficiently low, the phase of tidal triggering is inverted. We find that the stress dependence of seismicity rate conforms to triggering theory over the entire tidal stress range. There is no triggering stress threshold and stress shadowing is just a continuous function of stress decrease. We find the viscous friction parameter A to be an order of magnitude smaller than laboratory measurements. The high tidal sensitivity at Axial Volcano results from the shallow earthquake depths.

Seismic constraints on caldera dynamics from the 2015 Axial Seamount eruption.

Seismic observations in volcanically active calderas are challenging. A new cabled observatory atop Axial Seamount on the Juan de Fuca ridge allows unprecedented real-time monitoring of a submarine caldera. Beginning on 24 April 2015, the seismic network captured an eruption that culminated in explosive acoustic signals where lava erupted on the seafloor. Extensive seismic activity preceding the eruption shows that inflation is accommodated by the reactivation of an outward-dipping caldera ring fault, with strong tidal triggering indicating a critically stressed system. The ring fault accommodated deflation during the eruption and provided a pathway for a dike that propagated south and north beneath the caldera's east wall. Once north of the caldera, the eruption stepped westward, and a dike propagated along the extensional north rift.

Dynamics of a seafloor-spreading episode at the East Pacific Rise.

Seafloor spreading is largely unobserved because 98 per cent of the global mid-ocean-ridge system is below the ocean surface. Our understanding of the dynamic processes that control seafloor spreading is thus inferred largely from geophysical observations of spreading events on land at Afar in East Africa and Iceland. However, these are slow-spreading centres influenced by mantle plumes. The roles of magma pressure and tectonic stress in the development of seafloor spreading are still unclear. Here we use seismic observations to show that the most recent eruption at the fast-spreading East Pacific Rise just North of the Equator initiated at a melt-rich segment about 5 kilometres long. The change in static stress then promoted almost-concurrent rupturing along at least 35 kilometres of the ridge axis, where tectonic stress had built up to a critical level, triggering magma movement. The location of impulsive seismic events indicative of lava reaching the seafloor suggests that lava subsequently erupted from multiple isolated magma lenses (reservoir chambers) with variable magma ascent rates, mostly within 48 hours. Therefore, even at magmatically robust fast-spreading ridges, a substantial portion of the spreading may be due to tectonic stress building up to a critical level rather than magma overpressure in the underlying magma lenses.