The TNM system (version 7) is the most accurate staging system for the prediction of loss of life expectancy in differentiated thyroid cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Many prognostic systems have been developed for differentiated thyroid cancer. It is unclear which one of these performs 'best'. Our aim was to compare staging systems applicable to our patient database to identify which best predicts DTC-related loss of life expectancy and DTC-specific mortality. DESIGN: Database study of patients with DTC treated in our centre between 1978 (earliest available data) up to and including 1 July 2014. All were staged in accordance with the AMES, Clinical Class, Memorial Sloan Kettering, Ohio State University, TNM versions 5 and 6/7, University of Alabama, University of Münster and qTNM systems. PATIENTS: A total of 2257 patients with differentiated thyroid cancer. MEASUREMENTS: Loss of life expectancy expressed as relative survival and thyroid cancer-specific mortality. Comparison was based on P values of univariate Cox regression analyses as well as analysis of the proportion of variance explained (PVE). RESULTS: Median available follow-up time was 7·2 years (range: 0-35·1 years). Three hundred and twenty-seven patients died, 149 of whom died of DTC. Version 7 of the TNM system was best for predicting DTC-related mortality (P = 7·1 × 10-52 ; PVE = 0·296), followed by TNM version 5 (P = 6·7 × 10-44 ; PVE = 0·255). For prediction of loss of life expectancy, version 7 of the TNM system was also best, closely followed by the Clinical Class system (P both < 2 × 10-16 ). CONCLUSIONS: The UICC/AJCC TNM system version 7 outperforms other prognostic classification systems based on extent of disease at the start of treatment both for prediction of differentiated thyroid cancer-related death and for prediction of loss life expectancy.

The number of 131I therapy courses needed to achieve complete remission is an indicator of prognosis in patients with differentiated thyroid carcinoma.

PURPOSE: To assess the risk of differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) recurrence, DTC-related mortality and life expectancy in relation to the number of courses of (131)I therapy (RIT) and cumulative (131)I activities required to achieve complete remission (CR). METHODS: The study was a database review of 1,229 patients with DTC, 333 without and 896 with CR (negative TSH-stimulated thyroglobulin and negative (131)I diagnostic whole-body scintigraphy) after one or more courses of RIT. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 9.0 years (range 0.1 - 31.8 years) after CR. Recurrence rates at 5 years, 10 years and the end of follow-up were 1.0 ± 0.3%, 4.0 ± 0.7 % and 6.2 ± 1.1 %, and DTC-related mortality was 0.1 ± 0.1%, 0.5 ± 0.3% and 3.4 ± 1.1%, respectively. Recurrence rates also increased with an increasing number of RIT courses required (p = 0.001). DTC-related mortality increased from four RIT courses. In patients with CR after one RIT course, there were no differences in recurrence or DTC-related mortality rates between low-risk and high-risk patients. In patients requiring two RIT courses these rates remain elevated in high-risk patients. Recurrence and DTC-related mortality rates were only significantly elevated in those requiring a cumulative activity over 22.2 GBq (600 mCi) from multiple RIT courses for CR. Regardless of the number of RIT courses or activity needed, life expectancy was not significantly lowered. CONCLUSION: If more than one RIT course is needed to achieve CR, higher recurrence and DTC-related mortality rates are observed, especially in high-risk patients. Patients requiring >22.2 GBq (131)I for CR should be followed in the same way as patients in whom CR is never reached as long-term mortality rates are similar.

Life expectancy is reduced in differentiated thyroid cancer patients ≥ 45 years old with extensive local tumor invasion, lateral lymph node, or distant metastases at diagnosis and normal in all other DTC patients.

OBJECTIVE: Differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) generally has a good prognosis. As yet, however, it is unclear whether life expectancy is reduced in these patients and, if so, to what extent. The aim of this study was to determine how the all-cause mortality rate in DTC patients compares to that of the general population. DESIGN: A prospective database study was conducted. PATIENTS: The study included 2011 DTC patients treated in our hospital from 1980-2011. All patients received total thyroidectomy with subsequent (131)I ablation, except for those with an isolated papillary microcarcinoma. Survival data for the general German population were obtained from the German Federal Statistics Agency and matched to our DTC population for age and sex. RESULTS: Patients who were at least 45 yr old at diagnosis and had extensive perithyroidal invasion (UICC/AJCC TNM system, 7th edition, stages IVa and IVb), lateral cervical lymph node metastases (TNM stage IVa), or distant metastases (TNM stage IVc) showed a clearly reduced life expectancy [relative cumulative survival rate (observed:expected) for stage IVc after 20 yr, 0.295; 95% confidence interval, 0.033-0.556]. In patients over 60 yr of age at diagnosis, the loss of life expectancy was (much) greater than for those aged 45-59 yr in all groups. Life expectancy was not reduced in patients with TNM stages I, II, or III (86% of patients). CONCLUSION: Life expectancy is not significantly reduced in 86% of DTC patients; only patients at least 45 yr old with extensive local invasion, lateral lymph node metastases, and/or distant metastases (TNM stages IVa, IVb, and IVc) at diagnosis showed a clearly lower life expectancy.