Youth engagement and social innovation in health in low-and-middle-income countries: Analysis of a global youth crowdsourcing open call.

Social innovation in health is a ground-up, community-engaged process that draws on the diverse strengths of local individuals to drive social change and health improvement. Social innovation may be particularly useful in low and middle-income countries to ensure effective and sustainable health solutions. The purpose of this study is to describe the findings of a global youth (18-35 years old) crowdsourcing open call on social innovations, and to identify the levels of engagement in such innovations. We organized a global crowdsourcing open call (Go Youth!) to identify and recognize youth social innovations in health and adopted both quantitative and qualitative approaches to analyze our data. For quantitative analyses, we described the socio-demographic characteristics of youth who submitted innovations. For qualitative analyses, we adopted a deductive-inductive analytic approach utilizing an adapted Hart's Ladder as a conceptual framework for our thematic analysis of participants' submissions, which comprised four levels of youth engagement: none, minimal, moderate, and substantial. The open call received 99 eligible submissions. Most participants were 23 years of age or older (90.7%), resided in LMICs (98.0%), male (64.3%), and had a bachelor's or higher degree (72.4%). Most of the submissions were written in English (93.9%), located in Africa (69.7%), and had prior implementation (60.2%). A total of 39 innovations had substantial youth engagement and qualitative data suggested that youth leadership and peer mentorship of other youth in the community were important aspects of engagement. LMIC youth developed and implemented social innovations that had evidence of impact or effectiveness in their communities, illustrating how social innovation approaches may be feasible in LMICs. More efforts should be made to identify and empower youth in these settings to spark change.

Social innovation in health training to engage researchers in resource-limited settings: process description and evaluation.

Research on social innovations in health has increased in recent years. However, little training is geared toward enhancing social innovation research capacity. Most health training for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is developed by individuals in high-income countries, disregarding LMIC researchers' wisdom and insights and the communities' needs. Our team organized a multi-phase investigation involving a series of surveys and co-creation group discussions to assess individuals' training needs that directly informed a subsequent co-created training workshop series. We conducted a Hennessy-Hicks Training Needs Assessment among the Social Innovation in Health Initiative (SIHI) network and formed a co-creation group comprising SIHI fellows to design related training workshops. We ran a final evaluation survey and analyzed the workshop series' strengths, weaknesses and threats. Descriptive and thematic analysis were employed to analyze survey data and open-ended responses. The final evaluation survey captured data from 165 learners in 35 countries, including 26 LMICs. Most participants (67.3%, 111/165) rated the training workshop series as excellent, and 30.3% (50/165) rated it as good on a five-point scale. The need for writing research grants and manuscripts was rated the highest priority. Learners were interested in community-engaged research and diversity, equity and inclusion. This workshop illustrated how co-creation could be an effective tool for developing training materials tailored for LMIC researchers. We also offer a template for conducting a needs assessment and subsequent training workshops for LMICs. The ground-up, locally developed courses may be more effective than externally developed training programs intended for LMICs.

Prosocial Interventions and Health Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Importance: Prosocial interventions encourage voluntary actions that benefit others. Community solidarity in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, expanding mutual aid programs, and health workforce issues have accelerated prosocial health interventions. Objective: To investigate the association of prosocial interventions with health outcomes in clinical trials and observational studies. Data Sources: In this systematic review and meta-analysis informed by the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions, 5 databases (MEDLINE [via PubMed], Embase, CINAHL, PsycInfo, and Scopus) were searched from database inception through February 23, 2023. The search included terms for altruism and prosocial behaviors, health outcomes, and study type. Study Selection: Included studies, determined by multiple reviewers, compared health outcomes in a prosocial intervention group with a nonintervention group. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses guideline, data extraction and synthesis captured quantitative and qualitative data. To pool data from quantitative studies, random-effects meta-analyses were used to estimate the impact of prosocial interventions. To combine data from quantitative and qualitive studies, data were transformed into qualitative narratives using meta-aggregation. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was whether prosocial interventions were associated with improved health outcomes. Barriers to and facilitators of implementation of these interventions were assessed. Results: The search identified 5229 citations; 30 studies were included in the synthesis. Studies indicated that prosocial interventions were associated with positive health outcomes for givers (17 studies [56.7]) and recipients (8 [26.7%]). Prosocial interventions included acts of kindness (12 studies [40.0%]), cash gifts (7 [23.3%]), pay-it-forward approaches (6 [20.0%]), and expressions of kindness (5 [16.7%]). Improvements were reported in depression, testing for sexually transmitted diseases, vaccine uptake, physical activity, and individual biomarkers. Data from 6 studies (20.0%) demonstrated that pay-it-forward approaches were associated with increased uptake of diagnostic tests or vaccines among vulnerable groups (moderate certainty of evidence). Data from 14 studies (46.7%) suggested that community connectedness facilitated prosocial interventions. Shared vulnerabilities among groups (eg, sexual minority individuals, older adults) may provide a context for collective mobilization to improve health in local communities. Conclusions and Relevance: This systematic review and meta-analysis found that prosocial interventions were associated with improved health outcomes among vulnerable groups and have been useful for addressing health disparities. Further research is needed to develop and evaluate prosocial interventions.

Reflex Hepatitis C Virus Viral Load Testing Following an Initial Positive Hepatitis C Virus Antibody Test: A Global Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Many people who have a positive hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody (Ab) test never receive a confirmatory HCV RNA viral load (VL) test. Reflex VL testing may help address this problem. We undertook a systematic review to evaluate the effectiveness of reflex VL testing compared with standard nonreflex approaches on outcomes across the HCV care cascade. METHODS: We searched 4 databases for studies that examined laboratory-based reflex or clinic-based reflex VL testing approaches, with or without a nonreflex comparator, and had data on the uptake of HCV RNA VL test and treatment initiation and turnaround time between Ab and VL testing. Both laboratory- and clinic-based reflex VL testing involve only a single clinic visit. Summary estimates were calculated using random-effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: Fifty-one studies were included (32 laboratory-based and 19 clinic-based reflex VL testing). Laboratory-based reflex VL testing increased HCV VL test uptake versus nonreflex testing (RR: 1.35; 95% CI: 1.16-1.58) and may improve linkage to care among people with a positive HCV RNA test (RR: 1.47; 95% CI: .81-2.67) and HCV treatment initiation (RR: 1.03; 95% CI: .46-2.32). The median time between Ab and VL test was <1 day for all laboratory-based reflex studies and 0-5 days for 13 clinic-based reflex testing. CONCLUSIONS: Laboratory-based and clinic-based HCV reflex VL testing increased uptake and reduced time to HCV VL testing and may increase HCV linkage to care. The World Health Organization now recommends reflex VL testing as an additional strategy to promote access to HCV VL testing and treatment. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42021283822.

Improving cascade outcomes for active TB: A global systematic review and meta-analysis of TB interventions.

BACKGROUND: To inform policy and implementation that can enhance prevention and improve tuberculosis (TB) care cascade outcomes, this review aimed to summarize the impact of various interventions on care cascade outcomes for active TB. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we retrieved English articles with comparator arms (like randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and before and after intervention studies) that evaluated TB interventions published from January 1970 to September 30, 2022, from Embase, CINAHL, PubMed, and the Cochrane library. Commentaries, qualitative studies, conference abstracts, studies without standard of care comparator arms, and studies that did not report quantitative results for TB care cascade outcomes were excluded. Data from studies with similar comparator arms were pooled in a random effects model, and outcomes were reported as odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) and number of studies (k). The quality of evidence was appraised using GRADE, and the study was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42018103331). Of 21,548 deduplicated studies, 144 eligible studies were included. Of 144 studies, 128 were from low/middle-income countries, 84 were RCTs, and 25 integrated TB and HIV care. Counselling and education was significantly associated with testing (OR = 8.82, 95% CI:1.71 to 45.43; I2 = 99.9%, k = 7), diagnosis (OR = 1.44, 95% CI:1.08 to 1.92; I2 = 97.6%, k = 9), linkage to care (OR = 3.10, 95% CI = 1.97 to 4.86; I2 = 0%, k = 1), cure (OR = 2.08, 95% CI:1.11 to 3.88; I2 = 76.7%, k = 4), treatment completion (OR = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.07 to 2.03; I2 = 73.1%, k = 8), and treatment success (OR = 3.24, 95% CI: 1.88 to 5.55; I2 = 75.9%, k = 5) outcomes compared to standard-of-care. Incentives, multisector collaborations, and community-based interventions were associated with at least three TB care cascade outcomes; digital interventions and mixed interventions were associated with an increased likelihood of two cascade outcomes each. These findings remained salient when studies were limited to RCTs only. Also, our study does not cover the entire care cascade as we did not measure gaps in pre-testing, pretreatment, and post-treatment outcomes (like loss to follow-up and TB recurrence). CONCLUSIONS: Among TB interventions, education and counseling, incentives, community-based interventions, and mixed interventions were associated with multiple active TB care cascade outcomes. However, cost-effectiveness and local-setting contexts should be considered when choosing such strategies due to their high heterogeneity.

Self-sampled specimens demonstrate comparable accuracy and consistency to clinician-sampled specimens for HPV detection among men who have sex with men in China.

OBJECTIVES: Despite a high risk of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection among men who have sex with men (MSM), few have ever tested. This study aimed to evaluate the feasibility and accuracy of HPV self-sampling among Chinese MSM, with the purpose of measuring the feasibility of self-sampling as an alternative in HPV testing scenarios. METHODS: Eligible participants were those who were assigned male at birth, aged 18 or above, had sex with men in the past year and had never gotten HPV vaccine. Participants followed the instructions to self-sample and were also clinician-sampled from the same anatomical sites (oral fluid, penis and rectum) in both approaches. All specimens were processed using multiplex PCR assay. The reference standard of an individual with a true positive for HPV is determined via PCR test, regardless of sampling methods. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated for each approach independently and kappa test was used to assess the consistency between the two approaches. RESULTS: Overall, 211 MSM were recruited at the local clinic from April to October 2020 in Zhuhai, China. The mean age was 31 years old. Only 3% of the participants sought help from healthcare providers during self-sampling. The prevalence of HPV was 49% (103 of 211). Clinician sampling detected 91 of 103 MSM infected with HPV, with a sensitivity of 88.3% (95% CI 80.2 to 93.6) and a specificity of 100.0% (95% CI 95.7 to 100.0). Self-sampling detected 81 of 103 MSM infected with HPV, with a sensitivity of 78.6% (95% CI 69.2 to 85.9) and a specificity of 100.0% (95% CI 95.7 to 100.0). The level of agreement was moderate between clinician sampling and self-sampling (k=0.67). CONCLUSIONS: Self-sampled HPV testing demonstrated comparable accuracy and consistency to clinician sampling among MSM in China. It holds the potential to complement sexual health services especially among key populations.

Early and Subsequent Epidemic Characteristics of COVID-19 and Their Impact on the Epidemic Size in Ethiopia.

In Ethiopia, multiple waves of the COVID-19 epidemic have been observed. So far, no studies have investigated the characteristics of the waves of epidemic waves in the country. Identifying the epidemic trend in Ethiopia will inform future prevention and control of COVID-19. This study aims to identify the early indicators and the characteristics of multiple waves of the COVID-19 epidemics and their impact on the overall epidemic size in Ethiopia. We employed the Jointpoint software to identify key epidemic characteristics in the early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic and a simple logistic growth model to identify epidemic characteristics of its subsequent waves. Among the first 100 reported cases in Ethiopia, we identified a slow-growing phase (0.37 [CI: 0.10-0.78] cases/day), which was followed by a fast-growing phase (1.18 [0.50-2.00] cases/day). The average turning point from slow to fast-growing phase was at 18 days after first reported. We identified two subsequent waves of COVID-19 in Ethiopia during 03/2020-04/2021. We estimated the number of COVID-19 cases that occurred during the second wave (157,064 cases) was >2 times more than the first (60,016 cases). The second wave's duration was longer than the first (116 vs. 96 days). As of April 30th, 2021, the overall epidemic size in Ethiopia was 794/100,000, ranging from 1,669/100,000 in the Harari region to 40/100,000 in the Somali region. The epidemic size was significantly and positively correlated with the day of the phase turning point (r = 0.750, P = 0.008), the estimated number of cases in wave one (r = 0.854, P < 0.001), and wave two (r = 0.880, P < 0.001). The second wave of COVID-19 in Ethiopia is far greater, and its duration is longer than the first. Early phase turning point and case numbers in the subsequent waves predict its overall epidemic size.

What Is the Impact of Early and Subsequent Epidemic Characteristics on the Pre-delta COVID-19 Epidemic Size in the United States?

It is still uncertain how the epidemic characteristics of COVID-19 in its early phase and subsequent waves contributed to the pre-delta epidemic size in the United States. We identified the early and subsequent characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic and the correlation between these characteristics and the pre-delta epidemic size. Most (96.1% (49/51)) of the states entered a fast-growing phase before the accumulative number of cases reached (30). The days required for the number of confirmed cases to increase from 30 to 100 was 5.6 (5.1−6.1) days. As of 31 March 2021, all 51 states experienced at least 2 waves of COVID-19 outbreaks, 23.5% (12/51) experienced 3 waves, and 15.7% (8/51) experienced 4 waves, the epidemic size of COVID-19 was 19,275−3,669,048 cases across the states. The pre-delta epidemic size was significantly correlated with the duration from 30 to 100 cases (p = 0.003, r = −0.405), the growth rate of the fast-growing phase (p = 0.012, r = 0.351), and the peak cases in the subsequent waves (K1 (p < 0.001, r = 0.794), K2 (p < 0.001, r = 0.595), K3 (p < 0.001, r = 0.977), and K4 (p = 0.002, r = 0.905)). We observed that both early and subsequent epidemic characteristics contribute to the pre-delta epidemic size of COVID-19. This identification is important to the prediction of the emerging viral infectious diseases in the primary stage.

Diagnostic Accuracy of Point-of-Care HCV Viral Load Assays for HCV Diagnosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Despite the widespread availability of curative treatment with direct-acting antivirals, a significant proportion of people with HCV remain undiagnosed and untreated. New point-of-care (PoC) HCV RNA assays that can be used in clinical settings may help expand access to testing and treatment. This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of PoC HCV viral load assays compared to laboratory-based testing. Methods: We searched three databases for studies published before May 2021 that evaluated PoC HCV RNA assays against a laboratory NAT reference standard (Prospero CRD42021269022). Random effects bivariate models were used to summarize the estimates. Stratified analyses were performed based on geographic region, population (PWID, etc.), and specimen type (serum/plasma or fingerstick; fresh or frozen). We used the GRADE approach to assess the certainty of the evidence. Results: A total of 25 studies were eligible. We evaluated five different commercially available viral load assays. The pooled sensitivity and specificity were 99% (95% CI: 98−99%) and 99% (95% CI: 99−100%), respectively. High sensitivity and specificity were observed across different assays, study settings (including LMICs and HICs), and populations. There was a small but statistically significant reduction in sensitivity for fingersticks compared to serum or plasma samples (98% vs. 100%, p < 0.05), but the specificity was similar between frozen and fresh samples. The evidence was rated as moderate-high certainty. Conclusions: PoC HCV viral load assays demonstrate excellent diagnostic performance in various settings and populations. The WHO now recommends using PoC HCV viral load assays as an additional strategy to promote access to confirmatory viral load testing and treatment.

Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses of The Interaction Between HIV Infection And COVID-19: Two Years' Evidence Summary.

Introduction: During the COVID-19 pandemic, people living with HIV (PLWH) were considered to be at risk of worse COVID-19 outcomes once infected. However, the existing evidence is inconsistent. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to compare the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, severe COVID-19 symptoms, and mortality among PLWH and patients without HIV. Method: The articles included studies published in PubMed, Medline, Embase, and Cochrane between December 1, 2019, and December 1, 2021. We included the original studies published in English focusing on observational studies assessing the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, severe COVID-19 symptoms, and mortality among PLWH. Four independent reviewers extracted data. STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology-Modified (STROBE-M) checklist was used for quality assessment. For the results with heterogeneity I2 >75%, a random-effects model was employed. Otherwise, a fixed-effects model was used. The risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, severe COVID-19 symptoms, and mortality were compared with and without HIV. Results: We included a total of 32 studies and 71,779,737 study samples, of whom 797,564 (1.11%) were PLWH. Compared with COVID-19 patients without HIV infection, PLWH had comparable risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (adjusted Risk Ratio=1.07, 95% CI: 0.53-2.16, I2 = 96%, study n=6, n=20,199,805) and risk of developing severe COVID-19 symptoms (aRR=1.06, 95% CI: 0.97-1.16, I2 = 75%, n=10, n=2,243,370). PLWH, if infected with SARS-CoV-2, were found to have an increased risk of mortality compared with people without HIV (aRR=1.30, 95% CI: 1.09-1.56, I2 = 76%, study n=16, n=71,032,659). This finding was consistent across different subgroup analyses. Conclusion: PLWH are at increased risk of COVID-19 related mortality once infected. The local health system should, on the one hand, strengthen COVID-19 prevention and clinical management among PLWH to avoid infection and, on the other hand, sustain the HIV care continuum for PLWH for HIV management.

Elevated glucose level leads to rapid COVID-19 progression and high fatality.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to identify high-risk factors for disease progression and fatality for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. METHODS: We enrolled 2433 COVID-19 patients and used LASSO regression and multivariable cause-specific Cox proportional hazard models to identify the risk factors for disease progression and fatality. RESULTS: The median time for progression from mild-to-moderate, moderate-to-severe, severe-to-critical, and critical-to-death were 3.0 (interquartile range: 1.8-5.5), 3.0 (1.0-7.0), 3.0 (1.0-8.0), and 6.5 (4.0-16.3) days, respectively. Among 1,758 mild or moderate patients at admission, 474 (27.0%) progressed to a severe or critical stage. Age above 60 years, elevated levels of blood glucose, respiratory rate, fever, chest tightness, c-reaction protein, lactate dehydrogenase, direct bilirubin, and low albumin and lymphocyte count were significant risk factors for progression. Of 675 severe or critical patients at admission, 41 (6.1%) died. Age above 74 years, elevated levels of blood glucose, fibrinogen and creatine kinase-MB, and low plateleta count were significant risk factors for fatality. Patients with elevated blood glucose level were 58% more likely to progress and 3.22 times more likely to die of COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Older age, elevated glucose level, and clinical indicators related to systemic inflammatory responses and multiple organ failures, predict both the disease progression and the fatality of COVID-19 patients.

Can self-imposed prevention measures mitigate the COVID-19 epidemic?

Yuming Guo and colleagues discuss the research by Teslya et al that highlights the importance of personal preventative measures in avoiding a second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic.

Prevalence of mutations associated with resistance to macrolides and fluoroquinolones in Mycoplasma genitalium: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Mycoplasma genitalium is now recognised as an important bacterial sexually transmitted infection. We summarised data from studies of mutations associated with macrolide and fluoroquinolone resistance in M genitalium to establish the prevalence of resistance. We also investigated temporal trends in resistance and aimed to establish the association between resistance and geographical location. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Embase, and MEDLINE for studies that included data for the prevalence of mutations associated with macrolide and fluoroquinolone resistance in M genitalium published in any language up to Jan 7, 2019. We defined prevalence as the proportion of M genitalium samples positive for key mutations associated with azithromycin resistance (23S rRNA gene, position 2058 or 2059) or moxifloxacin resistance (S83R, S83I, D87N, or D87Y in parC), or both, among all M genitalium samples that were successfully characterised. We used random-effects meta-analyses to calculate summary estimates of prevalence. Subgroup and meta-regression analyses by WHO region and time period were done. This study was registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016050370. RESULTS: Overall, 59 studies from 21 countries met the inclusion criteria for our study: 57 studies of macrolide resistance (8966 samples), 25 of fluoroquinolone resistance (4003 samples), and 22 of dual resistance to macrolides and fluoroquinolones (3280 samples). The summary prevalence of mutations associated with macrolide resistance among M genitalium samples was 35·5% (95% CI 28·8-42·5); prevalence increased from 10·0% (95% CI 2·6-20·1%) before 2010, to 51·4% (40·3-62·4%) in 2016-17 (p<0·0001). Prevalence of mutations associated with macrolide resistance was significantly greater in samples in the WHO Western Pacific and Americas regions than in those from the WHO European region. The overall prevalence of mutations associated with fluoroquinolone resistance in M genitalium samples was 7·7% (95% CI 4·5-11·4%). Prevalence did not change significantly over time, but was significantly higher in the Western Pacific region than in the European region. Overall, the prevalence of both mutations associated with macrolide resistance and those associated with fluoroquinolone resistance among M genitalium samples was 2·8% (1·3-4·7%). The prevalence of dual resistance did not change significantly over time, and did not vary significantly by geographical region. INTERPRETATION: Global surveillance and measures to optimise the efficacy of treatments-including resistance-guided strategies, new antimicrobials, and antimicrobial combination approaches-are urgently needed to ensure cure in a high proportion of M genitalium infections and to prevent further spread of resistant strains. FUNDING: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Early characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak predict the subsequent epidemic scope.

OBJECTIVES: The mostly-resolved first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in China provided a unique opportunity to investigate how the initial characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak predict its subsequent magnitude. METHODS: We collected publicly available COVID-19 epidemiological data from 436 Chinese cities from 16th January-15th March 2020. Based on 45 cities that reported >100 confirmed cases, we examined the correlation between early-stage epidemic characteristics and subsequent epidemic magnitude. RESULTS: We identified a transition point from a slow- to a fast-growing phase for COVID-19 at 5.5 (95% CI, 4.6-6.4) days after the first report, and 30 confirmed cases marked a critical threshold for this transition. The average time for the number of confirmed cases to increase from 30 to 100 (time from 30-to-100) was 6.6 (5.3-7.9) days, and the average case-fatality rate in the first 100 confirmed cases (CFR-100) was 0.8% (0.2-1.4%). The subsequent epidemic size per million population was significantly associated with both of these indicators. We predicted a ranking of epidemic size in the cities based on these two indicators and found it highly correlated with the actual classification of epidemic size. CONCLUSIONS: Early epidemic characteristics are important indicators for the size of the entire epidemic.

What Is Required to Prevent a Second Major Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 upon Lifting Quarantine in Wuhan City, China.

BACKGROUND: The Chinese government implemented a metropolitan-wide quarantine of Wuhan city on 23rd January 2020 to curb the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19. Lifting of this quarantine is imminent. We modelled the effects of two key health interventions on the epidemic when the quarantine is lifted. METHODS: We constructed a compartmental dynamic model to forecast the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic at different quarantine lifting dates and investigated the impact of different rates of public contact and facial mask usage on the epidemic. RESULTS: We projected a declining trend of the COVID-19 epidemic if the current quarantine strategy continues, and Wuhan would record the last new confirmed cases in late April 2020. At the end of the epidemic, 65,733 (45,722-99,015) individuals would be infected by the virus, among which 16,166 (11,238-24,603, 24.6%) were through public contacts, 45,996 (31,892-69,565, 69.7%) through household contact, and 3,571 (2,521-5,879, 5.5%) through hospital contacts (including 778 (553-1,154) non-COVID-19 patients and 2,786 (1,969-4,791) medical staff). A total of 2,821 (1,634-6,361) would die of COVID-19 related pneumonia in Wuhan. Early quarantine lifting on 21st March is viable only if Wuhan residents sustain a high facial mask usage of ≥85% and a pre-quarantine level public contact rate. Delaying city resumption to mid/late April would relax the requirement of facial mask usage to ≥75% at the same contact rate. CONCLUSIONS: The prevention of a second epidemic is viable after the metropolitan-wide quarantine is lifted but requires a sustaining high facial mask usage and a low public contact rate.

A Nationwide Spatiotemporal Analysis of Syphilis Over 21 Years and Implications for Prevention and Control in China.

Syphilis control programs have been scaled up due to the substantial burden in China. We analyzed syphilis incidence according to demographic, spatiotemporal, and economic factors. The increasing latent syphilis diagnoses and declining congenital syphilis suggest the effectiveness of scale-up screening. However, primary and secondary cases persist, especially in inland provinces.

Integrated approach for triple elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, hepatitis B and syphilis is highly effective and cost-effective: an economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: The Regional Framework for Triple Elimination of Mother-to-Child Transmission (EMTCT) of HIV, Hepatitis B (HBV) and Syphilis in Asia and the Pacific 2018-30 was endorsed by the Regional Committee of WHO Western Pacific in October 2017, proposing an integrated and coordinated approach to achieve elimination in an efficient, coordinated and sustainable manner. This study aims to assess the population impacts and cost-effectiveness of this integrated approach in the Cambodian context. METHODS: Based on existing frameworks for the EMTCT for each individual infection, an integrated framework that combines infection prevention procedures with routine antenatal care was constructed. Using decision tree analyses, population impacts, cost-effectiveness and the potential reduction in required resources of the integrated approach as a result of resource pooling and improvements in service coverage and coordination, were evaluated. The tool was assessed using simulated epidemiological data from Cambodia. RESULTS: The current prevention programme for 370,000 Cambodian pregnant women was estimated at USD$2.3 ($2.0-$2.5) million per year, including the duration of pregnancy and up to 18 months after delivery. A model estimate of current MTCT rates in Cambodia was 6.6% (6.2-7.1%) for HIV, 14.1% (13.1-15.2%) for HBV and 9.4% (9.0-9.8%) for syphilis. Integrating HIV and syphilis prevention into the existing antenatal care framework will reduce the total time required to provide this integrated care by 19% for health care workers and by 32% for pregnant women, resulting in a net saving of $380,000 per year for the EMTCT programme. This integrated approach reduces HIV and HBV MTCT to 6.1% (5.7-6.5%) and 13.0% (12.1-14.0%), respectively, and substantially reduces syphilis MCTC to 4.6% (4.3-5.0%). Further introduction of either antiviral treatment for pregnant women with high viral load of HBV, or hepatitis B immunoglobulin (HBIG) to exposed newborns, will increase the total cost of EMTCT to $4.4 ($3.6-$5.2) million and $3.3 ($2.7-$4.0) million per year, respectively, but substantially reduce HBV MTCT to 3.5% (3.2-3.8%) and 5.0% (4.6-5.5%), respectively. Combining both antiviral and HBIG treatments will further reduce HBV MTCT to 3.4% (3.1-3.7%) at an increased total cost of EMTCT of $4.5 ($3.7-$5.4) million per year. All these HBV intervention scenarios are highly cost-effective ($64-$114 per disability-adjusted life years averted) when the life benefits of these prevention measures are considered. CONCLUSIONS: The integrated approach, using antenatal, perinatal and postnatal care as a platform in Cambodia for triple EMTCT of HIV, HBV and syphilis, is highly cost-effective and efficient.