RESUMO
In Medellín, Colombia, homicides have been the leading cause of death since 1986. Their proportion among total deaths increased from 3.5% in 1976 to 42% in 1991 and subsequently decreased to 7% in 2006. From 1979 to 2008, there were 81,166 homicides (annual mean, 2,706). The homicide rates per 100,000 inhabitants were 44 in 1979 and 47 in 2008, with a peak of 388 in 1991. The current article analyzes homicides in 30 years (1979-2008) using a random sample of 3,414 forensic autopsy reports. The vast majority of victims were males, 92.8% (95%CI: 91.8%; 93.6%), mostly low-income young people from 27 to 33 years of age. Most homicides involved revenge, fights, or armed robberies. The study showed different periods in the homicide epidemic: the first 15 years, with a rapid increase, the second, with a steady decline until 1998, and the third, with a fluctuating but overall steep decline in the last 10 years. This long-term study on violence in Medellin opens possibilities for analyzing and identifying more consistent policies for intervention.
Assuntos
Homicídio/estatística & dados numéricos , Violência/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Causas de Morte , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Cidades/estatística & dados numéricos , Colômbia/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Política Pública , Estudos Retrospectivos , Distribuição por Sexo , Condições Sociais , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Adulto JovemRESUMO
El homicidio en Medellín, Colombia, se convirtió en la primera causa de muerte desde 1986 y su participación del total de muertes pasó de 3,5% en 1976 a 42% en 1991 y 7% en 2006. Entre 1979 y 2008 hubo 81.166 homicidios (2.706 promedio/año). La tasa de homicidios por 100.000 habitantes fue 44 en 1979 y 47 en 2008, con un máximo de 388 en 1991. Se describen características de los homicidios en 30 años, entre 1979 y 2008, por quinquenios, mediante una muestra aleatoria de 3.414 necropsias médico-legales. Los muertos fueron hombres 92.8% (IC95%: 91,8; 93,6), jóvenes con promedios de edad entre 27 y 33 años, residentes en estratos socio-económicos bajos, con predominó de los móviles ajustes de cuentas, riñas y atracos. Se evidenciaron tres periodos diferentes de la epidemia de homicidios: el primero de incremento acelerado 15 años, el segundo de descenso sostenido hasta 1998 y el tercero ondulante y descenso abrupto en los 10 últimos años. Estos resultados de larga duración de la violencia en la ciudad abren posibilidades analíticas para encontrar políticas más consistentes de intervención.
In Medellín, Colombia, homicides have been the leading cause of death since 1986. Their proportion among total deaths increased from 3.5% in 1976 to 42% in 1991 and subsequently decreased to 7% in 2006. From 1979 to 2008, there were 81,166 homicides (annual mean, 2,706). The homicide rates per 100,000 inhabitants were 44 in 1979 and 47 in 2008, with a peak of 388 in 1991. The current article analyzes homicides in 30 years (1979-2008) using a random sample of 3,414 forensic autopsy reports. The vast majority of victims were males, 92.8% (95%CI: 91.8%; 93.6%), mostly low-income young people from 27 to 33 years of age. Most homicides involved revenge, fights, or armed robberies. The study showed different periods in the homicide epidemic: the first 15 years, with a rapid increase, the second, with a steady decline until 1998, and the third, with a fluctuating but overall steep decline in the last 10 years. This long-term study on violence in Medellin opens possibilities for analyzing and identifying more consistent policies for intervention.
