RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Chronic hepatitis B infection is associated with an increased risk of cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma. Our aim is to analyze, through a mathematical model, the potential impact of anti-HBV vaccine in the long-term (that is, decades after vaccination) number of LT. METHODS: The model simulated that the prevalence of HBV infection was 0.5% and that approximately 20% of all the liver transplantation carried out in the state of São Paulo are due to HBV infection. RESULTS: The theoretical model suggests that a vaccination program that would cover 80% of the target population would reach a maximum of about 14% reduction in the LT program. CONCLUSION: Increasing the vaccination coverage against HBV in the state of São Paulo would have a relatively low impact on the number of liver transplantation. In addition, this impact would take several decades to materialize due to the long incubation period of liver failure due to HBV.
