A Scoping Review on GIS Technologies Applied to Farmed Fish Health Management.

Finfish aquaculture, one of the fastest growing intensive sectors worldwide, is threatened by numerous transmissible diseases that may have devastating impacts on its economic sustainability. This review (2010-2022) used a PRISMA extension for scoping reviews and a text mining approach to explore the extent to which geographical information systems (GIS) are used in farmed fish health management and to unveil the main GIS technologies, databases, and functions used to update the spatiotemporal data underpinning risk and predictive models in aquatic surveillance programmes. After filtering for eligibility criteria, the literature search provided 54 records, highlighting the limited use of GIS technologies for disease prevention and control, as well as the prevalence of GIS application in marine salmonid farming, especially for viruses and parasitic diseases typically associated with these species. The text mining generated five main research areas, underlining a limited range of investigated species, rearing environments, and diseases, as well as highlighting the lack of GIS-based methodologies at the core of such publications. This scoping review provides a source of information for future more detailed literature analyses and outcomes to support the development of geospatial disease spread models and expand in-field GIS technologies for the prevention and mitigation of fish disease epidemics.

Bacterial Skin Microbiota of Seabass from Aegean Fish Farms and Antibiotic Susceptibility of Psychrotrophic Pseudomonas.

Farming seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) is an essential activity in the Mediterranean basin including the Aegean Sea. The main seabass producer is Turkey accounting for 155,151 tons of production in 2021. In this study, skin swabs of seabass farmed in the Aegean Sea were analysed with regard to the isolation and identification of Pseudomonas. Bacterial microbiota of skin samples (n = 96) from 12 fish farms were investigated using next-generation sequencing (NGS) and metabarcoding analysis. The results demonstrated that Proteobacteria was the dominant bacterial phylum in all samples. At the species level, Pseudomonas lundensis was identified in all samples. Pseudomonas, Shewanella, and Flavobacterium were identified using conventional methods and a total of 46 viable (48% of all NGS+) Pseudomonas were isolated in seabass swab samples. Additionally, antibiotic susceptibility was determined according to standards of the European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing (EUCAST) and Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) in psychrotrophic Pseudomonas. Pseudomonas strains were tested for susceptibility to 11 antibiotics (piperacillin-tazobactam, gentamicin, tobramycin, amikacin, doripenem, meropenem, imipenem, levofloxacin, ciprofloxacin, norfloxacin, and tetracycline) from five different groups of antibiotics (penicillins, aminoglycosides, carbapenems, fluoroquinolones, and tetracyclines). The antibiotics chosen were not specifically linked to usage by the aquaculture industry. According to the EUCAST and CLSI, three and two Pseudomonas strains were found to be resistant to doripenem and imipenem (E-test), respectively. All strains were susceptible to piperacillin-tazobactam, amikacin, levofloxacin, and tetracycline. Our data provide insight into different bacteria that are prevalent in the skin microbiota of seabass sampled from the Aegean Sea in Turkey, and into the antibiotic resistance of psychrotrophic Pseudomonas spp.

Tenacibaculosis in Norwegian Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) cage-farmed in cold sea water is primarily associated with Tenacibaculum finnmarkense genomovar finnmarkense.

Skin conditions associated with Tenacibaculum spp. constitute a significant threat to the health and welfare of sea-farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in Norway. Fifteen presumptive tenacibaculosis outbreaks distributed along the Norwegian coast during the late winter and spring of 2018 were investigated. Bacteriological culture confirmed the presence of Tenacibaculum spp. Seventy-six isolates cultured from individual fish were selected and subjected to whole-genome sequencing and MALDI-TOF MS analysis. Average nucleotide identity and MALDI-TOF analyses confirmed the presence of T. finnmarkense and T. dicentrarchi, with further division of T. finnmarkense into genomovars (gv.) finnmarkense and ulcerans. Core genome multilocus sequence typing (cgMLST) and single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) analyses identified the presence of a genetically conserved cluster of gv. finnmarkense isolates against a background of relatively genetically diverse gv. finnmarkense and gv. ulcerans isolates in 13 of the 15 studied cases. This clustering strongly suggests a link between T. finnmarkense gv. finnmarkense and development of clinical tenacibaculosis in sea-farmed Norwegian salmon in the late winter and spring. Analysis of 25 Tenacibaculum isolates collected during the spring of 2019 from similar cases identified a similar distribution of genotypes. Low water temperatures were common to all cases, and most incidences involved relatively small fish shortly after sea transfer, suggesting that these fish are particularly predisposed to Tenacibaculum infection.

The spatiotemporal epidemiology of high pathogenicity avian influenza outbreaks in key ostrich producing areas of South Africa.

High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) has become a major focus point worldwide due to its zoonotic potential and economic effects resulting from trade restrictions and high mortality rates in poultry. Key ostrich producing provinces of South Africa have experienced three H5N2 HPAI outbreaks (2004, 2006 and 2011) and one H5N8 HPAI (2017) outbreak over the past two decades. The Klein Karoo region in the Western Cape Province, a province with a largely Mediterranean climate, is the predominant ostrich producing region in the country. Understanding the epidemiology of HPAI in ostrich producing areas is an essential first step in developing effective and efficient control measures. This study investigated the spatiotemporal patterns associated with the 2011 (H5N2) and 2017 (H5N8) HPAI outbreaks in the key ostrich producing areas of South Africa. Six hundred and nine and 340 active ostrich farms/holdings were subjected to surveillance during 2011 and 2017 respectively, with over 70 % of these farms located within five local municipalities of the study area. Forty-two and fifty-one farms were affected in the 2011 and 2017 outbreaks respectively. Both HPAI outbreaks occurred predominantly in areas of high ostrich farm density. However, the temporal occurrence, spatial and directional distributions of the outbreaks were different. The 2011 outbreak occurred earlier in the South African autumn months with a predominantly contiguous and stationary distribution, whilst the 2017 outbreak onset was during the winter with a more expansive multidirectional spatial distribution. Results suggest potential dissimilarities in the important risk factors for introduction and possible mode of spread. The 2011 outbreak pattern resembled an outbreak characterised by point introductions with the risk of introduction possibly being linked to high ostrich farm density and common management and husbandry practices in the ostrich industry. In contrast, the 2017 outbreak appeared to have a more propagating mode of transmission. The findings highlight epidemiological features of HPAI outbreak occurrence within ostrich populations that could be used to inform surveillance and control measures including targeted surveillance within high-risk spatial clusters. The study emphasizes the importance of both; implementation of a multi-pronged approach to HPAI control and the need for constant evaluation of the interaction of the host, environment and agent with each outbreak, in order to strengthen disease control.

Mapping the knowledge of the main diseases affecting sea bass and sea bream in Mediterranean.

Good knowledge on the disease situation and its impact on production is a base mechanism for designing health surveillance, risk analysis and biosecurity systems. Mediterranean marine fish farming, as any aquaculture production, is affected by various infectious diseases. However, seabass and seabream, the main produced species, are not listed as susceptible host species for the notifiable pathogens listed in the current EU legislation, which generates a lack of systematic reporting. The results presented in this study come from a survey directly to fish farms (50 hatchery and on-growing units from 10 Mediterranean countries), with data from 2015 to 2017, conducted by the H2020 project MedAID. Seabass showed a higher survival rate (85%) through a production cycle than seabream (80%) in spite of equal mortality due to pathogen infections (10%). The differences in survival may be explained by mortality 'of other causes'. Seabream and seabass have different disease profiles, and the profile is slightly different between geographical regions. Among the most important diseases, tenacibaculosis and vibriosis were identified in seabass and Sparicotyle chrysophrii (a gill fluke) and nodavirus in seabream. Correlating mortality data to management variables showed that increasing density, buying fingerlings from external sources and treatments due to disease are factors that negatively influence mortality rate. Most of the surveyed farms did not keep sufficient quality data to implement good health status reports and perform detailed impact studies, which shows the necessity of updating the current legislative framework to provide the basis for better reporting of relevant pathogens in the Mediterranean basin.

Field Evaluation of Diagnostic Test Sensitivity and Specificity for Salmonid Alphavirus (SAV) Infection and Pancreas Disease (PD) in Farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in Norway Using Bayesian Latent Class Analysis.

Salmonid alphavirus (SAV) is the OIE-listed, viral cause of pancreas disease (PD) in farmed Atlantic salmon. SAV is routinely detected by PCR-methods while typical histopathological lesions are additionally used to confirm the diagnosis. Field evaluation of diagnostic test performance is essential to ensure confidence in a test's ability to predict the infection or disease status of a target animal. For most tests used in aquaculture, characteristics like sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) at the analytical level may be known. Few tests are, however, evaluated at the diagnostic level according to the OIE standard. In the present work, we estimated diagnostic test sensitivity (DSe) and diagnostic test specificity (DSp) for five laboratory tests used for SAV detection. As there is no gold standard, the study was designed using Bayesian latent class analysis. Real-time RT-PCR, cell culture, histopathology, virus neutralization test, and immunohistochemistry were compared using samples taken from three different farmed Atlantic salmon populations with different infection status; one population regarded negative, one in an early stage of infection, and one in a later stage of infection. The average fish weight in the three populations was 2.0, 1.6, and 1.5 kg, respectively. The DSe and DSp of real-time RT-PCR is of particular interest due to its common use as a screening tool. The method showed high DSe (≥0.977) and moderate DSp (0.831) in all 3-populations models. The results further suggest that a follow-up test of serum samples in real-time RT-PCR negative populations may be prudent in cases where epidemiological information suggest a high risk of infection and where a false negative result is of high consequence. This study underlines the need to choose a test appropriate for the purpose of the testing. In the case of a weak positive PCR-result, a follow-up test should be conducted to verify the presence of SAV. Cell culture showed high DSe and DSp and may be used to verify viral presence.

Assessing the Adoption of Recommended Standards, Novel Approaches, and Best Practices for Animal Health Surveillance by Decision Makers in Europe.

Animal health surveillance is an important tool for disease mitigation and helps to promote animal health and welfare, protect human health, support efficient animal production, and enable trade. This study aimed to assess adoption of recommended standards and best practice for surveillance (including risk-based approaches) in Europe. It included scoping interviews with surveillance experts in Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, and Switzerland to gather information on knowledge acquisition, decisions and implementation of surveillance, and perceptions. This was followed by an online survey among animal health and food safety surveillance users in EU, EEA, and Schengen countries. A total of 166 responses were collected from 27 countries; 111 were eligible for analysis. A strong preference for legislation and established standards was observed, with peer-reviewed publications, conferences, symposia, and workshops to be major sources of information. The majority of respondents indicated a need for international evaluation for surveillance and implied that considerations of cost-effectiveness were essential when making a decision to adopt new surveillance standards. However, most of the respondents did not use a formal evaluation to inform the adoption of new standards or only conducted a descriptive assessment before their implementation or adaptation. Only a few respondents reported a quantitative economic evaluation despite economic efficiency being considered as a highly relevant criterion for surveillance implementation. Constraints mentioned in the adoption of new surveillance standards included insufficient time, financial and human resources, and lack of competency. Researchers aiming to achieve impact by their surveillance work are advised to consider ways of influencing binding standards and to disseminate their work pro-actively using varied channels of engagement tailored to relevant target audiences and their needs. Generally, a more formal linkage between surveillance information and disease mitigation decisions-for example, by using systematic evaluation-could help increase the economic value of surveillance efforts. Finally, a collaborative, international platform for exchange and learning on surveillance as well as co-design and dissemination of surveillance standards is recommended.

Histopathological investigation of complex gill disease in sea farmed Atlantic salmon.

Various agents including Ca. Piscichlamydia salmonis, Ca. Branchiomonas cysticola, Desmozoon lepeophtherii, Paramoeba perurans and salmon gill poxvirus may be associated with complex gill disease in Atlantic salmon. Co-infections involving two or more of these agents are common and histopathological interpretation of lesions is therefore challenging. In this study, we developed a semi-quantitative scoring system for examination of histopathological gill lesions in sea-farmed Atlantic salmon suffering from gill disease. Following qPCR analysis of gills sampled for Ca. P. salmonis, Ca. B. cysticola, D. lepeophtherii and P. perurans from 22 geographically spread outbreaks, five cases representing different infectious loads and combinations of agents were chosen for histopathological scoring. Twenty-eight histological features were evaluated and potential associations between individual pathological changes and the occurrence of individual agents studied. The inter-observer agreement in interpretation of histological parameters between the three pathologists involved, was calculated to validate robustness of the scoring scheme. Seventeen histological parameters met the criteria for inter-observer agreement analysis and were included in the calculation. The three most frequent findings were identification of subepithelial leukocytes, epithelial cell hyperplasia and mucus cell hyperplasia. While few findings could be specifically related to particular agents, necrosis in hyperplastic lesions, pustules and necrosis of subepithelial cells appeared to be associated with the presence of Ca. B. cysticola. Further, lesion profiles clearly support the previously identified association between P. perurans and pathological changes associated with AGD. Very few pathological changes were observed in the single case in which Ca. P. salmonis was the dominating agent. Some lesions were only very rarely observed e.g. chloride cell necrosis, epithelial cell apoptosis, lamellar deposition of melanin and haemophagocytosis. The scoring scheme developed and applied was robust and sensitive. A less extensive scheme for routine diagnostic use is proposed.

A stochastic network-based model to simulate the spread of pancreas disease (PD) in the Norwegian salmon industry based on the observed vessel movements and seaway distance between marine farms.

Pancreas disease (PD) is a viral disease of economic importance affecting farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) and rainbow trout (Oncorhyncus mykiss (Walbaum)) in the seawater phase in Ireland, Norway and Scotland. In this study we used a stochastic network-based disease spread model to better understand the role of vessel movements and nearby seaway distance on PD spread in marine farms. We used five different edge's definitions and weights for the network construction: high-risk vessel movements, high-risk wellboat movements and high-risk nearby seaway distance at <20 km, <10 km or <5 km, respectively. Models were used to simulate PD spread in marine farms as well as to simulate the spread of marine SAV2 and SAV3 subtypes independently and results were compared with the observed PD, marine SAV2 and SAV3 cases in Norway in 2016. Results revealed that the model that provided the best fit of the observed data and, therefore, the one considered more biologically plausible, was the one using high-risk wellboat movements. The marine SAV2, SAV3 and PD models using wellboat movements were able to correctly simulate the farms status (PD positive or PD negative) with the sensitivity of 84%, 85%, 84% and Specificity of 98%, 97% and 94%, respectively. These results should contribute to inform more cost-effective prevention and control policies to mitigate PD spread and to improve the sustainability and long-term profitability of the salmon industry in Norway.

Routine clinical inspections in Norwegian marine salmonid sites: A key role in surveillance for freedom from pathogenic viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS).

Since the mid-1980s, clinical inspections of aquaculture sites carried out on a regular basis by authorized veterinarians and fish health biologists (known as fish health services: FHS) have been an essential part of aquatic animal health surveillance in Norway. The aims of the present study were (1) to evaluate the performance of FHS routine clinical inspections for the detection of VHS and (2) to explore the effectiveness of risk-based prioritisation of FHS inspections for demonstrating freedom from VHS in marine salmonid sites in Norway. A stochastic simulation model was developed to estimate site sensitivity (SeS), population sensitivity (SeP), and probability of freedom (PFree). The estimation of SeS takes into consideration the probability that FHS submit samples if a site is infected, the probability that a sample is tested if submitted, the effective probability of infection in fish with clinical signs, laboratory test sensitivity, and the number of tested samples. SeP and PFree were estimated on a monthly basis over a 12 month period for six alternative surveillance scenarios and included the risk factors: region, species, area production density, and biosecurity level. Model results indicate that the current surveillance system, based on routine inspections by the FHS has a high capability for detecting VHS and that there is a high probability of freedom from VHS in Norwegian marine farmed salmonids (PFree >95%). Sensitivity analysis identified the probabilities that samples are submitted and submitted samples are tested, as the most influential input variables. The model provides a supporting tool for evaluation of potential changes in the surveillance strategy, and can be viewed as a platform for similar exotic viral infectious diseases in marine salmonid farming in Norway, if they share similar risk factors.

Adverse effects of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection on growth performance of Norwegian pigs - a longitudinal study at a boar testing station.

BACKGROUND: Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection in Norwegian pigs was largely subclinical. This study tested the hypothesis that the infection causes negligible impact on pigs' growth performance in terms of feed conversion efficiency, daily feed intake, daily growth, age on reaching 100 kg bodyweight and overall feed intake. A sample of 1955 pigs originating from 43 breeding herds was classified into five infection status groups; seronegative pigs (n = 887); seropositive pigs (n = 874); pigs positive for virus at bodyweight between 33 kg and 60 kg (n = 123); pigs positive for virus at bodyweight between 61 kg and 80 kg (n = 34) and pigs positive for virus at bodyweight between 81 kg and 100 kg (n = 37). Each pig had daily recordings of feed intake and bodyweight from 33 kg to 100 kg. Marginal effects of the virus infection on the outcomes were estimated by multi-level linear regression, which accounted for known fixed effects (breed, birthdate, average daily feed intake and growth phase) and random effects (cluster effects of pig and herd). RESULTS: The seropositive and virus positive pigs had decreased (P value<0.05) growth performance compared to seronegative pigs even though feed intake was not decreased. Reduced feed conversion efficiency led to lower average daily growth, additional feed requirement and longer time needed to reach the 100 kg bodyweight. The effects were more marked (P value<0.03) in pigs infected at a younger age and lasted a longer period. Despite increased feed intake observed, their growth rates were lower and they took more time to reach 100 kg bodyweight compared to the seronegative pigs. CONCLUSION: Our study rejected the null hypothesis that the virus infection had negligible adverse effects on growth performance of Norwegian pigs.

Laboratory assessment of sensitive molecular tools for detection of low levels of Echinococcus multilocularis-eggs in fox (Vulpes vulpes) faeces.

BACKGROUND: In endemic areas with very low infection prevalence, the frequency and intensity of Echinococcus multilocularis can be extremely low. This necessitates efficient, specific and sensitive molecular tools. We wanted to compare the existing molecular tools, used in the Norwegian national surveillance programme, and compare these with new techniques for detection of this zoonotic pathogen in fox faeces. Here we present the results of screening samples containing a known level of E. multilocularis eggs with two highly sensitive DNA isolation and extraction methods combined with one conventional PCR and three real-time PCR methods for detection. METHODS: We performed a comparison of two extraction protocols; one based on sieving of faecal material and one using targeted DNA sampling. Four methods of molecular detection were tested on E. multilocularis-egg spiked fox faeces. RESULTS: There were significant differences between the multiplex PCR/egg sieving DNA extraction methods compared to the new DNA fishing method and the three real-time PCR assays. Results also indicate that replicates of the PCR-reactions improve detection sensitivity when egg numbers are low. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that the use of real-time PCR combined with targeted DNA extraction, improves the sensitivity of E. multilocularis detection in faecal samples containing low numbers of E. multilocularis eggs. Results also indicate the importance of replicates of the PCR-reactions when pathogen levels are low.

Expert consultation on risk factors for introduction of infectious pathogens into fish farms.

An expert consultation was conducted to provide quantitative parameters required to inform risk-based surveillance of aquaculture holdings for selected infectious hazards. The hazards were four fish diseases endemic in some or several European countries: infectious salmon anaemia (ISA), viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS), infectious haematopoietic necrosis (IHN), and koi herpes virus disease (KHD). Experts were asked to provide estimates for the relative importance of 5 risk themes for the hazard to be introduced into and infect susceptible fish at the destination. The 5 risk themes were: (1) live fish and egg movements; (2) exposure via water; (3) on-site processing; (4) short distance mechanical transmission and (5) distance independent mechanical transmission. The experts also provided parameter estimates for hazard transmission pathways within the themes. The expert consultation was undertaken in a 2 step approach: an online survey followed by an expert consultation meeting. The expert opinion indicated that live fish movements and exposure via water were the major relevant risk themes. Experts were recruited from several European countries and thus covered a range of farming systems. Therefore, the outputs from the expert consultation have relevance for the European context.

Estimation of the reproduction number of salmon pancreas disease virus subtype 3 in homogeneously mixed populations of Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon.

The reproduction number (R) of salmon pancreas disease (PD) was estimated within homogeneously mixing populations (within-cage) of Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) based on data collected during PD epidemics from 10 cages at 2 farming sites. Two approaches were used: (a) estimation of an overall reproduction number (R(cmd)) and a time-dependent reproduction number (R(t)) using mortality records during PD epidemics, and (b) estimating the reproduction number during the early stage of infection (R(sd)) based on data from a surveillance program for SPDV subtype 3. The R(cmd) estimates based on the mortality data ranged from 1.02 to 1.45, and the R(sd) estimates ranged from 1.0 to 2.9. Plots of the R(t) estimates covering the whole epidemic period yielded an increasing slope prior to SPDV3 detection. This study presents a framework for the quantitative measurement of a PD epidemic that could be useful for the evaluation of prevention methods. The time-dependent R(t) estimate can provide an early warning of PD outbreaks.

Risk map and spatial determinants of pancreas disease in the marine phase of Norwegian Atlantic salmon farming sites.

BACKGROUND: Outbreaks of pancreas disease (PD) greatly contribute to economic losses due to high mortality, control measures, interrupted production cycles, reduced feed conversion and flesh quality in the aquaculture industries in European salmon-producing countries. The overall objective of this study was to evaluate an effect of potential factors contributing to PD occurrence accounting for spatial congruity of neighboring infected sites, and then create quantitative risk maps for predicting PD occurrence. The study population included active Atlantic salmon farming sites located in the coastal area of 6 southern counties of Norway (where most of PD outbreaks have been reported so far) from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2010. RESULTS: Using a Bayesian modeling approach, with and without spatial component, the final model included site latitude, site density, PD history, and local biomass density. Clearly, the PD infected sites were spatially clustered; however, the cluster was well explained by the covariates of the final model. Based on the final model, we produced a map presenting the predicted probability of the PD occurrence in the southern part of Norway. Subsequently, the predictive capacity of the final model was validated by comparing the predicted probabilities with the observed PD outbreaks in 2011. CONCLUSIONS: The framework of the study could be applied for spatial studies of other infectious aquatic animal diseases.

Optimizing early detection of avian influenza H5N1 in backyard and free-range poultry production systems in Thailand.

For infectious diseases such as highly pathogenic avian influenza caused by the H5N1 virus (A/H5N1 HP), early warning system is essential. Evaluating the sensitivity of surveillance is a necessary step in ensuring an efficient and sustainable system. Stochastic scenario tree modeling was used here to assess the sensitivity of the A/H5N1 HP surveillance system in backyard and free-grazing duck farms in Thailand. The whole surveillance system for disease detection was modeled with all components and the sensitivity of each component and of the overall system was estimated. Scenarios were tested according to selection of high-risk areas, inclusion of components and sampling procedure, were tested. Nationwide passive surveillance (SSC1) and risk-based clinical X-ray (SSC2) showed a similar sensitivity level, with a median sensitivity ratio of 0.96 (95% CI 0.40-15.00). They both provide higher sensitivity than the X-ray laboratory component (SSC3). With the current surveillance design, the sensitivity of detection of the overall surveillance system when the three components are implemented, was equal to 100% for a farm level prevalence of 0.05% and 82% (95% CI 71-89%) for a level of infection of 3 farms. Findings from this study illustrate the usefulness of scenario-tree modeling to document freedom from diseases in developing countries.

Evaluation of an alternative method of herd classification for infection with paratuberculosis in cattle herds in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a better system for classification of herd infection status for paratuberculosis (Johne's disease [JD]) in US cattle herds on the basis of the risk of potential transmission of Mycobacterium avium subsp paratubeculosis. SAMPLE: Simulated data for herd size and within-herd prevalence; sensitivity and specificity for test methods obtained from consensus-based estimates. PROCEDURES: Interrelationships among variables influencing interpretation and classification of herd infection status for JD were evaluated by use of simulated data for various herd sizes, true within-herd prevalences, and sampling and testing methods. The probability of finding ≥ 1 infected animal in herds was estimated for various testing methods and sample sizes by use of hypergeometric random sampling. RESULTS: 2 main components were required for the new herd JD classification system: the probability of detection of infection determined on the basis of test results from a sample of animals and the maximum detected number of animals with positive test results. Tables were constructed of the estimated probability of detection of infection, and the maximum number of cattle with positive test results or fecal pools with positive culture results with 95% confidence for classification of herd JD infection status were plotted. Herd risk for JD was categorized on the basis of 95% confidence that the true within-herd prevalence was ≤ 15%, ≤ 10%, ≤ 5%, or ≤ 2%. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Analysis of the findings indicated that a scientifically rigorous and transparent herd classification system for JD in cattle is feasible.

Estimated within-herd prevalence (WHP) of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in a sample of Minnesota dairy herds using bacterial culture of pooled fecal samples.

The objective of this study was to describe the estimated within-herd prevalence (WHP) of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) in a sample of infected dairy herds in Minnesota (N = 66) using test results from bacterial culture of pooled fecal samples. Fecal samples were collected from up to 100 cows in each herd and were tested using bacterial culture in pools of 5 cows based on age order. The mean herd size was 222 (44 to 1500) milking cows; the cows were predominantly Holstein. Using a frequentist approach, the within-herd mean individual fecal prevalence was 10% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 4% to 16%] assuming 70% test sensitivity and 99.5% test specificity. Using Bayesian methods, the estimated true within-herd individual cow prevalence was 14% (95% CI = 7% to 27%). Within-herd prevalence was higher in larger dairy herds than in herds with fewer cows. As Map is the causative agent of Johne's disease (JD), the results of this study could contribute to the success of a nationwide control program for this disease.

Anthropogenic factors and the risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1: prospects from a spatial-based model.

Beginning in 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus spread across Southeast Asia, causing unprecedented epidemics. Thailand was massively infected in 2004 and 2005 and continues today to experience sporadic outbreaks. While research findings suggest that the spread of HPAI H5N1 is influenced primarily by trade patterns, identifying the anthropogenic risk factors involved remains a challenge. In this study, we investigated which anthropogenic factors played a role in the risk of HPAI in Thailand using outbreak data from the "second wave" of the epidemic (3 July 2004 to 5 May 2005) in the country. We first performed a spatial analysis of the relative risk of HPAI H5N1 at the subdistrict level based on a hierarchical Bayesian model. We observed a strong spatial heterogeneity of the relative risk. We then tested a set of potential risk factors in a multivariable linear model. The results confirmed the role of free-grazing ducks and rice-cropping intensity but showed a weak association with fighting cock density. The results also revealed a set of anthropogenic factors significantly linked with the risk of HPAI. High risk was associated strongly with densely populated areas, short distances to a highway junction, and short distances to large cities. These findings highlight a new explanatory pattern for the risk of HPAI and indicate that, in addition to agro-environmental factors, anthropogenic factors play an important role in the spread of H5N1. To limit the spread of future outbreaks, efforts to control the movement of poultry products must be sustained.

Herd characteristics and management practices associated with seroprevalence of Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis infection in dairy herds.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate herd characteristics and management practices associated with a high seroprevalence of Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis (MAP) in dairy herds in central California. SAMPLE POPULATION: 60 randomly selected cows from each of 21 dairy herds. PROCEDURES: Sera of selected cows were tested for antibodies against MAP by use of an ELISA test kit. Cows with a test sample-to-positive control sample (S:P) ratio of > or = 0.25 were considered seropositive, and herds with > or = 4% seropositive cows were considered high-seroprevalence herds. Data on herd characteristics and management practices were collected via interviews with owners. Bayesian logistic regression was used to model the predictive probability of a herd having a high seroprevalence on the basis of various herd characteristics and management practices. RESULTS: 9 of 21 (43%) herds were classified as high-seroprevalence herds. Five variables (history of previous signs of paratuberculosis in the herd, herd size, exposing cattle to water from manure storage lagoons, feeding unsalable milk to calves, and exposing heifers < or = 6 months old to manure of adult cows) were included in the predictive model on the basis of statistical and biological considerations. In large herds, the predictive probability of a high seroprevalence of MAP infection decreased from 0.74 to 0.39 when management changed from poor to good practices. In small herds, a similar decrease from 0.64 to 0.29 was predicted. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The seroprevalence of MAP infection in California dairies may be reduced by improvements in herd management practices.