Improving the representativeness of UK's national COVID-19 Infection Survey through spatio-temporal regression and post-stratification.

Population-representative estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence and antibody levels in specific geographic areas at different time points are needed to optimise policy responses. However, even population-wide surveys are potentially impacted by biases arising from differences in participation rates across key groups. Here, we used spatio-temporal regression and post-stratification models to UK's national COVID-19 Infection Survey (CIS) to obtain representative estimates of PCR positivity (6,496,052 tests) and antibody prevalence (1,941,333 tests) for different regions, ages and ethnicities (7-December-2020 to 4-May-2022). Not accounting for vaccination status through post-stratification led to small underestimation of PCR positivity, but more substantial overestimations of antibody levels in the population (up to 21 percentage points), particularly in groups with low vaccine uptake in the general population. There was marked variation in the relative contribution of different areas and age-groups to each wave. Future analyses of infectious disease surveys should take into account major drivers of outcomes of interest that may also influence participation, with vaccination being an important factor to consider.

Modelling norovirus dynamics within oysters emphasises potential food safety issues associated with current testing & depuration protocols.

Norovirus is a significant global cause of viral gastroenteritis, with raw oyster consumption often linked to such outbreaks due to their filter-feeding in harvest waters. National water quality and depuration/relaying times are often classified using Escherichia coli, a poor proxy for norovirus levels in shellfish. The current norovirus assay is limited to only the digestive tracts of oysters, meaning the total norovirus load of an oyster may differ from reported results. These limitations motivated this work, building upon previous modelling by the authors, and considers the sequestration of norovirus into observed and cryptic (unobservable) compartments within each oyster. Results show that total norovirus levels in shellfish batches exhibit distinct peaks during the early depuration stages, with each peak's magnitude dependent on the proportion of cryptic norovirus. These results are supported by depuration trial data and other studies, where viral levels often exhibit multiphase decays. This work's significant result is that any future norovirus legislation needs to consider not only the harvest site's water classification but also the total viral load present in oysters entering the market. We show that 62 h of depuration should be undertaken before any norovirus testing is conducted on oyster samples, being the time required for cryptic viral loads to have transited into the digestive tracts where they can be detected by current assay, or have exited the oyster.

The aquaculture disease network model (AquaNet-Mod): A simulation model to evaluate disease spread and controls for the salmonid industry in England and Wales.

Infectious disease causes significant mortality in wild and farmed systems, threatening biodiversity, conservation and animal welfare, as well as food security. To mitigate impacts and inform policy, tools such as mathematical models and computer simulations are valuable for predicting the potential spread and impact of disease. This paper describes the development of the Aquaculture Disease Network Model, AquaNet-Mod, and demonstrates its application to evaluating disease epidemics and the efficacy of control, using a Viral Haemorrhagic Septicaemia (VHS) case study. AquaNet-Mod is a data-driven, stochastic, state-transition model. Disease spread can occur via four different mechanisms, i) live fish movement, ii) river based, iii) short distance mechanical and iv) distance independent mechanical. Sites transit between three disease states: susceptible, clinically infected and subclinically infected. Disease spread can be interrupted by the application of disease mitigation measures and controls such as contact tracing, culling, fallowing and surveillance. Results from a VHS case study highlight the potential for VHS to spread to 96% of sites over a 10 year time horizon if no disease controls are applied. Epidemiological impact is significantly reduced when live fish movement restrictions are placed on the most connected sites and further still, when disease controls, representative of current disease control policy in England and Wales, are applied. The importance of specific disease control measures, particularly contact tracing and disease detection rate, are also highlighted. The merit of this model for evaluation of disease spread and the efficacy of controls, in the context of policy, along with potential for further application and development of the model, for example to include economic parameters, is discussed.

Biosecurity and the ornamental fish trade: A stakeholder perspective in England.

The freshwater and marine ornamental fish industry is a primary route of hazard introduction and emergence, including aquatic animal diseases and non-native species. Prevention measures are key to reducing the risk of hazard incursion and establishment, but there is currently little understanding of the biosecurity practices and hazard responses implemented at post-border stages of the ornamental fish supply chain. This study addresses this knowledge gap, using questionnaires to collate information on actual biosecurity behaviours and hazard responses practised by ornamental fish retailers and hobbyist communities in England. Actual behaviours varied considerably within retailers and hobbyists, suggesting that reliance on preventative practices by individuals in the post-border stages of the ornamental fish supply chain is likely to be ineffective in minimizing the risk of hazard incursion and establishment. Resources should be allocated towards improving and enforcing robust pre- and at-border control measures, such as risk-based surveillance of ornamental fish imports at border controls. In addition, these findings should be used to implement targeted awareness-raising campaigns and help create directed training on biosecurity practices for individuals involved in the post-border stages of the ornamental supply chain.

Understanding drivers of wild oyster population persistence.

Persistence of wild Pacific oyster, Magallana gigas, also known as Crassostrea gigas, has been increasingly reported across Northern European waters in recent years. While reproduction is inhibited by cold waters, recent warm summer temperature has increased the frequency of spawning events. Although correlation between the increasing abundance of Pacific oyster reefs in Northern European waters and climate change is documented, persistence of wild populations may also be influenced by external recruitment from farmed populations and other wild oyster populations, as well as on competition for resources with aquaculture sites. Our understanding of the combined impact of the spawning frequency, external recruitment, and competition on wild population persistence is limited. This study applied an age-structured model, based on ordinary differential equations, to describe an oyster population under discrete temperature-related dynamics. The impact of more frequent spawning events, external recruitment, and changes in carrying capacity on Pacific oyster density were simulated and compared under theoretical scenarios and two case studies in Southern England. Results indicate that long term persistence of wild oyster populations towards carrying capacity requires a high frequency of spawning events but that in the absence of spawning, external recruitment from farmed populations and other wild oyster populations may act to prevent extinction and increase population density. However, external recruitment sources may be in competition with the wild population so that external recruitment is associated with a reduction in wild population density. The implications of model results are discussed in the context of wild oyster population management.

Cyanobacterial Abundance and Microcystin Profiles in Two Southern British Lakes: The Importance of Abiotic and Biotic Interactions.

Freshwater cyanobacteria blooms represent a risk to ecological and human health through induction of anoxia and release of potent toxins; both conditions require water management to mitigate risks. Many cyanobacteria taxa may produce microcystins, a group of toxic cyclic heptapeptides. Understanding the relationships between the abiotic drivers of microcystins and their occurrence would assist in the implementation of targeted, cost-effective solutions to maintain safe drinking and recreational waters. Cyanobacteria and microcystins were measured by flow cytometry and liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry in two interconnected reservoirs varying in age and management regimes, in southern Britain over a 12-month period. Microcystins were detected in both reservoirs, with significantly higher concentrations in the southern lake (maximum concentration >7 µg L-1). Elevated microcystin concentrations were not positively correlated with numbers of cyanobacterial cells, but multiple linear regression analysis suggested temperature and dissolved oxygen explained a significant amount of the variability in microcystin across both reservoirs. The presence of a managed fishery in one lake was associated with decreased microcystin levels, suggestive of top down control on cyanobacterial populations. This study supports the need to develop inclusive, multifactor holistic water management strategies to control cyanobacterial risks in freshwater bodies.

Isolation of a Chinook Salmon Bafinivirus (CSBV) in Imported Goldfish Carassius auratus L. in the United Kingdom and Evaluation of Its Virulence in Resident Fish Species.

This is the first record of a fish nidovirus isolated from a consignment of goldfish at the United Kingdom (UK) border. The full-length viral genome was 25,985 nt, sharing a 97.9% nucleotide identity with the Chinook salmon bafinivirus (CSBV) NIDO with two deletions of 537 and 480 nt on the ORF Ia protein. To assess the potential impact on UK fish species, Atlantic salmon, common carp and goldfish were exposed to the virus via an intraperitoneal (IP) injection and bath challenge. Moribundity was recorded in only 8% of IP-injected goldfish. A high viral load, ≈107 of the CSBV PpIa gene, was measured in the kidney of moribund goldfish. Mild histopathological changes were observed in the kidneys of challenged carps. Ultrastructural observations in renal tubule epithelial cells of goldfish showed cylindrical tubes (≈15 nm in diameter) and tubular structures budding spherical virions (≈200 nm in diameter) with external spike-like structures. Negative staining showed both circular and bacilliform virions. Seroconversion was measured in common carp and goldfish but not in Atlantic salmon. This study reinforces the potential risk of novel and emerging pathogens being introduced to recipient countries via the international ornamental fish trade and the importance of regular full health screens at the border inspection posts to reduce this risk.

Models suggest pathogen risks to wild fish can be mitigated by acquired immunity in freshwater aquaculture systems.

The interaction of pathogens between wild and farmed aquatic animal populations is a concern that remains unclear and controversial. Ichthyophthirius multifiliis, a ciliated protozoan parasite, is a pathogen of freshwater finfish species with geographic and host range that causes significant economic losses in aquaculture. Flow-through farming systems may facilitate the transfer of such a parasite with free-living stages between farmed and wild stocks. Here, experimental and field study infection data are used to describe the infection dynamics of Ichthyophthirius multifiliis in rainbow trout using a simple macroparasite model by including host resistance. The study considered flow-through farming systems with a single or two age-class compartments and simulated the transfer of the parasite between farmed and wild fish populations. Results suggest that aquaculture can promote the prevalence of the resistance in wild stocks by increasing the parasite population in the wild environment. At the same time, acquired resistance in the farmed fish population may protect the wild fish population from lethal effects of the parasite by reducing the total parasite population. This study offers a promising mathematical basis for understanding the effects of freshwater aquaculture in disease spread in wildlife, developing risk assessment modeling, and exploring new ways of aquaculture management.

Development of a non-lethal hydrogen peroxide treatment for surveillance of Gyrodactylus salaris on trout farms and its application to testing wild salmon populations.

This study documents the development of a non-lethal sampling method to recover gyrodactylid parasites from large numbers of fish that will underpin an improved surveillance strategy for Gyrodactylus salaris. A review of published literature identified over 80 compounds that have previously been tested against gyrodactylids or closely related parasite species. Five safe and relatively fast-acting compounds were selected for testing to determine their efficiency in removing gyrodactylids from host fish in small-scale aquaria trials using three-spined stickleback infected with Gyrodactylus gasterostei as a model host-parasite system. The most effective compound was hydrogen peroxide; short-duration exposure (3 min) achieved a parasite detection sensitivity of 80%-89%. The practicality of exposing farmed salmonids to hydrogen peroxide for G. salaris surveillance was tested in the field by conducting a parasite recovery trial using a brown trout stock endemically infected with G. truttae and G. derjavinoides and comparing this to the whole-body examination procedure currently conducted by UK authorities. Significantly more parasites were recovered after exposing fish to hydrogen peroxide and filtering the treatment solution than by direct whole-body examination of killed fish (mean: 225 vs. 138 parasites per fish). The gyrodactylid recovery rate of the two methods was 84.6% and 51.9%, respectively. A comparison of timings for the two methods indicated scope for significant time savings in adopting the chemical screening method. The study demonstrated that hydrogen peroxide bath treatment may be successfully applied to the surveillance of gyrodactylid parasites and established as a non-lethal method for sampling farmed and wild fish. This approach has the potential to reduce resources required to collect and isolate parasites for diagnostic testing and improve the sensitivity and confidence of surveillance programmes designed to demonstrate freedom from disease, thus underpinning a robust and defensible surveillance strategy for G. salaris for the UK aquatic animal disease contingency plan.

Immune response modulation upon sequential heterogeneous co-infection with Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae and VHSV in brown trout (Salmo trutta).

Simultaneous and sequential infections often occur in wild and farming environments. Despite growing awareness, co-infection studies are still very limited, mainly to a few well-established human models. European salmonids are susceptible to both Proliferative Kidney Disease (PKD), an endemic emergent disease caused by the myxozoan parasite Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, and Viral Haemorrhagic Septicaemia (VHS), an OIE notifiable listed disease caused by the Piscine Novirhabdovirus. No information is available as to how their immune system reacts when interacting with heterogeneous infections. A chronic (PKD) + acute (VHS) sequential co-infection model was established to assess if the responses elicited in co-infected fish are modulated, when compared to fish with single infections. Macro- and microscopic lesions were assessed after the challenge, and infection status confirmed by RT-qPCR analysis, enabling the identification of singly-infected and co-infected fish. A typical histophlogosis associated with histozoic extrasporogonic T. bryosalmonae was detected together with acute inflammation, haemorrhaging and necrosis due to the viral infection. The host immune response was measured in terms of key marker genes expression in kidney tissues. During T. bryosalmonae/VHSV-Ia co-infection, modulation of pro-inflammatory and antimicrobial peptide genes was strongly influenced by the viral infection, with a protracted inflammatory status, perhaps representing a negative side effect in these fish. Earlier activation of the cellular and humoral responses was detected in co-infected fish, with a more pronounced upregulation of Th1 and antiviral marker genes. These results reveal that some brown trout immune responses are enhanced or prolonged during PKD/VHS co-infection, relative to single infection.

The effectiveness of fishery net dips: Advice for the improvement of biosecurity measures.

Disease poses a major threat to aquaculture and commercial and recreational fisheries globally. Biosecurity measures have been implemented; however, empirical evidence of their efficacy in situ is lacking. Here, we present the results from a study conducted to examine the effectiveness of disinfectant net dips. Samples were collected from disinfectant net dips at 25 recreational fisheries in south-west England and assessed to determine (a) the level of bacterial contamination and (b) the reduction in titre of a target virus (infectious pancreatic necrosis virus, IPNV) following a contact time of 2 and 5 min. In addition, the study examined the reduction in target virus titre following exposure to laboratory prepared Virkon® , representing "clean," "dirty" and "diluted and dirty" conditions, for 2 and 5 min. Bacterial contamination was high in 64% of disinfectant samples, and, 76% of disinfectant samples did not effectively reduce the target virus titre in 2 or 5 min. Virus titre was successfully reduced following exposure to laboratory prepared Virkon® for 2 or 5 min, although dilution and contamination reduced the effectiveness. These results suggest that disinfectant net dips may not be working effectively on a high proportion of fishery sites. We provide recommendations for improving biosecurity.

Conditional persistence and tolerance characterize endoparasite-colonial host interactions.

Colonial hosts offer unique opportunities for exploitation by endoparasites resulting from extensive clonal propagation, but these interactions are poorly understood. The freshwater bryozoan, Fredericella sultana, and the myxozoan, Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, present an appropriate model system for examining such interactions. F. sultana propagates mainly asexually, through colony fragmentation and dormant propagules (statoblasts). Our study examines how T. bryosalmonae exploits the multiple transmission routes offered by the propagation of F. sultana, evaluates the effects of such transmission on its bryozoan host, and tests the hypothesis that poor host condition provokes T. bryosalmonae to bail out of a resource that may soon be unsustainable, demonstrating terminal investment. We show that infections are present in substantial proportions of colony fragments and statoblasts over space and time and that moderate infection levels promote statoblast hatching and hence effective fecundity. We also found evidence for terminal investment, with host starvation inducing the development of transmission stages. Our results contribute to a growing picture that interactions of T. bryosalmonae and F. sultana are generally characterized by parasite persistence, facilitated by multiple transmission pathways and host condition-dependent developmental cycling, and host tolerance, promoted by effective fecundity effects and an inherent capacity for renewed growth and clonal replication.

Correction: Predicting the Potential for Natural Recovery of Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar L.) Populations following the Introduction of Gyrodactylus salaris Malmberg, 1957 (Monogenea).

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0169168.].

Predicting the Potential for Natural Recovery of Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar L.) Populations following the Introduction of Gyrodactylus salaris Malmberg, 1957 (Monogenea).

Gyrodactylus salaris (Monogenea, Platyhelminthes) is a notifiable freshwater pathogen responsible for causing catastrophic damage to wild Atlantic salmon stocks, most notably in Norway. In some strains of Baltic salmon (e.g., from the river Neva) however, the impact is greatly reduced due to some form of innate resistance that regulates parasite numbers, resulting in fewer host mortalities. Gyrodactylus salaris is known from 17 European states; its status in a further 35 states remains unknown; the UK, the Republic of Ireland and certain watersheds in Finland are free of the parasite. Thus, the parasite poses a serious threat if it emerges in Atlantic salmon rearing regions throughout Europe. At present, infections are generally controlled via extreme measures such as the treatment of entire river catchments with the biocide rotenone, in order to remove all hosts, before restocking with the original genetic stock. The use of rotenone in this way in EU countries is unlikely as it would be in contravention of the Water Framework Directive. Not only are such treatments economically and environmentally costly, they also eradicate the potential for any host/parasite evolutionary process to occur. Based on previous studies, UK salmon stocks have been shown to be highly susceptible to infection, analogous to Norwegian stocks. The present study investigates the impact of a G. salaris outbreak within a naïve salmon population in order to determine long-term consequences of infection and the likelihood of coexistence. Simulation of the salmon/ G. salaris system was carried out via a deterministic mathematical modelling approach to examine the dynamics of host-pathogen interactions. Results indicated that in order for highly susceptible Atlantic strains to evolve a resistance, both a moderate-strong deceleratingly costly trade-off on birth rate and a lower overall cost of the immune response are required. The present study provides insights into the potential long term impact of G. salaris if introduced into G. salaris-free territories and suggests that in the absence of external controls salmon populations are likely to recover to high densities nearing 90% of that observed pre-infection.

Optimising Antibiotic Usage to Treat Bacterial Infections.

The increase in antibiotic resistant bacteria poses a threat to the continued use of antibiotics to treat bacterial infections. The overuse and misuse of antibiotics has been identified as a significant driver in the emergence of resistance. Finding optimal treatment regimens is therefore critical in ensuring the prolonged effectiveness of these antibiotics. This study uses mathematical modelling to analyse the effect traditional treatment regimens have on the dynamics of a bacterial infection. Using a novel approach, a genetic algorithm, the study then identifies improved treatment regimens. Using a single antibiotic the genetic algorithm identifies regimens which minimise the amount of antibiotic used while maximising bacterial eradication. Although exact treatments are highly dependent on parameter values and initial bacterial load, a significant common trend is identified throughout the results. A treatment regimen consisting of a high initial dose followed by an extended tapering of doses is found to optimise the use of antibiotics. This consistently improves the success of eradicating infections, uses less antibiotic than traditional regimens and reduces the time to eradication. The use of genetic algorithms to optimise treatment regimens enables an extensive search of possible regimens, with previous regimens directing the search into regions of better performance.

Heat Wave-Associated Vibriosis, Sweden and Finland, 2014.

During summer 2014, a total of 89 Vibrio infections were reported in Sweden and Finland, substantially more yearly infections than previously have been reported in northern Europe. Infections were spread across most coastal counties of Sweden and Finland, but unusually, numerous infections were reported in subarctic regions; cases were reported as far north as 65°N, ≈100 miles (160 km) from the Arctic Circle. Most infections were caused by non-O1/O139 V. cholerae (70 cases, corresponding to 77% of the total, all strains were negative for the cholera toxin gene). An extreme heat wave in northern Scandinavia during summer 2014 led to unprecedented high sea surface temperatures, which appear to have been responsible for the emergence of Vibrio bacteria at these latitudes. The emergence of vibriosis in high-latitude regions requires improved diagnostic detection and clinical awareness of these emerging pathogens.

In vivo virulence of viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) in rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss correlates inversely with in vitro Mx gene expression.

The in vitro replication of viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) isolates from each VHSV genotype and the associated cellular host Mx gene expression were analysed. All the isolates were able to infect RTG-2 cells and induce increased Mx gene expression (generic assay detecting isoforms 1 and 3 [Mx1/3]). A trout pathogenic, genotype Ia isolate (J167), showing high replication in RTG-2 cells (by infective titre and N gene expression) induced lower Mx1/3 gene expression than observed in VHSV isolates known to be non-pathogenic to rainbow trout: 96-43/8, 96-43/10 (Ib); 1p49, 1p53 (II); and MI03 (IVb). Paired co-inoculation assays were analysed using equal number of plaque forming units per ml (PFU) of J167 (Ia genotype) with other less pathogenic VHSV genotypes. In these co-inoculations, the Mx1/3 gene expression was significantly lower than for the non-pathogenic isolate alone. Of the three rainbow trout Mx isoforms, J167 did not induce Mx1 up-regulation in RTG-2 or RTgill-W1 cells. Co-inoculating isolates resulted in greater inhibition of Mx in both rainbow trout cell lines studied. Up-regulation of sea bream Mx in SAF-1 cells induced by 96-43/8 was also lower in co-inoculation assays with J167. The RTG-P1 cell line, expressing luciferase under the control of the interferon-induced Mx rainbow trout gene promoter, showed low luciferase activity when inoculated with pathogenic strains: J167, DK-5131 (Ic), NO-A-163/68 (Id), TR-206239-1, TR-22207111 (Ie), 99-292 (IVa), and CA-NB00-01 (IVc). Co-inoculation assays showed a J167-dose dependent inhibition of the luciferase activity. The data suggest that virulent VHSV isolates may interfere in the interferon pathways, potentially determining higher pathogenicity.

Comparative study of CXC chemokines modulation in brown trout (Salmo trutta) following infection with a bacterial or viral pathogen.

Chemokine modulation in response to pathogens still needs to be fully characterised in fish, in view of the recently described novel chemokines present. This paper reports the first comparative study of CXC chemokine genes transcription in salmonids (brown trout), with a particular focus on the fish specific CXC chemokines (CXCL_F). Adopting new primer sets, optimised to specifically target mRNA, a RT-qPCR gene screening was carried out. Constitutive gene expression was assessed first in six tissues from SPF brown trout. Transcription modulation was next investigated in kidney and spleen during septicaemic infection induced by a RNA virus (Viral Haemorrhagic Septicaemia virus, genotype Ia) or by a Gram negative bacterium (Yersinia ruckeri, ser. O1/biot. 2). From each target organ specific pathogen burden, measured detecting VHSV-glycoprotein or Y. ruckeri 16S rRNA, and IFN-γ gene expression were analysed for their correlation to chemokine transcription. Both pathogens modulated CXC chemokine gene transcript levels, with marked up-regulation seen in some cases, and with both temporal and tissue specific effects apparent. For example, Y. ruckeri strongly induced chemokine transcription in spleen within 24h, whilst VHS generally induced the largest increases at 3d.p.i. in both tissues. This study gives clues to the role of the novel CXC chemokines, in comparison to the other known CXC chemokines in salmonids.

Viral and bacterial septicaemic infections modulate the expression of PACAP splicing variants and VIP/PACAP receptors in brown trout immune organs.

Pituitary Adenylate Cyclase-Activating Polypeptide (PACAP) and PACAP-Related Peptide (PRP) are structurally similar peptides encoded in the same transcripts. Their transcription has been detected not only in the brain but also in a wide range of peripheral tissues, even including organs of the immune system. PACAP exerts pleiotropic activities through G-protein coupled membrane receptors: the PACAP-specific PAC-1 and the VPAC-1 and VPAC-2 receptors that exhibit similar affinities for the Vasoactive Intestinal Peptide (VIP) and PACAP. Recent findings added PACAP and its receptors to the growing list of mediators that allow cross-talk between the nervous, endocrine and immune systems in fish. In this study the expression of genes encoding for PACAP and PRP, as well as VIP/PACAP receptors was studied in laboratory-reared brown trout (Salmo trutta) after septicaemic infections. Respectively Viral Haemorrhagic Septicaemia Virus (VHSV-Ia) or the Gram-negative bacterium Yersinia ruckeri (ser. O1 - biot. 2) were used in infection challenges. Kidney and spleen, the teleost main lymphopoietic organs, were sampled during the first two weeks post-infection. RT-qPCR analysis assessed specific pathogens burden and gene expression levels. PACAP and PRP transcription in each organ was positively correlated to the respective pathogen burden, assessed targeting the VHSV-glycoprotein or Y. ruckeri 16S rRNA. Results showed as the transcription of PACAP splicing variants and VIP/PACAP receptors is modulated in these organs during an acute viral and bacterial septicaemic infections in brown trout. These gene expression results provide clues as to how the PACAP system is modulated in fish, confirming an involvement during active immune responses elicited by both viral and bacterial aetiological agents. However, further experimental evidence is still required to fully elucidate and characterize the role of PACAP and PRP for an efficient immune response against pathogens.