Prediction of diabetic retinopathy among type 2 diabetic patients in University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, 2006-2021: A prognostic model.

BACKGROUND: There has been a paucity of evidence for the development of a prediction model for diabetic retinopathy (DR) in Ethiopia. Predicting the risk of developing DR based on the patient's demographic, clinical, and behavioral data is helpful in resource-limited areas where regular screening for DR is not available and to guide practitioners estimate the future risk of their patients. METHODS: A retrospective follow-up study was conducted at the University of Gondar (UoG) Comprehensive Specialized Hospital from January 2006 to May 2021 among 856 patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Variables were selected using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression. The data were validated by 10-fold cross-validation. Four ML techniques (naïve Bayes, K-nearest neighbor, decision tree, and logistic regression) were employed. The performance of each algorithm was measured, and logistic regression was a well-performing algorithm. After multivariable logistic regression and model reduction, a nomogram was developed to predict the individual risk of DR. RESULTS: Logistic regression was the best algorithm for predicting DR with an area under the curve of 92%, sensitivity of 87%, specificity of 83%, precision of 84%, F1-score of 85%, and accuracy of 85%. The logistic regression model selected seven predictors: total cholesterol, duration of diabetes, glycemic control, adherence to anti-diabetic medications, other microvascular complications of diabetes, sex, and hypertension. A nomogram was developed and deployed as a web-based application. A decision curve analysis showed that the model was useful in clinical practice and was better than treating all or none of the patients. CONCLUSIONS: The model has excellent performance and a better net benefit to be utilized in clinical practice to show the future probability of having DR. Identifying those with a higher risk of DR helps in the early identification and intervention of DR.

The level of wasting and associated factors among children aged 6-59 months in sub-Saharan African countries: multilevel ordinal logistic regression analysis.

Background: Despite various interventions to combat child malnutrition in sub-Saharan Africa, wasting remains a critical public health concern for children aged 6-59 months. Wasting is a significant predictor of child survival and development, with a heightened risk of mortality among children. However, there is a lack of recent comprehensive data on the prevalence, severity level, and factors contributing to wasting in this age group. Objective: To identify the severity levels of wasting and its individual and community-level factors contributing to wasting among children aged 6-59 months in Sub-Saharan African countries. Methods: This research utilized Demographic and Health Survey data from 34 Sub-Saharan African countries, spanning the period from 2007 to 2022. The study included a weighted sample of 180,317 6-59-month-old children. We employed a multilevel proportional odds model to identify factors predicting the severity of wasting. Adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were reported to demonstrate significant relationships (p < 0.05) in the final model. Results: In Sub-Saharan Africa, 7.09% of children aged 6-59 months experience wasting (95% CI: 6.97, 7.20%). Among these children, the prevalence of moderate wasting is 4.97% (95% CI: 4.90, 5.10%), while severe wasting affects 2.12% (95% CI: 2.0, 2.20%). Factors such as term/post-term babies, wealth, frequency of feeding, improved toilet facilities, water sources, employed and educated mothers, rural residence, high community maternal education, and community media exposure are strongly associated with a lower chance of experiencing severe form of wasting. Conversely, birth order, family size, breastfeeding, diarrhea, cough, and fever, high community poverty, female household heads, and all Sub-Saharan Africa regions are linked to higher levels of wasting. Conclusion: The study findings underscore the persistent challenge of wasting among Sub-Saharan Africa's children, with 7.09% affected, of which 4.97% experience moderate wasting and 2.12% severe wasting. The identified predictors of wasting highlight the complex interplay of socio-economic, environmental, and health-related determinants. To address this issue improve access to healthcare and nutrition services, enhance sanitation infrastructure, promote women's empowerment, and implement community-based education programs. Additionally, prioritize early detection through routine screening and strengthen health systems' capacity to provide timely interventions.

The effect of dietary diversity on anemia levels among children 6-23 months in sub-Saharan Africa: A multilevel ordinal logistic regression model.

BACKGROUND: Anemia is the most common hematologic disorder of children worldwide. Since dietary diversity is a main requirement of children is to get all the essential nutrients, it can thus use as one of the basic indicator when assessing the child's anemia. Although dietary diversity plays a major role in anemia among children in sub-Saharan Africa, there is little evidence of an association between the dietary diversity and anemia level to identified potential strategies for prevention of anemia level in sub-Saharan Africa. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between dietary diversity and anemia levels among children aged 6-23 months in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: The most recent Demographic and Health Surveys from 32 countries in SSA were considered for this study, which used pooled data from those surveys. In this study, a total weighted sample of 52,180 children aged 6-23 months was included. The diversity of the diet given to children was assessed using the minimum dietary diversity (MDD), which considers only four of the seven food groups. A multilevel ordinal logistic regression model was applied due to the DHS data's hierarchical structure and the ordinal nature of anemia. With a p-value of 0.08, the Brant test found that the proportional odds assumption was satisfied. In addition, model comparisons were done using deviance. In the bi-variable analysis, variables having a p-value ≤0.2 were taken into account for multivariable analysis. The Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was presented for potential determinants of levels of anemia in the multivariable multilevel proportional odds model. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of minimum dietary diversity and anemia among children aged 6-23 months were 43% [95% CI: 42.6%, 43.4%] and 72.0% [95% CI: 70.9%, 72.9%] respectively. Of which, 26.2% had mild anemia, 43.4% had moderate anemia, and 2.4% had severe anemia. MDD, being female child, being 18-23 months age, born from mothers aged ≥25, taking drugs for the intestinal parasite, higher level of maternal education, number of ANC visits, middle and richer household wealth status, distance of health facility and being born in Central and Southern Africa were significantly associated with the lower odds of levels of anemia. Contrarily, being 9-11- and 12-17-months age, size of child, having fever and diarrhea in the last two weeks, higher birth order, stunting, wasting, and underweight and being in West Africa were significantly associated with higher odds of levels of anemia. CONCLUSION: Anemia was a significant public health issue among children aged 6-23 months in sub-Saharan Africa. Minimum dietary diversity intake is associated with reduced anemia in children aged 6 to 23 months in sub-Saharan Africa. Children should be fed a variety of foods to improve their anemia status. Reducing anemia in children aged 6-23 months can be achieved by raising mother education levels, treating febrile illnesses, and improve the family's financial situation. Finally, iron fortification or vitamin supplementation could help to better reduce the risk of anemia and raise children's hemoglobin levels in order to treat anemia.

Geographically weighted regression analysis to assess hotspots of early sexual initiation and associated factors in Ethiopia.

Background: Early sexual initiation (ESI) causes unintended pregnancy, sexually transmitted infections (STI), high risk of depression and anxiety, developmental delays, lack of emotional maturity, and difficulty in pursuing education. This study aims to analyze the geographically weighted regression and associated factors of ESI of women in Ethiopia. Methods: The study utilized data from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey, 2016. It included a weighted sample of 11,775 women. Spatial regression was carried out to determine which factors are related to hotspots of ESI of women. To identify the factors associated with ESI, a multilevel Poisson regression model with robust variance was conducted. An adjusted prevalence ratio (APR) with its 95 % confidence interval was presented. Results: The prevalence of ESI was 75.3 % (95%CI: 74.6 %, 76.1 %), showing notable spatial variation across different regions of Ethiopia. Areas of significant hotspots of ESI were identified in Western and Southern Tigray, most parts of Amhara, Southern, Central and Western Afar, Eastern Gambella, and North Western SNNPR. The significant variables for the spatial variation of ESI were; being single, rural residence, and having no formal education of the women. Factors including; wealth index, marital status, khat chewing, education level, residence, and region were associated significantly with ESI in the multilevel robust Poisson analysis. Conclusion: A higher proportion of ESI in women was found. Public health interventions must be made by targeting hotspot areas of ESI through increasing health care access and education (specifically among rural residents), developing a comprehensive sexual education, implementing policies and laws that outlaw early marriage, and mass community-based programs to increase awareness about the importance of delaying sexual activity.

Factors associated with the co-utilization of oral rehydration solution and zinc for treating diarrhea among under-five children in 35 sub-saharan Africa countries: a generalized linear mixed effect modeling with robust error variance.

INTRODUCTION: Even though childhood diarrhea is treated with a simple treatment solution, it continues to be one of the leading causes of under-five child mortality and malnutrition globally. In resource-limited settings such as Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the combination of oral rehydration salts (ORS) and zinc is regarded as an effective treatment for diarrhea; however, its utilization is very low. The purpose of this study was to determine the proportion and associated factors of co-utilization of ORS and zinc among under-five children with diarrhea in SSA. METHODS: The proportion and associated factors of co-utilization of ORS and zinc among under-five children with diarrhea in SSA were determined using secondary data analysis of recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) of 35 SSA countries. The study included a total of 44,341 under-five children with diarrhea in weighted samples. A generalized linear mixed-effects model with robust error variance was used. For the variables included in the final model, adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated. A model with the lowest deviance value were considered as the best-fitted model. RESULT: The pooled proportion of co-utilization of ORS and zinc for the treatment of diarrhea among under five children in SSA countries was 43.58% with a 95% CI (43.15%, 44.01%). Sex of the child, maternal age, residence, maternal educational and employment status, wealth index, media exposure, perceived distance to health facility and insurance coverage were statistically significant determinants of ORS and Zinc co-utilization for treating diarrhea among under five children in SSA. CONCLUSION: Only less than half of under-five children with diarrhea in SSA were treated with a combination of ORS and zinc. Thus, strengthening information dissemination through mass media, and community-level health education programs are important to scale up the utilization of the recommended combination treatment. Furthermore, increasing health insurance coverage, and establishing strategies to address the community with difficulty in accessing health facilities is also crucial in improving the use of the treatment.

The magnitude of stunting and its determinants among late adolescent girls in East Africa: Multilevel binary logistics regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: Stunting poses a significant health risk to adolescent girls aged 15-19 in low- and middle-income countries, leading to lower education levels, reduced productivity, increased disease vulnerability, and intergenerational malnutrition. Despite the inclusion of adolescent nutrition services in the Sustainable Development Goals, little progress has been made in addressing malnutrition among adolescent girls in several African nations. Limited evidence exists in East Africa due to small sample sizes and methodological limitations. To overcome these constraints, this study utilizes the latest Demographic and Health Survey data to estimate the prevalence and factors influencing stunting among late adolescent girls in ten East African countries. METHODS: This study utilized the most recent Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from 10 East African countries, including a total sample weight of 22,504 late-adolescent girls. A multilevel mixed-effect binary logistic regression model with cluster-level random effects was employed to identify factors associated with stunting among these girls. The odds ratio, along with the 95% confidence interval, was calculated to determine individual and community-level factors related to stunting. A p-value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant in determining the factors influencing stunting among late-adolescent girls. RESULTS: The prevalence of stunting among late adolescent girls in East Africa was found to be 13.90% (95% CI: 0.13-0.14). Religion, relationship to the head, presence of under-five children in the household, lactating adolescent, marital status, Time to get water source, and country of residence were significantly associated with Stunting. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the complexity of stunting in East Africa and identifies key factors that need attention to reduce its prevalence. Interventions should focus on improving water access, supporting lactating girls, addressing socioeconomic disparities, promoting optimal care practices, and implementing country-specific interventions to combat stunting and improve adolescent girls' nutrition.

Abnormal uterine bleeding and its associated factors among reproductive-age women who visit the gynecology ward in Dilla University General Hospital, Southern Ethiopia, 2022.

BACKGROUND: Abnormal uterine bleeding, a frequent gynecological problem among women of reproductive age, significantly affects their health and quality of life. Despite its problem, research on its extent and contributing factors in Ethiopia is scarce. Hence, this study is designed to determine the magnitude and factors associated with abnormal uterine bleeding among women visiting Dilla University General Hospital, Dilla, Ethiopia. METHODS: A cross-sectional study design was conducted with 380 women of reproductive age at Dilla University General Hospital. A systematic sampling method was employed to select the participants for the study. A structured interview administered questionnaire and checklist were used to collect the data. Stata V.14 software was used for cleaning, coding, ensuring completeness and accuracy, and further analysis. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used. Finally, the variables that have a p-value of < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. RESULTS: In this study, the magnitude of abnormal uterine bleeding was 24.21% (95% CI, 20.14-28.79). History of sexually transmitted disease [AOR = 1.44, 95% CI: (1.33, 4.75)], history of anemia [AOR = 3.92, 95% CI: (1.20, 12.74)]., history of alcohol consumption [AOR = 2.49, 95% CI: (1.22, 5.06)], and perceived stress level [AOR = 1.30, 95% CI: (1.15, 1.69)] were found to be significantly associated with abnormal uterine bleeding. CONCLUSIONS: The magnitude of abnormal uterine bleeding was 24.2% in the study setting. Factors such as a history of sexually transmitted disease, anemia, alcohol consumption, and perceived stress level were identified as significant risk factors for abnormal uterine bleeding. Addressing these factors is crucial for management. Further research and interventions targeting these risks are needed to enhance health outcomes. The study provides valuable insights for future interventions.

Prognostic factors of first intimate partner violence among ever-married women in Sub-Saharan Africa: Gompertz gamma shared frailty modeling.

BACKGROUND: Violence against women, particularly intimate partner violence, is a significant Concern for public health as well as a violation of the human rights of women especially in low and middle-income countries. However, there was limited evidence how soon an ever-married women experience intimate partner violence in Africa. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the timing of first intimate partner violence (FIPV) among ever-married women in 30 SSA countries and to identify the risk factors of the timing. METHODS: The present study has utilized 125,731 weighted samples, who participated in the domestic violence module of the survey from Demographic and Health Surveys of 30 SSA countries. The Gompertz gamma shared frailty model was fitted to determine the predictors. For model evaluation, the theta value, Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), and deviance were used. The Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) with a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was reported in the multivariable Gompertz gamma shared frailty model to highlight the strength and statistical significance of the associations. RESULT: One-third (31.02%) of ever-married women had reported experiencing IPV. The overall incidence rate of FIPV was 57.68 persons per 1000 person-years (95% CI = 50.61-65.76). Age at marriage, age difference, educational status, employment, residence, women's decision-making autonomy, husband who drink alcohol and wealth status were significantly associated with the timing of FIPV. CONCLUSION: The findings show that ever-married women are at high and increasing risk of violence. Thus, we recommend establishing effective health and legal response services for IPV, strengthening laws governing the sale and purchase of alcohol, empowering women, raising the educational attainment of women, and putting policies in place to combat the culture of societal tolerance for IPV all contribute to the empowerment of women.

Determinants of normal haemoglobin concentration among under-five children in Sub-Saharan Africa: a Positive deviance inquiry using cross-sectional study design.

BACKGROUND: Low haemoglobin level in children is linked with short-term and long-term consequences including developmental delay. Globally, over half of the children under the age of five years had low haemoglobin concentration. However, there is limited research on the prevalence and determinants of normal haemoglobin concentration among under-five children in sub-Saharan Africa. OBJECTIVE: To assess determinants of normal haemoglobin concentration among under-five children in SSA. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study design using a positive deviance approach SETTING: 33 SSA countries. PARTICIPANTS: 129 408 children aged 6-59 months PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: A multilevel Poisson regression model with robust variance was fitted to identify determinants of normal haemoglobin concentration. An adjusted prevalence ratio with a 95% CI was reported to declare the statistical significance. RESULT: The pooled prevalence of normal haemoglobin concentration among under-five children in SSA was 34.9% (95% CI: 34.6% to 35.1%). High maternal education, middle and rich household wealth, female child, frequent antenatal care visits, non-anaemic mothers, taking anthelmintic drugs and normal nutritional status were associated with increased odds of normal haemoglobin concentration. On the other hand, higher birth order, having fever and diarrhoea, rural residence were associated with lower odds of normal haemoglobin levels. CONCLUSION: According to our finding, only four out of 10 under-five children in SSA had a normal haemoglobin level. This finding proved that anaemia among children in SSA remains a serious public health concern. Therefore, improving maternal education, provision of drugs for an intestinal parasite and early detection and treatment of maternal anaemia, febrile illness and diarrhoeal disease is important.

Human papillomavirus vaccination uptake and determinant factors among adolescent schoolgirls in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Despite the ongoing global vaccination campaign aimed at preventing human papillomavirus (HPV) related health issues, the uptake of the HPV vaccine remains unacceptably low in developing regions, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Therefore, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed at determining the pooled prevalence and associated factors of HPV vaccine uptake among adolescent school girls in SSA. Electronic bio-medical databases were explored. Pooled prevalence, publication bias, meta-regression, sub-group, and sensitivity analysis were performed. The estimated pooled prevalence of HPV vaccine uptake was 28.53% [95% CI: (5.25, 51.81)]. Having good knowledge and a positive attitude was significantly associated with HPV vaccine uptake in SSA. Subgroup analysis revealed the highest uptake was 62.52% from Kenya and the lowest was 3.77% in Nigeria. The HPV vaccine uptake is low. It underscores the need for community education, school-based immunization, and education programs that promote the uptake of the vaccine to increase coverage.

Risk factors of necrotizing enterocolitis among neonates admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit at the selected public hospitals in southern Ethiopia, 2023.

Introduction: Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is a serious intestinal condition characterized by ischemic necrosis of the intestinal mucosa, inflammation, and invasion by gas-forming organisms, posing a significant threat to neonatal health. Necrotizing enterocolitis remains a significant cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality, particularly in developing countries. Due to limited research conducted in Ethiopia and the study area, there is a lack of information regarding the risk factors associated with necrotizing enterocolitis. Therefore, the goal of this study is to fill the aforementioned gap. Objective: This study aims to identify the risk factors of necrotizing enterocolitis among neonates admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) at selected general and referral hospitals in southern Ethiopia in the year 2023. Methods and materials: A facility-based unmatched case-control study was conducted. All neonates admitted to the NICU and diagnosed with necrotizing enterocolitis by the attending physician during the data collection period were considered as cases, whereas neonates admitted to the NICU but not diagnosed with necrotizing enterocolitis during the data collection period were considered as controls. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews and record reviews using the Kobo toolbox platform. The binary logistic regression method was used to determine the relationship between a dependent variable and independent variables. Finally, a p-value of < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: This study included 111 cases and 332 controls. Normal BMI [AOR = 0.11, 95% CI: (0.02, 0.58)], history of khat chewing [AOR = 4.21, 95% CI: (1.96, 9.06)], term gestation [AOR = 0.06, 95% CI: (0.01, 0.18)], history of cigarette smoking [AOR = 2.86, 95% CI: (1.14, 7.14)], length of hospital stay [AOR = 3.3, 95% CI: (1.43, 7.67)], and premature rupture of membrane [AOR = 3.51, 95% CI: (1.77, 6.98)] were significantly associated with NEC. Conclusion: The study identified several risk factors for necrotizing enterocolitis, including body mass index, history of khat chewing, gestational age, history of cigarette smoking, length of hospital stays, and premature rupture of membrane. Therefore, healthcare providers should be aware of these risk factors to identify newborns at high risk and implement preventive measures.

Nomogram to predict risk of neonatal mortality among preterm neonates admitted with sepsis at University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital: risk prediction model development and validation.

BACKGROUND: Mortality in premature neonates is a global public health problem. In developing countries, nearly 50% of preterm births ends with death. Sepsis is one of the major causes of death in preterm neonates. Risk prediction model for mortality in preterm septic neonates helps for directing the decision making process made by clinicians. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop and validate nomogram for the prediction of neonatal mortality. Nomograms are tools which assist the clinical decision making process through early estimation of risks prompting early interventions. METHODS: A three year retrospective follow up study was conducted at University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital and a total of 603 preterm neonates with sepsis were included. Data was collected using KoboCollect and analyzed using STATA version 16 and R version 4.2.1. Lasso regression was used to select the most potent predictors and to minimize the problem of overfitting. Nomogram was developed using multivariable binary logistic regression analysis. Model performance was evaluated using discrimination and calibration. Internal model validation was done using bootstrapping. Net benefit of the nomogram was assessed through decision curve analysis (DCA) to assess the clinical relevance of the model. RESULT: The nomogram was developed using nine predictors: gestational age, maternal history of premature rupture of membrane, hypoglycemia, respiratory distress syndrome, perinatal asphyxia, necrotizing enterocolitis, total bilirubin, platelet count and kangaroo-mother care. The model had discriminatory power of 96.7% (95% CI: 95.6, 97.9) and P-value of 0.165 in the calibration test before and after internal validation with brier score of 0.07. Based on the net benefit analysis the nomogram was found better than treat all and treat none conditions. CONCLUSION: The developed nomogram can be used for individualized mortality risk prediction with excellent performance, better net benefit and have been found to be useful in clinical practice with contribution in preterm neonatal mortality reduction by giving better emphasis for those at high risk.

Double burden of malnutrition and associated factors among women of reproductive age in sub-Saharan Africa: a multilevel multinomial logistic regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: Globally, malnutrition among women of reproductive age is on the rise and significantly contributing to non-communicable disease, deaths and disability. Even though the double burden of malnutrition (DBM) is a common problem among women in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), there are limited studies examining the factors contributing to underweight, overweight, and obesity at the SSA level. OBJECTIVE: To determine the factors associated with the DBM, and their relative magnitude, among women of reproductive age in SSA. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study design. SETTING: 33 SSA countries. PARTICIPANTS: 240 414 women of reproductive age. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: A multilevel multinomial logistic regression model was applied to identify factors associated with malnutrition. The adjusted relative risk ratio with 95% CI was used to declare the statistical significance of the association. RESULTS: The pooled prevalence of underweight, overweight and obesity among women in SSA were 8.87%, 16.47% and 6.10%, respectively. Women who are from rural residence and smoke cigarettes were more likely to be underweight. Conversely, women between the age of 24-34 and 35-49, who have higher education, belong to a middle and rich household, are ever married, have high parity, use contraceptives, have media exposure and smoke cigarettes were more likely to be overweight and/or obese. CONCLUSION: The findings of our study suggest that certain factors such as residence, education status, wealth, marital status, occupation, cigarette smoking, and contraceptive use have a significant assocation with malnutrition among women. Therefore, it is important for public health programs aimed at preventing the double burden of malnutrition to focus on these factors through comprehensive public awareness and cost-effective operational health interventions.

Levels of stunting associated factors among under-five children in Ethiopia: A multi-level ordinal logistic regression analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Stunting is a major public health problem affecting more than one-third of under five year's old children in Ethiopia. It has short and long (irreversible) consequences, including stunted growth, never reaching physical and cognitive potential, struggles in school, and increased morbidity and mortality due to infections. Though stunting is the leading cause of child mortality in Ethiopia, evidence is scarce on the prevalence and predictors of stunting among under-five years old children in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the prevalence and predictors of stunting severity among under-5 children in Ethiopia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study was based on 2019 Mini-Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) data. A weighted total sample of 4972 under-five years old children was included in the study. Height measurement was collected for each child. Anthropometric indicator, height-for-age was determined for children using World Health Organization growth standards (Z-scores for Height-for-Age (HAZ)) to asses stunting level. Given the ordinal nature of stunting and the hierarchical nature of EDHS data, a multilevel ordinal logistic regression model was applied. Brant test was used to check the proportional odds assumption, which was satisfied (P-value ≥0.05). Moreover, deviance was used for model comparison. For the multivariable analysis, variables with a p-value ≤0.2 in the bivariable analysis were considered. The Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was reported as associated factor to the severity levels of stunting in the multivariable multilevel proportional odds model. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of stunting among under-5 children in Ethiopia was 35.7% [95% CI: 34.4%, 37.1%]. Of these, 12.1% were severely stunted, and 24.9% were moderately stunted. Being male [AOR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.74, 0.93], children aged 6-23 months [AOR = 2.38, 95% CI: 1.84, 3.07], ≥ 24 months [AOR = 4.15, 95% CI: 3.26, 5.28], children whose maternal age 15-24 years [AOR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.58, 0.92], children from the poorest, poorer, middle, and richer household wealth were [AOR = 1.84, 95% CI: 1.32, 2.57], [AOR = 1.66, 95% CI: 1.20, 2.31], [AOR = 1.78, 95% CI: 1.29, 2.44], and [AOR = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.20, 2.17], children whose maternal educational status of no formal education and primary education had [AOR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.28, 2.82], [AOR = 1.78, 95% CI: 1.22, 2.60], Tigray [AOR = 2.95, 95% CI: 1.78, 4.86], Afar [AOR = 1.85, 95% CI: 1.11, 3.10], Amhara [AOR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.14, 3.14] and Harari [AOR = 1.97, 95% CI: 1.20, 3.25]regions, low community maternal education [AOR = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.62, 0.92] were significantly associated with stunting severity levelling. CONCLUSION: Stunting among children under five years of old in Ethiopia remains a major public health issue. Improving access to maternal education is related to appropriate child feeding practices and health, particularly in younger and uneducated mothers. Strengthening the family's wealth status is also recommended to reduce stunting. In addition, it is better to support strategies of preconception care for mothers during pregnancy to reduce stunting in the long term.

Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model to Estimate the Risk of Stroke Among Hypertensive Patients in University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Gondar, 2012 to 2022.

Background: A risk prediction model to predict the risk of stroke has been developed for hypertensive patients. However, the discriminating power is poor, and the predictors are not easily accessible in low-income countries. Therefore, developing a validated risk prediction model to estimate the risk of stroke could help physicians to choose optimal treatment and precisely estimate the risk of stroke. Objective: This study aims to develop and validate a risk prediction model to estimate the risk of stroke among hypertensive patients at the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital. Methods: A retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 743 hypertensive patients between September 01/2012 and January 31/2022. The participants were selected using a simple random sampling technique. Model performance was evaluated using discrimination, calibration, and Brier scores. Internal validity and clinical utility were evaluated using bootstrapping and a decision curve analysis. Results: Incidence of stroke was 31.4 per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 26.0, 37.7). Combinations of six predictors were selected for model development (sex, residence, baseline diastolic blood pressure, comorbidity, diabetes, and uncontrolled hypertension). In multivariable logistic regression, the discriminatory power of the model was 0.973 (95% CI: 0.959, 0.987). Calibration plot illustrated an overlap between the probabilities of the predicted and actual observed risks after 10,000 times bootstrap re-sampling, with a sensitivity of 92.79%, specificity 93.51%, and accuracy of 93.41%. The decision curve analysis demonstrated that the net benefit of the model was better than other intervention strategies, starting from the initial point. Conclusion: An internally validated, accurate prediction model was developed and visualized in a nomogram. The model is then changed to an offline mobile web-based application to facilitate clinical applicability. The authors recommend that other researchers eternally validate the model.

Determinants of high-risk fertility behavior among women of reproductive age in Kenya: a multilevel analysis based on 2022 Kenyan demographic and health survey.

BACKGROUND: Women's high-risk fertility behavior (HRFB), which is characterized by narrow birth intervals, high birth order, and younger maternal age at birth, have been scientifically reported to have detrimental effects on the mother and child's health. To date, there has been limited research into the underlying factors contributing to high-risk fertility behavior in Kenya. Thus, the aim of this study is to identify the factors associated with high-risk fertility behavior among women of reproductive age in Kenya. METHOD: The 2022 Kenyan Demography and Health Survey data was used for the current study. This study included 15,483 women of reproductive age. To account for the clustering effects of DHS data and the binary nature of the outcome variable, a multilevel binary logistic regression model was applied. An adjusted odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval was reported to declare the statistical significance. In addition, the model that had the lowest deviance was the one that best fit the data. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of HRFB among Kenyan women were 70.86% (95%CI = 69.96, 71.40). Women with primary, secondary, and higher educational levels, Protestant and Muslim religion followers, women whose husbands/partners had secondary and higher educational levels, a high household wealth index, ever had a terminated pregnancy, and rural residence, all of these factors were found to be strongly associated with high-risk fertility behavior. CONCLUSION: As per the findings of our study, in Kenya a significant proportion of women has experienced HRFB. This is a matter of concern as it poses a significant challenge to the healthcare system. The high prevalence of HRFB indicates that there is an urgent need to take appropriate measures in order to mitigate its impact. The situation calls for a comprehensive and coordinated approach involving all stakeholders to address this issue effectively. It would benefit policymakers to create programs that consider factors like education, wealth, and residence that make women more susceptible to HRFB. Targeting women living in high HRFB-prevalence areas could help address the root causes of the issue. This approach can alleviate negative impacts and ensure effective and sustainable solutions.

Determinants of anemia level among reproductive-age women in 29 Sub-Saharan African countries: A multilevel mixed-effects modelling with ordered logistic regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite the implementation of different nutritional and non-nutritional interventions, 43% of reproductive-age women in Africa suffer from anemia. Recent evidence also shows that none of the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries are on the track to achieve the nutrition target of 50% anemia reduction by 2030. To date, information on the level of anemia and its determinants among reproductive-age women at the SSA level is limited. Thus, this study aimed to estimate the pooled prevalence of anemia level and its determinants in SSA countries. METHODS: We used a pooled data of 205,627 reproductive-age women from the recent demographic and health surveys of 29 SSA countries that were conducted between 2010-2021. A multilevel mixed-effects analysis with an ordered logistic regression model was fitted to identify determinants of anemia level and the deviance value was used to select the best-fitted model. First, bivariable ordinal logistic regression analysis was done and the proportional odds assumption was checked for each explanatory variable using a Brant test. Finally, in a multivariable multilevel ordinal logistic regression model, a p-value<0.05 and AOR with the corresponding 95% CI were used to identify determinants of anemia level. All analyses were done using Stata version 17 software. RESULTS: The pooled prevalence of anemia among women of reproductive age in SSA was 40.5% [95% CI = 40.2%-40.7%], where 24.8% [95% CI: 24.6%-25.0%], 11.1% [95% CI = 10.9%-11.2%], and 0.8% [95% CI = 0.7%-0.8%] had mild, moderate, and severe anemia, respectively. The prevalence significantly varied from the lowest of 13% in Rwanda to the highest of 62% in Mali, and anemia was found as a severe public health problem (prevalence of ≥ 40%) in 18 countries. The regression result revealed that polygamous marriage, women and husband illiteracy, poor household wealth, shorter birth interval, non-attendance of antenatal care, underweight, unimproved toilet and water facilities, and low community-level women literacy were positively linked with high anemia level. Additionally, the likelihood of anemia was lower in women who were overweight and used modern contraception. CONCLUSIONS: Overall results showed that anemia among women of reproductive age is a severe public health problem in SSA countries, affecting more than four in ten women. Thus, enhancing access to maternal health services (antenatal care and contraception) and improved sanitation facilities would supplement the existing interventions targeted to reduce anemia. Moreover, strengthening women's education and policies regulating the prohibition of polygamous marriage are important to address the operational constraints.

Suboptimal birth spacing practice and its predictors among reproductive-age women in Sub-Saharan African countries: a multilevel mixed-effects modeling with robust Poisson regression.

BACKGROUND: Despite the availability of exempted family planning services, a significant proportion of women in African countries continue to experience inadequately spaced pregnancies. To the authors' knowledge, evidence of suboptimal birth intervals at the SSA level is lacking and previous studies have been limited to specific geographic area. Therefore, this analysis was aimed to estimate the pooled prevalence of suboptimal birth spacing and its predictors among childbearing women in SSA. METHODS: Pooled DHS data from 35 SSA countries were used and a weighted sample of 221,098 reproductive-age women was considered in the analysis. The survey across all countries employed a cross-sectional study design and collected data on basic sociodemographic characteristics and different health indicators. Forest plot was used to present the overall and country-level prevalence of suboptimal birth spacing. Multilevel mixed-effects models with robust Poisson regression were fitted to identify the predictors of suboptimal birth spacing. Akaike's and Bayesian information criteria and deviance were used to compare the models. In a multivariable regression model, a p-value less than 0.05 and an adjusted prevalence ratio with the corresponding 95% CI were used to assess the statistical significance of the explanatory variables. RESULTS: The pooled prevalence of suboptimal birth spacing among women in SSA was 43.91% (43.71%-44.11%), with South Africa having the lowest prevalence (23.25%) and Chad having the highest (59.28%). It was also found that 14 of the 35 countries had a prevalence above the average for SSA. Rural residence [APR (95% CI) = 1.10 (1.12-1.15)], non-exposure to media [APR (95% CI) = 1.08 (1.07-1.11)], younger maternal age [APR (95% CI) = 2.05 (2.01-2.09)], non-use of contraception [APR (95% CI) = 1.18 (1.16-1.20)], unmet need for family planning [APR (95% CI) = 1.04 (1.03-1.06)], higher birth order [APR (95% CI) = 1.31 (1.28-1.34)], and desire to have at least six children [APR (95% CI) = 1.14 (1.13-1.16)] were the predictors of suboptimal birth spacing practice. CONCLUSION: More than four out of ten reproductive-age women in SSA countries gave birth to a subsequent child earlier than the recommended birth spacing, with considerable variations across the countries. Thus, interventions designed at enhancing optimal birth spacing should pay particular attention to young and socioeconomically disadvantaged women and those residing in rural regions. Strengthening community health programs and improving accessibility and availabilities of fertility control methods that ultimately impacts optimal reproductive behaviors is crucial to address contraceptive utilization and unmet need.

Development and validation of risk prediction model for diabetic neuropathy among diabetes mellitus patients at selected referral hospitals, in Amhara regional state Northwest Ethiopia, 2005-2021.

BACKGROUND: Diabetic neuropathy is the most common complication in both Type-1 and Type-2 DM patients with more than one half of all patients developing nerve dysfunction in their lifetime. Although, risk prediction model was developed for diabetic neuropathy in developed countries, It is not applicable in clinical practice, due to poor data, methodological problems, inappropriately analyzed and reported. To date, no risk prediction model developed for diabetic neuropathy among DM in Ethiopia, Therefore, this study aimed prediction the risk of diabetic neuropathy among DM patients, used for guiding in clinical decision making for clinicians. OBJECTIVE: Development and validation of risk prediction model for diabetic neuropathy among diabetes mellitus patients at selected referral hospitals, in Amhara regional state Northwest Ethiopia, 2005-2021. METHODS: A retrospective follow up study was conducted with a total of 808 DM patients were enrolled from January 1,2005 to December 30,2021 at two selected referral hospitals in Amhara regional state. Multi-stage sampling techniques were used and the data was collected by checklist from medical records by Kobo collect and exported to STATA version-17 for analysis. Lasso method were used to select predictors and entered to multivariable logistic regression with P-value<0.05 was used for nomogram development. Model performance was assessed by AUC and calibration plot. Internal validation was done through bootstrapping method and decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate net benefit of model. RESULTS: The incidence proportion of diabetic neuropathy among DM patients was 21.29% (95% CI; 18.59, 24.25). In multivariable logistic regression glycemic control, other comorbidities, physical activity, hypertension, alcohol drinking, type of treatment, white blood cells and red blood cells count were statistically significant. Nomogram was developed, has discriminating power AUC; 73.2% (95% CI; 69.0%, 77.3%) and calibration test (P-value = 0.45). It was internally validated by bootstrapping method with discrimination performance 71.7 (95% CI; 67.2%, 75.9%). It had less optimism coefficient (0.015). To make nomogram accessible, mobile based tool were developed. In machine learning, classification and regression tree has discriminating performance of 70.2% (95% CI; 65.8%, 74.6%). The model had high net benefit at different threshold probabilities in both nomogram and classification and regression tree. CONCLUSION: The developed nomogram and decision tree, has good level of accuracy and well calibration, easily individualized prediction of diabetic neuropathy. Both models had added net benefit in clinical practice and to be clinically applicable mobile based tool were developed.

Prevalence and associated factors of active trachoma among 1-9 years of age children in Andabet district, northwest Ethiopia, 2023: A multi-level mixed-effect analysis.

BACKGROUND: Trachoma is the chief cause of preventable blindness worldwide and has been earmarked for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Despite the five-year Surgery, Antibiotics, Facial cleanliness, and Environmental improvement (SAFE)-based interventions in the Andabet district, the prevalence of trachomatous follicular (TF) was 37%. With such a high prevalence of TF, the determinant factors were not revealed. Besides, there were no reports on the overall prevalence of active trachoma (i.e.TF and or trachomatous intense (TI)). OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence and associated factors of active trachoma among 1-9 years of age children in the Andabet district. METHOD: A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among children aged under nine years from March 1-30, 2023 in Andabet district, Northwest Ethiopia. Multi-stage systematic random sampling was employed to reach 540 children. A multilevel mixed-effect logistic regression analysis was employed to assess factors associated with active trachoma. We fitted both random effect and fixed effect analysis. Finally, variables with p<0.05 in the multivariable multilevel analysis were claimed to be significantly associated with active trachoma. RESULT: In this study, the overall prevalence of active trachoma was 35.37% (95% CI: 31.32%, 39.41%). The prevalence of TF and TI was 31.3% and 4.07% respectively. In the multilevel logistic regression analysis ocular discharge, fly-eye contact, latrine utilization, and source of water were significantly associated with the prevalence of active trachoma. CONCLUSION: In this study, the prevalence of active trachoma was much higher than the World Health Organization (WHO) threshold prevalence. Ocular discharge, fly-eye contact, latrine utilization, and source of water were independent determinants of active trachoma among children (1-9 years). Therefore, paying special attention to these high-risk groups could decrease the prevalence of a neglected hyperendemic disease, active trachoma.