Disorder or a new order: How climate change affects phenological variability.

Advancing spring phenology is a well documented consequence of anthropogenic climate change, but it is not well understood how climate change will affect the variability of phenology year to year. Species' phenological timings reflect the adaptation to a broad suite of abiotic needs (e.g., thermal energy) and biotic interactions (e.g., predation and pollination), and changes in patterns of variability may disrupt those adaptations and interactions. Here, we present a geographically and taxonomically broad analysis of phenological shifts, temperature sensitivity, and changes in interannual variability encompassing nearly 10,000 long-term phenology time series representing more than 1000 species across much of the Northern Hemisphere. We show that the timings of leaf-out, flowering, insect first-occurrence, and bird arrival were the most sensitive to temperature variation and have advanced at the fastest pace for early-season species in colder and less seasonal regions. We did not find evidence for changing variability in warmer years in any phenophase groups, although leaf-out and flower phenology have become moderately but significantly less variable over time. Our findings suggest that climate change has not to this point fundamentally altered the patterns of interannual phenological variability.

Statistical Analysis of Chemical Element Compositions in Food Science: Problems and Possibilities.

In recent years, many analyses have been carried out to investigate the chemical components of food data. However, studies rarely consider the compositional pitfalls of such analyses. This is problematic as it may lead to arbitrary results when non-compositional statistical analysis is applied to compositional datasets. In this study, compositional data analysis (CoDa), which is widely used in other research fields, is compared with classical statistical analysis to demonstrate how the results vary depending on the approach and to show the best possible statistical analysis. For example, honey and saffron are highly susceptible to adulteration and imitation, so the determination of their chemical elements requires the best possible statistical analysis. Our study demonstrated how principle component analysis (PCA) and classification results are influenced by the pre-processing steps conducted on the raw data, and the replacement strategies for missing values and non-detects. Furthermore, it demonstrated the differences in results when compositional and non-compositional methods were applied. Our results suggested that the outcome of the log-ratio analysis provided better separation between the pure and adulterated data and allowed for easier interpretability of the results and a higher accuracy of classification. Similarly, it showed that classification with artificial neural networks (ANNs) works poorly if the CoDa pre-processing steps are left out. From these results, we advise the application of CoDa methods for analyses of the chemical elements of food and for the characterization and authentication of food products.

Analysis of chemical compounds in beverages - Guidance for establishing a compositional analysis.

In recent years, much analysis has been carried out regarding the chemical compositions of nonalcoholic and alcoholic beverages. However, no study has ever considered the compositional pitfalls inherent in such studies, which may lead to arbitrary results. Two approaches were compared in this paper, compositional data analysis (CoDa) and classical statistical analyses, to demonstrate (1) how aging affects beer and (2) how the results vary depending on the applied approach. Exemplarily, chemical compounds of 43 beer samples were analyzed. Our work has led us to obtain different results when the correlation analysis and principal component analysis were conducted on the unmodified-, log-transformed-, or closed-data in contrary to the analyses of log-ratio coordinates. The outcome of the latter provided better separation between aged and fresh beer samples and also easier interpretability. These results lead us to advise the usage of CoDa methods for the analyses of chemical compositions of beverages.

Pan European Phenological database (PEP725): a single point of access for European data.

The Pan European Phenology (PEP) project is a European infrastructure to promote and facilitate phenological research, education, and environmental monitoring. The main objective is to maintain and develop a Pan European Phenological database (PEP725) with an open, unrestricted data access for science and education. PEP725 is the successor of the database developed through the COST action 725 "Establishing a European phenological data platform for climatological applications" working as a single access point for European-wide plant phenological data. So far, 32 European meteorological services and project partners from across Europe have joined and supplied data collected by volunteers from 1868 to the present for the PEP725 database. Most of the partners actively provide data on a regular basis. The database presently holds almost 12 million records, about 46 growing stages and 265 plant species (including cultivars), and can be accessed via http://www.pep725.eu/ . Users of the PEP725 database have studied a diversity of topics ranging from climate change impact, plant physiological question, phenological modeling, and remote sensing of vegetation to ecosystem productivity.

Phenological patterns of flowering across biogeographical regions of Europe.

Long-term changes of plant phenological phases determined by complex interactions of environmental factors are in the focus of recent climate impact research. There is a lack of studies on the comparison of biogeographical regions in Europe in terms of plant responses to climate. We examined the flowering phenology of plant species to identify the spatio-temporal patterns in their responses to environmental variables over the period 1970-2010. Data were collected from 12 countries along a 3000-km-long, North-South transect from northern to eastern Central Europe.Biogeographical regions of Europe were covered from Finland to Macedonia. Robust statistical methods were used to determine the most influential factors driving the changes of the beginning of flowering dates. Significant species-specific advancements in plant flowering onsets within the Continental (3 to 8.3 days), Alpine (2 to 3.8 days) and by highest magnitude in the Boreal biogeographical regions (2.2 to 9.6 days per decades) were found, while less pronounced responses were detected in the Pannonian and Mediterranean regions. While most of the other studies only use mean temperature in the models, we show that also the distribution of minimum and maximum temperatures are reasonable to consider as explanatory variable. Not just local (e.g. temperature) but large scale (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation) climate factors, as well as altitude and latitude play significant role in the timing of flowering across biogeographical regions of Europe. Our analysis gave evidences that species show a delay in the timing of flowering with an increase in latitude (between the geographical coordinates of 40.9 and 67.9), and an advance with changing climate. The woody species (black locust and small-leaved lime) showed stronger advancements in their timing of flowering than the herbaceous species (dandelion, lily of the valley). In later decades (1991-2010), more pronounced phenological change was detected than during the earlier years (1970-1990), which indicates the increased influence of human induced higher spring temperatures in the late twentieth century.

Change of plant phenophases explained by survival modeling.

It is known from many studies that plant species show a delay in the timing of flowering events with an increase in latitude and altitude, and an advance with an increase in temperature. Furthermore, in many locations and for many species, flowering dates have advanced over the long-term. New insights using survival modeling are given based on data collected (1970-2010) along a 3000-km long transect from northern to eastern central Europe. We could clearly observe that in the case of dandelion (Taraxacum officinale) the risk of flowering time, in other words the probability that flowering occurs, is higher for an earlier day of year in later decades. Our approach assume that temperature has greater influence than precipitation on the timing of flowering. Evaluation of the predictive power of tested models suggests that Cox models may be used in plant phenological research. The applied Cox model provides improved predictions of flowering dates compared to traditional regression methods and gives further insights into drivers of phenological events.