Health care costs associated with chronic hepatitis C virus infection in Ontario, Canada: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: High-quality estimates of health care costs are required to understand the burden of illness and to inform economic models. We estimated the costs associated with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection from the public payer perspective in Ontario, Canada. METHODS: In this population-based retrospective cohort study, we identified patients aged 18-105 years diagnosed with chronic HCV infection in Ontario from 2003 to 2014 using linked administrative data. We allocated the time from diagnosis until death or the end of follow-up (Dec. 31, 2016) to 9 mutually exclusive health states using validated algorithms: no cirrhosis, no cirrhosis (RNA negative) (i.e., cured HCV infection), compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, both decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, terminal (liver-related) and terminal (non-liver-related). We estimated direct medical costs (in 2018 Canadian dollars) per 30 days per health state and used regression models to identify predictors of the costs. RESULTS: We identified 48 239 patients with chronic hepatitis C, of whom 30 763 (63.8%) were men and 35 891 (74.4%) were aged 30-59 years at diagnosis. The mean 30-day costs were $798 (95% confidence interval [CI] $780-$816) (n = 43 568) for no cirrhosis, $661 (95% CI $630-$692) (n = 6422) for no cirrhosis (RNA negative), $1487 (95% CI $1375-$1599) (n = 4970) for compensated cirrhosis, $3659 (95% CI $3279-$4039) (n = 3151) for decompensated cirrhosis, $4238 (95% CI $3480-$4996) (n = 550) for hepatocellular carcinoma, $8753 (95% CI $7130-$10 377) (n = 485) for both decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, $4539 (95% CI $3746-$5333) (n = 372) for liver transplantation, $11 202 (95% CI $10 645-$11 760) (n = 3201) for terminal (liver-related) and $8801 (95% CI $8331-$9271) (n = 5278) for terminal (non-liver-related) health states. Comorbidity was the most significant predictor of total costs for all health states. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that the financial burden of HCV infection is substantially higher than previously estimated in Canada. Our comprehensive, up-to-date cost estimates for clinically defined health states of HCV infection should be useful for future economic evaluations related to this disorder.

Hepatitis C treatment strategies in prisons: A cost-effectiveness analysis.

In Australian prisons approximately 20% of inmates are chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV), providing an important population for targeted treatment and prevention. A dynamic mathematical model of HCV transmission was used to assess the impact of increasing direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment uptake on HCV incidence and prevalence in the prisons in New South Wales, Australia, and to assess the cost-effectiveness of alternate treatment strategies. We developed four separate models reflecting different average prison lengths of stay (LOS) of 2, 6, 24, and 36 months. Each model considered four DAA treatment coverage scenarios of 10% (status-quo), 25%, 50%, and 90% over 2016-2045. For each model and scenario, we estimated the lifetime burden of disease, costs and changes in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in prison and in the community during 2016-2075. Costs and QALYs were discounted 3.5% annually and adjusted to 2015 Australian dollars. Compared to treating 10% of infected prisoners, increasing DAA coverage to 25%, 50%, and 90% reduced HCV incidence in prisons by 9-33% (2-months LOS), 26-65% (6-months LOS), 37-70% (24-months LOS), and 35-65% (36-months LOS). DAA treatment was highly cost-effective among all LOS models at conservative willingness-to-pay thresholds. DAA therapy became increasingly cost-effective with increasing coverage. Compared to 10% treatment coverage, the incremental cost per QALY ranged from $497-$569 (2-months LOS), -$280-$323 (6-months LOS), -$432-$426 (24-months LOS), and -$245-$477 (36-months LOS). Treating more than 25% of HCV-infected prisoners with DAA therapy is highly cost-effective. This study shows that treating HCV-infected prisoners is highly cost-effective and should be a government priority for the global HCV elimination effort.

Estimating chronic hepatitis C prevalence in British Columbia and Ontario, Canada, using population-based cohort studies.

Patients identified as having chronic hepatitis C (CHC) infection can be effectively and rapidly treated using direct-acting antiviral agents. However, there remains a substantial burden of subclinical undetected infection. This study estimates the prevalence and undiagnosed proportion of CHC in British Columbia (BC) and Ontario, Canada, using a model-based approach, informed by provincial population-level health administrative data. A two-step approach was used: Step 1) Two population-based retrospective analyses of administrative health data for a cohort of British Columbians and a cohort of Ontarians with CHC were conducted to generate population-level statistics of CHC-related health events; Step 2) using a validated natural history model of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, the historical prevalence of CHC was back-calculated from the data collected in Step 1. Our retrospective study found that, in BC and Ontario, the number of newly diagnosed CHC cases is declining yearly while the complications of the disease are increasing yearly. BC had a 2014 CHC prevalence of 1.04% (95% CI: 0.84%-1.44%), with 33.3% (95% CI: 25.5%-42.0%) of CHC cases undiagnosed. Ontario had a 2014 CHC prevalence of 0.91% (95% CI: 0.83%-1.02%) with 36.0% (95% CI: 31.2%-38.9%) of CHC cases undiagnosed. Our study offers robust estimates based on the integration of a validated natural history model with population-level health administrative data on HCV-related events, which can provide vital evidence for policymakers to develop appropriate policies to achieve elimination targets. Our approach can also be applied to produce robust region-specific estimates in other countries.

Long-term morbidity and mortality in a Canadian post-transfusion hepatitis C cohort: Over 15 years of follow-up.

The Federal Government of Canada established a $1.1 billion compensation programme in 1999 to support individuals who acquired hepatitis C virus (HCV) through blood products between January 1986 and July 1990. We aimed to describe the morbidity and mortality of this unique post-transfusion cohort (n = 4550) followed for over 15 years from 2000 to 2016. The age-standardized mortality rates were compared with that of the Canadian general population and HCV cohorts from other countries. We evaluated all-cause mortality using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and HCV-related and unrelated mortality using competing risk models. The age-standardized all-cause and HCV-related mortality rates per 10 000 person-years were 127 (95% CI: 117-138) and 76 (95% CI: 69-85) for males, and 77 (95% CI: 69-87) and 43 (95% CI: 37-51) for females, respectively. The risk of death of the post-transfusion cohort was almost twice as high as the Canadian general population (rate ratio = 1.8; 95% CI: 1.7-1.9). All-cause, HCV-related and HCV-unrelated mortality were 20%, 12% and 8%, respectively at 15 years of follow-up. By comparison, HCV-related mortality rates per 10 000 person-years for population-based HCV cohorts varied from 18 and 11 in Australia to 65 and 43 in Scotland for males and females, respectively. We reported long-term follow-up data for the largest post-transfusion cohort in the literature. The all-cause mortality rates were markedly higher than that of the Canadian general population. We also showed that HCV-related mortality were greater compared to other HCV cohorts. This suggests that continued efforts to identify and treat post-transfusion HCV are warranted.

Estimation of fibrosis progression rates for chronic hepatitis C: a systematic review and meta-analysis update.

OBJECTIVES: Mathematical models are increasingly important in planning for the upcoming chronic hepatitis C (CHC) elimination efforts. Such models require reliable natural history inputs to make accurate predictions on health and economic outcomes. Yet, hepatitis C virus disease progression is known to vary widely in the literature and published inputs are currently outdated. The objectives of this study were to obtain updated estimates of fibrosis progression rates (FPR) in treatment-naïve patients with CHC and to explore sources of heterogeneity. DESIGN: A systematic review was conducted using Ovid-MEDLINE, Ovid-EMBASE and PubMed databases (January 1990 to January 2018) to identify observational studies of hepatic fibrosis in treatment-naïve patients with CHC. OUTCOMES: Stage-constant FPRs were estimated for each study given the reported fibrosis scores and duration of infection. Stage-specific FPRs (ie, F0→F1; F1→F2; F2→F3; F3→F4) were estimated using Markov maximum likelihood estimation. Estimates were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis and heterogeneity was evaluated by stratification and random-effects meta-regression. RESULTS: The review identified 111 studies involving 131 groups of patients (n=42 693). The pooled stage-constant FPR was 0.094 (95% CI 0.088 to 0.100); stage-specific FPRs were F0→F1: 0.107 (95% CI 0.097 to 0.118); F1→F2: 0.082 (95% CI 0.074 to 0.091); F2→F3: 0.117 (95% CI 0.107 to 0.129); F3→F4: 0.116 (95% CI 0.104 to 0.131). Stratified analysis revealed substantial variation in progression by study population. Meta-regression indicated associations between progression and infection age, duration, source, viral genotype and study population. Findings indicate that FPRs display substantial heterogeneity across study populations and pooled values from more homogenous subpopulations should be considered when estimating prognosis. CONCLUSIONS: This large meta-analysis presents updated prognostic estimates for CHC derived from newer studies using better diagnostic methods and improves estimates for important patient populations in terms of clinical policy (eg, injection drug users, non-clinical populations, liver clinic patients) and should be a valuable resource for patients, clinicians and clinical policymakers.

Estimates and predictors of health care costs of esophageal adenocarcinoma: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) incidence is increasing rapidly. Esophageal cancer has the second lowest 5-year survival rate of people diagnosed with cancer in Canada. Given the poor survival and the potential for further increases in incidence, phase-specific cost estimates constitute an important input for economic evaluation of prevention, screening, and treatment interventions. The study aims to estimate phase-specific net direct medical costs of care attributable to EAC, costs stratified by cancer stage and treatment, and predictors of total net costs of care for EAC. METHODS: A population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted using Ontario Cancer Registry-linked administrative health data from 2003 to 2011. The mean net costs of EAC care per 30 patient-days (2016 CAD) were estimated from the payer perspective using phase of care approach and generalized estimating equations. Predictors of net cost by phase of care were based on a generalized estimating equations model with a logarithmic link and gamma distribution adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical factors. RESULTS: The mean net costs of EAC care per 30 patient-days were $1016 (95% CI, $955-$1078) in the initial phase, $669 (95% CI, $594-$743) in the continuing care phase, and $8678 (95% CI, $8217-$9139) in the terminal phase. Overall, stage IV at diagnosis and surgery plus radiotherapy for EAC incurred the highest cost, particularly in the terminal phase. Strong predictors of higher net costs were receipt of chemotherapy plus radiotherapy, surgery plus chemotherapy, radiotherapy alone, surgery alone, and chemotherapy alone in the initial and continuing care phases, stage III-IV disease and patients diagnosed with EAC later in a calendar year (2007-2011) in the initial and terminal phases, comorbidity in the continuing care phase, and older age at diagnosis (70-74 years), and geographic region in the terminal phase. CONCLUSIONS: Costs of care vary by phase of care, stage at diagnosis, and type of treatment for EAC. These cost estimates provide information to guide future resource allocation decisions, and clinical and policy interventions to reduce the burden of EAC.

Effects of socioeconomic status on esophageal adenocarcinoma stage at diagnosis, receipt of treatment, and survival: A population-based cohort study.

The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is increasing worldwide and has overtaken squamous histology in occurrence. We studied the impact of socioeconomic status (SES) on EAC stage at diagnosis, receipt of treatment, and survival. A population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted using Ontario Cancer Registry-linked administrative health data. Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine the association between SES (income quintile) and stage at EAC diagnosis and EAC treatment. Survival times following EAC diagnosis were estimated using Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis was used to examine the association between SES and EAC survival. Between 2003-2012, 2,125 EAC cases were diagnosed. Median survival for the lowest-SES group was 10.9 months compared to 11.6 months for the highest-SES group; the 5-year survival was 9.8% vs. 15.0%. Compared to individuals in the highest-SES group, individuals in the lowest-SES category experienced no significant difference in EAC treatment (91.6% vs. 93.3%, P = 0.314) and deaths (78.9% vs. 75.6%, P = 0.727). After controlling for covariates, no significant associations were found between SES and cancer stage at diagnosis and EAC treatment. Additionally, after controlling for age, gender, urban/rural residence, birth country, health region, aggregated diagnosis groups, cancer stage, treatment, and year of diagnosis, no significant association was found between SES and EAC survival. Moreover, increased mortality risk was observed among those with older age (P = 0.001), advanced-stage of EAC at diagnosis (P < 0.001), and those receiving chemotherapy alone, radiotherapy alone, or surgery plus chemotherapy (P < 0.001). Adjusted proportional-hazards model findings suggest that there is no association between SES and EAC survival. While the unadjusted model suggests reduced survival among individuals in lower income quintiles, this is no longer significant after adjusting for any covariate. Additionally, there is an apparent association between SES and survival when considering only those individuals diagnosed with stage 0-III EAC. These analyses suggest that the observed direct relationship between SES and survival is explained by patient-level factors including receipt of treatment, something that is potentially modifiable.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of treatment with non-curative or palliative intent for hepatocellular carcinoma in the real-world setting.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) presentation is heterogeneous necessitating a variety of therapeutic interventions with varying efficacies and associated prognoses. Poor prognostic patients often undergo non-curative palliative interventions including transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), sorafenib, chemotherapy, or purely supportive care. The decision to pursue one of many palliative interventions for HCC is complex and an economic evaluation comparing these interventions has not been done. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of non-curative palliative treatment strategies such as TACE alone or TACE+sorafenib, sorafenib alone, and non-sorafenib chemotherapy compared with no treatment or best supportive care (BSC) among patients diagnosed with HCC between 2007 and 2010 in a Canadian setting. Using person-level data, we estimated effectiveness in life years and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) along with total health care costs (2013 US dollars) from the health care payer's perspective (3% annual discount). A net benefit regression approach accounting for baseline covariates with propensity score adjustment was used to calculate incremental net benefit to generate incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and uncertainty measures. Among 1,172 identified patients diagnosed with HCC, 4.5%, 7.9%, and 5.6%, received TACE alone or TACE+sorafenib, sorafenib, and non-sorafenib chemotherapy clone, respectively. Compared with no treatment or BSC (81.9%), ICER estimates for TACE alone or TACE+sorafenib was $6,665/QALY (additional QALY: 0.47, additional cost: $3,120; 95% CI: -$18,800-$34,500/QALY). The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve demonstrated that if the relevant threshold was $50,000/QALY, TACE alone or TACE+sorafenib, non-sorafenib chemotherapy, and sorafenib alone, would have a cost-effectiveness probability of 99.7%, 46.6%, and 5.5%, respectively. Covariates associated with the incremental net benefit of treatments are age, sex, comorbidity, and cancer stage. Findings suggest that TACE with or without sorafenib is currently the most cost-effective active non-curative palliative treatment approach to HCC. Further research into new combination treatment strategies that afford the best tumor response is needed.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of potentially curative and combination treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma with person-level data in a Canadian setting.

Patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are potential candidates for curative treatments such as radiofrequency ablation (RFA), surgical resection (SR), or liver transplantation (LT), which have demonstrated a significant survival benefit. We aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of curative and combination treatment strategies among patients diagnosed with HCC during 2002-2010. This study used Ontario Cancer Registry-linked administrative data to estimate effectiveness and costs (2013 USD) of the treatment strategies from the healthcare payer's perspective. Multiple imputation by logistic regression was used to handle missing data. A net benefit regression approach of baseline important covariates and propensity score adjustment were used to calculate incremental net benefit to generate incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and uncertainty measures. Among 2,222 patients diagnosed with HCC, 10.5%, 14.1%, and 10.3% received RFA, SR, and LT monotherapy, respectively; 0.5-3.1% dual treatments; and 0.5% triple treatments. Compared with no treatment (53.2%), transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) + RFA (average $2,465, 95% CI: -$20,000-$36,600/quality-adjusted life years [QALY]) or RFA monotherapy ($15,553, 95% CI: $3,500-$28,500/QALY) appears to be the most cost-effective modality with lowest ICER value. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve showed that if the relevant threshold was $50,000/QALY, RFA monotherapy and TACE+ RFA would have a cost-effectiveness probability of 100%. Strategies using LT delivered the most additional QALYs and became cost-effective at a threshold of $77,000/QALY. Our findings found that TACE+ RFA dual treatment or RFA monotherapy appears to be the most cost-effective curative treatment for patients with potential early stage of HCC in Ontario. These findings highlight the importance of identifying and measuring differential benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of alternative HCC curative treatments in order to evaluate whether they are providing good value for money in the real world.

Liver Transplantation is a Preferable Alternative to Palliative Therapy for Selected Patients with Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond the traditional criteria (advanced HCC) are typically offered palliation, which is associated with a 3-year survival rate lower than 30%. This study aimed to describe the outcomes for a subset of patients with advanced HCC who satisfied the Extended Toronto Criteria (ETC) and were listed for liver transplantation (LT). METHODS: All patients listed in the Toronto liver transplantation program with HCC beyond both the Milan and University of California, San Francisco criteria were included in this study. Data were extracted from the prospectively collected electronic database. All radiologic images were reviewed by two independent radiologists. The primary end point was patient survival. RESULTS: Between January 1999 and August 2014, 96 patients with advanced HCC were listed for LT, and 62 (65%) of these patients received bridging therapy while on the waiting list. Bridging therapy led to a significant reduction in tumor progression (p = 0.02) and tumor burden (p < 0.001). The majority of those listed underwent LT (n = 69, 72%). Both tumor progression on waiting list (hazard ratio [HR] 4.973; range1.599-15.464; p = 0.006) and peak alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) at 400 ng/ml or higher (HR, 4.604; range 1.660-12.768; p = 0.003) were independently associated with waiting list dropout. Post-LT HCC recurrence occurred in 35% of the patients (n = 24). Among those with HCC recurrence, survival was significantly better for those who received curative treatment (p = 0.004). The overall actuarial survival rates from the listing were 76% at 1 year, 56% at 3 years, and 47% at 5 years, and the corresponding rates from LT were 93, 71, and 66%. CONCLUSION: Liver transplantation provides significantly better survival rates than palliation for patients with selected advanced HCC.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Different Testing Strategies that Use Antibody Levels to Detect Chronic Hepatitis C in Blood Donors.

AIM: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of seven hepatitis C virus (HCV) testing strategies in blood donors. METHODS: Three of the seven strategies were based on HCV diagnosis and reporting guidelines in Mexico and four were from previous and current recommendations outlined by the CDC. The strategies that were evaluated determine antibody levels according to the signal-to-cut-off (S/CO) ratio and use reflex Immunoblot (IMB) or HCV RNA tests to confirm true positive (TP) cases of chronic HCV infection. Costs were calculated from the perspective of the Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS). A decision tree model was developed to estimate the expected number of true positive cases and costs for the base-case scenarios and for the sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Base-case findings indicate an extended dominance of the CDC-USA2 and CDC-USA4 options by the IMSS Mexico3 and IMSS-Mexico1 alternatives. The probabilistic sensitivity analyses results suggest that for a willingness-to-pay (WTP) range of $0-9,000 USD the IMSS-Mexico1 strategy is the most cost-effective of all strategies ($5,000 USD per TP). The IMSS-Mexico3, IMSS-Mexico2, and CDC-USA3 strategies are also cost-effective strategies that cost between $7,800 and $8,800 USD per TP case detected. The CDC-USA1 strategy was very expensive and not cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: HCV antibody testing strategies based on the classification of two or three levels of the S/CO are cost-effective procedures to identify patients who require reflex IMB or HCV RNA testing to confirm chronic HCV infection.

A Parallel Sliding Region Algorithm to Make Agent-Based Modeling Possible for a Large-Scale Simulation: Modeling Hepatitis C Epidemics in Canada.

Agent-based models (ABMs) are computer simulation models that define interactions among agents and simulate emergent behaviors that arise from the ensemble of local decisions. ABMs have been increasingly used to examine trends in infectious disease epidemiology. However, the main limitation of ABMs is the high computational cost for a large-scale simulation. To improve the computational efficiency for large-scale ABM simulations, we built a parallelizable sliding region algorithm (SRA) for ABM and compared it to a nonparallelizable ABM. We developed a complex agent network and performed two simulations to model hepatitis C epidemics based on the real demographic data from Saskatchewan, Canada. The first simulation used the SRA that processed on each postal code subregion subsequently. The second simulation processed the entire population simultaneously. It was concluded that the parallelizable SRA showed computational time saving with comparable results in a province-wide simulation. Using the same method, SRA can be generalized for performing a country-wide simulation. Thus, this parallel algorithm enables the possibility of using ABM for large-scale simulation with limited computational resources.

Effect of socioeconomic status on hepatocellular carcinoma incidence and stage at diagnosis, a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence is increasing worldwide and cirrhosis is the most important risk factor predominantly caused by chronic viral hepatitis infection. We studied the impact of socioeconomic status (SES) on HCC incidence and stage at diagnosis among viral hepatitis cases. METHODS: A population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted through the Ontario Cancer Registry linked data. Incidence rates were calculated using person-time methodology. Association between SES (income quintile) and HCC incidence was assessed using proportional-hazards regression. The impact of SES on HCC stage was investigated using logistic regression. RESULTS: Among 11 350 individuals diagnosed with viral hepatitis between 1991 and 2010, a crude HCC incidence rate of 21.4 cases per 1000 person-years was observed. Adjusting for age, gender, urban/rural residence and year of viral hepatitis diagnosis, a significant association was found between SES and HCC incidence, with an increased risk among individuals in the lowest three income quintiles (incidence rate ratio, IRR = 1.235; 95% CI: 1.074-1.420; IRR = 1.183; 95% CI: 1.026-1.364; IRR = 1.158; 95% CI: 1.000-1.340 respectively). No significant association between SES and HCC incidence was found after additionally adjusting for risk factors associated with HCC. However, HCC risk factors such as cirrhosis and HIV are associated with SES. Furthermore, no association was found between SES and HCC stage. CONCLUSIONS: The association between SES and HCC incidence is likely because of differences in risk factors across income quintiles. Investigating how SES affects HCC incidence facilitates an understanding of which populations are at elevated risk for HCC.

Surveillance in Patients With Barrett's Esophagus for Early Detection of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Although endoscopic surveillance of patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE) has been widely implemented for early detection of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), its justification has been debated. This systematic review aimed to evaluate benefits, safety, and cost effectiveness of surveillance for patients with BE. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, EconLit, Scopus, Cochrane, and CINAHL were searched for published human studies that examined screening practices, benefits, safety, and cost effectiveness of surveillance among patients with BE. Reviewers independently reviewed eligible full-text study articles and conducted data extraction and quality assessment, with disagreements resolved by consensus. Random effects meta-analyses were performed to assess the incidence of EAC, EAC/high-grade dysplasia (HGD), and annual stage-specific transition probabilities detected among BE patients under surveillance, and relative risk of mortality among EAC patients detected during surveillance compared with those not under surveillance. RESULTS: A total of 51 studies with 11,028 subjects were eligible; the majority were of high quality based on the Newcastle-Ottawa quality scale. Among BE patients undergoing endoscopic surveillance, pooled EAC incidence per 1,000 person-years of surveillance follow-up was 5.5 (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.2-6.8) and pooled EAC/HGD incidence was 7.7 (95% CI: 5.7-9.7). Pooled relative mortality risk among surveillance-detected EAC patients compared with nonsurveillance-detected EAC patients was 0.386 (95% CI: 0.242-0.617). Pooled annual stage-specific transition probabilities from nondysplastic BE to low-grade dysplasia, high-grade dysplasia, and EAC were 0.019, 0.003, and 0.004, respectively. There was, however, insufficient scientific evidence on safety and cost effectiveness of surveillance for BE patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings confirmed a low incidence rate of EAC among BE patients undergoing surveillance and a reduction in mortality by 61% among those who received regular surveillance and developed EAC. Because of knowledge gaps, it is important to assess safety of surveillance and health-care resource use and costs to supplement existing evidence and inform a future policy decision for surveillance programs.

Improved Survival in Patients with Viral Hepatitis-Induced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Recommended Abdominal Ultrasound Surveillance in Ontario: A Population-Based Retrospective Cohort Study.

The optimal schedule for ultrasonographic surveillance of patients with viral hepatitis for the detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains unclear owing to a lack of reliable studies. We examined the timing of ultrasonography in patients with viral hepatitis-induced HCC and its impact on survival and mortality risk while determining predictors of receiving surveillance before HCC diagnosis. A population-based retrospective cohort analysis of patients with viral hepatitis-induced HCC in Ontario between 2000 and 2010 was performed using data from the Ontario Cancer Registry linked health administrative data. HCC surveillance for 2 years preceding diagnosis was assigned as: i) ≥ 2 abdominal ultrasound screens annually; ii) 1 screen annually; iii) inconsistent screening; and iv) no screening. Survival rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and parametric models to correct for lead-time bias. Associations between HCC surveillance and the risk of mortality after diagnosis were examined using proportional-hazards regression adjusting for confounding factors. Overall, 1,483 patients with viral hepatitis-induced HCC were identified during the study period; 20.2% received ≥ 1 ultrasound screen annually (routine surveillance) for the 2 years preceding diagnosis. The 5-year survival of those receiving routine surveillance was 31.93% (95% CI: 25.77-38.24%) and 31.84% (95% CI: 25.69-38.14%) when corrected for lead-time bias (HCC sojourn time 70 days and 140 days, respectively). This is contrasted with 20.67% (95% CI: 16.86-24.74%) 5-year survival in those who did not undergo screening. In the fully adjusted model, compared to unscreened patients, routine surveillance was associated with a lower mortality risk and a hazard ratio of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.64-0.91) and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.68-0.97), corrected for the respective lead-time bias. Our findings suggest that routine ultrasonography in patients with viral hepatitis is associated with improved survival and reduced mortality risk in a population-based setting. The data emphasizes the importance of surveillance for timely intervention in HCC-diagnosed patients.

Trends in relative survival in patients with a diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in Ontario: a population-based retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing and survival rates are poor. Our objectives were to estimate the relative survival over time in patients with HCC in Ontario and to examine potential factors associated with excess mortality risk. METHODS: We performed a population-based retrospective cohort analysis involving patients with a diagnosis of HCC in Ontario between 1990 and 2009 using data extracted from the Ontario Cancer Registry. Relative survival was estimated by controlling for background mortality using expected mortality from Ontario life tables. A generalized linear model was used to estimate the excess mortality risk for important factors. RESULTS: A total of 5645 patients had HCC diagnosed during the study period; 4412 (78.2%) of these patients were male. Improvements in 1-year relative survival were observed across all age groups over time: the highest was among those patients less than 60 years of age who had a diagnosis of HCC during 2005-2009, with 1-year survival exceeding 50% for both sexes. However, the overall 5-year relative survival did not exceed 28%. The excess mortality risk decreased with increased years of follow-up, recent diagnosis, and curative or noncurative treatments for HCC, whereas excess mortality risk increased with age. INTERPRETATION: Although improving, the prognosis for HCC remains poor. Our findings highlight the importance of effective prevention and treatment for HCC to reduce the burden of disease and improve health care systems.

Effectiveness of diagnostic strategies in suspected delayed cerebral ischemia: a decision analysis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) is a serious complication after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. If DCI is suspected clinically, imaging methods designed to detect angiographic vasospasm or regional hypoperfusion are often used before instituting therapy. Uncertainty in the strength of the relationship between imaged vasospasm or perfusion deficits and DCI-related outcomes raises the question of whether imaging to select patients for therapy improves outcomes in clinical DCI. METHODS: Decision analysis was performed using Markov models. Strategies were either to treat all patients immediately or to first undergo diagnostic testing by digital subtraction angiography or computed tomography angiography to assess for angiographic vasospasm, or computed tomography perfusion to assess for perfusion deficits. According to current practice guidelines, treatment consisted of induced hypertension. Outcomes were survival in terms of life-years and quality-adjusted life-years. RESULTS: When treatment was assumed to be ineffective in nonvasospasm patients, Treat All and digital subtraction angiography were equivalent strategies; when a moderate treatment effect was assumed in nonvasospasm patients, Treat All became the superior strategy. Treating all patients was also superior to selecting patients for treatment via computed tomography perfusion. One-way sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the models were robust; 2- and 3-way sensitivity analyses with variation of disease and treatment parameters reinforced dominance of the Treat All strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Imaging studies to test for the presence of angiographic vasospasm or perfusion deficits in patients with clinical DCI do not seem helpful in selecting which patients should undergo treatment and may not improve outcomes. Future directions include validating these results in prospective cohort studies.

The effect of HIV-hepatitis C co-infection on bone mineral density and fracture: a meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: There is a variable body of evidence on adverse bone outcomes in HIV patients co-infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV). We examined the association of HIV/HCV co-infection on osteoporosis or osteopenia (reduced bone mineral density; BMD) and fracture. DESIGN: Systematic review and random effects meta-analyses. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted for articles published in English up to 1 April 2013. All studies reporting either BMD (g/cm2, or as a T-score) or incident fractures in HIV/HCV co-infected patients compared to either HIV mono-infected or HIV/HCV uninfected/seronegative controls were included. Random effects meta-analyses estimated the pooled odds ratio (OR) and the relative risk (RR) and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Thirteen eligible publications (BMD N = 6; Fracture = 7) of 2,064 identified were included with a total of 427,352 subjects. No publications reported data on HCV mono-infected controls. Meta-analysis of cross-sectional studies confirmed that low bone mineral density was increasingly prevalent among co-infected patients compared to HIV mono-infected controls (pooled OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.18, 3.31) but not those uninfected (pooled OR 1.47, 95% CI 0.78, 2.78). Significant association between co-infection and fracture was found compared to HIV mono-infected from cohort and case-control studies (pooled RR 1.57, 95% CI 1.33, 1.86) and compared to HIV/HCV uninfected from cohort (pooled RR 2.46, 95% CI 1.03, 3.88) and cross-sectional studies (pooled OR 2.30, 95% CI 2.09, 2.23). CONCLUSIONS: The associations of co-infection with prevalent low BMD and risk of fracture are confirmed in this meta-analysis. Although the mechanisms of HIV/HCV co-infection's effect on BMD and fracture are not well understood, there is evidence to suggest that adverse outcomes among HIV/HCV co-infected patients are substantial.

A descriptive model of patient readiness, motivators, and hepatitis C treatment uptake among Australian prisoners.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus infection (HCV) has a significant global health burden with an estimated 2%-3% of the world's population infected, and more than 350,000 dying annually from HCV-related conditions including liver failure and liver cancer. Prisons potentially offer a relatively stable environment in which to commence treatment as they usually provide good access to health care providers, and are organised around routine and structure. Uptake of treatment of HCV, however, remains low in the community and in prisons. In this study, we explored factors affecting treatment uptake inside prisons and hypothesised that prisoners have unique issues influencing HCV treatment uptake as a consequence of their incarceration which are not experienced in other populations. METHOD AND FINDINGS: We undertook a qualitative study exploring prisoners' accounts of why they refused, deferred, delayed or discontinued HCV treatment in prison. Between 2010 and 2013, 116 Australian inmates were interviewed from prisons in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia. Prisoners experienced many factors similar to those which influence treatment uptake of those living with HCV infection in the community. Incarceration, however, provides different circumstances of how these factors are experienced which need to be better understood if the number of prisoners receiving treatment is to be increased. We developed a descriptive model of patient readiness and motivators for HCV treatment inside prisons and discussed how we can improve treatment uptake among prisoners. CONCLUSION: This study identified a broad and unique range of challenges to treatment of HCV in prison. Some of these are likely to be diminished by improving treatment options and improved models of health care delivery. Other barriers relate to inmate understanding of their illness and stigmatisation by other inmates and custodial staff and generally appear less amenable to change although there is potential for peer-based education to address lack of knowledge and stigma.

Spending of HIV resources in Asia and Eastern Europe: systematic review reveals the need to shift funding allocations towards priority populations.

INTRODUCTION: It is increasingly important to prioritize the most cost-effective HIV interventions. We sought to summarize the evidence on which types of interventions provide the best value for money in regions with concentrated HIV epidemics. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed and grey literature reporting measurements of cost-effectiveness or cost-benefit for HIV/AIDS interventions in Asia and Eastern Europe. We also collated HIV/AIDS spending assessment data from case-study countries in the region. RESULTS: We identified 91 studies for inclusion, 47 of which were from peer-reviewed journals. Generally, in concentrated settings, prevention of mother-to-child transmission programmes and prevention programmes targeting people who inject drugs and sex workers had lower incremental cost-effectiveness ratios than programmes aimed at the general population. The few studies evaluating programmes targeting men who have sex with men indicate moderate cost-effectiveness. Collation of prevention programme spending data from 12 countries in the region (none of which had generalized epidemics) indicated that resources for the general population/non-targeted was greater than 30% for eight countries and greater than 50% for five countries. CONCLUSIONS: There is a misalignment between national spending on HIV/AIDS responses and the most affected populations across the region. In concentrated epidemics, scarce funding should be directed more towards most-at-risk populations. Reaching consensus on general principles of cost-effectiveness of programmes by epidemic settings is difficult due to inconsistent evaluation approaches. Adopting a standard costing, impact evaluation, benefits calculation, analysis and reporting framework would enable cross comparisons and improve HIV resource prioritization and allocation.