Prevalence of myeloma precursor state monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance in 12372 individuals 10-49 years old: a population-based study from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

We studied the prevalence of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) in younger individuals, age 10-49 years, using samples from the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES) III. NHANES prevalence rates were standardized to the 2000 US total population. Among 12 372 individuals (4073 blacks, 4146 Mexican-Americans, 3595 whites, and 558 others), MGUS was identified in 63 persons (0.34%, 95% CI 0.23-0.50). The prevalence of MGUS was significantly higher in blacks (0.88%, 95% CI 0.62-1.26) compared with whites (0.22%, 95% CI 0.11-0.45), P=0.001. The prevalence of MGUS in Mexican-Americans was at an intermediate level (0.41%, 95% CI 0.23-0.73). The disparity in prevalence of MGUS between blacks and whites was most striking in the 40-49 age-group; 3.26% (95% CI 2.04-5.18) versus 0.53% (95% CI 0.20-1.37), P=0.0013. There was a trend to earlier age of onset of MGUS in blacks compared with whites. MGUS was seen in only two persons in the 10-19 age-group (both Mexican-American), and in three persons in the 20-29-year age-group (all of whom were black). In persons less than 50 years of age, MGUS is significantly more prevalent, with up to 10 years earlier age of onset, in blacks compared with whites.

Factors predictive of survival and estimated years of life lost in the decade following nontraumatic and traumatic spinal cord injury.

STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective chart review. OBJECTIVES: To identify factors predictive of survival after spinal cord injury (SCI). SETTING: Tertiary care institution. METHODS: Multiple-variable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis for 759 patients with SCI (535 nontraumatic and 221 traumatic) included age, sex, completeness of injury, level of injury, functional independence measure (FIM) scores, rehabilitation length of stay and SCI cause. Estimated years of life lost in the decade after injury was calculated for patients vs uninjured controls. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 11.4 years. Population characteristics included paraplegia, 58%; complete injury, 11%; male sex, 64%; and median rehabilitation length of stay, 16 days. Factors independently predictive of decreased survival were increased age (+10 years; hazard ratio (HR (95% CI)), 1.6 (1.4-1.7)), male sex (1.3 (1.0-1.6)), lower dismissal FIM score (-10 points; 1.3 (1.2-1.3)) and all nontraumatic causes. Metastatic cancer had the largest decrease in survival (HR (95% CI), 13.3 (8.7-20.2)). Primary tumors (HR (95% CI), 2.5 (1.7-3.8)), vascular (2.5 (1.6-3.8)), musculoskeletal/stenosis (1.7 (1.2-2.5)) and other nontraumatic SCI (2.3 (1.5-3.6)) were associated with decreased survival. Ten-year survival was decreased in nontraumatic SCI (mean (s.d.), 1.8 (0.3) years lost), with largest decreases in survival for metastatic cancer and spinal cord ischemia. CONCLUSIONS: Age, male sex and lower dismissal FIM score were associated with decreased survival, but neither injury severity nor level was associated with it. Survival after SCI varies depending on SCI cause, with survival better after traumatic SCI than after nontraumatic SCI. Metastatic cancer and vascular ischemia were associated with the greatest survival reduction.

Racial disparities in the prevalence of monoclonal gammopathies: a population-based study of 12,482 persons from the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey.

Multiple myeloma (MM) incidence is markedly higher in blacks compared with whites, which may be related to a higher prevalence of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS). Our objective was to define the prevalence and risk factors of MGUS in a large cohort representative of the US population. Stored serum samples from the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES) III or NHANES 1999-2004 were available for 12,482 individuals of age ⩾50 years (2331 'blacks', 2475 Hispanics, 7051 'whites' and 625 'others') on which agarose-gel electrophoresis, serum protein immunofixation, serum-free light-chain assay and M-protein typing were performed. MGUS was identified in 365 participants (2.4%). Adjusted prevalence of MGUS was significantly higher (P<0.001) in blacks (3.7%) compared with whites (2.3%) (P=0.001) or Hispanics (1.8%), as were characteristics that posed a greater risk of progression to MM. The adjusted prevalence of MGUS was 3.1% and 2.1% for the North/Midwest versus South/West regions of the United States, respectively (P=0.052). MGUS is significantly more common in blacks, and more often has features associated with higher risk of progression to MM. A strong geographic disparity in the prevalence of MGUS between the North/Midwest versus the South/West regions of the United States was found, which has etiologic implications.

Relationship between initial clinical presentation and the molecular cytogenetic classification of myeloma.

Multiple myeloma (MM) consists of several distinct cytogenetic subtypes, and we hypothesized that each subtype may have a unique mode of initial presentation and end-organ damage. We studied 484 patients with newly diagnosed MM to determine the relationship between specific myeloma-defining event (MDE) and the cytogenetic subtype. Patients were divided into four non-overlapping groups based on the MDE at diagnosis: isolated renal failure, isolated anemia, isolated lytic bone disease or a combination (mixed). MM with translocations without trisomies accounted for 30% of all patients, but accounted for 50% of patients with renal failure. Specifically, the t(14;16) translocation accounted for only 5% of all MM patients, but was present in 13.5% of patients with renal failure as MDE. Among patients with t(14;16), 25% presented with renal failure only as MDE. Patients with isolated renal failure as MDE had significantly poorer survival compared with all other groups, whereas patients with bone disease as MDE had the best outcome (P<0.001). Our findings support the hypothesis that in addition to prognostic differences, there is significant heterogeneity in clinical presentation associated with the cytogenetic subtype, suggesting that MM encompasses a group of cytogenetically and phenotypically distinct disorders rather than a single entity.

Suppression of uninvolved immunoglobulins defined by heavy/light chain pair suppression is a risk factor for progression of MGUS.

We hypothesized that the suppression of uninvolved immunoglobulin in monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) as detected by suppression of the isotype-specific heavy and light chain (HLC-pair suppression) increases the risk of progression to malignancy. This approach required quantitation of individual heavy/light chains (for example, IgGλ in IgGκ MGUS patients). Of 1384 MGUS patients from Southeastern Minnesota seen at the Mayo Clinic from 1960 to 1994, baseline serum samples obtained within 30 days of diagnosis were available in 999 persons. We identified HLC-pair suppression in 27% of MGUS patient samples compared with 11% of patients with suppression of uninvolved IgG, IgA or IgM. HLC-pair suppression was a significant risk factor for progression (hazard ratio (HR), 2.3; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-3.7; P<0.001). On multivariate analysis, HLC-pair suppression was an independent risk factor for progression to malignancy in combination with serum M-spike size, heavy chain isotype and free light chain ratio (HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-3.00; P=0.018). The finding that HLC-pair suppression predicts progression in MGUS and occurs several years before malignant transformation has implications for myeloma biology.

Long-term mortality following fractures at different skeletal sites: a population-based cohort study.

UNLABELLED: Adjusting for age, sex, and precipitating cause, the relative risk of death was increased following fractures at most skeletal sites. INTRODUCTION: This study aims to determine long-term survival following fractures due to any cause at each skeletal site. METHODS: In a historical cohort study, 2,901 Olmsted County, MN, USA, residents ≥35 years old who experienced any fracture in 1989-1991 were followed passively for up to 22 years for death from any cause. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) compared observed to expected deaths. RESULTS: During 38,818 person-years of follow-up, 1,420 deaths were observed when 1,191 were expected (SMR, 1.2; 95 % CI, 1.1-1.3). The overall SMR was greatest soon after fracture, especially among the men, but remained elevated for over a decade thereafter. Adjusting for age and sex, relative death rates were greater for pathological fractures and less for severe trauma fractures compared to the fractures due to no more than moderate trauma. In the latter group, long-term mortality was increased following fractures at many skeletal sites. After further adjustment for precipitating cause, overall SMRs were elevated not only following fractures at the traditional major osteoporotic sites (i.e., distal forearm, proximal humerus, thoracic/lumbar vertebrae, and proximal femur) combined (SMR, 1.2; 95 % CI, 1.1-1.3) but also following all other fracture types combined (SMR 1.2; 95 % CI, 1.1-1.4), excluding the hand and foot fractures not associated with any increased mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The persistence of increased mortality long after the occurrence of a fracture has generally been attributed to underlying comorbidity, but this needs to be defined in much greater detail if specific opportunities are to be identified for reducing the excess deaths observed.

Impact of MELD on waitlist outcome of retransplant candidates.

Under the current allocation system for liver transplantation (LTx), primary and retransplantation (ReTx) are treated identically. The aims of this study were (1) to compare the risk of death between ReTx and primary LTx candidates at a given MELD score and (2) to gauge the impact of the MELD-based allocation system on the waitlist outcome of ReTx candidates. Based on data of all waitlist registrants in the United States between 2000 and 2006, unique adult patients with chronic liver disease were identified and followed forward to determine mortality within six months of registration. There were a total of 45,943 patients waitlisted for primary LTx and 2081 registered for ReTx. In the MELD era (n = 30,175), MELD was significantly higher among ReTx candidates than primary LTx candidates (median, 21 vs. 15). Within a range of MELD scores where most transplantation took place, mortality was comparable between ReTx and primary candidates after adjusting for MELD. The probability for LTx increased significantly following implementation of the MELD-based allocation in both types of candidates. We conclude that by and large, primary and ReTx candidates fare equitably under the current MELD-based allocation system, which has contributed to a significant increase in the probability of LTx.

Daclizumab induction therapy in liver transplant recipients with renal insufficiency.

BACKGROUND: The role of interleukin 2 (IL-2) receptor antibodies to avoid the nephrotoxic effects of calcineurin inhibitors in the early post-liver transplant (LT) period is not well defined. AIM: To examine the use of daclizumab induction in LT recipients with renal insufficiency. METHODS: Between 2002 and 2005, 62 patients (median pre-LT creatinine 2.4 mg/dL, IQR 1.9-3.7) received daclizumab induction with tacrolimus being administered when serum creatinine was <2.0 mg/dL. A concurrent comparison group (n = 221, 2002-2005) received tacrolimus-based immunosuppression without daclizumab (median pre-LT creatinine 1.1 mg/dL, IQR 0.9-1.4). A second historical comparison group (n = 103, 1995-2005) not receiving daclizumab was matched to the daclizumab patients by pre-LT serum creatinine (2.2 mg/dL, IQR 1.8-3.1). All patients received mycophenolate mofetil and steroids. RESULTS: Serum creatinine improved in the daclizumab group (-1.0 mg/dL, IQR -2.2 to -0.4) and worsened in the concurrent comparison group (+0.2 mg/dL, IQR 0-0.5) from pre-LT to 4 months. However, there was no difference when daclizumab group was compared with the historical comparison group matched on pre-LT creatinine (median change: -0.8 mg/dL vs. -0.7 mg/dL). Daclizumab induction was not associated with improvement in renal function at 4 months (P = 0.34) after adjusting for pre-LT creatinine, age, gender, hepatitis C status and simultaneous liver kidney transplantation. CONCLUSION: The incremental benefit offered by induction therapy with IL-2 receptor antibodies to preserve renal function is questionable.

An insight into high-resolution mass-spectrometry data.

Mass spectrometry is a powerful tool with much promise in global proteomic studies. The discipline of statistics offers robust methodologies to extract and interpret high-dimensional mass-spectrometry data and will be a valuable contributor to the field. Here, we describe the process by which data are produced, characteristics of the data, and the analytical preprocessing steps that are taken in order to interpret the data and use it in downstream statistical analyses. Because of the complexity of data acquisition, statistical methods developed for gene expression microarray data are not directly applicable to proteomic data. Areas in need of statistical research for proteomic data include alignment, experimental design, abundance normalization, and statistical analysis.

Secular trends in hip fracture incidence and recurrence.

UNLABELLED: The decline in hip fracture incidence is now accompanied by a further reduction in the likelihood of a recurrent hip fracture among survivors of the first fracture. INTRODUCTION: Hip fracture incidence is declining in North America, but trends in hip fracture recurrence have not been described. METHODS: All hip fracture events among Olmsted County, Minnesota residents in 1980-2006 were identified. Secular trends were assessed using Poisson regression, and predictors of recurrence were evaluated with Andersen-Gill time-to-fracture regression models. RESULTS: Altogether, 2,752 hip fractures (median age, 83 years; 76% female) were observed, including 311 recurrences. Between 1980 and 2006, the incidence of a first-ever hip fracture declined by 1.37%/year for women (p < 0.001) and 0.06%/year for men (p = 0.917). Among 2,434 residents with a first-ever hip fracture, the cumulative incidence of a second hip fracture after 10 years was 11% in women and 6% in men with death treated as a competing risk. Age and calendar year of fracture were independently associated with hip fracture recurrence. Accounting for the reduction in first-ever hip fracture rates over time, hip fracture recurrence appeared to decline after 1997. CONCLUSION: A recent reduction in hip fracture recurrence is somewhat greater than expected from the declining incidence of hip fractures generally. Additional research is needed to determine the extent to which this can be attributed to improved patient management.

Prognostic value of the serum free light chain ratio in newly diagnosed myeloma: proposed incorporation into the international staging system.

To determine if the serum free light chain (FLC) ratio has prognostic value in patients with symptomatic multiple myeloma (MM), baseline serum samples from a well-characterized cohort of 790 newly diagnosed MM patients were tested with the FLC assay. FLC ratio was calculated as kappa/lambda (reference range 0.26-1.65). On the basis of the distribution of values, a cutpoint kappa/lambda FLC ratio of <0.03 or >32 was chosen for further analysis. Overall survival was significantly inferior in patients with an abnormal FLC ratio of <0.03 or >32 (n=479) compared with those with an FLC ratio between 0.03 and 32 (n=311), with median survival of 30 versus 39 months, respectively. We incorporated abnormal FLC ratio with the International Staging System (ISS) risk factors (that is, albumin <3.5 g/dl and serum beta(2)-microglobulin >or=3.5 g/l), to create a risk stratification model with improved prognostic capabilities. Patients with 0, 1, 2 or 3 adverse risk factors had significantly different overall survival, with median survival times of 51, 39, 30 and 22 months, respectively (P<0.001). These findings suggest that the serum FLC ratio at initial diagnosis is an important predictor of prognosis in myeloma, and can be incorporated into the ISS for improved risk stratification.

Regression analysis for comparing protein samples with 16O/18O stable-isotope labeled mass spectrometry.

MOTIVATION: Using stable isotopes in global proteome scans, labeled molecules from one sample are pooled with unlabeled molecules from another sample and subsequently subjected to mass-spectral analysis. Stable-isotope methodologies make use of the fact that identical molecules of different stable-isotope compositions are differentiated in a mass spectrometer and are represented in a mass spectrum as distinct isotopic clusters with a known mass shift. We describe two multivariable linear regression models for (16)O/(18)O stable-isotope labeled data that jointly model pairs of resolved isotopic clusters from the same peptide and quantify the abundance present in each of the two biological samples while concurrently accounting for peptide-specific incorporation rates of the heavy isotope. The abundance measure for each peptide from the two biological samples is then used in down-stream statistical analyses, e.g. differential expression analysis. Because the multivariable regression models are able to correct for the abundance of the labeled peptide that appear as an unlabeled peptide due to the inability to exchange the natural C-terminal oxygen for the heavy isotope, they are particularly advantageous for a two-step digestion/labeling procedure. We discuss how estimates from the regression model are used to quantify the variability of the estimated abundance measures for the paired samples. Although discussed in the context of (16)O/(18)O stable-isotope labeled data, the multivariable regression models are generalizable to other stable-isotope labeled technologies.

Normalization of two-channel microarray experiments: a semiparametric approach.

MOTIVATION: An important underlying assumption of any experiment is that the experimental subjects are similar across levels of the treatment variable, so that changes in the response variable can be attributed to exposure to the treatment under study. This assumption is often not valid in the analysis of a microarray experiment due to systematic biases in the measured expression levels related to experimental factors such as spot location (often referred to as a print-tip effect), arrays, dyes, and various interactions of these effects. Thus, normalization is a critical initial step in the analysis of a microarray experiment, where the objective is to balance the individual signal intensity levels across the experimental factors, while maintaining the effect due to the treatment under investigation. RESULTS: Various normalization strategies have been developed including log-median centering, analysis of variance modeling, and local regression smoothing methods for removing linear and/or intensity-dependent systematic effects in two-channel microarray experiments. We describe a method that incorporates many of these into a single strategy, referred to as two-channel fastlo, and is derived from a normalization procedure that was developed for single-channel arrays. The proposed normalization procedure is applied to a two-channel dose-response experiment.

Effect of thalidomide on stem cell collection and engraftment in patients with multiple myeloma.

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of thalidomide on stem cell collection and engraftment in patients with multiple myeloma. We performed a retrospective review of 67 patients newly diagnosed with multiple myeloma at Mayo Clinic and treated with a single regimen prior to stem cell transplantation between January of 2000 and September of 2001. Stem cells were collected from 24 patients who received thalidomide, 200 mg/day, with dexamethasone as initial therapy before stem cell collection. These patients were compared with 43 control patients seen during the same period who had received only one previous regimen before stem cell collection and transplantation. The cumulative thalidomide dose before stem cell collection was 17 000 mg over a median of four cycles (range, 2-7 cycles). The thalidomide and control groups were not significantly different in their baseline characteristics, number of stem cells collected, time to collection, or time to engraftment of neutrophils or platelet count of 50 000/microl. Time to platelet count of 20 000/microl was delayed by a median of 4 days (P=0.008), but platelet transfusion requirements did not differ (P=0.95). We concluded that thalidomide does not substantially affect peripheral cell mobilization or engraftment.

Long-term follow-up of IgM monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance.

The current study was conducted to determine the risk of adverse outcomes among patients with monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) of the IgM class. Two hundred thirteen patients with IgM MGUS were identified in southeastern Minnesota from 1960 to 1994. The primary end point was progression to lymphoma or a related disorder assessed by the Kaplan-Meier method. Patients were followed for a total of 1,567 person-years (median, 6.3 years per subject). Seventeen patients developed lymphoma (relative risk [RR], 14.8) and six progressed to Waldenstrom's macroglobulinemia (RR, 262), while three developed primary amyloidosis (RR, 16.3) and three others had chronic lymphocytic leukemia (RR, 5.7). The relative risk of progression was 16-fold higher in the IgM MGUS patients compared to the white population of the Iowa Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. The risk of progression of MGUS of IgM type to lymphoma or related disorders averaged 1.5% per year throughout the period of observation.

Eligibility for hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation for primary systemic amyloidosis is a favorable prognostic factor for survival.

PURPOSE: Based on the success of hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT) for multiple myeloma, HSCT is being used to treat patients with primary systemic amyloidosis (AL). This article addresses the extent to which eligibility to undergo HSCT is a favorable prognostic feature and explores prognostic factors within the subset of eligible patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The Mayo Clinic amyloid database was queried for all patients with AL seen at the Mayo Clinic from 1983 through 1997 who would have been eligible for peripheral-blood stem-cell transplantation. Inclusion criteria included biopsy-proven amyloid, symptomatic disease, absence of a clinical diagnosis of multiple myeloma, age < or = 70 years, cardiac interventricular septal thickness < or = 15 mm, cardiac ejection fraction more than 55%, serum creatinine < or = 2 mg/dL, and direct bilirubin < or = 2.0 mg/dL. RESULTS: Median age was 56 years (range, 25 to 70) with 79 (34%) older than 60 years. One hundred patients had early cardiac involvement; 41, hepatic involvement; 167, renal involvement; and 39, nerve involvement. The 229 patients have had a median follow-up of 52 months, and 151 have died. The median survival was 42 months with 5- and 10-year survival rates of 36% and 15%, respectively. Important predictors of survival were size of M-component in 24-hour urine, number of involved organs, alkaline phosphatase, performance score, and weight loss. CONCLUSION: The same patients who are eligible for HSCT are a good-risk population who do relatively well with chemotherapy (median survival, 42 months), substantially better than the expected median survival of 18 months for all patients with AL. A randomized trial is needed to assess the true effect of HSCT.

Dietary folate intake, alcohol, and risk of breast cancer in a prospective study of postmenopausal women.

Low B-vitamin intake may increase risk of breast cancer through decreased DNA repair capacity. Alcohol intake increases risk for breast cancer, with evidence from prospective studies of an interaction between alcohol and folate. We explored dietary intake of folate and other B vitamins with risk of breast cancer in a cohort study of 34,387 postmenopausal women. To measure diet, we mailed a food frequency questionnaire; we estimated nutrient intakes and categorized them into four levels: <10th, 11th-30th, 31st-50th, and >50th percentiles. Through 12 years of follow-up, we identified 1,586 cases of breast cancer in the cohort at risk. We estimated relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) through Cox regression models adjusted for age, energy, and other risk factors. Women in the lowest 10th percentile of folate intake from diet alone were at modestly increased risk of breast cancer relative to those above the 50th percentile: RR = 1.21 (95% CI = 0.91--1.61). We examined the joint association of folate intake and alcohol use on risk of breast cancer, with the reference group defined as women with high folate (>50th percentile) and no alcohol use. The RRs of breast cancer associated with low dietary folate intake were 1.08 (95% CI = 0.78--1.49) among nondrinkers, 1.33 (95% CI = 0.86--2.05) among drinkers of < or = 4 gm per day, and 1.59 (95% CI = 1.05--2.41) among drinkers of > 4 gm per day. These results suggest that the risks of postmenopausal breast cancer may be increased among women with low intakes of folate if they consume alcohol-containing beverages.

Retrospective cohort study of 148 patients with polyclonal gammopathy.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify clinical conditions and laboratory values associated with moderate to marked polyclonal gammopathy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patient characteristics, laboratory correlates, evolving disease states, and survival of all patients seen at the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minn, during 1991 with a polyclonal gamma globulin level of 3.0 g/dL or higher were reviewed in this retrospective cohort study. RESULTS: One hundred forty-eight patients were identified (median age, 58 years; 59% female). In 130 patients (88%), only 1 diagnosis was identified. Liver disease was the most common single disease association in 79 (61%) of 130 patients, followed by connective tissue diseases in 28 (22%), chronic infections in 8 (6%), hematologic disorders in 6 (5%), and nonhematologic malignancies in 4 (3%). No difference in gamma globulin levels existed between groups. With a median follow-up of 67 months, 90 (63%) of 143 patients for whom follow-up was available were alive. By multivariate analysis, age, albumin concentration, disease group, and platelet count were predictive of survival. No patient developed myeloma or a clonal plasmaproliferative disorder. CONCLUSION: Moderate to marked polyclonal gammopathy may reflect an underlying condition: liver disease, connective tissue disease, hematologic disorder, infection, or malignancy.

A high bone marrow plasma cell labeling index in stable plateau-phase multiple myeloma is a marker for early disease progression and death.

The plasma cell labeling index (PCLI) is a measure of plasma cell proliferative activity and is an important prognostic factor in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (MM). Occasionally patients have been observed with stable, plateau phase MM with minimal numbers of residual light-chain-restricted monoclonal plasma cells, but a high PCLI. No data are available on the outcomes for such patients. Data from 57 patients with plateau phase MM and a marrow PCLI of more than 1.0% were compared with 105 matched control patients with MM with a marrow PCLI of less than 1.0%. All patients had less than 10% total plasma cells on marrow aspirate and biopsy. The median time to progression and overall survival were 8 months and 20 months, respectively, in the high PCLI group versus 39 months and 56 months, respectively, in the low PCLI group (P < .0001). These findings suggest that a high PCLI in patients with apparently stable, plateau phase MM is an adverse parameter that may predict a short time to disease progression and death.

Cigarette smoking increases risk for breast cancer in high-risk breast cancer families.

Most epidemiological studies of cigarette smoking and breast cancer have failed to demonstrate a strong association. Only one study has been performed on women at high genetic risk, and smoking was reported to be a protective factor. To further explore this observation, we examined the association of cigarette smoking with the risk of breast cancer in a historical cohort study of high-risk breast cancer families. A total of 426 families ascertained through a consecutive series of breast cancer patients (probands) between 1944 and 1952 were followed through 1996. Occurrence of breast cancer and detailed smoking histories for sisters, daughters, granddaughters, nieces, and marry-ins were obtained through telephone interviews between 1991 and 1996. Cox proportional hazards regression, accounting for age, birth cohort, and other risk factors, was used to calculate relative risks and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of breast cancer. All of the models were constructed within strata defined by relationship to the index case (proband), with nonsmokers designated as the referent group. Of the 426 families in the cohort, 132 had at least three incident breast and/or ovarian cancers in the biological relatives at the end of the follow-up period. Among sisters and daughters in these 132 high-risk families, those who ever smoked were at 2.4-fold increased risk of breast cancer (95% CI, 1.2-5.1) relative to never-smokers. No association between breast cancer and smoking was observed among nieces and granddaughters of probands or among marry-ins. When the analysis was restricted to 35 families at highest genetic risk (each containing five breast and/or ovarian cancers), smoking became an even stronger risk factor. Among sisters and daughters, ever-smokers were at 5.8-fold greater risk than nonsmokers (95% CI, 1.4-23.9). Among nieces and granddaughters, the risk of breast cancer associated with smoking was increased 60% (95% CI, 0.8-3.2). These results suggest that smoking may increase risk for breast cancer in families with multiple cases of breast or ovarian cancer, especially those with the strongest apparent familial predisposition.