Estimating recent HIV incidence among young men who have sex with men: Reinvigorating, validating and implementing Osmond's algorithm for behavioral imputation.

HIV incidence information is essential for epidemic monitoring and evaluating preventive interventions. However, reliable HIV incidence data is difficult to obtain, especially among marginalized populations, such as young men who have sex with men (YMSM). Here we evaluate the reliability of an alternative HIV incidence assessment method, behavioral imputation, as compared to serologically estimated HIV incidence. Recent HIV incidence among YMSM (aged 18 to 21 and 18 to 24 years) enrolled in a cohort study in Bangkok from 2006 to 2014 was estimated using two mid-point methods for seroconversion: 1) between age of first anal intercourse and first HIV-positive test (without previous HIV-negative test) (behavioral imputation) and 2) between the date of last negative and first positive HIV test (serological estimation). Serologically estimated HIV incidence was taken as the "gold standard" to evaluate between-method agreement. At baseline, 314 YMSM age 18 to 21 years accumulated 674 person-years (PY) of follow-up since first anal intercourse. Considering that 50 men had prevalent HIV infection, the behaviorally imputed HIV incidence was 7.4 per 100 PY. Of the remaining 264 HIV-negative men, 54 seroconverted for HIV infection during the study, accumulating 724 PY of follow-up and a serologically estimated HIV incidence of 7.5 per 100 PY. At baseline, 712 YMSM age 18 to 24 years (including 18 to 21-year-old men analyzed above) accumulated 2143 PY of follow-up since first anal intercourse. Considering that 151 men had prevalent HIV infection, the behaviorally imputed HIV incidence was 7.0 per 100 PY. Of the remaining 561 HIV-negative men, 125 seroconverted for HIV infection during the study, accumulating 1700 PY of follow-up and a serologically estimated HIV incidence of 7.4 per 100 PY. Behavioral imputation and serological estimation are in good agreement when estimating recent HIV incidence in YMSM.

The finding of casual sex partners on the internet, methamphetamine use for sexual pleasure, and incidence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Bangkok, Thailand: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The finding of casual sex partners on the internet and methamphetamine use have been described as risk factors for HIV infection in men who have sex with men (MSM). However, the interplay between these factors has not been studied prospectively in one design. This study aims to determine the associations between finding casual sex partners on the internet and incident methamphetamine use and HIV infection. METHODS: In this observational cohort study of Thai MSM, we recruited Bangkok residents aged 18 years or older with a history of penetrative male-to-male sex in the past 6 months. Baseline and follow-up visits were done at a dedicated study clinic in central Bangkok. Men were tested for HIV infection at every study visit and for sexually transmitted infections at baseline. Baseline demographics and HIV risk behaviour information were collected at every visit by audio computer-assisted self-interview. We used a descriptive model using bivariate odds ratios to elucidate the order of risk factors in the causal pathway to HIV incidence and methamphetamine use. We used Cox proportional hazard regression analysis to evaluate covariates for incident methamphetamine use and HIV infection. FINDINGS: From April 6, 2006, to Dec 31, 2010, 1977 men were screened and 1764 were found eligible. 1744 men were enrolled, of whom 1372 tested negative for HIV and were followed up until March 20, 2012. Per 100 person-years of follow-up, incidence of methamphetamine use was 3·8 (128 events in 3371 person-years) and incidence of HIV infection was 6·0 (212 events in 3554 person-years). In our descriptive model, methamphetamine use, anal sex, and various other behaviours cluster together but their effect on HIV incidence was mediated by the occurrence of ulcerative sexually transmitted infections. Dual risk factors for both incident methamphetamine use and HIV infection were younger age and finding casual sex partners on the internet. Having ever received money for sex was predictive for incident methamphetamine use; living alone or with a housemate, recent anal sex, and ulcerative sexually transmitted infections at baseline were predictive for incident HIV infection. INTERPRETATION: In MSM in Bangkok, casual sex partner recruitment on the internet, methamphetamine use, and sexually transmitted infections have important roles in sustaining the HIV epidemic. Virtual HIV prevention education, drug use harm reduction, and biomedical HIV prevention methods, such as pre-exposure prophylaxis, could help to reduce or revert the HIV epidemic among MSM in Bangkok. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Johns Hopkins Fogarty AIDS International Training and Research Program.

Young Men Who Have Sex with Men at High Risk for HIV, Bangkok MSM Cohort Study, Thailand 2006-2014.

High HIV incidence has been reported in young men who have sex with men (YMSM) in North America and Western Europe, but there are limited data from Southeast Asia suggesting MSM may be the driver of the HIV epidemic in this region. We described HIV incidence and risk factors among 494 YMSM enrolled in a cohort study in Bangkok, Thailand. The HIV incidence was 7.4 per 100 person-years. In multivariable analysis, reporting use of an erectile dysfunction drug in combination with club drugs, having receptive or both insertive and receptive anal intercourse with men, having hepatitis A infection, having rectal Chlamydia trachomatis, having hepatitis B infection prior to HIV seroconversion, and reporting not always using condoms with male steady partners were significantly associated with HIV incidence in YMSM. Reduction in new HIV infections in YMSM are critical to reach targets set by Thailand and the region.

Subtypes and Risk Behaviors Among Incident HIV Cases in the Bangkok Men Who Have Sex with Men Cohort Study, Thailand, 2006-2014.

HIV-1 incidence and prevalence remain high among men who have sex with men (MSM), and transgender women (TGW), in Thailand. To examine the link between epidemiologic factors and HIV-1 subtype transmission among Thai MSM, we compared covariates of infection with HIV CRF01_AE and other HIV strains among participants in the Bangkok MSM Cohort Study (BMCS). The BMCS was an observational cohort study of Thai MSM and TGW with up to 60 months of follow-up at 4 monthly intervals. Participants underwent HIV/sexually transmitted infections testing and provided behavioral data at each visit. Infecting viral strain was characterized by gene sequencing and/or multiregion hybridization assay. We correlated behavioral/clinical variables with infecting strain using Cox proportional hazards. Among a total of 1372 HIV seronegative enrolled participants with 4,192 person-years of follow-up, we identified 215 seroconverters between April 2006 and December 2014, with 177 infected with CRF01_AE and 38 with non-CRF01_AE subtype. Age 18-21 years (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] 2.2, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.4-3.5), age 22-29 (AHR 1.6, 95% CI: 1.1-2.3), living alone (AHR 1.5, 95% CI: 1.1-2.1), drug use (AHR 2.2, 95% CI: 1.4-3.5), intermittent condom use (AHR 1.7, 95% CI: 1.3-2.3), any receptive anal intercourse (AHR 1.7, 95% CI: 1.2-2.4), group sex (AHR 1.5, 95% CI: 1.1-2.2), anti-herpes simplex virus type 1 (AHR 1.5, 95% CI: 1.1-2.1), and Treponema pallidum antibody positivity (AHR 2.5, 95% CI: 1.4-4.4) were associated with CRF01_AE infection. Age 18-21 years (AHR 5.1, 95% CI: 1.6-16.5), age 22-29 (AHR 3.6, 95% CI: 1.3-10.4), drug use (AHR 3.1, 95% CI: 1.3-7.5), group sex (AHR 2.4, 95% CI: 1.1-5.0), and hepatitis B virus surface antigen (AHR 3.6, 95% CI: 1.3-10.2) were associated with non-CRF01_AE infection. We observed several significant biological and behavioral correlates of infection with CRF01_AE and other HIV strains among Thai MSM. Divergence in correlates by strain may indicate differences in HIV transmission epidemiology between CRF01_AE and other strains. These differences could reflect founder effects, transmission within networks distinguished by specific risk factors, and possibly biological differences between HIV strains.

Incidence of and temporal relationships between HIV, herpes simplex II virus, and syphilis among men who have sex with men in Bangkok, Thailand: an observational cohort.

BACKGROUND: High HIV incidence has been detected among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Thailand, but the relationship and timing of HIV, herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2), and syphilis is unknown. This analysis measures incidence, temporal relationships, and risk factors for HIV, HSV-2, and syphilis among at-risk MSM in the Bangkok MSM Cohort Study. METHODS: Between April 2006 and December 2010, 960 men negative for HIV, HSV-2, and syphilis at entry enrolled and contributed 12-60 months of follow-up data. Behavioral questionnaires were administered at each visit; testing for HIV antibody was performed at each visit, while testing for syphilis and HSV-2 were performed at 12 month intervals. We calculated HIV, HSV-2, and syphilis incidence, assessed risk factors with complementary log-log regression, and among co-infected men, measured temporal relationships between infections with Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and paired t-test. RESULTS: The total number of infections and incidence density for HIV, HSV-2, and syphilis were 159 infections and 4.7 cases/100 PY (95 % Confidence Interval (CI): 4.0-5.4), 128 infections and 4.5/100 PY (95 % CI: 3.9-5.5), and 65 infections and 1.9/100 PY (95 % CI: 1.5-2.5), respectively. Among men acquiring >1 infection during the cohort period, mean time to HIV and HSV-2 infection was similar (2.5 vs. 2.9 years; p = 0.24), while syphilis occurred significantly later following HIV (4.0 vs. 2.8 years, p < 0.01) or HSV-2 (3.8 vs. 2.8 years, p = 0.04) infection. The strongest independent predictor of any single infection in adjusted analysis was acquisition of another infection; risk of syphilis (Adjusted Hazards Ratio (AHR) = 3.49, 95 % CI: 1.89-6.42) or HIV (AHR = 2.26, 95 % CI: 1.47-3.48) acquisition during the cohort was significantly higher among men with incident HSV-2 infection. No single independent behavioral factor was common to HIV, HSV-2, and syphilis acquisition. CONCLUSION: HIV and HSV-2 incidence was high among this Thai MSM cohort. However, acquisition of HIV and co-infection with either HSV-2 or syphilis was low during the time frame men were in the cohort. Evaluation of behavioral risk factors for these infections suggests different risks and possible different networks.

Lubricant Use Among Men Who Have Sex With Men Reporting Anal Intercourse in Bangkok, Thailand: Impact of HIV Status and Implications for Prevention.

This analysis measures prevalence and correlates of consistent lubricant use among a cohort of Thai men who have sex with men (MSM). Lubricant use was queried at the 12-month follow-up visit. Consistent lubricant use was evaluated with logistic regression. Consistent lubricant use was reported by 77.0% of men and was associated with consistent condom use with casual partners, while binge drinking, payment for sex, and inconsistent condom use with casual, and steady, partners were negatively associated. Though consistent lubricant use is common among this Thai MSM cohort, further promotion is needed with MSM engaging in risky sexual practices.

Temporal trends in HIV-1 incidence and risk behaviours in men who have sex with men in Bangkok, Thailand, 2006-13: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: HIV-1 incidence in men who have sex with men (MSM) is often difficult to estimate. We therefore assessed temporal trends in HIV-1 incidence and behavioural risk factors in MSM in Bangkok, Thailand, from 2006 to 2013. METHODS: In this observational study, we used data for clients attending the Silom Community Clinic for voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) services and from the Bangkok MSM Cohort Study (BMCS) to investigate trends in HIV incidence per 100 person-years per quarter in both cohorts. During VCT, basic demographic data were gathered at registration. However, no behavioural risk data were gathered. In the BMCS, we gathered demographic and behavioural data at baseline and at regular study visits using audio computer-assisted self-interviewing. Questions were included about potential risk factors such as drug use, sexual practices, and how often condoms were used. We also analysed behavioural risk factors in the BMCS cohort, using a restricted cubic spline function for time. FINDINGS: From 2006 to 2013, 8176 MSM came for VCT; 1999 (24%) clients were initially seronegative and returned for another test. 235 (12%) individuals seroconverted. The overall HIV-1 incidence was 5.5 per 100 person-years (95% CI 4.8-6.3), with an increasing trend (adjusted p=0.02). In the BMCS, 1372 people were seronegative at baseline; 1259 (92%) had more than one follow-up test and 238 (17%) seroconverted. The overall HIV-1 incidence was 5.3 per 100 person-years (95% CI 4.7-6.1), with an increase and then a decline (inverted U-shaped curve, p=0.0001). Individuals aged 21 years and younger were at significantly higher risk of HIV infection than were those aged 30 years and older in the in the VCT (rate ratio 2.29, 95% CI 1.88-2.78, p<0.0001) and BMCS cohorts (1.99, 1.50-2.65, p<0.0001). Overall, drug use (p=0.03), drug use to enhance sex (p=0.0006), use of drugs for erectile dysfunction (p<0.0001), and 100% condom use (p<0.0001) increased over time, whereas the proportion of individuals reporting receptive anal intercourse decreased (p=0.004). INTERPRETATION: With a sustained high HIV-1 incidence and increasing drug use in MSM in Bangkok, we urgently need innovative and acceptable HIV prevention interventions, especially for young MSM. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Prevalence and correlates of willingness to participate in a rectal microbicide trial among men who have sex with men in Bangkok.

Rectal microbicides (RMs) hold promise as a HIV prevention method to reduce transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). To assess RM trial feasibility in Bangkok, we measured prevalence and correlates of willingness to participate among Thai MSM observational cohort participants. Between April 2006 and December 2010, 1744 MSM enrolled in the Bangkok MSM Cohort Study; at 12 months, RM trial participation willingness was measured. We evaluated correlates of RM trial participation willingness using logistic regression analysis. Participants completing the 12-month visit (81.4%, n = 1419) had a mean age of 27.3 years (SD = 6.1), and 65.5% and 86.1% reported having a steady partner or anal intercourse (AI) in the past four months, respectively. Most (79.1%, n = 1123) participants reported willingness to participate in an RM trial, which, in multivariable analysis, was independently associated with insertive only (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 3.25, 95% CI: 1.82-5.81) or receptive/versatile role AI (AOR = 3.07, 95% CI: 1.88-5.01), and being paid for sex (AOR = 12.15, 95% CI: 1.67-88.21) in the past four months, and believing that people with AIDS look sick (AOR = 1.92, 95% CI: 1.23-2.98). Of hypothetical RM trial features to increase enrollment likelihood, the most (91.1%) compelling was that the study be approved by the Thai ethics committee, followed by the study site offering evening hours (88.9%). Reasons not to participate were not wanting a rectal examination (29.5%) or fluid collected from the penis or anus (24.6%) and not wanting the placebo (23.0%). RM trial participation willingness was high, particularly for those with greater HIV acquisition risk, within this Thai MSM cohort, suggesting feasibility of an RM trial. Addressing potential barriers to trial entry may be useful in educational materials to optimize recruitment.

Evidence of an explosive epidemic of HIV infection in a cohort of men who have sex with men in Thailand.

OBJECTIVE: To assess HIV-prevalence, incidence and risk factors in a cohort of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Bangkok. DESIGN: : Cohort study with 4-monthly follow-up visits conducted between April 2006 and July 2012 at a dedicated study clinic in a central Bangkok hospital. Participants were 1744 homosexually active Thai men, at least 18 years old and residents of Bangkok. METHODS: Men were tested for HIV-infection at every study visit and for sexually transmitted infections at baseline. Demographic and behavioural data were collected by audio-computer-assisted self-interview. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate risk factors for HIV-prevalence and Cox proportional hazard analysis to evaluate risk factors for HIV-incidence. RESULTS: Baseline HIV-prevalence was 21.3% (n = 372) and 60 months cumulative HIV-incidence was 23.9% (n = 222). Overall HIV-incidence density was 5.9 per 100 person-years. Multivariate risk factors for HIV-prevalence were older age, secondary/vocational education (vs. university or higher), employed or unemployed (vs. studying), nitrate inhalation, drug use for sexual pleasure, receptive anal intercourse, history of sexual coercion, no prior HIV-testing, and anti-HSV-1 and 2 and Treponema pallidum positivity at baseline. Multivariate risk factors for HIV-incidence were younger age, living alone or with roommate (vs. with a partner or family), drug use for sexual pleasure, inconsistent condom use, receptive anal intercourse, group sex, and anti-HSV-1 and 2 and T. pallidum positivity at baseline. Having no anal intercourse partners was inversely associated with HIV-incidence. CONCLUSION: The high HIV prevalence and incidence in this cohort of Bangkok MSM documents an explosive epidemic. Additional preventive interventions for MSM are urgently needed.

Sex frequency and sex planning among men who have sex with men in Bangkok, Thailand: implications for pre- and post-exposure prophylaxis against HIV infection.

BACKGROUND: Daily HIV antiretroviral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is being evaluated in clinical trials among men who have sex with men (MSM). However, daily PrEP may not be congruent with sexual exposure profiles of MSM. Here, we investigate sex frequency and sex planning to identify and inform appropriate PrEP strategies for MSM. METHODS: We evaluated sex frequency and sex planning in a cohort of HIV-negative MSM in Bangkok, Thailand. Chi-squared test was used to compare reports of sex on different weekdays; logistic regression was used to identify predictors of sex frequency and sex planning. RESULTS: Of 823 MSM (with a mean age of 28.3 years), 86% reported having sex on two days per week or less, and 65% reported their last sex to have been planned. Sex on the weekend (approximately 30%) was more often reported than sex on weekdays (approximately 23%). In multivariate analysis, use of alcohol, erectile dysfunction drugs, group sex, sex with a foreigner, buying and selling sex, and a history of HIV testing were associated with having sex on three days or more per week. Being aged 22 to 29 years, not identifying as homosexual, having receptive anal intercourse, and not engaging in group sex were associated with unplanned sex. CONCLUSIONS: Intermittently dosed PrEP (as opposed to daily) may be a feasible HIV prevention strategy and should be considered for evaluation in clinical trials. Risk factors for sex frequency and sex planning may help to identify those in need for daily PrEP and those who may not be able to take a timely pre-exposure dose.

Respondent-driven sampling to assess characteristics and estimate the number of injection drug users in Bangkok, Thailand.

BACKGROUND: Since early in Thailand's HIV epidemic, HIV seroprevalence among injection drug users (IDUs) in Bangkok has been around 40%. As Thailand moves to strengthen HIV prevention and care programs for Bangkok IDUs, information on current patterns of drug use and an estimate of the size and composition of the IDU population are essential. METHODS: We used respondent-driven sampling (RDS) to recruit Bangkok IDUs who reported injecting in the past 6 months. IDUs were interviewed with a standardized questionnaire. Logistic regression was used to compare IDUs currently or previously in treatment with those never treated. RDS software was used to estimate IDU population size based on the proportion in treatment. RESULTS: Of 963 IDUs recruited, 828 (86%) were men. One hundred and twelve IDUs (12%) reported never having attended a drug treatment clinic. Young age, unemployment, injection of single drug, and never having been HIV tested were significantly associated with never-in-treatment status. The estimated proportion of IDUs in treatment was 0.55 (95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.60). Dividing the known number of IDUs in treatment (1981 IDUs attending Bangkok drug treatment clinics during October 2003 through March 2004) by this proportion, we estimated the number of IDUs in Bangkok during the period of RDS to be 3595 (95% confidence interval, 3296-3810). CONCLUSIONS: Data obtained through RDS, although subject to limitations from co-existing government drug control policies and possible under-recruitment of out-of-treatment IDUs, will be useful in informing policy, strengthening prevention approaches, and improving methods to monitor the HIV epidemic among Thai IDUs.

Mental health problems among adults in tsunami-affected areas in southern Thailand.

CONTEXT: On December 26, 2004, an undersea earthquake occurred off the northwestern coast of Sumatra, Indonesia. The tsunami that followed severely affected all 6 southwestern provinces of Thailand, where 5395 individuals died, 2991 were unaccounted for, and 8457 were injured. OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, and depression among individuals residing in areas affected by the tsunami in southern Thailand as part of a public health emergency response and rapid assessment. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A multistage, cluster, population-based mental health survey was conducted from February 15 to 22, 2005, of random samples of displaced (n = 371) and nondisplaced persons in Phang Nga province (n = 322) and nondisplaced persons in the provinces of Krabi and Phuket (n = 368). Data were collected using an interviewer-administered questionnaire on handheld computers. A surveillance follow-up survey of the displaced persons (n = 371) and nondisplaced persons (n = 322) in Phang Na was conducted in September 2005. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: Medical Outcomes Study-36 Short-Form Health Survey SF-36 to assess self-perceived general health, bodily pain, and social and emotional functioning; the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire to assess tsunami-specific traumatic events; and the Hopkins Checklist-25 to detect symptoms of anxiety and depression. RESULTS: Participation rates for displaced and nondisplaced persons in the rapid assessment survey were 69% and 58%, respectively. Symptoms of PTSD were reported by 12% of displaced and 7% of nondisplaced persons in Phang Nga and 3% of nondisplaced persons in Krabi and Phuket. Anxiety symptoms were reported by 37% of displaced and 30% of nondisplaced persons in Phang Nga and 22% of nondisplaced persons in Krabi and Phuket. Symptoms of depression were reported by 30% of displaced and 21% of nondisplaced persons in Phang Nga and 10% of nondisplaced persons in Krabi and Phuket. In multivariate analysis, loss of livelihood was independently and significantly associated with symptoms of all 3 mental health outcomes (PTSD, anxiety, and depression). In the 9-month follow-up surveillance survey of 270 (73%) displaced and 250 (80%) nondisplaced participants in Phang Nga, prevalence rates of symptoms of PTSD, anxiety, and depression among displaced persons decreased to 7%, 24.8%, and 16.7%, respectively, and among nondisplaced persons, prevalence rates decreased to 2.3%, 25.9%, and 14.3%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Among survivors of the tsunami in southern Thailand, elevated rates of symptoms of PTSD, anxiety, and depression were reported 8 weeks after the disaster, with higher rates for anxiety and depression than PTSD symptoms. Nine months after the disaster, the rates of those reporting these symptoms decreased but were still elevated. This information is important for directing, strengthening, and evaluating posttsunami mental health needs and interventions.

Symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder and depression among children in tsunami-affected areas in southern Thailand.

CONTEXT: On December 26, 2004, an undersea earthquake occurred off the northwestern coast of Sumatra, Indonesia. The tsunami that followed severely impacted all 6 southwestern provinces of Thailand, where approximately 20,000 children were directly affected. OBJECTIVE: To assess trauma experiences and the prevalence of symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression among children in tsunami-affected provinces in southern Thailand. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Population-based mental health surveys were conducted among children aged 7 to 14 years in Phang Nga, Phuket, and Krabi provinces from February 15-22, 2005 (2 months posttsunami), and September 7-12, 2005 (9 months posttsunami). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Trauma experiences and symptoms of PTSD and depression as measured by a tsunami-modified version of the PsySTART Rapid Triage System, the UCLA PTSD Reaction Index, and the Birleson Depression Self-Rating Scale. RESULTS: A total of 371 children (167 displaced and living in camps, 99 not displaced from villages affected by the tsunami, and 105 not displaced from unaffected villages) participated in the first survey. The prevalence rates of PTSD symptoms were 13% among children living in camps, 11% among children from affected villages, and 6% among children from unaffected villages (camps vs unaffected villages, P = .25); for depression symptoms, the prevalence rates were 11%, 5%, and 8%, respectively (P = .39). In multivariate analysis of the first assessment, having had a delayed evacuation, having felt one's own or a family member's life to have been in danger, and having felt extreme panic or fear were significantly associated with PTSD symptoms. Older age and having felt that their own or a family member's life had been in danger were significantly associated with depression symptoms. In the follow-up survey, 72% (151/210) of children from Phang Nga participated. Prevalence rates of symptoms of PTSD and depression among these children did not decrease significantly over time. CONCLUSIONS: This assessment documents the prevalence of mental health problems among children in tsunami-affected provinces in southern Thailand at 2 and 9 months posttsunami. Traumatic events experienced during the tsunami were significantly associated with symptoms of PTSD and depression. These data may be useful to target mental health services for children and may inform the design of these interventions.