Empirically and clinically useful decision making in psychotherapy: differential predictions with treatment response models.

In the delivery of clinical services, outcomes monitoring (i.e., repeated assessments of a patient's response to treatment) can be used to support clinical decision making (i.e., recurrent revisions of outcome expectations on the basis of that response). Outcomes monitoring can be particularly useful in the context of established practice research networks. This article presents a strategy to disaggregate patients into homogeneous subgroups to generate optimal expected treatment response profiles, which can be used to predict and track the progress of patients in different treatment modalities. The study was based on data from 618 diagnostically diverse patients treated with either a cognitive-behavioral treatment protocol (n = 262) or an integrative cognitive-behavioral and interpersonal treatment protocol (n = 356). The validity of expected treatment response models to predict treatment in those 2 protocols for individual patients was evaluated. The ways such a procedure might be used in outpatient centers to learn more about patients, predict treatment response, and improve clinical practice are discussed.

The natural course of DSM-IV somatoform disorders and syndromes among adolescents and young adults: a prospective-longitudinal community study.

OBJECTIVE: Although somatoform disorders are assumed to be chronic clinical conditions, epidemiological knowledge on their natural course based on representative samples is not available. METHOD: Data come from a prospective epidemiologic study of adolescents and young adults in Munich, Germany. Respondents' diagnoses (N = 2548) at baseline and follow-up on average 42 months later are considered. The follow-up incidence, stability as well as selected baseline risk factors (sociodemographics, psychopathology, trauma exposure) for the incidence and stability of somatoform disorders and syndromes are prospectively examined. Diagnostic information was assessed by using the standardized Munich-Composite International Diagnostic Interview (M-CIDI). RESULTS: Over the follow-up period, incidence rate for any of the covered somatoform diagnoses was 25.7%. Stability for the overall group of any somatoform disorder/syndrome was 48%. Female gender, lower social class, the experience of any substance use, anxiety and affective disorder as well as the experience of traumatic sexual and physical threat events predicted new onsets of somatoform conditions, while stability was predicted by being female, prior existing substance use, affective and eating disorders as well as the experience of a serious accident. CONCLUSIONS: At least for a substantial proportion of individuals, the overall picture of somatization seems to be relatively stable, but with fluctuation in the symptom picture over time. Being female, the experience of substance use as well as anxiety disorder seem to constitute risk factors for the onset of new somatoform conditions as well as for a stable course over time.