Mixed effects modelling of excess mortality and COVID-19 lockdowns in Thailand.

Accurate mortality data are critical for understanding the impact of COVID-19 and learning lessons from crisis responses. But published statistics risk misrepresenting deaths due to limited testing, underreporting, and lack of subnational data, especially in developing countries. Thailand experienced four COVID-19 waves between January 2020 and December 2021, and used a color-coded, province-level system for lockdowns. To account for deaths directly and indirectly caused by COVID-19, this paper uses mixed effects modelling to estimate counterfactual deaths for 2020-2021 and construct a monthly time series of provincial excess mortality. A fixed effects negative binomial and mixed effects Poisson model both substantiate other studies' estimates of excess deaths using subnational data for the first time. Then, panel regression methods are used to characterize the correlations among restrictions, mobility, and excess mortality. The regressions show that mobility reductions modestly curbed mortality immediately upon imposition, suggesting that aversion of non-COVID deaths was a major aspect of the lockdowns' effect in Thailand. However, the estimates are imprecise. An auto-regressive distributed lag model suggests that the effect of lockdowns was through reduced mobility, but the effectiveness appears to have varied over the course of the pandemic.

COVID-19 lockdown policy and heterogeneous responses of urban mobility: Evidence from the Philippines.

Throughout 2020, national and subnational governments worldwide implemented nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain the spread of COVID-19. These included community quarantines, also known as lockdowns, of varying length, scope, and stringency that restricted mobility. To assess the effect of community quarantines on urban mobility in the Philippines, we analyze a new source of data: cellphone-based origin-destination flows made available by a major telecommunication company. First, we demonstrate that mobility dropped to 26% of the pre-lockdown level in the first month of lockdown and recovered and stabilized at 70% in August and September of 2020. Then we quantify the heterogeneous effects of lockdowns by city's employment composition. A city with 10 percentage points more employment share in work-from-home friendly sectors is found to have experienced an additional 2.8% decrease in mobility under the most stringent lockdown policy. Similarly, an increase of 10 percentage points in employment share in large and medium-sized firms was associated with a1.9% decrease in mobility on top of the benchmark reduction. We compare our findings with cross-country evidence on lockdowns and mobility, discuss the economic implications for containment policies in the Philippines, and suggest additional research that can be based on this novel dataset.

Robotic nephroureterectomy in a horseshoe kidney for upper tract urothelial carcinoma.

Upper tract urothelial carcinoma represents a small proportion (5%-10%) of all urothelial cancers. Although there are several management options, in undifferentiated or high-risk cases, surgery in the form of nephroureterectomy is the gold standard. Horseshoe kidney is the most common congenital renal fusion anomaly affecting 1 in 400-600 patients. We present the case of a smoker in her mid-50s with an incidental finding of a papillary lesion in the right renal pelvis of her horseshoe kidney on CT scan. She went on to have endoscopic assessment confirming no other foci of disease. She was definitively managed with a robotic nephroureterectomy.

Sanitation, financial incentives and health spillovers: A cluster randomised trial.

Poor sanitation and its consequent negative health outcomes continue to plague the developing world. Drawing on the finding that financial subsidies have changed behaviour in other health contexts, we conducted a clustered randomised trial in 160 villages in Lao PDR to evaluate the effectiveness of combining financial incentives with Community-Led Total Sanitation (CLTS), a widely-conducted behaviour change program. Villages were randomly allocated to four groups, all of which received CLTS but differed in the type of subsidy offered (none, household, village or both). Using data from a random sample of households with young children and village administrative data, we show that household incentives increased sanitation take-up among the poor, whereas a village incentive increased take-up primarily among the non-poor. Improved sanitation produced positive health spillovers - a 10 percentage point increase in village sanitation coverage decreased the probability of childhood stunting by 3 percentage points.

The COVID-19 crisis will exacerbate maternal and child undernutrition and child mortality in low- and middle-income countries.

The economic crisis and food and health system disruptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic threaten to exacerbate undernutrition in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We developed pessimistic, moderate and optimistic scenarios for 2020-2022 and used three modelling tools (MIRAGRODEP, the Lives Saved Tool and Optima Nutrition) to estimate the impacts of pandemic-induced disruptions on child stunting, wasting and mortality, maternal anaemia and children born to women with a low body mass index (BMI) in 118 LMICs. We estimated the cost of six nutrition interventions to mitigate excess stunting and child mortality due to the pandemic and to maximize alive and non-stunted children, and used the human capital approach to estimate future productivity losses. By 2022, COVID-19-related disruptions could result in an additional 9.3 million wasted children and 2.6 million stunted children, 168,000 additional child deaths, 2.1 million maternal anaemia cases, 2.1 million children born to women with a low BMI and US$29.7 billion in future productivity losses due to excess stunting and child mortality. An additional US$1.2 billion per year will be needed to mitigate these effects by scaling up nutrition interventions. Governments and donors must maintain nutrition as a priority, continue to support resilient systems and ensure the efficient use of new and existing resources.

Isolated duodenal rupture due to go-karting accidents--braking news.

INTRODUCTION: Isolated duodenal injury due to blunt abdominal trauma is extremely rare. We present a series of three such injuries due to go-karting accidents, which presented to our hospital over 5 months. CASE REPORTS: Between October 2007 and February 2008, three cases of D3/D4 duodenal rupture presented to our hospital after go-karting accidents. Trauma occurred as a result of the steering wheel impacting on the abdomen. All patients presented similarly with symptoms of epigastric and right upper quadrant pain. In all cases, computed tomography scanning was highly suggestive of duodenal injury and, in particular, demonstrated presence of retroperitoneal air centred around the duodenum. Treatment required laparotomy and operative repair in all cases. CONCLUSIONS: Duodenal injury presents insidiously due to its retroperitoneal position. A low threshold for investigating patients presenting with epigastric and right upper quadrant pain should be adopted along with active clinical vigilance to exclude serious and life-threatening trauma after go-karting accidents.