Mortality in hospitalised older patients: the WHALES short-term predictive score.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate the WHALES screening tool predicting short-term mortality (3 months) in older patients hospitalised in an acute geriatric unit. METHODS: Older patients transferred to an acute geriatric ward from June 2017 to December 2018 were included. The cohort was divided into two groups: derivation (n=664) and validation (n=332) cohorts. Cause for admission in emergency room, hospitalisation history within the previous year, ongoing medical conditions, cognitive impairment, frailty status, living conditions, presence of proteinuria on a urine strip or urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and abnormalities on an ECG were collected at baseline. Multiple logistic regressions were performed to identify independent variables associated with mortality at 3 months in the derivation cohort. The prediction score was then validated in the validation cohort. RESULTS: Five independent variables available from medical history and clinical data were strongly predictive of short-term mortality in older adults including age, sex, living in a nursing home, unintentional weight loss and self-reported exhaustion. The screening tool was discriminative (C-statistic=0.74 (95% CI: 0.67 to 0.82)) and had a good fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test (X2 (3)=0.55, p=0.908)). The area under the curve value for the final model was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.67 to 0.82). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: The WHALES screening tool is a short and rapid tool predicting 3-month mortality among hospitalised older patients. Early identification of end of life may help appropriate timing and implementation of palliative care.

[Prognostic indices for older adults during the year following hospitalization in an acute medical ward: An update]. / Repérage du haut risque de mortalité durant la première année qui suit une hospitalisation en médecine aiguë chez les patients de plus de 65 ans : revue de la littérature.

CONTEXT: As population grow older, chronic diseases are more prevalent. It leads to an increase of hospitalization for acute decompensation, sometimes iterative. Management of these patients is not always clear, and care provided is not always proportional to life expectancy. Making decisions in acute situations is not easy. OBJECTIVE: This review aims to list and describe mortality scores within a year following hospitalization of patients of 65 years or older. SOURCES: Following keywords were searched in title and abstract of articles via an advanced search in PudMed, and by searching Mesh terms: "aged", "aged, 80 and over", "mortality", "prognosis", "hospitalized", "models, statistical", "acute geriatric ward", "frailty", "outcome". STUDIES SELECTION: Studies published in English between 1985 and 2015 were selected. Last article was published in June 2015. Articles that described prognostic factors of mortality without a scoring system were excluded. Articles that focus either on patients in the Emergency Department and in Intensive Care Unit, or living in institution were excluded. RESULTS: Twenty-two scores are described in 17 articles. These scores use items that refer to functional status, comorbidities, cognitive status and frailty. Scores of mortality 3 or 6 months after hospitalization are not discriminative. Few of the 1-year mortality prognostic score are discriminative with AUC≥0.7. LIMITS: This review is not systematic. CONCLUSION: Practical use of these scores might help management of these patients, in order to initiate appropriate reflexion and palliative care if necessary.

Predictive Factors of Chronic Post-Surgical Pain at 6 Months Following Knee Replacement: Influence of Postoperative Pain Trajectory and Genetics.

BACKGROUND: The frequency of chronic postsurgical pain (CPSP) after knee replacement remains high, but might be decreased by improvements to prevention. OBJECTIVES: To identify pre- and postsurgical factors predictive of CPSP 6 months after knee replacement. STUDY DESIGN: Single-center prospective observational study. SETTING: An orthopedic unit in a French hospital. METHODS: Consecutive patients referred for total or unicompartmental knee arthroplasty from March to July 2013 were prospectively invited to participate in this study. For each patient, we recorded preoperative pain intensity, anxiety and depression levels, and sensitivity and pain thresholds in response to an electrical stimulus. We analyzed OPRM1 and COMT single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Acute postoperative pain (APOP) in the first 5 days after surgery was modeled by a pain trajectory. Changes in the characteristics and consequences of the pain were monitored 3 and 6 months after surgery. Bivariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression were conducted to identify predictors of CPSP. RESULTS: We prospectively evaluated 104 patients in this study, 74 (28.8%) of whom reported CPSP at 6 months. Three preoperative factors were found to be associated with the presence of CPSP in multivariate logistic regression analysis: high school diploma level (OR = 3.83 [1.20 - 12.20]), consequences of pain in terms of walking ability, as assessed with the Brief Pain Inventory short form "walk" item (OR = 4.06 [1.18 - 13.94]), and a lack of physical activity in adulthood (OR = 4.01 [1.33 - 12.10]). One postoperative factor was associated with the presence of CPSP: a high-intensity APOP trajectory. An association of borderline statistical significance was found with the A allele of the COMT gene (OR = 3.4 [0.93 - 12.51]). Two groups of patients were identified on the basis of their APOP trajectory: high (n = 28, 26%) or low (n = 80, 74%) intensity. Patients with high-intensity APOP trajectory had higher anxiety levels and were less able to walk before surgery (P < 0.05). LIMITATIONS: This was a single-center study and the sample may have been too small for the detection of some factors predictive of CPSP or to highlight the role of genetic factors. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that several preoperative and postoperative characteristics could be used to facilitate the identification of patients at high risk of CPSP after knee surgery. All therapeutic strategies decreasing APOP, such as anxiety management or performing knee replacement before the pain has a serious effect on ability to walk, may help to decrease the risk of CPSP. Further prospective studies testing specific management practices, including a training program before surgery, are required.

Pain management and pain characteristics in obese and normal weight patients before joint replacement.

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: The objective was to compare the extent of pain interference and pain medication among persons who were classified as obese [body mass index (BMI)≥ 30 kg m(-2) ] and normal weighted (BMI ≤ 25 kg m(-2) ), before a hip or knee replacement surgery. METHODS: Patients candidate for an orthopaedic surgery were successively enrolled, over a 6-month period, and classified in either the normal weight (BMI ≤ 25 kg m(-2) ) or the obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg m(-2) ) categories. Data were collected using self-administered questionnaires with items concerning pain characteristics, pain medication and pain interference. Two standardized questionnaires were associated: the Brief Pain Inventory (BPI) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression scale (HAD). RESULTS: Fifty-two obese patients (candidates for 24 hip replacements and 28 knee replacements) and 51 non-obese (23 hip replacements and 28 knee replacements) were enrolled. Obese patients suffered from a higher rate of acute pain episodes than non-obese patients (65 versus 44%, P<0.05). Pain interference on walking distance, sleep and relations with others was higher in obese patients. HAD score showed no significant difference between groups. The use of strong opioids and of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) was significantly more important in obese patients (13 versus 0% and 31 versus 14%). CONCLUSIONS: Obese patients suffer more significantly of unrelieved chronic pain, which lowers considerably their quality of life. Pain relief is more difficult to obtain, as it requires stronger pain medication and NSAIDs.