Understanding the genetic complexity of puberty timing across the allele frequency spectrum.

Pubertal timing varies considerably and has been associated with a range of health outcomes in later life. To elucidate the underlying biological mechanisms, we performed multi-ancestry genetic analyses in ~800,000 women, identifying 1,080 independent signals associated with age at menarche. Collectively these loci explained 11% of the trait variance in an independent sample, with women at the top and bottom 1% of polygenic risk exhibiting a ~11 and ~14-fold higher risk of delayed and precocious pubertal development, respectively. These common variant analyses were supported by exome sequence analysis of ~220,000 women, identifying several genes, including rare loss of function variants in ZNF483 which abolished the impact of polygenic risk. Next, we implicated 660 genes in pubertal development using a combination of in silico variant-to-gene mapping approaches and integration with dynamic gene expression data from mouse embryonic GnRH neurons. This included an uncharacterized G-protein coupled receptor GPR83, which we demonstrate amplifies signaling of MC3R, a key sensor of nutritional status. Finally, we identified several genes, including ovary-expressed genes involved in DNA damage response that co-localize with signals associated with menopause timing, leading us to hypothesize that the ovarian reserve might signal centrally to trigger puberty. Collectively these findings extend our understanding of the biological complexity of puberty timing and highlight body size dependent and independent mechanisms that potentially link reproductive timing to later life disease.

Development and evaluation of polygenic risk scores for prediction of endometrial cancer risk in European women.

PURPOSE: Single-nucleotide variations (SNVs) (formerly single-nucleotide polymorphism [SNV]) influence genetic predisposition to endometrial cancer. We hypothesized that a polygenic risk score (PRS) comprising multiple SNVs may improve endometrial cancer risk prediction for targeted screening and prevention. METHODS: We developed PRSs from SNVs identified from a systematic review of published studies and suggestive SNVs from the Endometrial Cancer Association Consortium. These were tested in an independent study of 555 surgically-confirmed endometrial cancer cases and 1202 geographically-matched controls from Manchester, United Kingdom and validated in 1676 cases and 116,960 controls from the UK Biobank (UKBB). RESULTS: Age and body mass index predicted endometrial cancer in both data sets (Manchester: area under the receiver operator curve [AUC] = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.74-0.80; UKBB: AUC = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.73-0.75). The AUC for PRS19, PRS24, and PRS72 were 0.58, 0.55, and 0.57 in the Manchester study and 0.56, 0.54, and 0.54 in UKBB, respectively. For PRS19, women in the third tertile had a 2.1-fold increased risk of endometrial cancer compared with those in the first tertile of the Manchester study (odds ratio = 2.08, 95% CI = 1.61-2.68, Ptrend = 5.75E-9). Combining PRS19 with age and body mass index improved discriminatory power (Manchester study: AUC = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.76-0.82; UKBB: AUC =0.75, 95% CI = 0.73-0.76). CONCLUSION: An endometrial cancer risk prediction model incorporating a PRS derived from multiple SNVs may help stratify women for screening and prevention strategies.

Genome-wide and transcriptome-wide association studies of mammographic density phenotypes reveal novel loci.

BACKGROUND: Mammographic density (MD) phenotypes, including percent density (PMD), area of dense tissue (DA), and area of non-dense tissue (NDA), are associated with breast cancer risk. Twin studies suggest that MD phenotypes are highly heritable. However, only a small proportion of their variance is explained by identified genetic variants. METHODS: We conducted a genome-wide association study, as well as a transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS), of age- and BMI-adjusted DA, NDA, and PMD in up to 27,900 European-ancestry women from the MODE/BCAC consortia. RESULTS: We identified 28 genome-wide significant loci for MD phenotypes, including nine novel signals (5q11.2, 5q14.1, 5q31.1, 5q33.3, 5q35.1, 7p11.2, 8q24.13, 12p11.2, 16q12.2). Further, 45% of all known breast cancer SNPs were associated with at least one MD phenotype at p < 0.05. TWAS further identified two novel genes (SHOX2 and CRISPLD2) whose genetically predicted expression was significantly associated with MD phenotypes. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provided novel insight into the genetic background of MD phenotypes, and further demonstrated their shared genetic basis with breast cancer.

Genetic insights into biological mechanisms governing human ovarian ageing.

Reproductive longevity is essential for fertility and influences healthy ageing in women1,2, but insights into its underlying biological mechanisms and treatments to preserve it are limited. Here we identify 290 genetic determinants of ovarian ageing, assessed using normal variation in age at natural menopause (ANM) in about 200,000 women of European ancestry. These common alleles were associated with clinical extremes of ANM; women in the top 1% of genetic susceptibility have an equivalent risk of premature ovarian insufficiency to those carrying monogenic FMR1 premutations3. The identified loci implicate a broad range of DNA damage response (DDR) processes and include loss-of-function variants in key DDR-associated genes. Integration with experimental models demonstrates that these DDR processes act across the life-course to shape the ovarian reserve and its rate of depletion. Furthermore, we demonstrate that experimental manipulation of DDR pathways highlighted by human genetics increases fertility and extends reproductive life in mice. Causal inference analyses using the identified genetic variants indicate that extending reproductive life in women improves bone health and reduces risk of type 2 diabetes, but increases the risk of hormone-sensitive cancers. These findings provide insight into the mechanisms that govern ovarian ageing, when they act, and how they might be targeted by therapeutic approaches to extend fertility and prevent disease.

Cross-Cancer Genome-Wide Association Study of Endometrial Cancer and Epithelial Ovarian Cancer Identifies Genetic Risk Regions Associated with Risk of Both Cancers.

BACKGROUND: Accumulating evidence suggests a relationship between endometrial cancer and ovarian cancer. Independent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for endometrial cancer and ovarian cancer have identified 16 and 27 risk regions, respectively, four of which overlap between the two cancers. We aimed to identify joint endometrial and ovarian cancer risk loci by performing a meta-analysis of GWAS summary statistics from these two cancers. METHODS: Using LDScore regression, we explored the genetic correlation between endometrial cancer and ovarian cancer. To identify loci associated with the risk of both cancers, we implemented a pipeline of statistical genetic analyses (i.e., inverse-variance meta-analysis, colocalization, and M-values) and performed analyses stratified by subtype. Candidate target genes were then prioritized using functional genomic data. RESULTS: Genetic correlation analysis revealed significant genetic correlation between the two cancers (rG = 0.43, P = 2.66 × 10-5). We found seven loci associated with risk for both cancers (P Bonferroni < 2.4 × 10-9). In addition, four novel subgenome-wide regions at 7p22.2, 7q22.1, 9p12, and 11q13.3 were identified (P < 5 × 10-7). Promoter-associated HiChIP chromatin loops from immortalized endometrium and ovarian cell lines and expression quantitative trait loci data highlighted candidate target genes for further investigation. CONCLUSIONS: Using cross-cancer GWAS meta-analysis, we have identified several joint endometrial and ovarian cancer risk loci and candidate target genes for future functional analysis. IMPACT: Our research highlights the shared genetic relationship between endometrial cancer and ovarian cancer. Further studies in larger sample sets are required to confirm our findings.

Assessment of polygenic architecture and risk prediction based on common variants across fourteen cancers.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have led to the identification of hundreds of susceptibility loci across cancers, but the impact of further studies remains uncertain. Here we analyse summary-level data from GWAS of European ancestry across fourteen cancer sites to estimate the number of common susceptibility variants (polygenicity) and underlying effect-size distribution. All cancers show a high degree of polygenicity, involving at a minimum of thousands of loci. We project that sample sizes required to explain 80% of GWAS heritability vary from 60,000 cases for testicular to over 1,000,000 cases for lung cancer. The maximum relative risk achievable for subjects at the 99th risk percentile of underlying polygenic risk scores (PRS), compared to average risk, ranges from 12 for testicular to 2.5 for ovarian cancer. We show that PRS have potential for risk stratification for cancers of breast, colon and prostate, but less so for others because of modest heritability and lower incidence.

Genomic analysis of male puberty timing highlights shared genetic basis with hair colour and lifespan.

The timing of puberty is highly variable and is associated with long-term health outcomes. To date, understanding of the genetic control of puberty timing is based largely on studies in women. Here, we report a multi-trait genome-wide association study for male puberty timing with an effective sample size of 205,354 men. We find moderately strong genomic correlation in puberty timing between sexes (rg = 0.68) and identify 76 independent signals for male puberty timing. Implicated mechanisms include an unexpected link between puberty timing and natural hair colour, possibly reflecting common effects of pituitary hormones on puberty and pigmentation. Earlier male puberty timing is genetically correlated with several adverse health outcomes and Mendelian randomization analyses show a genetic association between male puberty timing and shorter lifespan. These findings highlight the relationships between puberty timing and health outcomes, and demonstrate the value of genetic studies of puberty timing in both sexes.

External Validation of Risk Prediction Models Incorporating Common Genetic Variants for Incident Colorectal Cancer Using UK Biobank.

The aim of this study was to compare and externally validate risk scores developed to predict incident colorectal cancer that include common genetic variants (SNPs), with or without established lifestyle/environmental (questionnaire-based/classical/phenotypic) risk factors. We externally validated 23 risk models from a previous systematic review in 443,888 participants ages 37 to 73 from the UK Biobank cohort who had 6-year prospective follow-up, no prior history of colorectal cancer, and data for incidence of colorectal cancer through linkage to national cancer registries. There were 2,679 (0.6%) cases of incident colorectal cancer. We assessed model discrimination using the area under the operating characteristic curve (AUC) and relative risk calibration. The AUC of models including only SNPs increased with the number of included SNPs and was similar in men and women: the model by Huyghe with 120 SNPs had the highest AUC of 0.62 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.59-0.64] in women and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.61-0.66) in men. Adding phenotypic risk factors without age improved discrimination in men but not in women. Adding phenotypic risk factors and age increased discrimination in all cases (P < 0.05), with the best performing models including SNPs, phenotypic risk factors, and age having AUCs between 0.64 and 0.67 in women and 0.67 and 0.71 in men. Relative risk calibration varied substantially across the models. Among middle-aged people in the UK, existing polygenic risk scores discriminate moderately well between those who do and do not develop colorectal cancer over 6 years. Consideration should be given to exploring the feasibility of incorporating genetic and lifestyle/environmental information in any future stratified colorectal cancer screening program.

Association between genetic polymorphisms and endometrial cancer risk: a systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Endometrial cancer is one of the most commonly diagnosed cancers in women. Although there is a hereditary component to endometrial cancer, most cases are thought to be sporadic and lifestyle related. The aim of this study was to systematically review prospective and retrospective case-control studies, meta-analyses and genome-wide association studies to identify genomic variants that may be associated with endometrial cancer risk. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Embase and CINAHL from 2007 to 2019 without restrictions. We followed PRISMA 2009 guidelines. The search yielded 3015 hits in total. Following duplicate exclusion, 2674 abstracts were screened and 453 full-texts evaluated based on our pre-defined screening criteria. 149 articles were eligible for inclusion. RESULTS: We found that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in HNF1B, KLF, EIF2AK, CYP19A1, SOX4 and MYC were strongly associated with incident endometrial cancer. Nineteen variants were reported with genome-wide significance and a further five with suggestive significance. No convincing evidence was found for the widely studied MDM2 variant rs2279744. Publication bias and false discovery rates were noted throughout the literature. CONCLUSION: Endometrial cancer risk may be influenced by SNPs in genes involved in cell survival, oestrogen metabolism and transcriptional control. Larger cohorts are needed to identify more variants with genome-wide significance.

Using human genetics to understand the disease impacts of testosterone in men and women.

Testosterone supplementation is commonly used for its effects on sexual function, bone health and body composition, yet its effects on disease outcomes are unknown. To better understand this, we identified genetic determinants of testosterone levels and related sex hormone traits in 425,097 UK Biobank study participants. Using 2,571 genome-wide significant associations, we demonstrate that the genetic determinants of testosterone levels are substantially different between sexes and that genetically higher testosterone is harmful for metabolic diseases in women but beneficial in men. For example, a genetically determined 1 s.d. higher testosterone increases the risks of type 2 diabetes (odds ratio (OR) = 1.37 (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.22-1.53)) and polycystic ovary syndrome (OR = 1.51 (95% CI: 1.33-1.72)) in women, but reduces type 2 diabetes risk in men (OR = 0.86 (95% CI: 0.76-0.98)). We also show adverse effects of higher testosterone on breast and endometrial cancers in women and prostate cancer in men. Our findings provide insights into the disease impacts of testosterone and highlight the importance of sex-specific genetic analyses.

Impact of a Central-Line Insertion Site Assessment (CLISA) score on localized insertion site infection to prevent central-line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI).

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of a newly developed Central-Line Insertion Site Assessment (CLISA) score on the incidence of local inflammation or infection for CLABSI prevention. DESIGN: A pre- and postintervention, quasi-experimental quality improvement study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Adult inpatients with central venous catheters (CVCs) hospitalized in an intensive care unit or oncology ward at a large academic medical center. METHODS: We evaluated CLISA score impact on insertion site inflammation and infection (CLISA score of 2 or 3) incidence in the baseline period (June 2014-January 2015) and the intervention period (April 2015-October 2017) using interrupted times series and generalized linear mixed-effects multivariable analyses. These were run separately for days-to-line removal from identification of a CLISA score of 2 or 3. CLISA score interrater reliability and photo quiz results were evaluated. RESULTS: Among 6,957 CVCs assessed 40,846 times, percentage of lines with CLISA score of 2 or 3 in the baseline and intervention periods decreased by 78.2% (from 22.0% to 4.7%), with a significant immediate decrease in the time-series analysis (P < .001). According to the multivariable regression, the intervention was associated with lower percentage of lines with a CLISA score of 2 or 3, after adjusting for age, gender, CVC body location, and hospital unit (odds ratio, 0.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.06-0.34; P < .001). According to the multivariate regression, days to removal of lines with CLISA score of 2 or 3 was 3.19 days faster after the intervention (P < .001). Also, line dwell time decreased 37.1% from a mean of 14 days (standard deviation [SD], 10.6) to 8.8 days (SD, 9.0) (P < .001). Device utilization ratios decreased 9% from 0.64 (SD, 0.08) to 0.58 (SD, 0.06) (P = .039). CONCLUSIONS: The CLISA score creates a common language for assessing line infection risk and successfully promotes high compliance with best practices in timely line removal.

Genetic predisposition to mosaic Y chromosome loss in blood.

Mosaic loss of chromosome Y (LOY) in circulating white blood cells is the most common form of clonal mosaicism1-5, yet our knowledge of the causes and consequences of this is limited. Here, using a computational approach, we estimate that 20% of the male population represented in the UK Biobank study (n = 205,011) has detectable LOY. We identify 156 autosomal genetic determinants of LOY, which we replicate in 757,114 men of European and Japanese ancestry. These loci highlight genes that are involved in cell-cycle regulation and cancer susceptibility, as well as somatic drivers of tumour growth and targets of cancer therapy. We demonstrate that genetic susceptibility to LOY is associated with non-haematological effects on health in both men and women, which supports the hypothesis that clonal haematopoiesis is a biomarker of genomic instability in other tissues. Single-cell RNA sequencing identifies dysregulated expression of autosomal genes in leukocytes with LOY and provides insights into why clonal expansion of these cells may occur. Collectively, these data highlight the value of studying clonal mosaicism to uncover fundamental mechanisms that underlie cancer and other ageing-related diseases.

Risk Prediction Models for Colorectal Cancer Incorporating Common Genetic Variants: A Systematic Review.

Colorectal cancer screening reduces colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. Risk models based on phenotypic variables have relatively good discrimination in external validation and may improve efficiency of screening. Models incorporating genetic variables may perform better. In this review, we updated our previous review by searching Medline and EMBASE from the end date of that review (January 2014) to February 2019 to identify models incorporating at least one SNP and applicable to asymptomatic individuals in the general population. We identified 23 new models, giving a total of 29. Of those in which the SNP selection was on the basis of published genome-wide association studies, in external or split-sample validation the AUROC was 0.56 to 0.57 for models that included SNPs alone, 0.61 to 0.63 for SNPs in combination with other risk factors, and 0.56 to 0.70 when age was included. Calibration was only reported for four. The addition of SNPs to other risk factors increases discrimination by 0.01 to 0.06. Public health modeling studies suggest that, if determined by risk models, the range of starting ages for screening would be several years greater than using family history alone. Further validation and calibration studies are needed alongside modeling studies to assess the population-level impact of introducing genetic risk-based screening programs.

Genome-Wide Association Studies of Endometrial Cancer: Latest Developments and Future Directions.

Endometrial cancer, the most commonly diagnosed cancer of the female reproductive tract in developed countries, has a heritable component. To date, 16 genetic risk regions have been robustly discovered by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of endometrial cancer. Post-GWAS analyses including expression quantitative trait loci analysis and laboratory-based functional studies have been successful in identifying genes and pathways involved in endometrial carcinogenesis. Mendelian randomization analysis studies have confirmed factors causal for endometrial cancer risk, including increased body mass index and early onset of menarche. In this review, we summarize findings from GWAS and post-GWAS analyses of endometrial cancer. We discuss clinical implications of these findings, current knowledge gaps, and future directions for the study of endometrial cancer genetics.

Joint association of mammographic density adjusted for age and body mass index and polygenic risk score with breast cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Mammographic breast density, adjusted for age and body mass index, and a polygenic risk score (PRS), comprised of common genetic variation, are both strong risk factors for breast cancer and increase discrimination of risk models. Understanding their joint contribution will be important to more accurately predict risk. METHODS: Using 3628 breast cancer cases and 5126 controls of European ancestry from eight case-control studies, we evaluated joint associations of a 77-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) PRS and quantitative mammographic density measures with breast cancer. Mammographic percent density and absolute dense area were evaluated using thresholding software and examined as residuals after adjusting for age, 1/BMI, and study. PRS and adjusted density phenotypes were modeled both continuously (per 1 standard deviation, SD) and categorically. We fit logistic regression models and tested the null hypothesis of multiplicative joint associations for PRS and adjusted density measures using likelihood ratio and global and tail-based goodness of fit tests within the subset of six cohort or population-based studies. RESULTS: Adjusted percent density (odds ratio (OR) = 1.45 per SD, 95% CI 1.38-1.52), adjusted absolute dense area (OR = 1.34 per SD, 95% CI 1.28-1.41), and the 77-SNP PRS (OR = 1.52 per SD, 95% CI 1.45-1.59) were associated with breast cancer risk. There was no evidence of interaction of the PRS with adjusted percent density or dense area on risk of breast cancer by either the likelihood ratio (P > 0.21) or goodness of fit tests (P > 0.09), whether assessed continuously or categorically. The joint association (OR) was 2.60 in the highest categories of adjusted PD and PRS and 0.34 in the lowest categories, relative to women in the second density quartile and middle PRS quintile. CONCLUSIONS: The combined associations of the 77-SNP PRS and adjusted density measures are generally well described by multiplicative models, and both risk factors provide independent information on breast cancer risk.

Assessing the Role of Selenium in Endometrial Cancer Risk: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

Endometrial cancer is the most commonly diagnosed gynecological cancer in developed countries. Based on evidence from observational studies which suggest selenium inhibits the development of several cancers (including lung and prostate cancer), selenium supplementation has been touted as a potential cancer preventative agent. However, randomized controlled trials have not reported benefit for selenium supplementation in reducing cancer risk. For endometrial cancer, limited observational studies have been conducted assessing whether selenium intake, or blood selenium levels, associated with reduced risk, and no randomized controlled trials have been conducted. We performed a two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis to examine the relationship between selenium levels (using a composite measure of blood and toenail selenium) and endometrial cancer risk, using summary statistics for four genetic variants associated with selenium levels at genome-wide significance levels (P < 5 × 10-8), from a study of 12,906 endometrial cancer cases and 108,979 controls, all of European ancestry. Inverse variance weighted (IVW) analysis indicated no evidence of a causal role for selenium levels in endometrial cancer development (OR per unit increase in selenium levels Z-score = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.87-1.14). Similar results were observed for sensitivity analyses robust to the presence of unknown pleiotropy (OR per unit increase in selenium levels Z-score = 0.98, 95% CI 0.89-1.08 for weighted median; OR per unit increase in selenium levels Z-score = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.53-1.50 for MR-Egger). In conclusion, these results do not support the use of selenium supplementation to prevent endometrial cancer.

Genetic predictors of testosterone and their associations with cardiovascular disease and risk factors: A Mendelian randomization investigation.

BACKGROUND: Testosterone supplementation has been linked to increased cardiovascular disease risk in some observational studies. The causal role of testosterone can be investigated using a Mendelian randomization approach. METHODS AND RESULTS: We assessed genetic associations of variants in two gene regions (SHBG and JMJD1C) with several cardiovascular risk factors (lipids, adiponectin, blood pressure, anthropometric traits) plus male pattern baldness, including control outcomes and potential mediators. We assessed genetic associations with coronary artery disease (CAD) risk in the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D consortium (171,191 individuals including 60,801 cases), and associations with CAD and ischaemic stroke risk in the UK Biobank (367,643 individuals including 25,352 CAD cases and 3650 ischaemic stroke cases). Genetic predictors of increased serum testosterone were associated with lipids, blood pressure, and height. There was some evidence of an association with risk of CAD (SHBG gene region: odds ratio (OR) 0.95 per 1 unit increase in log-transformed testosterone [95% confidence interval: 0.81-1.12, p = 0.55]; JMJD1C gene region: OR 1.24 [1.01-1.51, p = 0.04]) and ischaemic stroke both overall (SHBG: OR 1.05 [0.64, 1.73, p = 0.83]; JMJD1C: OR 2.52 [1.33, 4.77, p = 0.005]) and in men. However, associations with some control outcomes were in the opposite direction to that expected. CONCLUSIONS: Sex hormone-related mechanisms appear to be relevant to cardiovascular risk factors and for stroke (particularly for men). However, the extent that these findings are specifically informative about endogenous testosterone or testosterone supplementation is unclear. These findings underline a fundamental limitation for the use of Mendelian randomization where biological knowledge about the function of genetic variants is uncertain.

Exome array analysis identifies GPR35 as a novel susceptibility gene for anthracycline-induced cardiotoxicity in childhood cancer.

OBJECTIVES: Pediatric cancer survivors are a steadily growing population; however, chronic anthracycline-induced cardiotoxicity (AIC) is a serious long-term complication leading to considerable morbidity. We aimed to identify new genes and low-frequency variants influencing the susceptibility to AIC for pediatric cancer patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We studied the association of variants on the Illumina HumanExome BeadChip array in 83 anthracycline-treated pediatric cancer patients. In addition to single-variant association tests, we carried out a gene-based analysis to investigate the combined effects of common and low-frequency variants to chronic AIC. RESULTS: Although no single-variant showed an association with chronic AIC that was statistically significant after correction for multiple testing, we identified a novel significant association for G protein-coupled receptor 35 (GPR35) by gene-based testing, a gene with potential roles in cardiac physiology and pathology (P=7.0×10), which remained statistically significant after correction for multiple testing (PFDR=0.03). The greatest contribution to this observed association was made by rs12468485, a missense variant (p.Thr253Met, c.758C>T, minor allele frequency=0.04), with the T allele associated with an increased risk of chronic AIC and more severe symptomatic cardiac manifestations at low anthracycline doses. CONCLUSION: Using exome array data, we identified GPR35 as a novel susceptibility gene associated with chronic AIC in pediatric cancer patients.

Dissecting Causal Pathways Using Mendelian Randomization with Summarized Genetic Data: Application to Age at Menarche and Risk of Breast Cancer.

Mendelian randomization is the use of genetic variants as instrumental variables to estimate causal effects of risk factors on outcomes. The total causal effect of a risk factor is the change in the outcome resulting from intervening on the risk factor. This total causal effect may potentially encompass multiple mediating mechanisms. For a proposed mediator, the direct effect of the risk factor is the change in the outcome resulting from a change in the risk factor, keeping the mediator constant. A difference between the total effect and the direct effect indicates that the causal pathway from the risk factor to the outcome acts at least in part via the mediator (an indirect effect). Here, we show that Mendelian randomization estimates of total and direct effects can be obtained using summarized data on genetic associations with the risk factor, mediator, and outcome, potentially from different data sources. We perform simulations to test the validity of this approach when there is unmeasured confounding and/or bidirectional effects between the risk factor and mediator. We illustrate this method using the relationship between age at menarche and risk of breast cancer, with body mass index (BMI) as a potential mediator. We show an inverse direct causal effect of age at menarche on risk of breast cancer (independent of BMI), and a positive indirect effect via BMI. In conclusion, multivariable Mendelian randomization using summarized genetic data provides a rapid and accessible analytic strategy that can be undertaken using publicly available data to better understand causal mechanisms.

Genomic analyses identify hundreds of variants associated with age at menarche and support a role for puberty timing in cancer risk.

The timing of puberty is a highly polygenic childhood trait that is epidemiologically associated with various adult diseases. Using 1000 Genomes Project-imputed genotype data in up to ∼370,000 women, we identify 389 independent signals (P < 5 × 10-8) for age at menarche, a milestone in female pubertal development. In Icelandic data, these signals explain ∼7.4% of the population variance in age at menarche, corresponding to ∼25% of the estimated heritability. We implicate ∼250 genes via coding variation or associated expression, demonstrating significant enrichment in neural tissues. Rare variants near the imprinted genes MKRN3 and DLK1 were identified, exhibiting large effects when paternally inherited. Mendelian randomization analyses suggest causal inverse associations, independent of body mass index (BMI), between puberty timing and risks for breast and endometrial cancers in women and prostate cancer in men. In aggregate, our findings highlight the complexity of the genetic regulation of puberty timing and support causal links with cancer susceptibility.