Climate-Water Adaptation for Future US Electricity Infrastructure.

Future climate-water conditions are anticipated to increase electricity demand, reduce transmission capacity, and limit power production. Yet, typical electricity capacity expansion planning does not consider climate-water constraints. We project four alternative U.S. power system configurations using an iterative modeling and data exchange platform that integrates climate-driven hydrological, thermal power plant, and capacity expansion models. Through a comparison with traditional modeling approaches, we show that this novel approach provides greater confidence in electricity capacity projections by incorporating feasibility checks that adjust infrastructure development to reach grid reliability thresholds under climate-water constraints. Initial projections without climate-water impacts on electricity generation show future power systems become less vulnerable, independent of climate-water adaptation, as economic drivers increase renewable and natural gas-based capacity, while water-intensive coal and nuclear plants retire. However, power systems may face reliability challenges without climate-water adaptation, revealing the significance of incorporating climate-water impacts into power system planning. Climate-adjusted (Iterative approach) projections require a 5.3-12.0% increase in national-level capacity, relative to Initial projections, leading to an additional $125-143 billion (5.0-7.0%) in infrastructure costs. Variable renewable and natural gas technologies account for nearly all the additional capacity and, together with regional trade-offs in electricity generation, enhance grid performance to reach reliability thresholds. These adaptation transitions also lower water use and emissions, contributing to climate change mitigation, and highlight the trade-offs and impacts of both near and long-term electricity generation planning decisions.

Geographic footprint of electricity use for water services in the Western U.S.

A significant fraction of our nation's electricity use goes to lift, convey, and treat water, while the resulting expenditures on electricity represent a key budgetary consideration for water service providers. To improve understanding of the electricity-for-water interdependency, electricity used in providing water services is mapped at the regional, state and county level for the 17-conterminous states in the Western U.S. This study is unique in estimating electricity use for large-scale conveyance and agricultural pumping as well as mapping these electricity uses along with that for drinking and wastewater services at a state and county level. Results indicate that drinking and wastewater account for roughly 2% of total West-wide electricity use, while an additional 1.2% is consumed by large-scale conveyance projects and 2.6% is consumed by agricultural pumping. The percent of electricity used for water services varies strongly by state with some as high as 34%, while other states expend less than 1%. Every county in the West uses some electricity for water services; however, there is a large disparity in use ranging from 10 MWh/yr to 5.8 TWh/yr. These results support long-term transmission planning in the Western U.S. by characterizing an important component of the electric load.

Potential impacts of electric power production utilizing natural gas, renewables and carbon capture and sequestration on US Freshwater resources.

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) has important implications relative to future thermoelectric water use. A bounding analysis is performed using past greenhouse gas emission policy proposals and assumes either all effected capacity retires (lower water use bound) or is retrofitted (upper bound). The analysis is performed in the context of recent trends in electric power generation expansion, namely high penetration of natural gas and renewables along with constrained cooling system options. Results indicate thermoelectric freshwater withdrawals nationwide could increase by roughly 1% or decrease by up to 60% relative to 2009 levels, while consumption could increase as much as 21% or decrease as much as 28%. To identify where changes in freshwater use might be problematic at a regional level, electric power production has been mapped onto watersheds with limited water availability (where consumption exceeds 70% of gauged streamflow). Results suggest that between 0.44 and 0.96 Mm(3)/d of new thermoelectric freshwater consumption could occur in watersheds with limited water availability, while power plant retirements in these watersheds could yield 0.90 to 1.0 Mm(3)/d of water savings.

Cooperative modeling: linking science, communication, and ground water planning.

Equitable allocation of ground water resources is a growing challenge due to both the increasing demand for water and the competing values placed on its use. While scientists can contribute to a technically defensible basis for water resource planning, this framework must be cast in a broader societal and environmental context. Given the complexity and often contentious nature of resource allocation, success requires a process for inclusive and transparent sharing of ideas complemented by tools to structure, quantify, and visualize the collective understanding and data, providing an informed basis of dialogue, exploration, and decision making. Ideally, a process that promotes shared learning leading to cooperative and adaptive planning decisions. While variously named, mediated modeling, group modeling, cooperative modeling, shared vision planning, or computer-mediated collaborative decision making are similar approaches aimed at meeting these objectives. In this paper, we frame "cooperative modeling" in the context of ground water planning and illustrate the process with two brief examples.

Use of X-ray absorption imaging to examine heterogeneous diffusion in fractured crystalline rocks.

Heterogeneous diffusion in different regions of a fractured granodiorite from Japan has been observed and measured through the use of X-ray absorption imaging. These regions include gouge-filled fractures, recrystallized fracture-filling material and hydrothermally altered matrix. With the X-ray absorption imaging technique, porosity, relative concentration, and relative mass of an iodine tracer were imaged in two dimensions with a sub-millimeter pixel size. Because portions of the samples analyzed have relatively low porosity values, imaging errors can potentially impact the results. For this reason, efforts were made to better understand and quantify this error. Based on the X-ray data, pore diffusion coefficients (Dp) for the different regions were estimated assuming a single diffusion rate and a lognormal multirate distribution of Dp. Results show Dp for the gouge-filled fractures are over an order of magnitude greater than those of the recrystallized fracture-filling material, which in turn is approximately two times greater than those for the altered matrix. The recrystallized fracture-filling material was found to exhibit the greatest degree of variability. The results of these experiments also provide evidence that diffusion from advective zones in fractures through the gouge-filled fractures and recrystallized fracture-filling material could increase the pore space available for matrix diffusion. This evidence is important for understanding the performance of potential nuclear waste repositories in crystalline rocks as diffusion is thought to be an important retardation mechanism for radionuclides.

Visualization experiment to investigate capillary barrier performance in the context of a Yucca Mountain emplacement drift.

The use of capillary barriers as engineered backfill systems to divert water away from radioactive waste potentially stored in a Yucca Mountain emplacement drift is investigated. We designed and conducted a flow visualization experiment to investigate capillary barrier performance in this context. A two-dimensional, thin slab, test system replicated the physical emplacement drift to one-quarter scale (1.4-m diameter) and included the simulated drift wall, waste canister, pedestal, capillary barrier backfill, and host-rock fracture system. Water was supplied at the top of the simulated drift and allowed to discharge by way of wicks located along the left wall of the cell (simulated fractures) or by a gravity drain at the bottom of the right side (simulated impermeable rock with floor drain). Photographs captured the migration of water and a blue dye tracer within the system, analytical balances measured the mass balance of water, while tensiometers measured the capillary pressure at numerous locations. Of particular concern to this test was the drainage of the capillary barrier, which terminates against the drift wall. We found that while the simulated fractures (left side) and drain (right side) each influenced the performance of the capillary barrier at early time, they had little differential affect at later times. Also of concern was the small disparity in capillary properties between the fine and coarse layer (limited by the need of a fine-grained material that would not filter into the coarse layer under dry conditions). While the capillary barrier was able to divert the majority of flow toward the edges of the system and away from the simulated waste canister, the barrier did not preclude flow in the coarse layer, which was noted to be visually wet next to the waste canister on day 92 and was continuing to take on water at termination on day 112.