Growth limits of Listeria monocytogenes as a function of temperature, pH, NaCl, and lactic acid.

Models describing the limits of growth of pathogens under multiple constraints will aid management of the safety of foods which are sporadically contaminated with pathogens and for which subsequent growth of the pathogen would significantly increase the risk of food-borne illness. We modeled the effects of temperature, water activity, pH, and lactic acid levels on the growth of two strains of Listeria monocytogenes in tryptone soya yeast extract broth. The results could be divided unambiguously into "growth is possible" or "growth is not possible" classes. We observed minor differences in growth characteristics of the two L. monocytogenes strains. The data follow a binomial probability distribution and may be modeled using logistic regression. The model used is derived from a growth rate model in a manner similar to that described in a previously published work (K. A. Presser, T. Ross, and D. A. Ratkowsky, Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 64:1773-1779, 1998). We used "nonlinear logistic regression" to estimate the model parameters and developed a relatively simple model that describes our experimental data well. The fitted equations also described well the growth limits of all strains of L. monocytogenes reported in the literature, except at temperatures beyond the limits of the experimental data used to develop the model (3 to 35 degrees C). The models developed will improve the rigor of microbial food safety risk assessment and provide quantitative data in a concise form for the development of safer food products and processes.

Quantifying the hurdle concept by modelling the bacterial growth/no growth interface.

The hurdle concept described eloquently over many years by Professor Leistner and his colleagues draws attention to the interaction of factors that affect microbial behaviour in foods. Under some circumstances these effects are additive. Under others the implication is that synergistic interactions lead to a combined effect of greater magnitude than the sum of constraints applied individually. Predictive modelling studies on the combined effects of temperature and water activity and temperature and pH suggest that the effect of these combinations on growth rate is independent. Where the effect of the two factors is interactive rather than independent is at the point where growth ceases--the growth/no growth interface. An interesting and consistent observation is that a very sharp cut off occurs between conditions permitting growth and those preventing growth, allowing those combinations of factors to be defined precisely and modelled. Growth/no growth interface models quantify the effects of various hurdles on the probability of growth and define combinations at which the growth rate is zero or the lag time infinite. Increasing the stringency of one or more hurdles at the interface by only a small amount will significantly decrease the probability of an organism growing. Understanding physiological processes occurring near the growth/no growth interface and changes induced by moving from one side of the interface to the other may well provide insights that can be exploited in a new generation of food preservation techniques with minimal impact on product quality.

Predictive modelling of the growth and survival of Listeria in fishery products.

Predictive microbiology provides a powerful tool to aid the exposure assessment phase of 'quantitative microbial risk assessment'. Using predictive models changes in microbial populations on foods between the point of production/harvest and the point of eating can be estimated from changes in product parameters (temperature, storage atmosphere, pH, salt/water activity, etc.). Thus, it is possible to infer exposure to Listeria monocytogenes at the time of consumption from the initial microbiological condition of the food and its history from production to consumption. Predictive microbiology models have immediate practical application to improve microbial food safety and quality, and are leading to development of a quantitative understanding of the microbial ecology of foods. While models are very useful decision-support tools it must be remembered that models are, at best, only a simplified representation of reality. As such, application of model predictions should be tempered by previous experience, and used with cognisance of other microbial ecology principles that may not be included in the model. Nonetheless, it is concluded that predictive models, successfully validated in agreement with defined performance criteria, will be an essential element of exposure assessment within formal quantitative risk assessment. Sources of data and models relevant to assessment of the human health risk of L. monocytogenes in seafoods are identified. Limitations of the current generation of predictive microbiology models are also discussed. These limitations, and their consequences, must be recognised and overtly considered so that the risk assessment process remains transparent. Furthermore, there is a need to characterise and incorporate into models the extent of variability in microbial responses. The integration of models for microbial growth, growth limits or inactivation into models that can predict both increases and decreases in microbial populations over time will also improve the utility of predictive models for exposure assessment. All of these issues are the subject of ongoing research.