The impact of bariatric surgery on disease activity and progression of multiple sclerosis: A nationwide matched cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Surgical outcomes in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) following metabolic surgery appear to be similar compared to those of the general bariatric population. OBJECTIVE: To study the impact of metabolic surgery on the clinical course of MS. METHODS: Using data from the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry and the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis register, we compared disease outcomes in 122 cases of MS who had undergone metabolic surgery with those of 122 cases of MS without surgery, matched by a two-staged Propensity score match, including age at disease onset, sex, MS phenotype, body mass index, and preoperative severity of MS as measured by the Expanded Disability Status Scale. RESULTS: The time to 6-month confirmed disability progression during the first five years postbaseline was shorter among the surgical patients (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.31, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.09-4.90; p = 0.03). No differences were observed regarding postoperative annual relapse rate (p = 0.24) or time to first postoperative relapse (p = 0.52). CONCLUSION: Although metabolic surgery appears to be a safe and efficient treatment of obesity in patients with MS, the clinical course of the disease might be negatively affected. Long-term nutritional follow-up after surgery and supplementation maintenance are crucial, particularly among those with preoperative deficits.

Immunogenicity of COVID-19 vaccines in patients with haematological malignancy: A systematic review and meta-analysis

The objectives of this study were to assess the immunogenicity and safety of COVID-19 vaccines in patients with haematological malignancy. A systematic review and meta-analysis of clinical studies of immune responses to COVID-19 vaccination stratified by underlying malignancy and published from 1 January 2021 to 31 August 2021 was conducted using MEDLINE, EMBASE and CENTRAL. Primary outcome was the rate of seropositivity following 2 doses of COVID-19 vaccine with rates of seropositivity following 1 dose, rates of positive neutralising antibody (nAb), cellular responses and adverse events as secondary outcomes. Rates were pooled from single arm studies while rates of seropositivity were compared against the rate in healthy controls for comparator studies using a random effects model and expressed as a pooled odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals. Forty-four studies (16 mixed group, 28 disease specific) with 7064 patients were included in the analysis (2331 following first dose, 4733 following second dose). Overall seropositivity rates were 61-67% following 2 doses and 37-51% following 1 dose of COVID-19 vaccine. The lowest seropositivity rate was 51% in CLL patients and was highest in patients with acute leukaemia (93%). Following 1 dose, nAb and cellular response rates were 18-63% and 33-86% respectively. Active treatment, ongoing or recent treatment with targeted and CD-20 monoclonal antibody therapies within 12 months was associated with poor COVID-19 vaccine immune responses. New approaches to prevention are urgently required to reduce COVID-19 infection morbidity and mortality in high-risk patient groups that respond poorly to COVID-19 vaccination.

The impact of three progressively introduced interventions on second wave daily COVID-19 case numbers in Melbourne, Australia

BackgroundThe city of Melbourne, Australia experienced two waves of the COVID-19 epidemic peaking, the first in March and a more substantial wave in July 2020. During the second wave, a series of control measure were progressively introduced that initially slowed the growth of the epidemic then resulted in decreasing cases until there was no detectable local transmission. MethodsTo determine the relative efficacy of the progressively introduced intervention measures, we modelled the second wave as a series of exponential growth and decay curves. We used a linear regression of the log of daily cases vs time, using a four-segment linear spline model corresponding to implementation of the three successive major public health measures. The primary model used all reported cases between 14 June and 15 September then compared the projection of the model with observed cases predict future case trajectory up until the 31 October to assess the use of exponential models in projecting the future course and planning future interventions. The main outcome measures were the exponential daily growth constants, analysis of residuals and estimates of the 95% confidence intervals for the expected case distributions, comparison of predicted daily cases. ResultsThe exponential growth/decay constants in the primary analysis were: 0.122 (s.e. 0.004), 0.035 (s.e. 0.005), -0.037 (s.e. 0.011), and -0.069 (s.e. 0.003) for the initial growth rate, Stage 3, stage 3 + compulsory masks and Stage 4, respectively. Extrapolation of the regression model from the 14 September to the 31 October matched the decline in observed cases over this period. ConclusionsThe four-segment exponential model provided an excellent fit of the observed reported case data and predicted the day-to-day range of expected cases. The extrapolated regression accurately predicted the decline leading to epidemic control in Melbourne.

Reanalysis of the Pfizer mRNA BNT162b2 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine data fails to find any increased efficacy following the boost: Implications for vaccination policy and our understanding of the mode of action

BackgroundIn clinical trials two vaccinations with mRNA vaccines have shown high efficacy in preventing COVID-19. However, in the context of a pandemic, the time to generation of protective immunity, the need for and timing of a second vaccination are matters of legitimate debate. This manuscript explores the efficacy and timing of the second dose COVID-19 vaccines, including a reanalysis of data from the Pfizer mRNA BNT162b2 mRNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine phase 3 study. Methods and findingsA non-weighted three-segment, two knot linear regression was fitted to the published cumulative infection incidence from the Pfizer BNT162b2 vaccine Phase III trial using the lspine routine in R. The optimal knot days were estimated through sensitivity analysis and the confidence limits for efficacy estimates were determined by Monte Carlo Simulations. This analysis showed the vaccine was effective from day 11 post first vaccination. The estimated efficacy over the period 11 to 28 days post first vaccination was 0.94 and there was no detectable increase in efficacy following the second vaccination. The efficacy post first vaccination substantially preceded the development of detectable serum neutralizing antibody. ConclusionsStrongly protective immunity develops rapidly following a single vaccination and at least in the short period covered by the timetable of the Phase III trial, there was no additional benefit from a second vaccination. This increases options for use of this vaccine, e.g., for ring fence vaccination, for use in travelers and for mass vaccination rollout. It highlights the need for further research into duration of immunity following a single vaccination and for understanding mechanisms of protection.

Associations of DMT therapies with COVID-19 severity in multiple sclerosis

Background: People with multiple sclerosis (MS) are a vulnerable group for severe COVID-19, particularly those taking immunosuppressive disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). We examined the characteristics of COVID-19 severity in an international sample of people with MS. Methods: Data from 12 data-sources in 28 countries were aggregated. Demographic and clinical covariates were queried, alongside COVID-19 clinical severity outcomes, hospitalisation, admission to ICU, requiring artificial ventilation, and death. Characteristics of outcomes were assessed in patients with suspected/confirmed COVID-19 using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression. Results: 657 (28.1%) with suspected and 1,683 (61.9%) with confirmed COVID-19 were analysed. Older age, progressive MS-phenotype, and higher disability were associated with worse COVID-19 outcomes. Compared to dimethyl fumarate, ocrelizumab and rituximab were associated with hospitalisation (aOR=1.56,95%CI=1.01-2.41; aOR=2.43,95%CI=1.48-4.02) and ICU admission (aOR=2.30,95%CI=0.98-5.39; aOR=3.93,95%CI=1.56-9.89), though only rituximab was associated with higher risk of artificial ventilation (aOR=4.00,95%CI=1.54-10.39). Compared to pooled other DMTs, ocrelizumab and rituximab were associated with hospitalisation (aOR=1.75,95%CI=1.29-2.38; aOR=2.76,95%CI=1.87-4.07) and ICU admission (aOR=2.55,95%CI=1.49-4.36; aOR=4.32,95%CI=2.27-8.23) but only rituximab with artificial ventilation (aOR=6.15,95%CI=3.09-12.27). Compared to natalizumab, ocrelizumab and rituximab were associated with hospitalisation (aOR=1.86,95%CI=1.13-3.07; aOR=2.88,95%CI=1.68-4.92) and ICU admission (aOR=2.13,95%CI=0.85-5.35; aOR=3.23,95%CI=1.17-8.91), but only rituximab with ventilation (aOR=5.52,95%CI=1.71-17.84). Importantly, associations persisted on restriction to confirmed COVID-19 cases. No associations were observed between DMTs and death. Conclusions: Using the largest cohort of people with MS and COVID-19 available, we demonstrated consistent associations of rituximab with increased risk of hospitalisation, ICU admission, and requiring artificial ventilation, and ocrelizumab with hospitalisation and ICU admission, suggesting their use may be a risk factor for more severe COVID-19.

Description of social contacts among student cases of pandemic influenza during the containment phase, Melbourne, Australia, 2009

Introduction@#Students comprised the majority of early cases of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Melbourne, Australia. Students and school settings were targeted for public health interventions following the emergence of pH1N1. This study was conducted to describe changes in social contacts among the earliest confirmed student cases of pH1N1 in Melbourne, Australia, to inform future pandemic control policy and explore transmission model assumptions@*Methods@#A retrospective cross-sectional behavioural study of student cases with laboratory-confirmed pH1N1 between 28 April and 3 June 2009 was conducted in 2009. Demographics, symptom onset dates and detailed information on regular and additional extracurricular activities were collected. Summary measures for activities were calculated, including median group size and median number of close contacts and attendance during the students' exposure and infectious periods or during school closures. A multivariable model was used to assess associations between rates of participation in extracurricular activities and both school closures and students' infectious periods.@*Results@#Among 162 eligible cases, 99 students participated. Students reported social contact in both curricular and extra-curricular activities. Group size and total number of close contacts varied. While participation in activities decreased during the students' infectious periods and during school closures, social contact was common during periods when isolation was advised and during school closures. @*Discussion@#This study demonstrates the potential central role of young people in pandemic disease transmission given the level of non-adherence to prevention and control measures. These finding have public health implications for both informing modelling estimates of future pandemics and targeting prevention and control strategies to young people.