Efficient self-organization of informal public transport networks.

The Global South, encompassing more than 80% of the world population, heavily relies on informal paratransit services with ad-hoc routes. Yet, it remains unclear how efficiently such informal public transport services organize and operate. Here, we analyze and compare the structural efficiency of more than 7000 formal and informal bus service routes in 36 cities across 22 countries globally. Intriguingly, informal transport self-organizes in ways at or above efficiency levels of centralized services. They exhibit fewer detours, more uniform paths, and comparable interconnectivities, all while remaining profitable without the major subsidies common in the Global North. These insights challenge the global perception of informal transport as an inferior alternative to centrally organized services. More generally, analyzing large-scale microscopic transport data and condensing them into informative macroscopic observables may qualitatively improve system understanding and reveal specific options to create more accessible, efficient, and sustainable public transport solutions.

Complexified synchrony.

The Kuramoto model and its generalizations have been broadly employed to characterize and mechanistically understand various collective dynamical phenomena, especially the emergence of synchrony among coupled oscillators. Despite almost five decades of research, many questions remain open, in particular, for finite-size systems. Here, we generalize recent work [Thümler et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 130, 187201 (2023)] on the finite-size Kuramoto model with its state variables analytically continued to the complex domain and also complexify its system parameters. Intriguingly, systems of two units with purely imaginary coupling do not actively synchronize even for arbitrarily large magnitudes of the coupling strengths, |K|→∞, but exhibit conservative dynamics with asynchronous rotations or librations for all |K|. For generic complex coupling, both traditional phase-locked states and asynchronous states generalize to complex locked states, fixed points off the real subspace that exist even for arbitrarily weak coupling. We analyze a new collective mode of rotations exhibiting finite, yet arbitrarily large rotation numbers. Numerical simulations for large networks indicate a novel form of discontinuous phase transition. We close by pointing to a range of exciting questions for future research.

Exponential adoption of battery electric cars.

The adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) may significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions caused by road transport. However, there is wide disagreement as to how soon battery electric vehicles will play a major role in overall transportation. Focusing on battery electric passenger cars, we analyze BEV adoption across 17 individual countries, Europe, and the World, and consistently find exponential growth trends. Modeling-based estimates of future adoption given past trends suggest system-wide adoption substantially faster than typical economic analyses have proposed so far. For instance, we estimate the majority of passenger cars in Europe to be electric by about 2031. Within regions, the predicted times of mass adoption are largely insensitive to model details. Despite significant differences in current electric fleet sizes across regions, their growth rates consistently indicate fast doubling times of approximately 15 months, hinting at radical economic and infrastructural consequences in the near future.

Designing spiking neural networks for robust and reconfigurable computation.

Networks of spiking neurons constitute analog systems capable of effective and resilient computing. Recent work has shown that networks of symmetrically connected inhibitory neurons may implement basic computations such that they are resilient to system disruption. For instance, if the functionality of one neuron is lost (e.g., the neuron, along with its connections, is removed), the system may be robustly reconfigured by adapting only one global system parameter. How to effectively adapt network parameters to robustly perform a given computation is still unclear. Here, we present an analytical approach to derive such parameters. Specifically, we analyze k-winners-takes-all (k-WTA) computations, basic computational tasks of identifying the k largest signals from a total of N input signals from which one can construct any computation. We identify and characterize different dynamical regimes and provide analytical expressions for the transitions between different numbers k of winners as a function of both input and network parameters. Our results thereby provide analytical insights about the dynamics underlying k-winner-takes-all functionality as well as an effective way of designing spiking neural network computing systems implementing disruption-resilient dynamics.

Revealing system dimension from single-variable time series.

Complex and networked dynamical systems characterize the time evolution of most of the natural and human-made world. The dimension of their state space, i.e., the number of (active) variables in such systems, arguably constitutes their most fundamental property yet is hard to access in general. Recent work [Haehne et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 158301 (2019)] introduced a method of inferring the state space dimension of a multi-dimensional networked system from repeatedly measuring time series of only some fraction of observed variables, while all other variables are hidden. Here, we show how time series observations of one single variable are mathematically sufficient for dimension inference. We reveal how successful inference in practice depends on numerical constraints of data evaluation and on experimental choices, in particular the sampling intervals and the total duration of observations. We illustrate robust inference for systems of up to N=10 to N=100 variables by evaluating time series observations of a single variable. We discuss how the faithfulness of the inference depends on the quality and quantity of collected data and formulate some general rules of thumb on how to approach the measurement of a given system.

Synchrony for Weak Coupling in the Complexified Kuramoto Model.

We present the finite-size Kuramoto model analytically continued from real to complex variables and analyze its collective dynamics. For strong coupling, synchrony appears through locked states that constitute attractors, as for the real-variable system. However, synchrony persists in the form of complex locked states for coupling strengths K below the transition K^{(pl)} to classical phase locking. Stable complex locked states indicate a locked subpopulation of zero mean frequency in the real-variable model and their imaginary parts help identifying which units comprise that subpopulation. We uncover a second transition at K^{'}

Understanding Braess' Paradox in power grids.

The ongoing energy transition requires power grid extensions to connect renewable generators to consumers and to transfer power among distant areas. The process of grid extension requires a large investment of resources and is supposed to make grid operation more robust. Yet, counter-intuitively, increasing the capacity of existing lines or adding new lines may also reduce the overall system performance and even promote blackouts due to Braess' paradox. Braess' paradox was theoretically modeled but not yet proven in realistically scaled power grids. Here, we present an experimental setup demonstrating Braess' paradox in an AC power grid and show how it constrains ongoing large-scale grid extension projects. We present a topological theory that reveals the key mechanism and predicts Braessian grid extensions from the network structure. These results offer a theoretical method to understand and practical guidelines in support of preventing unsuitable infrastructures and the systemic planning of grid extensions.

Data-driven load profiles and the dynamics of residential electricity consumption.

The dynamics of power consumption constitutes an essential building block for planning and operating sustainable energy systems. Whereas variations in the dynamics of renewable energy generation are reasonably well studied, a deeper understanding of the variations in consumption dynamics is still missing. Here, we analyse highly resolved residential electricity consumption data of Austrian, German and UK households and propose a generally applicable data-driven load model. Specifically, we disentangle the average demand profiles from the demand fluctuations based purely on time series data. We introduce a stochastic model to quantitatively capture the highly intermittent demand fluctuations. Thereby, we offer a better understanding of demand dynamics, in particular its fluctuations, and provide general tools for disentangling mean demand and fluctuations for any given system, going beyond the standard load profile (SLP). Our insights on the demand dynamics may support planning and operating future-compliant (micro) grids in maintaining supply-demand balance.

Collective dynamics of capacity-constrained ride-pooling fleets.

Ride-pooling (or ride-sharing) services combine trips of multiple customers along similar routes into a single vehicle. The collective dynamics of the fleet of ride-pooling vehicles fundamentally underlies the efficiency of these services. In simplified models, the common features of these dynamics give rise to scaling laws of the efficiency that are valid across a wide range of street networks and demand settings. However, it is unclear how constraints of the vehicle fleet impact such scaling laws. Here, we map the collective dynamics of capacity-constrained ride-pooling fleets to services with unlimited passenger capacity and identify an effective fleet size of available vehicles as the relevant scaling parameter characterizing the dynamics. Exploiting this mapping, we generalize the scaling laws of ride-pooling efficiency to capacity-constrained fleets. We approximate the scaling function with a queueing theoretical analysis of the dynamics in a minimal model system, thereby enabling mean-field predictions of required fleet sizes in more complex settings. These results may help to transfer insights from existing ride-pooling services to new settings or service locations.

Spontaneous symmetry breaking in ride-sharing adoption dynamics.

Symmetry breaking ubiquitously occurs across complex systems, from phase transition in statistical physics to self-organized lane formation in pedestrian dynamics. Here, we uncover spontaneous symmetry breaking in a simple model of ride-sharing adoption. We analyze how collective interactions among ride-sharing users to avoid detours in shared rides give rise to spontaneous symmetry breaking and pattern formation in the adoption dynamics. These dynamics result in bistability of high homogeneous and partial heterogeneous adoption states, potentially limiting the population-wide adoption of ride sharing. Our results provide a framework to understand real-world adoption patterns of ride sharing in complex urban settings and support the (re)design of ride-sharing services and incentives for sustainable shared mobility.

Absence of pure voltage instabilities in the third-order model of power grid dynamics.

Secure operation of electric power grids fundamentally relies on their dynamical stability properties. For the third-order model, a paradigmatic model that captures voltage dynamics, three routes to instability are established in the literature: a pure rotor angle instability, a pure voltage instability, and one instability induced by the interplay of both. Here, we demonstrate that one of these routes, the pure voltage instability, requires infinite voltage amplitudes and is, thus, nonphysical. We show that voltage collapse dynamics nevertheless exist in the absence of any voltage instabilities.

Demand-driven design of bicycle infrastructure networks for improved urban bikeability.

Cycling is crucial for sustainable urban transportation. Promoting cycling critically relies on sufficiently developed infrastructure; however, designing efficient bike path networks constitutes a complex problem that requires balancing multiple constraints. Here we propose a framework for generating efficient bike path networks, explicitly taking into account cyclists' demand distribution and route choices based on safety preferences. By reversing the network formation, we iteratively remove bike paths from an initially complete bike path network and continually update cyclists' route choices to create a sequence of networks adapted to the cycling demand. We illustrate the applicability of this demand-driven approach for two cities. A comparison of the resulting bike path networks with those created for homogenized demand enables us to quantify the importance of the demand distribution for network planning. The proposed framework may thus enable quantitative evaluation of the structure of current and planned cycling networks, and support the demand-driven design of efficient infrastructures.

Obscuring digital route-choice information prevents delay-induced congestion.

Although routing applications increasingly affect individual mobility choices, their impact on collective traffic dynamics remains largely unknown. Smart communication technologies provide accurate traffic data for choosing one route over other alternatives; yet, inherent delays undermine the potential usefulness of such information. Here, we introduce and analyze a simple model of collective traffic dynamics, which results from route choice relying on outdated traffic information. We find for sufficiently small information delays that traffic flows are stable against perturbations. However, delays beyond a bifurcation point induce self-organized flow oscillations of increasing amplitude-congestion arises. Providing delayed information averaged over sufficiently long periods of time or, more intriguingly, reducing the number of vehicles adhering to the route recommendations may prevent such delay-induced congestion. We reveal the fundamental mechanisms underlying these phenomena in a minimal two-road model and demonstrate their generality in microscopic, agent-based simulations of a road network system. Our findings provide a way to conceptually understand system-wide traffic dynamics caused by broadly used non-instantaneous routing information and suggest how resulting unintended collective traffic states could be avoided.

Phase separation induces congestion waves in electric vehicle charging.

Electric vehicles may dominate motorized transport in the next decade, yet the impact of the collective dynamics of electric mobility on long-range traffic flow is still largely unknown. We demonstrate a type of congestion that arises if charging infrastructure is limited or electric vehicle density is high. This congestion emerges solely through indirect interactions at charging infrastructure by queue-avoidance behavior that-counterintuitively-induces clustering of occupied charging stations and phase separation of the flow into free and congested stations. The resulting congestion waves always propagate forward in the direction of travel, in contrast to typically backward-propagating congestion waves known from traditional traffic jams. These results may guide the planning and design of charging infrastructure and decision support applications in the near future.

Stochastic facilitation in heteroclinic communication channels.

Biological neural systems encode and transmit information as patterns of activity tracing complex trajectories in high-dimensional state spaces, inspiring alternative paradigms of information processing. Heteroclinic networks, naturally emerging in artificial neural systems, are networks of saddles in state space that provide a transparent approach to generate complex trajectories via controlled switches among interconnected saddles. External signals induce specific switching sequences, thus dynamically encoding inputs as trajectories. Recent works have focused either on computational aspects of heteroclinic networks, i.e., Heteroclinic Computing, or their stochastic properties under noise. Yet, how well such systems may transmit information remains an open question. Here, we investigate the information transmission properties of heteroclinic networks, studying them as communication channels. Choosing a tractable but representative system exhibiting a heteroclinic network, we investigate the mutual information rate (MIR) between input signals and the resulting sequences of states as the level of noise varies. Intriguingly, MIR does not decrease monotonically with increasing noise. Intermediate noise levels indeed maximize the information transmission capacity by promoting an increased yet controlled exploration of the underlying network of states. Complementing standard stochastic resonance, these results highlight the constructive effect of stochastic facilitation (i.e., noise-enhanced information transfer) on heteroclinic communication channels and possibly on more general dynamical systems exhibiting complex trajectories in state space.

Incentive-driven transition to high ride-sharing adoption.

Ride-sharing-the combination of multiple trips into one-may substantially contribute towards sustainable urban mobility. It is most efficient at high demand locations with many similar trip requests. However, here we reveal that people's willingness to share rides does not follow this trend. Modeling the fundamental incentives underlying individual ride-sharing decisions, we find two opposing adoption regimes, one with constant and another one with decreasing adoption as demand increases. In the high demand limit, the transition between these regimes becomes discontinuous, switching abruptly from low to high ride-sharing adoption. Analyzing over 360 million ride requests in New York City and Chicago illustrates that both regimes coexist across the cities, consistent with our model predictions. These results suggest that even a moderate increase in the financial incentives may have a disproportionately large effect on the ride-sharing adoption of individual user groups.

Discontinuous epidemic transition due to limited testing.

High impact epidemics constitute one of the largest threats humanity is facing in the 21st century. In the absence of pharmaceutical interventions, physical distancing together with testing, contact tracing and quarantining are crucial in slowing down epidemic dynamics. Yet, here we show that if testing capacities are limited, containment may fail dramatically because such combined countermeasures drastically change the rules of the epidemic transition: Instead of continuous, the response to countermeasures becomes discontinuous. Rather than following the conventional exponential growth, the outbreak that is initially strongly suppressed eventually accelerates and scales faster than exponential during an explosive growth period. As a consequence, containment measures either suffice to stop the outbreak at low total case numbers or fail catastrophically if marginally too weak, thus implying large uncertainties in reliably estimating overall epidemic dynamics, both during initial phases and during second wave scenarios.

COVID-19 in South Africa: outbreak despite interventions.

The future dynamics of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in African countries is largely unclear. Simultaneously, required strengths of intervention measures are strongly debated because containing COVID-19 in favor of the weak health care system largely conflicts with socio-economic hardships. Here we analyze the impact of interventions on outbreak dynamics for South Africa, exhibiting the largest case numbers across sub-saharan Africa, before and after their national lockdown. Past data indicate strongly reduced but still supracritical growth after lockdown. Moreover, large-scale agent-based simulations given different future scenarios for the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality with 1.14 million inhabitants, based on detailed activity and mobility survey data of about 10% of the population, similarly suggest that current containment may be insufficient to not overload local intensive care capacity. Yet, enduring, slightly stronger or more specific interventions, combined with sufficient compliance, may constitute a viable option for interventions for South Africa.

Decoding complex state space trajectories for neural computing.

In biological neural circuits as well as in bio-inspired information processing systems, trajectories in high-dimensional state-space encode the solutions to computational tasks performed by complex dynamical systems. Due to the high state-space dimensionality and the number of possible encoding trajectories rapidly growing with input signal dimension, decoding these trajectories constitutes a major challenge on its own, in particular, as exponentially growing (space or time) requirements for decoding would render the original computational paradigm inefficient. Here, we suggest an approach to overcome this problem. We propose an efficient decoding scheme for trajectories emerging in spiking neural circuits that exhibit linear scaling with input signal dimensionality. We focus on the dynamics near a sequence of unstable saddle states that naturally emerge in a range of physical systems and provide a novel paradigm for analog computing, for instance, in the form of heteroclinic computing. Identifying simple measures of coordinated activity (synchrony) that are commonly applicable to all trajectories representing the same percept, we design robust readouts whose sizes and time requirements increase only linearly with the system size. These results move the conceptual boundary so far hindering the implementation of heteroclinic computing in hardware and may also catalyze efficient decoding strategies in spiking neural networks in general.

Open database analysis of scaling and spatio-temporal properties of power grid frequencies.

The electrical energy system has attracted much attention from an increasingly diverse research community. Many theoretical predictions have been made, from scaling laws of fluctuations to propagation velocities of disturbances. However, to validate any theory, empirical data from large-scale power systems are necessary but are rarely shared openly. Here, we analyse an open database of measurements of electric power grid frequencies across 17 locations in 12 synchronous areas on three continents. The power grid frequency is of particular interest, as it indicates the balance of supply and demand and carries information on deterministic, stochastic, and control influences. We perform a broad analysis of the recorded data, compare different synchronous areas and validate a previously conjectured scaling law. Furthermore, we show how fluctuations change from local independent oscillations to a homogeneous bulk behaviour. Overall, the presented open database and analyses constitute a step towards more shared, collaborative energy research.