Natural disasters: a comprehensive study using EMDAT database 1995-2022.

INTRODUCTION: The frequency, intensity, and geographical reach of natural disasters, fueled in part by factors such as climate change, population growth, and urbanization, have undeniably been escalating concerns around the world. DESIGN AND METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of natural disasters recorded in the Emergency Events Database from 1995 to 2022. RESULTS: Between 1995 and 2022, 11,360 natural disasters occurred, with a mean of 398 per year. Asia experienced the most disasters (4390) and the highest number of casualties (918,198). Hydrological disasters were the most common subgroup (4969), while geophysical disasters led in terms of deaths (770,644). Biological disasters caused the most injuries (2544), particularly in Africa. CONCLUSION: Recognizing the historical impacts of the various subtypes of natural disasters may help different regions better risk analyze and mitigate the unique risks associated with such events.

The anatomy of stadium disasters: causes, consequences and safeguarding the future from a medical perspective.

INTRODUCTION: Stadiums are an important part of the entertainment and sporting cultures of communities around the world, but the combination of outdated infrastructure with poor safety planning, large numbers of people gathering within a confined space, and the high frequency of such events have led to a number of significant disasters in the past. This is a descriptive analysis of stadium disasters occurring between 1901 and 2021 which may provide useful insight for event safety personnel and disaster medicine specialists to better prevent and mitigate the effects of potential future stadium disasters. DESIGN AND METHODS: Data were collected using a retrospective database search of the Emergency Events Database (EM-DATS) for all stadium-related accidental disasters occurring between January 1, 1901 - and July 30th, 2022. A disaster is defined by Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) in its glossary as 'technological accidents of an industrial nature, or involving industrial buildings'. All categories and definitions are predetermined by the EM-DATS as per their glossary. RESULTS: The 24th May 1964 Estadio Nacional disaster in Lima, Peru, was the worst (in terms of deaths) to date with 350 deaths. This is followed by the 1982 Luzhniki Stadium disaster in Moscow, Russia (340 deaths), the 2001 Accra Sport Stadium disaster in Ghana (123 deaths), and the 1985 Hillsborough Stadium disaster in Sheffield, England (96 deaths). Fourteen of the 40 stadium disasters occurred in Africa, 11 in Europe, 10 in the Americas, and five in Asia. CONCLUSION: A total of 40 stadium disasters were included, leading to 2025 deaths and 6640 injuries. This equated to an average of 50.6 deaths and 166.0 injuries per disaster. Given the potential risk of mass casualty events, stadiums should incorporate disaster medicine education, training, and expertise in their emergency medical plans.

Clashes and crowds: protests, riots, and other mass gathering events in North America 2021-2022.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to provide an overview of the scope and challenges of historic events and help better prepare emergency healthcare services for future similar mass gathering events. STUDY DESIGN: This was a retrospective descriptive analysis of protest and conflict events in North America from 2021 to 2022. INTRODUCTION: Recent protests, riots, and other conflict events in North America have highlighted the increasing challenges hospital-based and prehospital healthcare providers face. This study provides a retrospective descriptive analysis of protest and conflict events in North America from 2021 to 2022, which may aid emergency healthcare services in understanding the scope and challenges of historic events and help better prepare for future similar mass gathering events. METHODS: Data collection was performed using a retrospective database search through the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) database. The ACLED database was searched using the internal database search functions for recorded events that occurred in North America from January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2022. Date, event type, event subtype, the country of incident, and fatality numbers were extracted. The results were exported into an Excel spreadsheet and analyzed independently by L.C., H.S., and R.H. RESULTS: There were a total of 52,529 recorded events of political conflict in North America, with 30,269 events in 2021 and 29,260 in 2022. Political conflict events included protests (40,934, 68.8%), violence against civilians (11,532, 19.4%), strategic developments (2,819, 4.7%), battles (2,293, 3.9%), riots (1,909, 3.2%), and remote violence (42, 0.1%). Violence against civilians caused the highest fatalities (13,466, 82.6%), followed by battles (2,662, 16.3%), riots (111, 0.7%), strategic developments, remote violence, and protests (57, 6, and 3 respectively). CONCLUSION: Mexico and the United States accounted for most of the political conflicts in North America across 2021 and 2022. In Mexico, protests and violence against civilians were the most common types of conflict, with the latter accounting for the comparatively high fatality compared with the other countries. Battles in Mexico between cartels were the most deadly political conflicts recorded in North America.

Health Assessment Questionnaire at One Year Predicts All-Cause Mortality in Patients With Early Rheumatoid Arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Higher self-reported disability (high Health Assessment Questionnaire [HAQ] score) has been associated with hospitalizations and mortality in established rheumatoid arthritis (RA), but associations in early RA are unknown. METHODS: Patients with early RA (symptom duration <1 year) enrolled in the Canadian Early Arthritis Cohort who initiated disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs and had completed HAQ data at baseline and 1 year were included in the study. Discrete-time proportional hazards models were used to estimate crude and multi-adjusted associations of baseline HAQ and HAQ at 1 year with all-cause mortality in each year of follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 1,724 patients with early RA were included. The mean age was 55 years, and 72% were women. Over 10 years, 62 deaths (3.6%) were recorded. Deceased patients had higher HAQ scores at baseline (mean ± SD 1.2 ± 0.7) and at 1 year (0.9 ± 0.7) than living patients (1.0 ± 0.7 and 0.5 ± 0.6, respectively; P < 0.001). Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28) was higher in deceased versus living patients at baseline (mean ± SD 5.4 ± 1.3 versus 4.9 ± 1.4) and at 1 year (mean ± SD 3.6 ± 1.4 versus 2.8 ± 1.4) (P < 0.001). Older age, male sex, lower education level, smoking, more comorbidities, higher baseline DAS28, and glucocorticoid use were associated with mortality. Contrary to HAQ score at baseline, the association between all-cause mortality and HAQ score at 1 year remained significant even after adjustment for confounders. For baseline HAQ score, the unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 1.46 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.02-2.09), and the adjusted HR was 1.25 (95% CI 0.81-1.94). For HAQ score at 1 year, the unadjusted HR was 2.58 (95% CI 1.78-3.72), and the adjusted HR was 1.75 (95% CI 1.10-2.77). CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that higher HAQ score and DAS28 at 1 year are significantly associated with all-cause mortality in a large early RA cohort.

Palindromic Rheumatism Frequently Precedes Early Rheumatoid Arthritis: Results From an Incident Cohort.

BACKGROUND: This multicenter incident cohort aimed to characterize how often early rheumatoid arthritis (ERA) patients self-report episodic joint inflammation (palindromic rheumatism) preceding ERA diagnosis and which characteristics differentiate these patients from those without prior episodic symptoms. METHODS: Data were from patients with early confirmed or suspected RA (more than 6 weeks and less than 12 months) enrolled in the Canadian Early ArThritis CoHort (CATCH) between April 2017 to March 2018 who completed study case report forms assessing joint pain and swelling prior to ERA diagnosis. Chi-square and t tests were used to compare characteristics of patients with and without self-reported episodic joint inflammation prior to ERA diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify sociodemographic and clinical measures associated with past episodic joint inflammation around the time of ERA diagnosis. RESULTS: A total of 154 ERA patients were included; 66% were female, and mean (SD) age and RA symptom duration were 54 (15) years and 141 (118) days. Sixty-five (42%) ERA patients reported a history of episodic joint pain and swelling, half of whom reported that these symptoms preceded ERA diagnosis by over 6 months. ERA patients with past episodic joint inflammation were more often female, had higher income, were seropositive, had more comorbidities, fewer swollen joints, and lower Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI) around the time of ERA diagnosis (P < 0.05). These associations remained significant in multivariable regression adjusting for other sociodemographic and RA clinical measures. CONCLUSION: Almost half of ERA patients experienced episodic joint inflammation prior to ERA diagnosis. These patients were more often female, had higher income, and presented with milder disease activity at ERA diagnosis.

Prevalence and Characteristics of Metabolic Syndrome Differ in Men and Women with Early Rheumatoid Arthritis.

Objective: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) prevalence in early rheumatoid arthritis (ERA) is conflicting. The impact of sex, including menopause, has not been described. We estimated the prevalence and factors associated with MetS in men and women with ERA. Methods: A cross-sectional study of the Canadian Early Arthritis Cohort (CATCH) was performed. Participants with baseline data to estimate key MetS components were included. Sex-stratified logistic regression identified baseline variables associated with MetS. Results: The sample included 1543 participants; 71% were female and the mean age was 54 (SD 15) years. MetS prevalence was higher in men 188 (42%) than women 288 (26%, P < 0.0001) and increased with age. Frequent MetS components in men were hypertension (62%), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT, 40%), obesity (36%), and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (36%). Postmenopausal women had greater frequency of hypertension (65%), IGT (32%), and high triglycerides (21%) compared with premenopausal women (P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, MetS was negatively associated with seropositivity and pulmonary disease in men. Increasing age was associated with MetS in women. In postmenopausal women, corticosteroid use was associated with MetS. Psychiatric comorbidity was associated with MetS in premenopausal women. MetS status was not explained by disease activity or core RA measures. Conclusion: The characteristics and associations of MetS differed in men and women with ERA. Sex differences, including postmenopausal status, should be considered in comorbidity screening. With this knowledge, the interplay of MetS, sex, and RA therapeutic response on cardiovascular outcomes should be investigated.

Prevalence of latent tuberculous infection among adults in the general population of Ca Mau, Viet Nam.

SETTING: The study was conducted in a randomly selected sample of persons aged 15 years living in Ca Mau Province, southern Viet Nam. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of latent tuberculous infection (LTBI) in the general adult population of this province of Viet Nam. The secondary objective was to examine age and sex differences in prevalence. DESIGN: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in a cluster-random sample of the population. Clusters were subcommunes. The presence of LTBI was assessed using the QuantiFERON®-TB Gold In-Tube test system. RESULTS: QuantiFERON tests were performed among 1319 persons aged 15 years (77.7% of those selected). The overall prevalence of positive tests was 36.8% (95%CI 33.4-40.3). The prevalence of a positive test was lower in females than in males (31.0% vs. 44.7%, OR 0.57, 95%CI 0.45-0.72, P < 0.0001). The prevalence of positive tests increased with increasing age quintile (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: More than one third of the general adult population in a province in southern Viet Nam have evidence of LTBI. Although LTBI prevalence is higher in males, the sex difference is not as great as that for TB notification rates.

Determining the Minimally Important Difference in the Clinical Disease Activity Index for Improvement and Worsening in Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients.

OBJECTIVE: Simplified measures to quantify rheumatoid arthritis (RA) disease activity are increasingly used. The minimum clinically important differences (MCID) for some measures, such as the Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI), have not been well-defined in real-world clinic settings, especially for early RA patients with low/moderate disease activity. METHODS: Data from Canadian Early Arthritis Cohort patients were used to examine absolute change in CDAI in the first year after enrollment, stratified by disease activity. MCID cut points were derived to optimize the sum of sensitivity and specificity versus the gold standard of patient self-reported improvement or worsening. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values, and negative predictive values were calculated against patient self-reported improvement (gold standard) and for change in pain, Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ), and Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28) improvement. Discrimination was examined using the area under receiver operator curves. Similar methods were used to evaluate MCIDs for worsening for patients who achieved low disease activity. RESULTS: A total of 578 patients (mean ± SD age 54.1 ± 15.3 years, 75% women, median [interquartile range] disease duration 5.3 [3.3, 8.0] months) contributed 1,169 visit pairs to the improvement analysis. The MCID cut points for improvement were 12 (patients starting in high disease activity: CDAI >22), 6 (moderate: CDAI 10-22), and 1 (low disease activity: CDAI <10). Performance characteristics were acceptable using these cut points for pain, HAQ, and DAS28. The MCID for CDAI worsening among patients who achieved low disease activity was 2 units. CONCLUSION: These minimum important absolute differences in CDAI can be used to evaluate improvement and worsening and increase the utility of CDAI in clinical practice.

The genetics of osteoporosis.

Osteoporosis is highly influenced by genetic factors. Bone mineral density (BMD) has also been shown to be highly heritable, as are other risk factors for osteoporotic fracture such as bone quality, femoral neck geometry and bone turnover. Susceptibility to osteoporosis is mediated, in all likelihood, by multiple genes each having small effect and a number of different approaches are being employed to identify the genes involved. Study methods include linkage studies in both humans and experimental animals as well as candidate gene and gene expression studies. Linkage studies have identified multiple quantitative trait loci (QTL) for regulation of BMD and, along with twin studies, have indicated that the effects of these loci on BMD are site-dependent and sex-specific. On the whole, the genes responsible for BMD regulation at these QTL have not been identified. Most studies have used the candidate gene approach, based on what is known of bone metabolism. The vitamin D receptor gene (VDR), the collagen type I alpha I gene (COLIA1) and estrogen receptor gene (ER) alpha have been widely investigated and found to play a role in regulating BMD. A recent meta-analysis suggests, however, that VDR plays no significant role, and the effects of the other 2 genes are modest--probably accounting for less than 3% of the genetic contribution to BMD. Cost-effective large scale genetic testing is becoming available and lends itself to combining large multi-national populations for candidate gene analysis, meta-analyses, DNA pooling studies and gene expression studies.