Estimating averted illnesses from influenza vaccination for children and pregnant women - El Salvador, Panama, and Peru, 2011-2018.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the burden of disease averted by vaccination can assist policymakers to implement, adjust, and communicate the value of vaccination programs. Demonstrating the use of a newly available modeling tool, we estimated the burden of influenza illnesses averted by seasonal influenza vaccination in El Salvador, Panama, and Peru during 2011-2017 among two influenza vaccine target populations: children aged 6-23 months and pregnant women. METHODS: We derived model inputs, including incidence, vaccine coverage, vaccine effectiveness, and multipliers from publicly available country-level influenza surveillance data and cohort studies. We also estimated changes in illnesses averted when countries' vaccine coverage was achieved using four different vaccine deployment strategies. RESULTS: Among children aged 6-23 months, influenza vaccination averted an estimated cumulative 2,161 hospitalizations, 81,907 medically-attended illnesses, and 126,987 overall illnesses during the study period, with a prevented fraction ranging from 0.3 % to 12.5 %. Among pregnant women, influenza vaccination averted an estimated cumulative 173 hospitalizations, 6,122 medically attended illnesses, and 16,412 overall illnesses, with a prevented fraction ranging from 0.2 % to 10.9 %. Compared to an influenza vaccine campaign with equal vaccine distribution during March-June, scenarios in which total cumulative coverage was achieved in March and April consistently resulted in the greatest increase in averted illness (23 %-3,129 % increase among young children and 22 %-3,260 % increase among pregnant women). DISCUSSION: Influenza vaccination campaigns in El Salvador, Panama, and Peru conducted between 2011 and 2018 prevented hundreds to thousands of influenza-associated hospitalizations and illnesses in young children and pregnant women. Existing vaccination programs could prevent additional illnesses, using the same number of vaccines, by achieving the highest possible coverage within the first two months of an influenza vaccine campaign.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) from Wild Birds, Poultry, and Mammals, Peru.

We identified highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus clade 2.3.4.4b in wild birds, poultry, and a lion in Peru during November 2022-February 2023 and markers associated with transmission adaptation and antiviral drug resistance. Continuous genomic surveillance is needed to inform public health measures and avoid mass animal deaths.

Healthcare personnel in 2016-2019 prospective cohort infrequently got vaccinated, worked while ill, and frequently used antibiotics rather than antivirals against viral influenza illnesses.

Background: Uncertainty about risk of illness and the value of influenza vaccines negatively affects vaccine uptake among persons targeted for influenza vaccination. Methods: During 2016-2019, we followed a cohort of healthcare personnel (HCP) targeted for free-of-charge influenza vaccination in five Lima hospitals to quantify risk of influenza, workplace presenteeism (coming to work despite illness), and absenteeism (taking time off from work because of illness). The HCP who developed acute respiratory illnesses (ARI) (≥1 of acute cough, runny nose, body aches, or feverishness) were tested for influenza using reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (rt-PCR). Findings: The cohort (2968 HCP) contributed 950,888 person-days. Only 36 (6%) of 605 HCP who participated every year were vaccinated. The HCP had 5750 ARI and 147 rt-PCR-confirmed influenza illnesses. The weighted incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza was 10.0/100 person-years; 37% used antibiotics, and 0.7% used antivirals to treat these illnesses. The HCP with laboratory-confirmed influenza were present at work while ill for a cumulative 1187 hours. Interpretation: HCP were frequently ill and often worked rather than stayed at home while ill. Our findings suggest the need for continuing medical education about the risk of influenza and benefits of vaccination and stay-at-home-while-ill policies.

Knowledge, attitudes, and practices associated with frequent influenza vaccination among healthcare personnel in Peru, 2016─2018.

Introduction: Despite a government-subsidized vaccination program, healthcare personnel (HCP) influenza vaccination uptake remains low in Peru. Using three years of cross-sectional surveys and an additional five years of prior vaccination history of HCP in Peru, we explored HCP knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) of influenza illness and its impact on vaccination frequency. Methods: In 2016, the Estudio Vacuna de Influenza Peru (VIP) cohort was initiated in Lima, Peru, which collected information about HCP KAP and influenza vaccination history from 2011─2018. HCP were classified by their 8-year influenza vaccination history as never (0 years), infrequently (1─4 years), or frequently (5─8 years) vaccinated. Logistic regression models were used to describe KAP associated with frequent compared to infrequent influenza vaccination, adjusted for each HCP's healthcare workplace, age, sex, preexisting medical conditions, occupation, and length of time providing direct patient care. Results: From 2016─2018, 5131 HCP were recruited and 3120 fully enrolled in VIP; 2782 consistently reported influenza vaccination status and became our analytic sample. From 2011─2018, 14.3% of HCP never, 61.4% infrequently, and 24.4% frequently received influenza vaccines. Compared to HCP who were infrequently vaccinated, frequently vaccinated HCP were more likely to believe they were susceptible to influenza (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]:1.49, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.22─1.82), perceived vaccination to be effective (aOR:1.92, 95%CI:1.59─2.32), were knowledgeable about influenza and vaccination (aOR:1.37, 95%CI:1.06─1.77), and believed vaccination had emotional benefits like reduced regret or anger if they became ill with influenza (aOR:1.96, 95%CI:1.60─2.42). HCP who reported vaccination barriers like not having time or a convenient place to receive vaccines had reduced odds of frequent vaccination (aOR:0.74, 95%CI:0.61─0.89) compared to those without reported barriers. Conclusion: Few HCP frequently received influenza vaccines during an eight-year period. To increase HCP influenza vaccination in middle-income settings like Peru, campaigns could strengthen influenza risk perception, vaccine knowledge, and accessibility.

Effectiveness of Maternal Influenza Vaccination in Peru PRIME Cohort.

Background: Few studies have examined influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) among women during pregnancy in middle-income countries. We used data from a prospective cohort of women who were pregnant in Peru to estimate effectiveness of the 2018 Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine. Methods: Women at <28 weeks gestation were enrolled from 4 tertiary level hospitals in Lima, Peru at the start of the 2018 influenza season and followed until the end of their pregnancies. Participants had mid-turbinate nasal swabs collected and tested for influenza by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) with onset of ≥1 of myalgia, cough, runny nose or nasal congestion, sore throat, or difficulty breathing. Time-varying Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate the risk of RT-PCR-confirmed influenza infection after adjusting for inverse probability treatment weight. Results: We followed 1896 women for a median of 127 days (interquartile range [IQR], 86-174). Participants had a median age of 29 years (IQR, 24-34). Among the 1896 women, 49% were vaccinated with the 2018 influenza vaccine and 1039 (55%) developed influenza-like illness, 76 (7%) of whom had RT-PCR-confirmed influenza. Incidence rates of RT-PCR-confirmed influenza were 36.6 and 15.3 per 100 000 person-days among women who were unvaccinated and vaccinated, respectively. Adjusted influenza VE was 22% (95% confidence interval, -64.1% to 62.9%). Conclusions: Participants vaccinated against influenza had more than 50% lower incidence of RT-PCR-confirmed influenza illness. Although the VE estimated through propensity weight-adjusted time-varying Cox regression did not reach statistical significance, our findings provide additional evidence about the value of maternal influenza vaccination in middle-income countries.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness within prospective cohorts of healthcare personnel in Israel and Peru 2016-2019.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza illness among healthcare personnel (HCP). METHODS: HCP with direct patient contact working full-time in hospitals were followed during three influenza seasons in Israel (2016-2017 to 2018-2019) and Peru (2016 to 2018). Trivalent influenza vaccines were available at all sites, except during 2018-2019 when Israel used quadrivalent vaccines; vaccination was documented by electronic medical records, vaccine registries, and/or self-report (for vaccinations outside the hospital). Twice-weekly active surveillance identified acute respiratory symptoms or febrile illness (ARFI); self-collected respiratory specimens were tested by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay. IVE was 100 × 1-hazard ratio (adjusted for sex, age, occupation, and hospital). RESULTS: Among 5,489 HCP who contributed 10,041 person-seasons, influenza vaccination coverage was 47% in Israel and 32% in Peru. Of 3,056 ARFIs in Israel and 3,538 in Peru, A or B influenza virus infections were identified in 205 (7%) in Israel and 87 (2.5%) in Peru. IVE against all viruses across seasons was 1% (95% confidence interval [CI] = -30%, 25%) in Israel and 12% (95% CI = -61%, 52%) in Peru. CONCLUSION: Estimates of IVE were null using person-time models during six study seasons in Israel and Peru.

What do pregnant women think about influenza disease and vaccination practices in selected countries.

Introduction: We evaluated knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) related to influenza and influenza vaccination among pregnant women in three selected countries.Methods: During 2017, pregnant women seeking antenatal care at hospitals at participating sites were enrolled. We described characteristics and responses to KAP questions. We also evaluated predictors associated with influenza vaccination during pregnancy at sites with substantial influenza vaccine uptake by multivariable logistic regression.Results: Overall, 4,648 pregnant women completed the survey. There were substantial differences among the three survey populations; only 8% of the women in Nagpur had heard of influenza, compared to 90% in Lima and 96% in Bangkok (p-value<0.01). Despite significant differences in sociodemographic characteristics in the three populations, most participants across sites who were aware of influenza prior to study enrollment believe they and their infants are at risk of influenza and related complications and believe influenza vaccination is safe and effective. Half of women in Lima had verified receipt of influenza vaccine compared to <5% in Bangkok and Nagpur (p < .05). For further analysis conducted among women in Lima only, household income above the poverty line (aOR: 1.38; 95%CI: 1.01, 1.88), having 8+ antenatal visits, compared to 0-4 (aOR: 2.41; 95%CI: 1.39, 2.87, respectively), having 0 children, compared to 2+ (aOR: 1.96; 95%CIs: 1.23, 3.12), and vaccination recommended by a health-care provider (aOR: 8.25; 95%CI: 6.11, 11.14) were strongly associated with receipt of influenza vaccine during pregnancy.Conclusions: Our findings identify opportunities for targeted interventions to improve influenza vaccine uptake among pregnant women in these settings.

Performance of Symptom-Based Case Definitions to Identify Influenza Virus Infection Among Pregnant Women in Middle-Income Countries: Findings From the Pregnancy and Influenza Multinational Epidemiologic (PRIME) Study.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends case definitions for influenza surveillance that are also used in public health research, although their performance has not been assessed in many risk groups, including pregnant women in whom influenza may manifest differently. We evaluated the performance of symptom-based definitions to detect influenza in a cohort of pregnant women in India, Peru, and Thailand. METHODS: In 2017 and 2018, we contacted 11 277 pregnant women twice weekly during the influenza season to identify illnesses with new or worsened cough, runny nose, sore throat, difficulty breathing, or myalgia and collected data on other symptoms and nasal swabs for influenza real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) testing. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive-predictive value, and negative-predictive value of each symptom predictor, WHO respiratory illness case definitions, and a de novo definition derived from results of multivariable modeling. RESULTS: Of 5444 eligible illness episodes among 3965 participants, 310 (6%) were positive for influenza. In a multivariable model, measured fever ≥38°C (adjusted odds ratio [95% confidence interval], 4.6 [3.1-6.8]), myalgia (3.0 [2.2-4.0]), cough (2.7 [1.9-3.9]), and chills (1.6 [1.1-2.4]) were independently associated with influenza illness. A definition based on these 4 (measured fever, cough, chills, or myalgia) was 95% sensitive and 27% specific. The WHO influenza-like illness (ILI) definition was 16% sensitive and 98% specific. CONCLUSIONS: The current WHO ILI case definition was highly specific but had low sensitivity. The intended use of case definitions should be considered when evaluating the tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity.

Incidence of influenza during pregnancy and association with pregnancy and perinatal outcomes in three middle-income countries: a multisite prospective longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Influenza vaccination during pregnancy prevents influenza among women and their infants but remains underused among pregnant women. We aimed to quantify the risk of antenatal influenza and examine its association with perinatal outcomes. METHODS: We did a prospective cohort study in pregnant women in India, Peru, and Thailand. Before the 2017 and 2018 influenza seasons, we enrolled pregnant women aged 18 years or older with expected delivery dates 8 weeks or more after the season started. We contacted women twice weekly until the end of pregnancy to identify illnesses with symptoms of myalgia, cough, runny nose or nasal congestion, sore throat, or difficulty breathing and collected mid-turbinate nasal swabs from symptomatic women for influenza real-time RT-PCR testing. We assessed the association of antenatal influenza with preterm birth, late pregnancy loss (≥13 weeks gestation), small for gestational age (SGA), and birthweight of term singleton infants using Cox proportional hazards models or generalised linear models to adjust for potential confounders. FINDINGS: Between March 13, 2017, and Aug 3, 2018, we enrolled 11 277 women with a median age of 26 years (IQR 23-31) and gestational age of 19 weeks (14-24). 1474 (13%) received influenza vaccines. 310 participants (3%) had influenza (270 [87%] influenza A and 40 [13%] influenza B). Influenza incidences weighted by the population of women of childbearing age in each study country were 88·7 per 10 000 pregnant woman-months (95% CI 68·6 to 114·8) during the 2017 season and 69·6 per 10 000 pregnant woman-months (53·8 to 90·2) during the 2018 season. Antenatal influenza was not associated with preterm birth (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1·4, 95% CI 0·9 to 2·0; p=0·096) or having an SGA infant (adjusted relative risk 1·0, 95% CI 0·8 to 1·3, p=0·97), but was associated with late pregnancy loss (aHR 10·7, 95% CI 4·3 to 27·0; p<0·0001) and reduction in mean birthweight of term, singleton infants (-55·3 g, 95% CI -109·3 to -1·4; p=0·0445). INTERPRETATION: Women had a 0·7-0·9% risk of influenza per month of pregnancy during the influenza season, and antenatal influenza was associated with increased risk for some adverse pregnancy outcomes. These findings support the added value of antenatal influenza vaccination to improve perinatal outcomes. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. TRANSLATIONS: For the Thai, Hindi, Marathi and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Prospective cohort study of influenza vaccine effectiveness among healthcare personnel in Lima, Peru: Estudio Vacuna de Influenza Peru, 2016-2018.

BACKGROUND: The Estudio Vacuna de Influenza Peru (VIP) cohort aims to describe the frequency of influenza virus infection, identify predictors of vaccine acceptance, examine the effects of repeated influenza vaccination on immunogenicity, and evaluate influenza vaccine effectiveness among HCP. METHODS: The VIP cohort prospectively followed HCP in Lima, Peru, during the 2016-2018 influenza seasons; a fourth year is ongoing. Participants contribute blood samples before and after the influenza season and after influenza vaccination (for vaccinees). Weekly surveillance is conducted to identify acute respiratory or febrile illnesses (ARFI). When an ARFI is identified, participants self-collect nasal swabs that are tested for influenza viruses by real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction. Influenza vaccination status and 5-year vaccination history are ascertained. We analyzed recruitment and enrollment results for 2016-2018 and surveillance participation for 2016-2017. RESULTS: In the first 3 years of the cohort, VIP successfully contacted 92% of potential participants, enrolled 76% of eligible HCP, and retained >90% of participants across years. About half of participants are medical assistants (54%), and most provide "hands-on" medical care (76%). Sixty-nine percent and 52% of participants completed surveillance for >70% of weeks in years 1 and 2, respectively. Fewer weeks of completed surveillance was associated with older age (≥50 years), being a medical assistant, self-rated health of fair or poor, and not receiving the influenza vaccine during the current season (P-values < .05). CONCLUSIONS: The VIP cohort provides an opportunity to address knowledge gaps about influenza virus infection, vaccination uptake, effectiveness and immunogenicity among HCP.

A community-based survey on influenza and vaccination knowledge, perceptions and practices in Peru.

BACKGROUND: Although Peru provides safe and effective influenza vaccines free-of-charge, coverage among vaccine target groups like pregnant women and older adults remains low. To improve risk communication messages and vaccine uptake, we explored knowledge, perceptions and practices about influenza illness and vaccination. METHODS: A cross-sectional, community-based survey with a three-stage cluster sampling design was conducted in three cities in Peru. We included mothers of young children, pregnant women and persons ≥65 years. Participants completed a questionnaire about knowledge, perceptions and practices about influenza illness and vaccination against influenza during the past year. Generalized linear models were used to explore factors associated with vaccination in the past year. RESULTS: 624/645 (97%) mothers, 54/55 (98%) pregnant women and 622/673 (92%) older adults approached provided informed consent and were surveyed. While most mothers, pregnant women and older adults (94%, 96% and 91%, respectively) perceived influenza as a potentially serious illness, few pregnant women (13%) and older adults (34%) self-identified themselves as a target group for influenza vaccination. Only 28% of mothers, 19% pregnant women, and 27% older adults were vaccinated against influenza during the previous year. Among the participants that did not get vaccinated against influenza in the previous year, "being afraid of vaccination and its effects" was the most commonly cited barrier. Knowledge of the recommendation for annual vaccination was significantly associated with vaccination status among pregnant women (p = 0.048) and older adults (p = 0.004). CONCLUSION: Despite a government subsidized vaccine program, vaccine utilization remained low among pregnant women and older adults, who seemed typically unaware of their status as high-risk groups targeted for vaccination. Those aware of the recommendations for annual vaccination were more likely to be vaccinated. Information campaigns addressing fears and highlighting populations at risk for severe influenza illness that are targeted for vaccination might increase vaccine coverage in Peru.

The Pregnancy and Influenza Multinational Epidemiologic (PRIME) study: a prospective cohort study of the impact of influenza during pregnancy among women in middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization identifies pregnant women as at high-risk for severe influenza, but influenza vaccines are underutilized among pregnant women. Data on influenza burden during pregnancy are largely limited to high-income countries and data on the impact of influenza on birth and perinatal outcomes are scarce. METHODS/DESIGN: This prospective, longitudinal cohort study of pregnant women in middle-income countries is designed to address three primary objectives: 1) to evaluate the effect of laboratory-confirmed influenza during pregnancy on pregnancy and perinatal outcomes; 2) to estimate the incidences of all-cause acute respiratory illness and laboratory-confirmed influenza during pregnancy; and 3) to examine the clinical spectrum of illness associated with influenza viruses. Through a multi-country network approach, three sites aim to enroll cohorts of 1500-3000 pregnant women just before local influenza seasons. Women aged ≥ 18 years with expected delivery dates ≥ 8 weeks after the start of the influenza season are eligible. Women are followed throughout pregnancy through twice weekly surveillance for influenza symptoms (≥ 1 of myalgia, cough, runny nose, sore throat, or difficulty breathing) and have mid-turbinate nasal swabs collected for influenza virus testing during illness episodes. Primary outcomes include relative risk of preterm birth and mean birth weight among term singleton infants of women with and without reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction-confirmed influenza during pregnancy. Gestational age is determined by ultrasound at < 28 weeks gestation and birth weight is measured by digital scales using standardized methods. Sites are primarily urban in Bangkok, Thailand; Lima, Peru; and Nagpur, India. All sites recruit from antenatal clinics at referral hospitals and conduct surveillance using telephone calls, messaging applications, or home visits. Nasal swabs are self-collected by participants in Thailand and by study staff in Peru and India. During the first year (2017), sites enrolled participants during March-May in Peru and May-July in India and Thailand; 4779 women were enrolled. DISCUSSION: This study aims to generate evidence of the impact of influenza during pregnancy to inform decisions by Ministries of Health, healthcare providers, and pregnant women in middle-income countries about the value of influenza vaccination during pregnancy.

Incidence of Norovirus-Associated Diarrhea and Vomiting Disease Among Children and Adults in a Community Cohort in the Peruvian Amazon Basin.

BACKGROUND: Data on norovirus epidemiology among all ages in community settings are scarce, especially from tropical settings. METHODS: We implemented active surveillance in 297 households in Peru from October 2012 to August 2015 to assess the burden of diarrhea and acute gastroenteritis (AGE) due to norovirus in a lower-middle-income community. During period 1 (October 2012-May 2013), we used a "traditional" diarrhea case definition (≥3 loose/liquid stools within 24 hours). During period 2 (June 2013-August 2015), we used an expanded case definition of AGE (by adding ≥2 vomiting episodes without diarrhea or 1-2 vomiting episodes plus 1-2 loose/liquid stools within 24 hours). Stool samples were tested for norovirus by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: During period 1, overall diarrhea and norovirus-associated diarrhea incidence was 37.2/100 person-years (PY) (95% confidence interval [CI], 33.2-41.7) and 5.7/100 PY (95% CI, 3.9-8.1), respectively. During period 2, overall AGE and norovirus-associated AGE incidence was 51.8/100 PY (95% CI, 48.8-54.9) and 6.5/100 PY (95% CI, 5.4-7.8), respectively. In both periods, children aged <2 years had the highest incidence of norovirus. Vomiting without diarrhea occurred among norovirus cases in participants <15 years old, but with a higher proportion among children <2 years, accounting for 35% (7/20) of all cases in this age group. Noroviruses were identified in 7% (23/335) of controls free of gastroenteric symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Norovirus was a significant cause of AGE in this community, especially among children <2 years of age. Inclusion of vomiting in the case definition resulted in a 20% improvement for detection of norovirus cases.

Burden of Influenza in 4 Ecologically Distinct Regions of Peru: Household Active Surveillance of a Community Cohort, 2009-2015.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on the burden of disease posed by influenza in low- and middle-income countries. Furthermore, most estimates of influenza disease burden worldwide rely on passive sentinel surveillance at health clinics and hospitals that lack accurate population denominators. METHODS: We documented influenza incidence, seasonality, health-system utilization with influenza illness, and vaccination coverage through active community-based surveillance in 4 ecologically distinct regions of Peru over 6 years. Approximately 7200 people in 1500 randomly selected households were visited 3 times per week. Naso- and oropharyngeal swabs were collected from persons with influenza-like illness and tested for influenza virus by real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: We followed participants for 35353 person-years (PY). The overall incidence of influenza was 100 per 1000 PY (95% confidence interval [CI], 97-104) and was highest in children aged 2-4 years (256/1000 PY [95% CI, 236-277]). Seasonal incidence trends were similar across sites, with 61% of annual influenza cases occurring during the austral winter (May-September). Of all participants, 44 per 1000 PY (95% CI, 42-46) sought medical care, 0.7 per 1000 PY (95% CI, 0.4-1.0) were hospitalized, and 1 person died (2.8/100000 PY). Influenza vaccine coverage was 27% among children aged 6-23 months and 26% among persons aged ≥65 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that 1 in 10 persons develops influenza each year in Peru, with the highest incidence in young children. Active community-based surveillance allows for a better understanding of the true burden and seasonality of disease that is essential to plan the optimal target groups, timing, and cost of national influenza vaccination programs.

Evaluating Google Flu Trends in Latin America: Important Lessons for the Next Phase of Digital Disease Detection.

BACKGROUND: Latin America has a substantial burden of influenza and rising Internet access and could benefit from real-time influenza epidemic prediction web tools such as Google Flu Trends (GFT) to assist in risk communication and resource allocation during epidemics. However, there has never been a published assessment of GFT's accuracy in most Latin American countries or in any low- to middle-income country. Our aim was to evaluate GFT in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. METHODS: Weekly influenza-test positive proportions for the eight countries were obtained from FluNet for the period January 2011-December 2014. Concurrent weekly Google-predicted influenza activity in the same countries was abstracted from GFT. Pearson correlation coefficients between observed and Google-predicted influenza activity trends were determined for each country. Permutation tests were used to examine background seasonal correlation between FluNet and GFT by country. RESULTS: There were frequent GFT prediction errors, with correlation ranging from r = -0.53 to 0.91. GFT-predicted influenza activity best correlated with FluNet data in Mexico follow by Uruguay, Argentina, Chile, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia and Paraguay. Correlation was generally highest in the more temperate countries with more regular influenza seasonality and lowest in tropical regions. A substantial amount of autocorrelation was noted, suggestive that GFT is not fully specific for influenza virus activity. CONCLUSIONS: We note substantial inaccuracies with GFT-predicted influenza activity compared with FluNet throughout Latin America, particularly among tropical countries with irregular influenza seasonality. Our findings offer valuable lessons for future Internet-based biosurveillance tools.

A population-based estimate of the economic burden of influenza in Peru, 2009-2010.

INTRODUCTION: Influenza disease burden and economic impact data are needed to assess the potential value of interventions. Such information is limited from resource-limited settings. We therefore studied the cost of influenza in Peru. METHODS: We used data collected during June 2009-December 2010 from laboratory-confirmed influenza cases identified through a household cohort in Peru. We determined the self-reported direct and indirect costs of self-treatment, outpatient care, emergency ward care, and hospitalizations through standardized questionnaires. We recorded costs accrued 15-day from illness onset. Direct costs represented medication, consultation, diagnostic fees, and health-related expenses such as transportation and phone calls. Indirect costs represented lost productivity during days of illness by both cases and caregivers. We estimated the annual economic cost and the impact of a case of influenza on a household. RESULTS: There were 1321 confirmed influenza cases, of which 47% sought health care. Participants with confirmed influenza illness paid a median of $13 [interquartile range (IQR) 5-26] for self-treatment, $19 (IQR 9-34) for ambulatory non-medical attended illness, $29 (IQR 14-51) for ambulatory medical attended illness, and $171 (IQR 113-258) for hospitalizations. Overall, the projected national cost of an influenza illness was $83-$85 millions. Costs per influenza illness represented 14% of the monthly household income of the lowest income quartile (compared to 3% of the highest quartile). CONCLUSION: Influenza virus infection causes an important economic burden, particularly among the poorest families and those hospitalized. Prevention strategies such as annual influenza vaccination program targeting SAGE population at risk could reduce the overall economic impact of seasonal influenza.

Transmission dynamics of pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in humans and swine in backyard farms in Tumbes, Peru.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine the frequency of pH1N1 transmission between humans and swine on backyard farms in Tumbes, Peru. DESIGN: Two-year serial cross-sectional study comprising four sampling periods: March 2009 (pre-pandemic), October 2009 (peak of the pandemic in Peru), April 2010 (1st post-pandemic period), and October 2011 (2nd post-pandemic period). SAMPLE: Backyard swine serum, tracheal swabs, and lung sample were collected during each sampling period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We assessed current and past pH1N1 infection in swine through serological testing, virus culture, and RT-PCR and compared the results with human incidence data from a population-based active surveillance cohort study in Peru. RESULTS: Among 1303 swine sampled, the antibody prevalence to pH1N1 was 0% pre-pandemic, 8% at the peak of the human pandemic (October 2009), and 24% in April 2010 and 1% in October 2011 (post-pandemic sampling periods). Trends in swine seropositivity paralleled those seen in humans in Tumbes. The pH1N1 virus was isolated from three pigs during the peak of the pandemic. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that these viruses likely represent two separate human-to-swine transmission events in backyard farm settings. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that human-to-swine pH1N1 transmission occurred during the pandemic among backyard farms in Peru, emphasizing the importance of interspecies transmission in backyard pig populations. Continued surveillance for influenza viruses in backyard farms is warranted.

Human Coronavirus-Associated Influenza-Like Illness in the Community Setting in Peru.

We present findings describing the epidemiology of non-severe acute respiratory syndrome human coronavirus-associated influenza-like illness from a population-based active follow-up study in four different regions of Peru. In 2010, the prevalence of infections by human coronaviruses 229E, OC43, NL63, or HKU1 was 6.4% in participants with influenza-like illness who tested negative for influenza viruses. Ten of 11 human coronavirus infections were identified in the fall-winter season. Human coronaviruses are present in different regions of Peru and are relatively frequently associated with influenza-like illness in Peru.

Phylogeography of Influenza A(H3N2) Virus in Peru, 2010-2012.

It remains unclear whether lineages of influenza A(H3N2) virus can persist in the tropics and seed temperate areas. We used viral gene sequence data sampled from Peru to test this source-sink model for a Latin American country. Viruses were obtained during 2010-2012 from influenza surveillance cohorts in Cusco, Tumbes, Puerto Maldonado, and Lima. Specimens positive for influenza A(H3N2) virus were randomly selected and underwent hemagglutinin sequencing and phylogeographic analyses. Analysis of 389 hemagglutinin sequences from Peru and 2,192 global sequences demonstrated interseasonal extinction of Peruvian lineages. Extensive mixing occurred with global clades, but some spatial structure was observed at all sites; this structure was weakest in Lima and Puerto Maldonado, indicating that these locations may experience greater viral traffic. The broad diversity and co-circulation of many simultaneous lineages of H3N2 virus in Peru suggests that this country should not be overlooked as a potential source for novel pandemic strains.

Andes hantavirus variant in rodents, southern Amazon Basin, Peru.

We investigated hantaviruses in rodents in the southern Amazon Basin of Peru and identified an Andes virus variant from Neacomys spinosus mice. This finding extends the known range of this virus in South America and the range of recognized hantaviruses in Peru. Further studies of the epizoology of hantaviruses in this region are warranted.