Dynamic prediction of mortality in COVID-19 patients in the intensive care unit: A retrospective multi-center cohort study.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic continues to overwhelm intensive care units (ICUs) worldwide, and improved prediction of mortality among COVID-19 patients could assist decision making in the ICU setting. In this work, we report on the development and validation of a dynamic mortality model specifically for critically ill COVID-19 patients and discuss its potential utility in the ICU. Methods: We collected electronic medical record (EMR) data from 3222 ICU admissions with a COVID-19 infection from 25 different ICUs in the Netherlands. We extracted daily observations of each patient and fitted both a linear (logistic regression) and non-linear (random forest) model to predict mortality within 24 h from the moment of prediction. Isotonic regression was used to re-calibrate the predictions of the fitted models. We evaluated the models in a leave-one-ICU-out (LOIO) cross-validation procedure. Results: The logistic regression and random forest model yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.87 [0.85; 0.88] and 0.86 [0.84; 0.88], respectively. The recalibrated model predictions showed a calibration intercept of -0.04 [-0.12; 0.04] and slope of 0.90 [0.85; 0.95] for logistic regression model and a calibration intercept of -0.19 [-0.27; -0.10] and slope of 0.89 [0.84; 0.94] for the random forest model. Discussion: We presented a model for dynamic mortality prediction, specifically for critically ill COVID-19 patients, which predicts near-term mortality rather than in-ICU mortality. The potential clinical utility of dynamic mortality models such as benchmarking, improving resource allocation and informing family members, as well as the development of models with more causal structure, should be topics for future research.

Symptomatic rebound methaemoglobinaemia after treatment with dapsone.

A 28-year-old female patient was admitted to our hospital with severe dyspnoea and hypoxemia due to methaemoglobinaemia caused by dapsone. The patient recovered completely after repeated infusions of methylene blue and cessation of dapsone. However, 12 days after cessation of dapsone, the patient was readmitted due to recurrence of symptoms based on a relapse of methaemoglobinaemia. Toxicological analysis revealed a toxic dapsone level at readmission and no other explanation for methaemoglobinaemia. Several possible mechanisms as explanation for the recurrence of methaemoglobinaemia are listed and additional tests were performed. In addition to supportive care, treatment consisted of methylene blue; furthermore, cimetidine and ascorbic acid were added. An overview of the pathophysiology, diagnostics, treatment, and possible explanations for this relapse of methaemoglobinaemia caused by dapsone are given. This case shows the importance of considering the possibility of a late rebound methaemoglobinaemia after discontinuation of dapsone.

Hypoxia disturbs fetal hemodynamics and growth.

Low-birth-weight babies have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in later life. The authors hypothesize that fetal hypoxia alters the structure and function of the developing cardiovascular system resulting in CVD. They investigated the effects of chronic hypoxia on cardiac performance, hemodynamic control, and growth during the second half of embryonic chick development. Three stages of hemodynamic adaptations were identified in hypoxic chick embryos. At embryonic day 13 (E13), heart rate and blood pressure were higher in hypoxic embryos. At E17, this was followed by sympathetic hyperinnervation of peripheral arteries, resulting in increased vasoconstriction during a chemoreflex. This was accompanied by dilatation of the left ventricle and a 50% reduction in cardiac contractility. E19 hypoxic embryos had a 33% higher baseline vascular tone, but failed to maintain blood pressure during acute stress, indicating cardiac failure. Reduced body, heart, and liver weights followed the hemodynamic changes. Chronic hypoxia induces dilated cardiomyopathy and sympathetic hyperinnervation of the peripheral vasculature leading to aberrant fetal hemodynamics and fetal growth restriction. This study identifies that alterations in fetal hemodynamic regulation are in the causal pathway between disturbances in fetal environment, restricted fetal growth and CVD, and establishes fetal hypoxia as a novel risk factor for cardiovascular disease.

Hypoxia induces aortic hypertrophic growth, left ventricular dysfunction, and sympathetic hyperinnervation of peripheral arteries in the chick embryo.

BACKGROUND: Low birth weight is associated with an increased incidence of cardiovascular diseases, including hypertension, later in life. This suggests that antenatal insults program for fetal adaptations of the circulatory system. In the present study, we evaluated the effects of mild hypoxia on cardiac function, blood pressure control, and arterial structure and function in near-term chick embryos. METHODS AND RESULTS: Chick embryos were incubated under normoxic (21% O2) or hypoxic (15% O2) conditions and evaluated at incubation day 19 by use of histological techniques, isolated heart preparations, and in vivo measurements of sympathetic arterial tone and systemic hemodynamics. Chronic hypoxia caused a 33% increase in mortality and an 11% reduction in body weight in surviving embryos. The lumen of the ascending aorta in hypoxic embryos was 23% smaller. Left ventricular systolic pressure was 22% lower, and heart weight/body weight ratio was 14% higher. In resistance arteries of hypoxic embryos, in vivo baseline tone was 23% higher, norepinephrine sensitivity was similar, and norepinephrine release from sympathetic nerves increased 2-fold, indicating sympathetic hyperinnervation. Mean arterial pressure and heart rate were similar under resting conditions, but chronically hypoxic embryos failed to maintain blood pressure during acute stress. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that mild hypoxia during embryonic development induces alterations in cardiac and vascular function and structure and affects hemodynamic regulation. These findings reveal that antenatal insults have profound effects on the control and design of the circulatory system that are already established at birth and may program for hypertension and heart failure at a later age.