Health care and the future of economic growth: exploring alternative perspectives.

The strong and positive relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and health expenditure is one of the most extensively explored topics in health economics. Since the global financial crisis, a variety of theories attempting to explain the slow recovery of the global economy have predicted that future economic growth will be slower than in the past. Others have increasingly questioned whether GDP growth is desirable or sustainable in the long term as evidence grows of humanity's impact on the natural environment. This paper reviews recent data on trends in global GDP growth and health expenditure. It examines a range of theories and scenarios concerning future global GDP growth prospects. It then considers the potential implications for health care systems and health financing policy of these different scenarios. In all cases, a core question concerns whether growth in GDP and/or growth in health expenditure in fact increases human health and well-being. Health care systems in low growth or 'post-growth' futures will need to be much more tightly focused on reducing overtreatment and low value care, reducing environmental impact, and on improving technical and allocative efficiency. This will require much more concerted policy and regulatory action to reduce industry rent-seeking behaviours.

"Too much medicine": Insights and explanations from economic theory and research.

Increasing attention has been paid in recent years to the problem of "too much medicine", whereby patients receive unnecessary investigations and treatments providing them with little or no benefit, but which expose them to risks of harm. Despite this phenomenon potentially constituting an inefficient use of health care resources, it has received limited direct attention from health economists. This paper considers "too much medicine" as a form of overconsumption, drawing on research from health economics, behavioural economics and ecological economics to identify possible explanations for and drivers of overconsumption. We define overconsumption of health care as a situation in which individuals consume in a way that undermines their own well-being. Extensive health economics research since the 1960s has provided clear evidence that physicians do not act as perfect agents for patients, and there are perverse incentives for them to provide unnecessary services under various circumstances. There is strong evidence of the existence of supplier-induced demand, and of the impact of various forms of financial incentives on clinical practice. The behavioural economics evidence provides rich insights on why clinical practice may depart from an "evidence-based" approach. Moreover, behavioural findings on health professionals' strategies for dealing with uncertainty, and for avoiding potential regret, provide powerful explanations of why overuse and overtreatment may frequently appear to be the "rational" choice in clinical decision-making, even when they cause harm. The ecological economics literature suggests that status or positional competition can, via the principal-agent relationship in health care, provide a further force driving overconsumption. This novel synthesis of economic perspectives suggests important scope for interdisciplinary collaboration; signals potentially important issues for health technology assessment and health technology management policies; and suggests that cultural change might be required to achieve significant shifts in clinical behaviour.