A framework for assessing interactions for risk stratification models: the example of ovarian cancer.

Generally, risk stratification models for cancer use effect estimates from risk/protective factor analyses that have not assessed potential interactions between these exposures. We have developed a 4-criterion framework for assessing interactions that includes statistical, qualitative, biological, and practical approaches. We present the application of this framework in an ovarian cancer setting because this is an important step in developing more accurate risk stratification models. Using data from 9 case-control studies in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of interactions among 15 unequivocal risk and protective factors for ovarian cancer (including 14 non-genetic factors and a 36-variant polygenic score) with age and menopausal status. Pairwise interactions between the risk/protective factors were also assessed. We found that menopausal status modifies the association among endometriosis, first-degree family history of ovarian cancer, breastfeeding, and depot-medroxyprogesterone acetate use and disease risk, highlighting the importance of understanding multiplicative interactions when developing risk prediction models.

Effects of risk factors for ovarian cancer in women with and without endometriosis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the associations between 10 well-established ovarian cancer risk factors and risk of ovarian cancer among women with vs. without endometriosis. DESIGN: Pooled analysis of 9 case-control studies in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium. SETTING: Population-based. PATIENT(S): We included 8,500 women with ovarian cancer, 13,592 control women. INTERVENTION(S): Ten well-established ovarian cancer risk factors. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Risk of ovarian cancer for women with and without endometriosis. RESULT(S): Most risk factor-ovarian cancer associations were similar when comparing women with and without endometriosis, and no interactions were statistically significant. However, body mass index (BMI) 25-<30 kg/m2 was associated with increased ovarian cancer risk among women with endometriosis (odds ratio [OR] = 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00-1.60), but not associated with the risk among women without endometriosis (OR = 0.97; 95% CI, 0.91-1.05) when compared with BMI 18.5-<25 kg/m2; an increased risk was observed for a BMI ≥30 kg/m2, although there was little difference comparing women with endometriosis (OR = 1.21; 95% CI, 0.94-1.57) to women without (OR = 1.13; 95% CI, 1.04-1.22) (P-interaction = .51). Genital talcum powder use and long-term menopausal estrogen-only therapy use showed increased ovarian cancer risk, but risk appeared greater for those with endometriosis vs. those without (genital talcum powder: OR = 1.38; 95% CI, 1.04-1.84 vs. OR = 1.12; 95% CI, 1.01-1.25, respectively; ≥10 years of estrogen-only therapy: OR = 1.88; 95% CI, 1.09-3.24 vs. OR = 1.42; 95% CI, 1.14-1.76, respectively); neither of these interactions were statistically significant (P-interaction = .65 and P-interaction = .96, respectively). CONCLUSION(S): The associations between ovarian cancer and most risk factors were similar among women with and without endometriosis. However, there was some suggestion of differences by endometriosis status for BMI, menopausal hormone therapy use, and genital talcum powder use, highlighting the complexity of ovarian cancer etiology.

Association of Second-Opinion Strategies in the Histopathologic Diagnosis of Cutaneous Melanocytic Lesions With Diagnostic Accuracy and Population-Level Costs.

IMPORTANCE: Diagnostic variation among pathologists interpreting cutaneous melanocytic lesions could lead to suboptimal care. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the potential association of second-opinion strategies in the histopathologic diagnosis of cutaneous melanocytic lesions with diagnostic accuracy and 1-year population-level costs in the US. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Decision analysis with 1-year time horizon including melanocytic lesion diagnoses available from US pathologists participating in the Melanoma Pathology Study (M-Path) and from the study panel of reference pathologists who classified cases using the MPATH-Dx classification tool. M-Path data collection occurred from July 2013 through March 2015; analyses for the present study were performed between April 2015 and January 2021. EXPOSURES: Various second-opinion strategies for interpretation of melanocytic cutaneous lesions. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Estimated accuracy of pathologists' diagnoses, defined as concordance with the reference panel diagnoses, and 1-year postbiopsy medical costs under various second-opinion strategies. Expected percentage of concordant diagnoses, including percentages of overinterpretation and underinterpretation, and 1-year costs of medical care per 100 000 in the US population. RESULTS: Decision-analytic model parameters were based on diagnostic interpretations for 240 cases by 187 pathologists compared with reference panel diagnoses. Without second opinions, 83.2% of diagnoses in the US were estimated to be accurate-ie, concordant with the reference diagnosis; with overinterpretation (8.0%) or underinterpretation (8.8%), and 16 850 misclassified diagnoses per 100 000 biopsies. Accuracy increased under all second-opinion strategies. Accuracy (87.4% concordance with 3.6% overinterpretation and 9.1% underinterpretation) and cost (an increase of more than $10 million per 100 000 biopsies per year) were highest when second opinions were universal (eg, performed on all biopsies), relative to no second opinions. A selective second-opinion strategy based on pathologists' desire or institutional requirements for a second opinion was most accurate (86.5% concordance; 4.4% overinterpretation; 9.1% underinterpretation) and would reduce costs by more than $1.9 million per 100 000 skin biopsies relative to no second opinions. Improvements in diagnostic accuracy with all second-opinion strategies were associated with reductions in overinterpretation but not underinterpretation. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this decision-analytic model, selective second-opinion strategies for interpretation of melanocytic skin lesions showed the potential to improve diagnostic accuracy and decrease costs relative to no second opinions or universal second opinions.

Depot-Medroxyprogesterone Acetate Use Is Associated with Decreased Risk of Ovarian Cancer: The Mounting Evidence of a Protective Role of Progestins.

BACKGROUND: Combined oral contraceptive use is associated with a decreased risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer (ovarian cancer). There is suggestive evidence of an inverse association between progestin-only contraceptive use and ovarian cancer risk, but previous studies have been underpowered. METHODS: The current study used primary data from 7,977 women with ovarian cancer and 11,820 control women in seven case-control studies from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium to evaluate the association between use of depot-medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA), an injectable progestin-only contraceptive, and ovarian cancer risk. Logistic models were fit to determine the association between ever use of DMPA and ovarian cancer risk overall and by histotype. A systematic review of the association between DMPA use and ovarian cancer risk was conducted. RESULTS: Ever use of DMPA was associated with a 35% decreased risk of ovarian cancer overall (OR, 0.65; 95% confidence interval, 0.50-0.85). There was a statistically significant trend of decreasing risk with increasing duration of use (P trend < 0.001). The systematic review yielded six studies, four of which showed an inverse association and two showed increased risk. CONCLUSIONS: DMPA use appears to be associated with a decreased risk of ovarian cancer in a duration-dependent manner based on the preponderance of evidence. Further study of the mechanism through which DMPA use is associated with ovarian cancer is warranted. IMPACT: The results of this study are of particular interest given the rise in popularity of progestin-releasing intrauterine devices that have a substantially lower progestin dose than that in DMPA, but may have a stronger local effect.

Peripheral Blood Leukocyte Telomere Length and Endometriosis.

Endometriosis is a common gynecologic disease defined by the presence of endometrial-like tissue outside the uterine cavity. While its etiology is largely unknown, accumulating evidence suggests that inflammation plays a major role. Our objective was to investigate the association between peripheral blood leukocyte telomere length (LTL) and endometriosis using data from two large population-based studies, the New England Case-Control Study (NEC; n = 877) and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES; n = 2268). NEC control participants were identified through a combination of random digit dialing, drivers' license lists, and town resident lists. In NHANES, selection algorithms were used to identify a nationally representative sample. Blood samples and demographic, reproductive, and health-related information were available from both data sources. Endometriosis was defined as self-reported of physician-diagnosed endometriosis. LTL was measured using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Multivariable logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between LTL and endometriosis. Shorter LTL was associated with greater odds of history of endometriosis. In NEC, women with the shortest LTL tertile compared with the longest had a 2.5-fold greater odds of endometriosis (ORT3/T1 = 2.56, 95% CI = 1.16-5.63; p value, test for linear trend = 0.02). The association was stronger among women who usually experienced moderate or severe menstrual pain (OR T3/T1 = 3.50, 95% CI = 1.12-10.97). In NHANES, the data suggested a similar but attenuated association (ORT3/T1 = 1.29, 95% CI = 0.85-1.96). The observed associations in NEC suggest that shorter LTL may be associated with greater odds of endometriosis. A better understanding of how LTL influences endometriosis risk could elucidate novel disease pathophysiology.

Association Between Breastfeeding and Ovarian Cancer Risk.

Importance: Breastfeeding has been associated with a reduced risk of epithelial ovarian cancer in multiple studies, but others showed no association. Whether risk reduction extends beyond that provided by pregnancy alone or differs by histotype is unclear. Furthermore, the observed associations between duration and timing of breastfeeding with ovarian cancer risk have been inconsistent. Objective: To determine the association between breastfeeding (ie, ever/never, duration, timing) and ovarian cancer risk overall and by histotype. Design, Setting, and Participants: A pooled analysis of parous women with ovarian cancer and controls from 13 case-control studies participating in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium was performed. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs of the overall association were calculated using multivariable logistic regression and polytomous logistic regression for histotype-specific associations. All data were collected from individual sites from November 1989 to December 2009, and analysis took place from September 2017 to July 2019. Exposures: Data on breastfeeding history, including duration per child breastfed, age at first and last breastfeeding, and years since last breastfeeding were collected by questionnaire or interview and was harmonized across studies. Main Outcomes and Measures: Diagnosis of epithelial ovarian cancer. Results: A total of 9973 women with ovarian cancer (mean [SD] age, 57.4 [11.1] years) and 13 843 controls (mean [SD] age, 56.4 [11.7] years) were included. Breastfeeding was associated with a 24% lower risk of invasive ovarian cancer (odds ratio [OR], 0.76; 95% CI, 0.71-0.80). Independent of parity, ever having breastfed was associated with reduction in risk of all invasive ovarian cancers, particularly high-grade serous and endometrioid cancers. For a single breastfeeding episode, mean breastfeeding duration of 1 to 3 months was associated with 18% lower risk (OR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.76-0.88), and breastfeeding for 12 or more months was associated with a 34% lower risk (OR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.58-0.75). More recent breastfeeding was associated with a reduction in risk (OR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.47-0.66 for <10 years) that persisted for decades (OR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.77-0.90 for ≥30 years; P for trend = .02). Conclusions and Relevance: Breastfeeding is associated with a significant decrease in risk of ovarian cancer overall and for the high-grade serous subtype, the most lethal type of ovarian cancer. The findings suggest that breastfeeding is a potentially modifiable factor that may lower risk of ovarian cancer independent of pregnancy alone.

Fast food intake and excess weight gain over a 1-year period among preschool-age children.

BACKGROUND: Fast food is cross-sectionally associated with having overweight and obesity in young children. OBJECTIVES: To examine whether fast food intake independently contributes to the development of overweight and obesity among preschool-age children. METHODS: Prospective cohort of 3- to 5-year-old children (n = 541) followed for 1 year. Children's height and weight were objectively measured at baseline and study end. Parents reported their child's fast food intake frequency in the past week from 11 chain fast food restaurants in six online follow-up surveys, completed approximately 8 weeks apart. Poisson regression with robust standard errors modelled the risk of a child increasing in weight status (ie, transitioning from a having a healthy weight to having overweight or from having overweight to having obesity) over the study period in relation to their average weekly fast food intake, adjusted for sociodemographics, child obesogenic behaviours, and parent weight status. RESULTS: At baseline, 18.1% of children had overweight and 9.8% had obesity; 8.1% of children transitioned to a greater weight status over the 1-year period. Mean fast food intake frequency among consumers was 2.1 (SD: 1.4) times per week. The risk of increasing in weight status increased linearly with each additional time fast food was consumed in an average week over the study year (RR: 1.38; 95% CI, 1.13-1.67; P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: Greater fast food intake over 1 year was associated with increasing weight status during that time in this preschool-age cohort.

Development and validation of circulating CA125 prediction models in postmenopausal women.

BACKGROUND: Cancer Antigen 125 (CA125) is currently the best available ovarian cancer screening biomarker. However, CA125 has been limited by low sensitivity and specificity in part due to normal variation between individuals. Personal characteristics that influence CA125 could be used to improve its performance as screening biomarker. METHODS: We developed and validated linear and dichotomous (≥35 U/mL) circulating CA125 prediction models in postmenopausal women without ovarian cancer who participated in one of five large population-based studies: Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (PLCO, n = 26,981), European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC, n = 861), the Nurses' Health Studies (NHS/NHSII, n = 81), and the New England Case Control Study (NEC, n = 923). The prediction models were developed using stepwise regression in PLCO and validated in EPIC, NHS/NHSII and NEC. RESULT: The linear CA125 prediction model, which included age, race, body mass index (BMI), smoking status and duration, parity, hysterectomy, age at menopause, and duration of hormone therapy (HT), explained 5% of the total variance of CA125. The correlation between measured and predicted CA125 was comparable in PLCO testing dataset (r = 0.18) and external validation datasets (r = 0.14). The dichotomous CA125 prediction model included age, race, BMI, smoking status and duration, hysterectomy, time since menopause, and duration of HT with AUC of 0.64 in PLCO and 0.80 in validation dataset. CONCLUSIONS: The linear prediction model explained a small portion of the total variability of CA125, suggesting the need to identify novel predictors of CA125. The dichotomous prediction model showed moderate discriminatory performance which validated well in independent dataset. Our dichotomous model could be valuable in identifying healthy women who may have elevated CA125 levels, which may contribute to reducing false positive tests using CA125 as screening biomarker.

Influence of child-targeted fast food TV advertising exposure on fast food intake: A longitudinal study of preschool-age children.

INTRODUCTION: Fast food (FF) advertising is a potential risk factor for FF consumption among children, yet the impact of such advertising on children's FF intake has not been assessed in a longitudinal, naturalistic study. Whether parents' FF consumption mitigates advertising effects is also unknown. METHODS: One-year, longitudinal study among 624 preschool-age children, 3-5 years old, and one parent each recruited from New Hampshire, 2014-2015. Parents completed six online surveys every eight weeks and, at each, reported the number of times their children consumed FF in the past week. Each child's advertisement exposure was determined by counting the brand-specific FF advertisements aired within the programs they viewed on children's TV networks during the study. At baseline, parents reported the frequency of their own FF consumption. Data were analyzed in 2017-2018. RESULTS: Three FF brands targeted TV advertising to children during the study: McDonald's, Wendy's and Subway. Few children were exposed to child-targeted advertising for Wendy's or Subway. Results from adjusted Poisson regression models focused on McDonald's showed a differential effect of advertisement exposure on children's McDonald's intake in the past week (any or mean intake) by parental FF consumption (P < 0.01). Specifically, McDonald's intake was consistently high among children whose parents consumed FF more frequently (≥monthly), regardless of children's advertisement exposure. However, advertisement exposure increased the risk of McDonald's intake among children nearly two-fold when parents consumed FF less frequently (

Exposure to Child-Directed TV Advertising and Preschoolers' Intake of Advertised Cereals.

INTRODUCTION: Child-directed TV advertising is believed to influence children's diets, yet prospective studies in naturalistic settings are absent. This study examined if child-directed TV advertisement exposure for ten brands of high-sugar breakfast cereals was associated with children's intake of those brands prospectively. METHODS: Observational study of 624 preschool-age children and their parents conducted in New Hampshire, 2014-2015. Over 1 year, parents completed a baseline and six online follow-up surveys, one every 8 weeks. Children's exposure to high-sugar breakfast cereal TV advertisements was based on the network-specific TV programs children watched in the 7 days prior to each follow-up assessment, and parents reported children's intake of each advertised high-sugar breakfast cereal brand during that same 7-day period. Data were analyzed in 2017-2018. RESULTS: In the fully adjusted Poisson regression model accounting for repeated measures and brand-specific effects, children with high-sugar breakfast cereal advertisement exposure in the past 7 days (i.e., recent exposure; RR=1.34, 95% CI=1.04, 1.72), at any assessment in the past (RR=1.23, 95% CI=1.06, 1.42), or recent and past exposure (RR=1.37, 95% CI=1.15, 1.63) combined had an increased risk of brand-specific high-sugar breakfast cereal intake. Absolute risk difference of children's high-sugar breakfast cereal intake because of high-sugar breakfast cereal TV advertisement exposure varied by brand. CONCLUSIONS: This naturalistic study demonstrates that child-directed high-sugar breakfast cereal TV advertising was prospectively associated with brand-specific high-sugar breakfast cereal intake among preschoolers. Findings indicate that child-directed advertising influences begin earlier and last longer than previously demonstrated, highlighting limitations of current industry guidelines regarding the marketing of high-sugar foods to children under age 6 years.

Concordance and Reproducibility of Melanoma Staging According to the 7th vs 8th Edition of the AJCC Cancer Staging Manual.

IMPORTANCE: The recently updated American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) classification of cancer staging, the AJCC Cancer Staging Manual, 8th edition (AJCC 8), includes revisions to definitions of T1a vs T1b or greater. The Melanoma Pathology Study database affords a comparison,of pathologists' concordance and reproducibility in the microstaging of melanoma according to both the existing 7th edition (AJCC 7) and the new AJCC 8. OBJECTIVE: To compare AJCC 7 and AJCC 8 to examine whether changes to the definitions of T1a and T1b or greater are associated with changes in concordance and reproducibility. DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: In this diagnostic study conducted as part of the national Melanoma Pathology Study across US states, 187 pathologists interpreting melanocytic skin lesions in practice completed 4342 independent case interpretations of 116 invasive melanoma cases. A consensus reference diagnosis and participating pathologists' interpretations were classified into the Melanocytic Pathology Assessment Tool and Hierarchy for Diagnosis class IV (T1a) or class V ( T1b) using both the AJCC 7 and AJCC 8 criteria. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Concordance with consensus reference diagnosis, interobserver reproducibility, and intraobserver reproducibility. RESULTS: For T1a diagnoses, participating pathologists' concordance with the consensus reference diagnosis increased from 44% (95% CI, 41%-48%) to 54% (95% CI, 51%-57%) using AJCC 7 and AJCC 8 criteria, respectively. The concordance for cases of T1b or greater increased from 72% (95% CI, 69%-75%) to 78% (95% CI, 75%-80%). Intraobserver reproducibility of diagnoses also improved, increasing from 59% (95% CI, 56%-63%) to 64% (95% CI, 62%-67%) for T1a invasive melanoma, and from 74% (95% CI, 71%-76%) to 77% (95% CI, 74%-79%) for T1b or greater invasive melanoma cases. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Melanoma staging in AJCC 8 shows greater reproducibility and higher concordance with a reference standard. Improved classification of invasive melanoma can be expected after implementation of AJCC 8, suggesting a positive impact on patients. However, despite improvement, concordance and reproducibility remain low.

Malpractice Concerns, Defensive Medicine, and the Histopathology Diagnosis of Melanocytic Skin Lesions.

OBJECTIVES: The impact of malpractice concerns on pathologists' use of defensive medicine and interpretations of melanocytic skin lesions (MSLs) is unknown. METHODS: A total of 207 pathologists interpreting MSLs responded to a survey about past involvement in malpractice litigation, influence of malpractice concerns on diagnosis, and use of assurance behaviors (defensive medicine) to alleviate malpractice concerns. Assurance behaviors included requesting second opinions, additional slides, additional sampling, and ordering specialized tests. RESULTS: Of the pathologists, 27.5% reported that malpractice concerns influenced them toward a more severe MSL diagnosis. Nearly all (95.2%) pathologists reported practicing at least one assurance behavior due to malpractice concerns, and this practice was associated with being influenced toward a more severe MSL diagnosis (odds ratio, 2.72; 95% confidence interval, 1.41-5.26). CONCLUSIONS: One of four US skin pathologists upgrade MSL diagnosis due to malpractice concerns, and nearly all practice assurance behaviors. Assurance behaviors are associated with rendering a more severe MSL diagnosis.

Pathologist characteristics associated with accuracy and reproducibility of melanocytic skin lesion interpretation.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic interpretations of melanocytic skin lesions vary widely among pathologists, yet the underlying reasons remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: Identify pathologist characteristics associated with rates of accuracy and reproducibility. METHODS: Pathologists independently interpreted the same set of biopsy specimens from melanocytic lesions on 2 occasions. Diagnoses were categorized into 1 of 5 classes according to the Melanocytic Pathology Assessment Tool and Hierarchy for Diagnosis system. Reproducibility was determined by pathologists' concordance of diagnoses across 2 occasions. Accuracy was defined by concordance with a consensus reference standard. Associations of pathologist characteristics with reproducibility and accuracy were assessed individually and in multivariable logistic regression models. RESULTS: Rates of diagnostic reproducibility and accuracy were highest among pathologists with board certification and/or fellowship training in dermatopathology and in those with 5 or more years of experience. In addition, accuracy was high among pathologists with a higher proportion of melanocytic lesions in their caseload composition and higher volume of melanocytic lesions. LIMITATIONS: Data gathered in a test set situation by using a classification tool not currently in clinical use. CONCLUSION: Diagnoses are more accurate among pathologists with specialty training and those with more experience interpreting melanocytic lesions. These findings support the practice of referring difficult cases to more experienced pathologists to improve diagnostic accuracy, although the impact of these referrals on patient outcomes requires additional research.

Pathologists' Use of Second Opinions in Interpretation of Melanocytic Cutaneous Lesions: Policies, Practices, and Perceptions.

BACKGROUND: Research examining the role of second opinions in pathology for diagnosis of melanocytic lesions is limited. OBJECTIVE: To assess current laboratory policies, clinical use of second opinions, and pathologists' perceptions of second opinions for melanocytic lesions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Cross-sectional data collected from 207 pathologists in 10 US states who diagnose melanocytic lesions. The web-based survey ascertained pathologists' professional information, laboratory second opinion policy, use of second opinions, and perceptions of second opinion value for melanocytic lesions. RESULTS: Laboratory policies required second opinions for 31% of pathologists and most commonly required for melanoma in situ (26%) and invasive melanoma (30%). In practice, most pathologists reported requesting second opinions for melanocytic tumors of uncertain malignant potential (85%) and atypical Spitzoid lesions (88%). Most pathologists perceived that second opinions increased interpretive accuracy (78%) and protected them from malpractice lawsuits (62%). CONCLUSION: Use of second opinions in clinical practice is greater than that required by laboratory policies, especially for melanocytic tumors of uncertain malignant potential and atypical Spitzoid lesions. Quality of care in surgical interventions for atypical melanocytic proliferations critically depends on the accuracy of diagnosis in pathology reporting. Future research should examine the extent to which second opinions improve accuracy of melanocytic lesion diagnosis.

Menstrual pain and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer: Results from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium.

Menstrual pain, a common gynecological condition, has been associated with increased risk of ovarian cancer in some, but not all studies. Furthermore, potential variations in the association between menstrual pain and ovarian cancer by histologic subtype have not been adequately evaluated due to lack of power. We assessed menstrual pain using either direct questions about having experienced menstrual pain, or indirect questions about menstrual pain as indication for use of hormones or medications. We used multivariate logistic regression to calculate the odds ratio (OR) for the association between severe menstrual pain and ovarian cancer, adjusting for potential confounders and multinomial logistic regression to calculate ORs for specific histologic subtypes. We observed no association between ovarian cancer and menstrual pain assessed by indirect questions. Among studies using direct question, severe pain was associated with a small but significant increase in overall risk of ovarian cancer (OR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.01-1.13), after adjusting for endometriosis and other potential confounders. The association appeared to be more relevant for clear cell (OR = 1.48, 95% CI: 1.10-1.99) and serous borderline (OR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.05-1.63) subtypes. In this large international pooled analysis of case-control studies, we observed a small increase in risk of ovarian cancer for women reporting severe menstrual pain. While we observed an increased ovarian cancer risk with severe menstrual pain, the possibility of recall bias and undiagnosed endometriosis cannot be excluded. Future validation in prospective studies with detailed information on endometriosis is needed.

Pathologists' diagnosis of invasive melanoma and melanocytic proliferations: observer accuracy and reproducibility study.

Objective To quantify the accuracy and reproducibility of pathologists' diagnoses of melanocytic skin lesions.Design Observer accuracy and reproducibility study.Setting 10 US states.Participants Skin biopsy cases (n=240), grouped into sets of 36 or 48. Pathologists from 10 US states were randomized to independently interpret the same set on two occasions (phases 1 and 2), at least eight months apart.Main outcome measures Pathologists' interpretations were condensed into five classes: I (eg, nevus or mild atypia); II (eg, moderate atypia); III (eg, severe atypia or melanoma in situ); IV (eg, pathologic stage T1a (pT1a) early invasive melanoma); and V (eg, ≥pT1b invasive melanoma). Reproducibility was assessed by intraobserver and interobserver concordance rates, and accuracy by concordance with three reference diagnoses.Results In phase 1, 187 pathologists completed 8976 independent case interpretations resulting in an average of 10 (SD 4) different diagnostic terms applied to each case. Among pathologists interpreting the same cases in both phases, when pathologists diagnosed a case as class I or class V during phase 1, they gave the same diagnosis in phase 2 for the majority of cases (class I 76.7%; class V 82.6%). However, the intraobserver reproducibility was lower for cases interpreted as class II (35.2%), class III (59.5%), and class IV (63.2%). Average interobserver concordance rates were lower, but with similar trends. Accuracy using a consensus diagnosis of experienced pathologists as reference varied by class: I, 92% (95% confidence interval 90% to 94%); II, 25% (22% to 28%); III, 40% (37% to 44%); IV, 43% (39% to 46%); and V, 72% (69% to 75%). It is estimated that at a population level, 82.8% (81.0% to 84.5%) of melanocytic skin biopsy diagnoses would have their diagnosis verified if reviewed by a consensus reference panel of experienced pathologists, with 8.0% (6.2% to 9.9%) of cases overinterpreted by the initial pathologist and 9.2% (8.8% to 9.6%) underinterpreted.Conclusion Diagnoses spanning moderately dysplastic nevi to early stage invasive melanoma were neither reproducible nor accurate in this large study of pathologists in the USA. Efforts to improve clinical practice should include using a standardized classification system, acknowledging uncertainty in pathology reports, and developing tools such as molecular markers to support pathologists' visual assessments.

Child-targeted fast-food television advertising exposure is linked with fast-food intake among pre-school children.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether exposure to child-targeted fast-food (FF) television (TV) advertising is associated with children's FF intake in a non-experimental setting. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey conducted April-December 2013. Parents reported their pre-school child's TV viewing time, channels watched and past-week FF consumption. Responses were combined with a list of FF commercials (ads) aired on children's TV channels during the same period to calculate children's exposure to child-targeted TV ads for the following chain FF restaurants: McDonald's, Subway and Wendy's (MSW). SETTING: Paediatric and Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) clinics in New Hampshire, USA. SUBJECTS: Parents (n 548) with a child of pre-school age. RESULTS: Children's mean age was 4·4 years; 43·2 % ate MSW in the past week. Among the 40·8 % exposed to MSW ads, 23·3 % had low, 34·2 % moderate and 42·5 % high exposure. McDonald's accounted for over 70 % of children's MSW ad exposure and consumption. Children's MSW consumption was significantly associated with their ad exposure, but not overall TV viewing time. After adjusting for demographics, socio-economic status and other screen time, moderate MSW ad exposure was associated with a 31 % (95 % CI 1·12, 1·53) increase and high MSW ad exposure with a 26 % (95 % CI 1·13, 1·41) increase in the likelihood of consuming MSW in the past week. Further adjustment for parent FF consumption did not change the findings substantially. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to child-targeted FF TV advertising is positively associated with FF consumption among children of pre-school age, highlighting the vulnerability of young children to persuasive advertising and supporting recommendations to limit child-directed FF marketing.

Child-targeted TV advertising and preschoolers' consumption of high-sugar breakfast cereals.

Breakfast cereals represent the most highly advertised packaged food on child-targeted television, and most ads are for cereals high in sugar. This study examined whether children's TV exposure to child-targeted, high-sugar breakfast cereal (SBC) ads was associated with their consumption of those SBC brands. Parents of 3- to 5-year-old children were recruited from pediatric and Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) clinics in Southern New Hampshire, USA, and completed a cross-sectional survey between April-December 2013. Parents reported their child's consumption of SBC brands; whether their child had watched any of 11 kids' channels in the past week; their child's TV viewing time; and socio-demographics. Children's exposure to child-targeted SBC TV ads was calculated by combining TV channel and viewing time with advertising data for SBC ads aired on kids' TV channels during the same timeframe. Five hundred forty-eight parents completed surveys; 52.7% had an annual household income of $50,000 or less. Children's mean age was 4.4 years, 51.6% were female, and 72.5% were non-Hispanic white. In the past week, 56.9% (N = 312) of children ate SBCs advertised on kids' channels. Overall, 40.6% of children were exposed to child-targeted SBC TV ads in the past week. In fully adjusted analyses, the number of SBC brands children consumed was positively associated with their exposure to child-targeted SBC ads. Children consumed 14% (RR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.27) more SBC brands for every 10 SBC ads seen in the past 7 days. Exposure to child-targeted SBC TV advertising is positively associated with SBC brand consumption among preschool-aged children. These findings support recommendations to limit the marketing of high-sugar foods to young children.

Cigarette Smoking Before and After Breast Cancer Diagnosis: Mortality From Breast Cancer and Smoking-Related Diseases.

PURPOSE: Cigarette smoking increases overall mortality, but it is not established whether smoking is associated with breast cancer prognosis. METHODS: We evaluated the association between smoking status before and after breast cancer diagnosis and mortality in the Collaborative Breast Cancer and Women's Longevity Study, a population-based prospective observational study conducted in Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts. Participants included 20,691 women, ages 20 to 79 years, diagnosed with incident localized or regional invasive breast cancer between 1988 and 2008; a subset of 4,562 of these women were recontacted a median of 6 years after diagnosis. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs were calculated according to smoking status for death as a result of breast cancer; cancers of the lung, pharynx, or intrathoracic organs; other cancer; respiratory disease; and cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: During a median of 12 years, 6,778 women died, including 2,894 who died as a result of breast cancer. Active smokers 1 year before breast cancer diagnosis were more likely than never smokers to die of breast cancer (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.13 to 1.37), respiratory cancer (HR, 14.48; 95% CI, 9.89 to 21.21), other respiratory disease (HR, 6.02; 95% CI, 4.55 to 7.97), and cardiovascular disease (HR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.80 to 2.41). The 10% of women who continued to smoke after diagnosis were more likely than never smokers to die of breast cancer (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.13 to 2.60). When compared with women who continued to smoke after diagnosis, those who quit smoking after diagnosis had lower mortality from breast cancer (HR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.38 to 1.19) and respiratory cancer (HR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.16 to 0.95). CONCLUSION: Smoking before or after diagnosis was associated with a higher mortality from breast cancer and several other causes.

A toy story: Association between young children's knowledge of fast food toy premiums and their fast food consumption.

Fast food restaurants spend millions of dollars annually on child-targeted marketing, a substantial portion of which is allocated to toy premiums for kids' meals. The objectives of this study were to describe fast food toy premiums, and examine whether young children's knowledge of fast food toy premiums was associated with their fast food consumption. Parents of 3- to 5-year old children were recruited from pediatric and WIC clinics in Southern New Hampshire, and completed a cross-sectional survey between April 2013-March 2014. Parents reported whether their children usually knew what toys were being offered at fast food restaurants, and whether children had eaten at any of four restaurants that offer toy premiums with kids' meals (McDonald's, Burger King, Subway, Wendy's) during the 7 days preceding the survey. Seventy-one percent of eligible parents participated (N = 583); 48.4% did not receive any education beyond high school, and 27.1% of children were non-white. Half (49.7%) the children had eaten at one or more of the four fast food restaurants in the past week; one-third (33.9%) had eaten at McDonald's. The four restaurants released 49 unique toy premiums during the survey period; McDonald's released half of these. Even after controlling for parent fast food consumption and sociodemographics, children were 1.38 (95% CI = 1.04, 1.82) times more likely to have consumed McDonald's if they usually knew what toys were offered by fast food restaurants. We did not detect a relationship between children's toy knowledge and their intake of fast food from the other restaurants. In this community-based sample, young children's knowledge of fast food toys was associated with a greater frequency of eating at McDonald's, providing evidence in support of regulating child-directed marketing of unhealthy foods using toys.