Mortality and major complications after emergency laparotomy: A pilot study of risk prediction model development by preoperative blood-based immune parameters.

BACKGROUND: Emergency laparotomy is associated with high risk of postoperative complications and mortality. Preoperative identification of patients at high risk of adverse outcome is important. The immune response to conditions requiring emergency laparotomy is not understood in detail. The present study describes preoperative blood-based immune profiles and their potential value in surgical risk assessment. METHOD: Patients (N = 100) referred for emergency laparotomy at Hvidovre Hospital were consecutively included from 3 June 2013-11 April 2014. All patients had blood samples collected before surgery and the immune parameters c-reactive protein (CRP), Interleukin-6 (IL-6), Interleukin-10 (IL-10), interferon-γ induced protein 10 kDa (IP-10), tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α) and soluble urokinase plasminogen receptor activator (suPAR) were determined. Patients were stratified according to major postoperative complications (including death), 30- and 180-day mortality. Using logistic regression models and receiver operating characteristics curves the predictive ability of the immune parameters were estimated. RESULTS: Major complications were recorded in 45 (45.0%) of the patients, whereas 30-day and 180-day mortalities were 17 (17.0%) and 25 (25.0%), respectively. Concentrations of suPAR and TNF-α were associated with major complications while CRP, IL-6, suPAR and TNF-α were associated with mortality. Adding the combined immune parameters to a regression model including age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status significantly improved the predictive ability for major complications, 30-day mortality and 180-day mortality. CONCLUSION: In emergency laparotomy, preoperative blood-based immune parameters added predictive power to regression models and could be considered in risk prediction model development.

Prediction of Outcome After Emergency High-Risk Intra-abdominal Surgery Using the Surgical Apgar Score.

BACKGROUND: With current literature quoting mortality rates up to 45%, emergency high-risk abdominal surgery has, compared with elective surgery, a significantly greater risk of death and major complications. The Surgical Apgar Score (SAS) is predictive of outcome in elective surgery, but has never been validated exclusively in an emergency setting. METHODS: A consecutive prospective single-center cohort study of 355 adults undergoing emergency high-risk abdominal surgery between June 2013 and May 2014 is presented. The primary outcome measure was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcome measures were postoperative major complications, defined according to the Clavien-Dindo scale as well as the American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program guidelines, and intensive care unit admission. The SAS was calculated postoperatively. Cochran-Armitage test for trend was used to evaluate the incidence of both outcomes. Area under the curve was used to demonstrate the scores' discriminatory power. RESULTS: One hundred eighty-one (51.0%) patients developed minor or no complications. The overall incidence of major complications was 32.7% and the overall death rate was 16.3%. Risk of major complications, death, and intensive care unit admission increased significantly with decreasing SAS (P < .001). The score's c-statistics were 0.63. CONCLUSIONS: We have demonstrated the SAS to be significantly predictive but weakly discriminative for major complications and death among adults undergoing emergency high-risk abdominal surgery. Despite its predictive value, the SAS cannot in its current version be recommended as a standalone prognostic tool in an emergency setting.