Automated Evaluation of p16/Ki-67 Dual-Stain Cytology as a Biomarker for Detection of Anal Precancer in Men Who Have Sex With Men and Are Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus-related biomarkers such as p16/Ki-67 "dual-stain" (DS) cytology have shown promising clinical performance for anal cancer screening. Here, we assessed the performance of automated evaluation of DS cytology (automated DS) to detect anal precancer in men who have sex with men (MSM) and are living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 320 MSM with HIV undergoing anal cancer screening and high-resolution anoscopy (HRA) in 2009-2010. We evaluated the performance of automated DS based on a deep-learning classifier compared to manual evaluation of DS cytology (manual DS) to detect anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or 3 (AIN2+) and grade 3 (AIN3). We evaluated different DS-positive cell thresholds quantified by the automated approach and modeled performance compared with other screening strategies in a hypothetical population of MSM with HIV. RESULTS: Compared with manual DS, automated DS had significantly higher specificity (50.9% vs 42.2%; P < .001) and similar sensitivity (93.2% vs 92.1%) for detection of AIN2+. Human papillomavirus testing with automated DS triage was significantly more specific than automated DS alone (56.5% vs 50.9%; P < .001), with the same sensitivity (93.2%). In a modeled analysis assuming a 20% AIN2+ prevalence, automated DS detected more precancers than manual DS and anal cytology (186, 184, and 162, respectively) and had the lowest HRA referral rate per AIN2+ case detected (3.1, 3.5, and 3.3, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with manual DS, automated DS detects the same number of precancers, with a lower HRA referral rate.

Accuracy and Efficiency of Deep-Learning-Based Automation of Dual Stain Cytology in Cervical Cancer Screening.

BACKGROUND: With the advent of primary human papillomavirus testing followed by cytology for cervical cancer screening, visual interpretation of cytology slides remains the last subjective analysis step and suffers from low sensitivity and reproducibility. METHODS: We developed a cloud-based whole-slide imaging platform with a deep-learning classifier for p16/Ki-67 dual-stained (DS) slides trained on biopsy-based gold standards. We compared it with conventional Pap and manual DS in 3 epidemiological studies of cervical and anal precancers from Kaiser Permanente Northern California and the University of Oklahoma comprising 4253 patients. All statistical tests were 2-sided. RESULTS: In independent validation at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, artificial intelligence (AI)-based DS had lower positivity than cytology (P < .001) and manual DS (P < .001) with equal sensitivity and substantially higher specificity compared with both Pap (P < .001) and manual DS (P < .001), respectively. Compared with Pap, AI-based DS reduced referral to colposcopy by one-third (41.9% vs 60.1%, P < .001). At a higher cutoff, AI-based DS had similar performance to high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions cytology, indicating a risk high enough to allow for immediate treatment. The classifier was robust, showing comparable performance in 2 cytology systems and in anal cytology. CONCLUSIONS: Automated DS evaluation removes the remaining subjective component from cervical cancer screening and delivers consistent quality for providers and patients. Moving from Pap to automated DS substantially reduces the number of colposcopies and also achieves excellent performance in a simulated fully vaccinated population. Through cloud-based implementation, this approach is globally accessible. Our results demonstrate that AI not only provides automation and objectivity but also delivers a substantial benefit for women by reduction of unnecessary colposcopies.

Clinical Evaluation of Human Papillomavirus Screening With p16/Ki-67 Dual Stain Triage in a Large Organized Cervical Cancer Screening Program.

Importance: As cervical cancer screening transitions from Papanicolaou cytologic screening to primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing worldwide, effective triage tests are needed to decide who among the HPV-positive women should receive further diagnostic evaluation to avoid unnecessary colposcopies and biopsies. Objective: To evaluate the performance of the p16/Ki-67 dual stain (DS) and HPV16/18 genotyping for the triage of HPV-positive women. Design, Setting, and Participants: A prospective observational study was conducted within the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California of 3225 HPV-positive women undergoing HPV and Papanicolaou cytologic testing with a valid DS result from September 16 to October 31, 2015, with follow-up through December 31, 2018. Exposures: Human papillomavirus screening with partial genotyping and cytologic triage compared with DS triage. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or more severe (CIN3+) and grade 2 or more severe (CIN2+), diagnosed within 3 years after sample collection. Results: A total of 3225 women (mean [SD] age, 37.9 [11.3] years) participated in the study. For triage of HPV-positive women with partial genotyping, DS showed better risk stratification for CIN3+ than did Papanicolaou cytologic testing, with women with positive DS results having a higher risk than women with positive Papanicolaou test results for CIN3+ (218 of 1818 [12.0%; 95% CI, 10.5%-13.5%] vs 219 of 2128 [10.3%; 95% CI, 9.0%-11.6%]; P = .005). Similarly, DS showed better risk stratification for CIN3+ compared with Papanicolaou cytologic testing in HPV-positive women, irrespective of genotyping. The greatest reassurance against CIN3+ was observed in HPV16/18-negative women with negative DS results, with a risk low enough to extend retesting intervals. Dual stain triage strategies required substantially fewer colposcopies per detection of CIN3+ compared with Papanicolaou cytologic testing, with a 32.1% (859 of 2677) reduction of colposcopies compared with the currently recommended triage strategy of HPV screening with Papanicolaou cytologic testing. Results for CIN2+ were very similar. Conclusions and Relevance: Triage of HPV-positive women with DS was superior to Papanicolaou cytologic testing in this study, demonstrating equal immediate detection of precancerous lesions and substantially reduced referral to colposcopy. These findings suggest that DS can safely replace Papanicolaou cytologic testing as a triage strategy for primary HPV screening, and that retesting intervals in HPV16/18-negative women with negative DS results can be safely extended to 3 years.

5-Year Prospective Evaluation of Cytology, Human Papillomavirus Testing, and Biomarkers for Detection of Anal Precancer in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Positive Men Who Have Sex With Men.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV)-related biomarkers have shown good cross-sectional performance for anal precancer detection in human immunodeficiency virus-positive (HIV+) men who have sex with men (MSM). However, the long-term performance and risk stratification of these biomarkers are unknown. Here, we prospectively evaluated high-risk (HR) HPV DNA, HPV16/18 genotyping, HPV E6/E7 messenger RNA (mRNA), and p16/Ki-67 dual stain in a population of HIV+ MSM. METHODS: We enrolled 363 HIV+ MSM between 2009-2010, with passive follow-up through 2015. All had anal cytology and a high-resolution anoscopy at baseline. For each biomarker, we calculated the baseline sensitivity and specificity for a combined endpoint of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) and anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or more severe diagnoses (HSIL/AIN2+), and we estimated the 2- and 5-year cumulative risks of HSIL/AIN2+ using logistic and Cox regression models. RESULTS: There were 129 men diagnosed with HSIL/AIN2+ during the study. HR-HPV testing had the highest positivity and sensitivity of all assays, but the lowest specificity. HPV16/18 and HPV E6/E7 mRNA had high specificity, but lower sensitivity. The 2- and 5-year risks of HSIL/AIN2+ were highest for those testing HPV16/18- or HPV E6/E7 mRNA-positive, followed by those testing dual stain-positive. Those testing HR-HPV- or dual stain-negative had the lowest 2- and 5-year risks of HSIL/AIN2+. CONCLUSIONS: HPV-related biomarkers provide long-term risk stratification for anal precancers. HR-HPV- and dual stain-negativity indicate a low risk of HSIL/AIN2+ for at least 2 years, compared with negative anal cytology; however, the high positivity of HR-HPV in HIV+ MSM may limit its utility for surveillance and management in this population.

Five-Year Risk of Cervical Precancer Following p16/Ki-67 Dual-Stain Triage of HPV-Positive Women.

Importance: As cervical cancer screening transitions to primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing, effective triage and management of HPV-positive women is critical to avoid unnecessary colposcopy referral and associated harms while maintaining high sensitivity for cervical precancer. Triage with p16/Ki-67 dual-stain (DS) testing has shown high sensitivity and specificity for detection of cervical precancers; however, longitudinal studies are needed to determine the long-term risk of precancer following a negative DS result. Objective: To evaluate the longitudinal performance of p16/Ki-67 DS triage for detection of cervical precancer in HPV-positive women over 5 years of follow-up in the context of clinical management thresholds. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective cohort study of HPV-positive women 30 years or older undergoing routine cervical cancer screening in 2012 with HPV and Papanicolaou (hereinafter "cytology") co-testing within the Kaiser Permanente Northern California health care system. Follow-up of medical records was conducted through 2017. Exposures: All p16/Ki-67 DS testing was performed on residual SurePath material, and slides were evaluated for p16/Ki-67 positivity. Main Outcomes and Measures: Histological end points were ascertained from the clinical database through 2017. We estimated 5-year cumulative risks of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades of 2 or worse (≥CIN2) or grades 3 or worse (≥CIN3) by baseline DS and cytology at yearly intervals using Logistic Weibull models. Risks were compared with clinical management thresholds for colposcopy referral and a 1-year return interval. Results: Among the 1549 HPV-positive women in this study, the mean age at enrollment was 42.2 years, and the median follow-up time was 3.7 years (range, 0.2-5.4 years). Positive DS results were associated with significantly higher cumulative 5-year risks of ≥CIN2 compared with abnormal cytology (31.0%; 95% CI, 27.2%-35.3% vs 25.0%; 95% CI, 21.7%-28.7%; P = .03). Women with DS-negative findings had significantly lower 5-year risks of ≥CIN2 compared with women with normal cytology (8.5%; 95% CI, 6.5%-11.1% vs 12.3%; 95% CI, 9.8%-15.4%; P = .04). In DS-negative women, the risks of both ≥CIN2 and ≥CIN3 remained below the colposcopy referral threshold for all 5 years, crossing the 1-year return threshold at 3 years. Conclusions and Relevance: Triage with p16/Ki-67 DS provides better long-term risk stratification than cytology over 5 years. The low risk of cervical precancer in p16/Ki-67 DS-negative women permits safe extension of follow-up intervals for 3 years.

p16/Ki-67 Dual Stain Cytology for Detection of Cervical Precancer in HPV-Positive Women.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV)-based cervical cancer screening requires triage markers to decide who should be referred to colposcopy. p16/Ki-67 dual stain cytology has been proposed as a biomarker for cervical precancers. We evaluated the dual stain in a large population of HPV-positive women. METHODS: One thousand five hundred and nine HPV-positive women screened with HPV/cytology cotesting at Kaiser Permanente California were enrolled into a prospective observational study in 2012. Dual stain cytology was performed on residual Surepath material, and slides were evaluated for dual stain-positive cells. Disease endpoints were ascertained from the clinical database at KPNC. We evaluated the clinical performance of the assay among all HPV-positive women and among HPV-positive, cytology-negative women. We used internal benchmarks for clinical management to evaluate the clinical relevance of the dual stain assay. We evaluated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of the dual stain compared with Pap cytology. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: The dual stain had lower positivity (45.9%) compared with cytology at an ASC-US threshold (53.4%). For detection of CIN2+, the dual stain had similar sensitivity (83.4% vs 76.6%, P = .1), and statistically higher specificity (58.9% vs 49.6%, P < .001), PPV (21.0% vs 16.6%, P < .001), and NPV (96.4% vs 94.2%, P = .01) compared with cytology. Similar patterns were observed for CIN3+. Women with a positive test had high enough risk for referral to colposcopy, while the risk for women with negative tests was below a one-year return threshold based on current US management guidelines. CONCLUSION: Dual stain cytology showed good risk stratification for all HPV-positive women and for HPV-positive women with normal cytology. Additional follow-up is needed to determine how long dual stain negative women remain at low risk of precancer.

Interobserver reproducibility and accuracy of p16/Ki-67 dual-stain cytology in cervical cancer screening.

BACKGROUND: Dual-stain cytology for p16 and Ki-67 has been proposed as a biomarker in cervical cancer screening. The authors evaluated the reproducibility and accuracy of dual-stain cytology among 10 newly trained evaluators. METHODS: In total, 480 p16/Ki-67-stained slides from human papillomavirus-positive women were evaluated in masked fashion by 10 evaluators. None of the evaluators had previous experience with p16 or p16/Ki-67 cytology. All participants underwent p16/Ki-67 training and subsequent proficiency testing. Reproducibility of dual-stain cytology was measured using the percentage agreement, individual and aggregate κ values, as well as McNemar statistics. Clinical performance for the detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or greater (CIN2+) was evaluated for each individual evaluator and for all evaluators combined compared with the reference evaluation by a cytotechnologist who had extensive experience with dual-stain cytology. RESULTS: The percentage agreement of individual evaluators with the reference evaluation ranged from 83% to 91%, and the κ values ranged from 0.65 to 0.81. The combined κ value was 0.71 for all evaluators and 0.73 for cytotechnologists. The average sensitivity and specificity for the detection of CIN2+ among novice evaluators was 82% and 64%, respectively; whereas the reference evaluation had 84% sensitivity and 63% specificity, respectively. Agreement on dual-stain positivity increased with greater numbers of p16/Ki-67-positive cells on the slides. CONCLUSIONS: Good to excellent reproducibility of p16/Ki-67 dual-stain cytology was observed with almost identical clinical performance of novice evaluators compared with reference evaluations. The current findings suggest that p16/Ki-67 dual-stain evaluation can be implemented in routine cytology practice with limited training.

Analytic and clinical performance of cobas HPV testing in anal specimens from HIV-positive men who have sex with men.

Anal human papillomavirus (HPV) infections are common, and the incidence of anal cancer is high in HIV-infected men who have sex with men (MSM). To evaluate the performance of HPV assays in anal samples, we compared the cobas HPV test (cobas) to the Roche Linear Array HPV genotyping assay (LA) and cytology in HIV-infected MSM. Cytology and cobas and LA HPV testing were conducted for 342 subjects. We calculated agreement between the HPV assays and the clinical performance of HPV testing and HPV genotyping alone and in combination with anal cytology. We observed high agreement between cobas and LA, with cobas more likely than LA to show positive results for HPV16, HPV18, and other carcinogenic types. Specimens testing positive in cobas but not in LA were more likely to be positive for other markers of HPV-related disease compared to those testing negative in both assays, suggesting that at least some of these were true positives for HPV. cobas and LA showed high sensitivities but low specificities for the detection of anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2/3 (AIN2/3) in this population (100% sensitivity and 26% specificity for cobas versus 98.4% sensitivity and 28.9% specificity for LA). A combination of anal cytology and HPV genotyping provided the highest accuracy for detecting anal precancer. A higher HPV load was associated with a higher risk of AIN2/3 with HPV16 (P(trend) < 0.001), HPV18 (P(trend) = 0.07), and other carcinogenic types (P(trend) < 0.001). We demonstrate that cobas can be used for HPV detection in anal cytology specimens. Additional tests are necessary to identify men at the highest risk of anal cancer among those infected with high-risk HPV.

Risk factors for anal HPV infection and anal precancer in HIV-infected men who have sex with men.

BACKGROUND: Carcinogenic human papillomaviruses (HPVs) cause a large proportion of anal cancers. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected men who have sex with men (MSM) are at increased risk of HPV infection and anal cancer compared with HIV-negative men. We evaluated risk factors for HPV infection and anal precancer in a population of HIV-infected MSM. METHODS: Our study included 305 MSM at an HIV/AIDS clinic in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California Health Maintenance Organization. Logistic regression was used to estimate associations of risk factors comparing men without anal HPV infection; men with anal HPV infection, but no precancer; and men with anal precancer. RESULTS: Low CD4 count (<350 cells/mm(3)) and previous chlamydia infection were associated with an increased risk of carcinogenic HPV infection (odds ratio [OR], 3.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.28-10.40 and OR, 4.24; 95% CI, 1.16-15.51, respectively). History of smoking (OR, 2.71 95% CI, 1.43-5.14), duration, recency, and dose of smoking increased the risk of anal precancer among carcinogenic HPV-positive men but had no association with HPV infection. CONCLUSIONS: We found distinct risk factors for anal HPV infection and anal precancer. Risk factors for HPV infection and anal precancer are similar to established risk factors for cervical cancer progression.

Interrater agreement of anal cytology.

BACKGROUND: The majority of anal cancers are caused by persistent infections with carcinogenic human papillomaviruses (HPV). Similar to cervical carcinogenesis, the progression from HPV infection to anal cancer occurs through precancerous lesions that can be treated to prevent invasion. In analogy to cervical cytology, anal cytology has been proposed as a screening tool for anal cancer precursors in high-risk populations. METHODS: The authors analyzed the interobserver reproducibility of anal cytology in a population of 363 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected men who have sex with men (MSM). Liquid-based cytology (LBC) specimens were collected in the anal dysplasia clinic before the performance of high-resolution anoscopy on all patients. Papanicolaou-stained LBC slides were evaluated by 2 cytopathologists, each of whom was blinded to the clinical outcome and the other pathologist's results, using the revised Bethesda terminology. RESULTS: Overall agreement between the 2 observers was 66% (kappa, 0.54; linear-weighted kappa, 0.69). Using dichotomizing cytology results (atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance [ASC-US] or worse vs less than ASC-US), the agreement increased to 86% (kappa, 0.69). An increasing likelihood of testing positive for markers associated with HPV-related transformation, p16/Ki-67, and HPV oncogene messenger RNA was observed, with increasing severity of cytology results noted both for individual cytologists and for consensus cytology interpretation (P value for trend [p(trend)] < .0001 for all). CONCLUSIONS: Moderate to good agreement was observed between 2 cytopathologists evaluating anal cytology samples collected from HIV-positive MSM. A higher severity of anal cytology was associated with biomarkers of anal precancerous lesions. Anal cytology may be used for anal cancer screening in high-risk populations, and biomarkers of HPV-related transformation can serve as quality control for anal cytology.

A comparison of human papillomavirus genotype-specific DNA and E6/E7 mRNA detection to identify anal precancer among HIV-infected men who have sex with men.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) RNA detection is reportedly more specific for the detection of anogenital precancer than HPV DNA but it is unknown whether this is due to detection of RNA or due to HPV genotype restriction. METHODS: A total of 363 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive men who have sex with men had two anal cytology samples taken and were evaluated using high-resolution anoscopy and biopsies of visible lesions. Anal specimens were tested for E6/E7 RNA for five carcinogenic HPV genotypes (HPV16, 18, 31, 33, and 45) and tested for the DNA of 13 carcinogenic HPV genotypes. RESULTS: DNA testing was more likely to be positive than RNA testing (53% vs. 48%; P = 0.02) for the same five HPV genotypes in aggregate. When restricted to five HPV genotypes targeted by the RNA test, the sensitivity to detect anal precancer was the same for DNA and RNA (81%), whereas RNA was more specific than DNA (65% vs. 58%; P = 0.007). In comparison, DNA detection of all 13 carcinogenic HPV genotypes was more sensitive (96% vs. 81%; P = 0.001) but much less specific (65% vs. 33%; P < 0.001) as compared with RNA detection of the five HPV genotypes. CONCLUSION: After controlling for HPV genotypes, RNA was only slightly more specific than DNA detection for anal precancer. IMPACT: DNA or RNA testing for a subset of the most carcinogenic HPV genotypes may be useful for distinguishing between those HPV-positive men at higher and lower risk of anal precancer and cancer.

Human papillomavirus genotype attribution and estimation of preventable fraction of anal intraepithelial neoplasia cases among HIV-infected men who have sex with men.

BACKGROUND: The prevention of human papillomavirus (HPV)-induced anal cancer in high-risk populations such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected men who have sex with men (MSM) remains an urgent priority, given rising incidence rates despite widespread antiretroviral therapy use. METHODS: HPV genotypes and anal disease prevalence, by cytology and histopathologic findings, were evaluated among 363 HIV-infected MSM. We modeled fractions of high-grade anal intraepithelial neoplasia (HGAIN) attributable to individual carcinogenic HPV genotypes and estimated the range of the proportion of HGAIN cases potentially preventable by prophylactic HPV vaccines. RESULTS: HPV16 was the most common genotype overall (26.4% of cases) and among HGAIN cases (55%). Prevalence of multiple (≥ 2) carcinogenic HPV genotypes increased from 30.9% in cases of AIN grade <1 to 76.3% in cases of AIN grade 3 (P(trend) < .001). The fractions of HGAIN cases attributable to carcinogenic HPV16/18 targeted by currently licensed bivalent and quadrivalent HPV vaccines ranged from 12% to 61.5%, and the fractions attributable to carcinogenic HPV16/18/31/33/45/52/58 targeted by an investigational nonavalent HPV vaccine ranged from 39% to 89.4%. CONCLUSIONS: Our analytical framework allows estimation of HGAIN cases attributable to individual HPV genotypes in the context of multiple concurrent HPV infections, which are very common among HIV-infected MSM. Our results suggest that licensed and investigational HPV prophylactic vaccines have the potential to prevent a substantial proportion of HGAIN cases in this population.

Human papillomavirus genotyping, human papillomavirus mRNA expression, and p16/Ki-67 cytology to detect anal cancer precursors in HIV-infected MSM.

OBJECTIVE: Anal cancer incidence is high in HIV-infected MSM. Screening for anal intraepithelial lesions and cancers is performed at specialized clinics and relies on high-resolution anoscopy (HRA) and anal cytology. Both approaches have limited reproducibility and sensitivity for detecting anal cancer precursors. We evaluated biomarkers for human papillomavirus (HPV)-related disease in a population of HIV-infected MSM. METHODS: A cross-sectional screening study with passive follow-up included 363 MSM followed at a HIV/AIDS clinic. All men had anal cytology samples taken and were evaluated using HRA and anal biopsies. Using a composite endpoint of biopsy results and cytology, we compared the performance of HPV16/18 genotyping, HPVE6/E7 mRNA expression, and p16/Ki-67 cytology to detect high-grade anal intraepithelial neoplasias (AINs). RESULTS: For all biomarkers analyzed, there was a significant trend of increasing percentage of men testing positive with increasing severity of disease (P < 0.001). HPV DNA testing had the highest sensitivity for anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 and anal intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (AIN3), followed by p16/Ki-67, HPVE6/E7 mRNA testing, and HPV16/18 genotyping. The highest Youden's index was observed for HPVE6/E7 mRNA testing, followed by HPV16/18 genotyping, p16/Ki-67 cytology, and HPV DNA testing. Increasing the threshold for positivity of p16/Ki-67 to five or more positive cells led to significantly higher specificity, but unchanged sensitivity for detecting AIN3. CONCLUSION: Molecular features of anal disease categories are similar to those of corresponding cervical lesions. Biomarkers evaluated for cervical cancer screening may be used for primary anal cancer screening or to decide who should require immediate treatment vs. expectant management.