Baseline water quality of the Gold Coast Broadwater, southern Moreton Bay (Australia).

This study establishes baseline water quality characteristics for the Gold Coast Broadwater, southern Moreton Bay (Australia) utilising routinely monitored parameters between 2016 and 2021, across 18 sites. Combined site mean concentrations of NOx-N, NH3-N and total nitrogen were 11.4 ± 33.4 µg/L, 12.7 ± 27.2 µg/L, and 169 ± 109 µg/L, respectively, whilst PO4-P and total phosphorous were 7.30 ± 5.10 µg/L and 21.7 ± 14.1 µg/L. Additionally, total suspended solids and turbidity combined site means were 6.6 ± 6.0 mg/L and 3.4 ± 2.9 NTU, respectively. During high rainfall periods nutrient concentrations increased by up to >200-, >150-, 15-, 12- and >12-fold for NOx-N, NH3-N, TN, PO4-P and TP, respectively, compared to quiescent conditions. Furthermore, TSS and NTU values increased by up to 15- and 40-fold during periods of measured rainfall compared to quiescent conditions.

Water circulation and impact on water quality in the southwest of Efate Island, Vanuatu.

In Small Island Developing States (SIDS), water pollution is not monitored or assessed frequently enough to fully understand the processes, impacts of water quality issues and what solutions are available This study investigated flushing time in Erakor lagoon and Port Vila Bay, Vanuatu using a numerical model developed in Delft3D. Microbial contamination by Escherichia coli was detected in multiple locations in the lagoon system with counts exceeding thresholds related to human health concerns. Modelling demonstrated a poor flushing time overall with a further decrease as the influence of waves and wind increased, especially in Vila Bay. Sea level rise resulted in an increase in flushing time downstream of the lagoon near the open sea, while with a decrease upstream and in Vila Bay. Based on these results, we recommend long-term continuous monitoring and identification of higher risks areas to prioritise decisions around wastewater management.

Headland bypassing timescales: Processes and driving forces.

In this paper, a natural headland bypassing is investigated in terms of its short (months to years) and long-term (years to decades) variability and its relationship with wave conditions, climate drivers and anthropogenic interventions. The research is focused on Fingal Head (New South Wales, Australia) where nine detailed topo-bathymetric surveys were undertaken between June 2018 and January 2020. To extend the analysis in time, over 30 years of satellite and aerial images were used to describe the headland bypassing variability based on the shoreline and sandbar position changes. Shoreline and sandbar positions presented moderate to strong correlation between updrift and immediate downdrift of the headland highlighting the influence of the bypassing process for the longshore transport on the study area. Results indicate that the headland bypassing around Fingal Head is governed by two distinct processes and their dominance is controlled by waves and sediment availability. The sandbar-driven bypassing scenario requires a storm wave event to trigger the sandbar system and over seven months to complete the full bypassing cycle. A quicker bypassing cycle (i.e. few months) happens when sediment leaks around the headland following a persistent low energy wave condition that largely accretes the updrift upper beach. Headland bypassing cycles occur in multiple timescales, including seasonal variability of the wave climate to interannual and decadal cycles of shoreline progradation and retreat. Shifts in the large-scale climate drivers such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation were observed to influence on changes to the low frequency of variability of the headland bypassing in the study area by affecting the predominant wave direction and updrift beach sand availability. The understanding of this intermittent nature of the headland bypassing process and particularly considering its periodicity and the related driving forces is crucial to predict future coastal hazards and develop management strategies.

Spatial Bayesian Network for predicting sea level rise induced coastal erosion in a small Pacific Island.

An integrated approach combining Bayesian Network with GIS was developed for making a probabilistic prediction of sea level rise induced coastal erosion and assessing the implications of adaptation measures. The Bayesian Network integrates extensive qualitative and quantitative information into a single probabilistic model while GIS explicitly deals with spatial data for inputting, storing, analysing and mapping. The integration of the Bayesian Network with GIS using a cell-by-cell comparison technique (aka map algebra) provides a new tool to perform the probabilistic spatial analysis. The spatial Bayesian Network was utilised for predicting coastal erosion scenarios at the case study location of Tanna Island, Vanuatu in the South Pacific. Based on the Bayesian Network model, a rate of the island shoreline change was predicted probabilistically for each shoreline segment, which was transferred into GIS for visualisation purposes. The spatial distribution of shoreline change prediction results for various sea level rise scenarios was mapped. The outcomes of this work support risk-based adaptation planning and will be further developed to enable the incorporation of high resolution coastal process models, thereby supporting localised land use planning decisions.

Opportunistic management of estuaries under climate change: A new adaptive decision-making framework and its practical application.

Ongoing coastal development and the prospect of severe climate change impacts present pressing estuary management and governance challenges. Robust approaches must recognise the intertwined social and ecological vulnerabilities of estuaries. Here, a new governance and management framework is proposed that recognises the integrated social-ecological systems of estuaries so as to permit transformative adaptation to climate change within these systems. The framework lists stakeholders and identifies estuarine uses and values. Goals are categorised that are specific to ecosystems, private property, public infrastructure, and human communities. Systematic adaptation management strategies are proposed with conceptual examples and associated governance approaches. Contrasting case studies are used to illustrate the practical application of these ideas. The framework will assist estuary managers worldwide to achieve their goals, minimise maladaptative responses, better identify competing interests, reduce stakeholder conflict and exploit opportunities for appropriate ecosystem restoration and sustainable development.