RESUMO
Test-day milk analysis has largely been used to study health and performance parameters in dairy cows. In this study, we estimated four health indicators of dairy cows using test-day data. Our purpose was to estimate (1) mastitis incidence rate, prevalence, and the probability of recovery; (2) the incidence proportion of ketosis; (3) the duration of inter-calving interval; and (4) the risk of a fresh cow being replaced, in a large cohort of dairy herds in the Piedmont region (Italy). We retrospectively analysed test day records of 261,121 lactating cows and 1315 herds during five years (2015-2020). Mastitis was defined by somatic cell count and ketosis by fat-to-protein ratio. Calving dates were used to calculate ICI and to estimate the removal of a fresh cow from the herd. Mixed-effect generalized linear models were used to adjust for unmeasured herd-level risk factors. The risk of mastitis increased by 120% with parity (Odds ratio [OR] = 2.20, confidence interval [CI]: 2.17 - 2.23), by 7% by months in milking (OR = 1.07, CI: 1.07 - 1.07), and even more if the cow was already affected during the same lactation (OR = 8.74, CI: 8.67 - 8.82). Lactose concentration on the previous test day was the best positive prognostic factor for mastitis recovery (OR = 1.12, CI: 1.08 - 1.17). Ketosis risk was the highest between 3rd and 4th lactations and itself increased the risk of having ICI longer than 440 days (OR = 1.12, CI: 1.02 - 1.22), and fresh-cow removal (OR = 1.75, CI: 1.58 - 1.93). Also, the removal of fresh cows was more likely when mastitis (OR = 1.31, CI: 1.19 - 1.45) or long ICI (OR = 1.34, CI: 1.22 - 1.48) occurred. For each health indicator, herd-level risk factors had an important role (18-56% of within-herd covariance). Our results indicate that milk analysis could be also useful for predicting mastitis, its cure rate, and ketosis. Cow-level risk factors are not enough to explain the risk of these issues. By studying a large population over a long period, this study provides an updated estimate of dairy cow health indicators in Piedmont (north-western Italy), useful for benchmarking dairy herds.
