Developing a prediction model to identify people with severe mental illness without regular contact to their GP - a study based on data from the Danish national registers.

INTRODUCTION: People with severe mental illness (SMI) face a higher risk of premature mortality due to physical morbidity compared to the general population. Establishing regular contact with a general practitioner (GP) can mitigate this risk, yet barriers to healthcare access persist. Population initiatives to overcome these barriers require efficient identification of those persons in need. OBJECTIVE: To develop a predictive model to identify persons with SMI not attending a GP regularly. METHOD: For individuals with psychotic disorder, bipolar disorder, or severe depression between 2011 and 2016 (n = 48,804), GP contacts from 2016 to 2018 were retrieved. Two logistic regression models using demographic and clinical data from Danish national registers predicted severe mental illness without GP contact. Model 1 retained significant main effect variables, while Model 2 included significant bivariate interactions. Goodness-of-fit and discriminating ability were evaluated using Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), respectively, via cross-validation. RESULTS: The simple model retained 11 main effects, while the expanded model included 13 main effects and 10 bivariate interactions after backward elimination. HL tests were non-significant for both models (p = 0.50 for the simple model and p = 0.68 for the extended model). Their respective AUC values were 0.789 and 0.790. CONCLUSION: Leveraging Danish national register data, we developed two predictive models to identify SMI individuals without GP contact. The extended model had slightly better model performance than the simple model. Our study may help to identify persons with SMI not engaging with primary care which could enhance health and treatment outcomes in this group.

Challenges in reaching patients with severe mental illness for trials in general practice-a convergent mixed methods study based on the SOFIA pilot trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients with severe mental illness (SMI) die prematurely due to undetected and inadequate treatment of somatic illnesses. The SOFIA pilot study was initiated to mend this gap in health inequity. However, reaching patients with SMI for intervention research has previously proven difficult. This study aimed to investigate the recruitment of patients with SMI for the SOFIA pilot study in 2021. METHODS: We used a mixed-method convergent design. The qualitative material comprised 20 interviews with general practitioners (GPs) and staff, during patient recruitment. The quantitative data consisted of process data on baseline characteristics, GPs reported reasons for excluding a patient, reported reasons for patients declining participation, and registered data from a Danish population of patients with SMI. We used thematic analysis in the qualitative analysis and descriptive statistics for the quantitative analysis. Pillar integration was used for integrating the material. RESULTS: Our findings show that selection bias occurred in the pilot study. We describe four main themes based on the integrated analysis that highlights selection issues: (1) poor data quality and inconsistency in defining severity definitions troubled identification and verification, (2) protecting the patient and maintaining practice efficiency, (3) being familiar with the patient was important for a successful recruitment, and (4) in hindsight, the GPs questioned whether the target population was reached. CONCLUSIONS: In the light of theories of professions and street-level bureaucracy, we find that the main drivers of the patient selection bias occurring in the SOFIA pilot study were that 1) GPs and staff mended eligibility criteria to protect certain patients and/or to minimize workload and maintain efficiency in the practice 2) the data from the GP record systems and the digital assessment tool to assist recruitment was not optimal. Interventions targeting this patient group should carefully consider the recruitment strategy with a particular focus on professionals' discretionary practices and information technology pitfalls. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The pilot trial protocol was registered on the 5th of November 2020. The registration number is NCT04618250 .

The SOFIA pilot study: assessing feasibility and fidelity of coordinated care to reduce excess mortality and increase quality of life in patients with severe mental illness in a general practice setting; a cluster-randomised pilot trial.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the feasibility and fidelity of implementing and assessing the SOFIA coordinated care program aimed at lowering mortality and increasing quality of life in patients with severe mental illness by improving somatic health care in general practice. DESIGN: A cluster-randomised, non-blinded controlled pilot trial. SETTING: General Practice in Denmark. INTERVENTION: The SOFIA coordinated care program comprised extended structured consultations carried out by the GP, group-based training of GPs and staff, and a handbook with information on signposting patients to relevant municipal, health, and social initiatives. PATIENTS: Persons aged 18 years or older with a diagnosis of psychotic, bipolar, or severe depressive disorder. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We collected quantitative data on the delivery, recruitment and retention rates of practices and patients, and response rates of questionnaires MMQ and EQ-5D-5 L. RESULTS: From November 2020 to March 2021, nine practices were enrolled and assigned in a 2:1 ratio to the intervention group (n = 6) or control group (n = 3). Intervention group practices included 64 patients and Control practices included 23. The extended consultations were delivered with a high level of fidelity in the general practices; however, thresholds for collecting outcome measures, and recruitment of practices and patients were not reached. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that delivering the coordinated care program in a fully powered trial in primary care is likely feasible. However, the recruitment methodology requires improvement to ensure sufficient recruitment and minimize selective inclusion. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The date of pilot trial protocol registration was 05/11/2020, and the registration number is NCT04618250.

The influence of childhood aspirations on the risk of developing psychotic disorders, substance use disorders, and dual diagnosis in adulthood based on the Metropolit 1953 Danish Male Birth Cohort.

The study aims to investigate the association of aspiration for future occupation, socioeconomic position, and intellectual abilities with risk of dual diagnosis, psychosis, substance use disorder (SUD) in later life, and to explore if social and intellectual disadvantage modify any effect of childhood aspirations on outcomes. The study included 7177 Danish boys born in 1953. We investigated childhood aspirations (preference regarding future occupation), socioeconomic position (paternal social group), and intellectual abilities (Härnquist intelligence score) on outcomes with dual diagnosis, psychotic disorder, or SUD in Danish registers. Combinations of variables were used for a two-way and three-way analysis (high and low levels of exposure variables). Cox regression with age as the underlying time scale was used for analysis. The separate analysis showed no associations between childhood aspirations and outcomes. Boys with low intelligence scores had an increased risk of developing psychotic disorders (aHR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1-2.1) and SUD (aHR 1.8, 95% CI 1.5-2.1) compared to high intelligence scores. The interaction analyses showed that individuals with a combination of low intelligence score, high aspirations, and/or high paternal social group might have an increased risk of developing dual diagnosis, psychotic disorders, or SUD in later life. This result should be interpreted with caution as interaction variables were not overall significant with the outcome of dual diagnosis or psychotic disorder. The findings suggest that childhood abilities and social position could be associated with the development of psychotic disorders and SUD in later life, however, further studies are needed to address the temporality of the association to gain an understanding of the underlying mechanism of the association.

Time trends in co-occurring substance use and psychiatric illness (dual diagnosis) from 2000 to 2017 - a nationwide study of Danish register data.

OBJECTIVE: This article aims to describe the time trend in number of dual diagnosis patients treated in the psychiatric system in Denmark from 2000 to 2017. METHOD: We calculated the share of patients with dual diagnosis, number of dual diagnosis contacts, number of unique individuals with dual diagnosis as well as number of new patients with dual diagnosis among patients in psychiatric treatment, i.e. among inpatients, outpatients and patients in emergency departments. In order to calculate this, we merged data from the National Patient Register (NPR), the National Registry of Alcohol Treatment, the National treatment registry for substance use, the National Prescription Registry and the Danish National Health Service register in the period from 2000 to 2017. RESULTS: We found an overall increase in patients with dual diagnosis in psychiatric treatment in Denmark from 2000 to 2017. We further detected an increase in the age and sex-standardized number of patients with dual diagnosis in treatment over time, however most markedly for outpatients. Further, inclusion of data from other sources of data than the NPR dramatically increased the number of patients that could be identified as dual diagnosis patients. Using these data, almost half of all male inpatients could be identified as dual diagnosis while the share was more than 40% for patients with schizophrenia, schizotypal and delusional disorders (F2) and patients with personality disorders (F6). CONCLUSIONS: The increase of individual diagnosis patients necessitates action at different levels. This includes improvement of preventive measures as well as improvement of treatment for this underserved group.