Prediction of treatment failure using 2010 World Health Organization Guidelines is associated with high misclassification rates and drug resistance among HIV-infected Cambodian children.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings (RLSs) is monitored clinically and immunologically, according to World Health Organization (WHO) or national guidelines. Revised WHO pediatric guidelines were published in 2010, but their ability to accurately identify virological failure is unclear. METHODS: We evaluated performance of WHO 2010 guidelines and compared them with WHO 2006 and Cambodia 2011 guidelines among children on ≥6 months of first-line ART at Angkor Hospital for Children between January 2005 and September 2010. We determined sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and accuracy using bootstrap resampling to account for multiple tests per child. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) resistance was compared between those correctly and incorrectly identified by each guideline. RESULTS: Among 457 children with 1079 viral loads (VLs), 20% had >400 copies/mL. For children with WHO stage 1/2 HIV, misclassification as failure (met CD4 failure criteria, but VL undetectable) was 64% for WHO 2006 guidelines, 33% for WHO 2010 guidelines, and 81% for Cambodia 2011 guidelines; misclassification as success (did not meet CD4 failure, but VL detectable) was 11%, 12%, and 12%, respectively. For children with WHO stage 3/4 HIV, misclassification as failure was 35% for WHO 2006 guidelines, 40% for WHO 2010 guidelines, and 43% for Cambodia 2011 guidelines; misclassification as success was 13%, 24%, and 21%, respectively. Compared with WHO 2006 guidelines, WHO 2010 guidelines significantly increased the risk of misclassification as success in stage 3/4 HIV (P < .05). The WHO 2010 guidelines failed to identify 98% of children with extensive reverse-transcriptase resistance. CONCLUSIONS: In our cohort, lack of virological monitoring would result in unacceptable treatment failure misclassification, leading to premature ART switch and resistance accumulation. Affordable virological monitoring suitable for use in RLSs is desperately needed.

High survival and treatment success sustained after two and three years of first-line ART for children in Cambodia.

BACKGROUND: Long-term outcomes of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in children remain poorly documented in resource-limited settings. The objective of this study was to assess two-and three-year survival, CD4 evolution and virological response among children on ART in a programmatic setting in Cambodia. METHODS: Children treated with first-line ART for at least 24 months were assessed with viral load testing and genotyping. We used Kaplan-Meier analysis for survival and Cox regression to identify risk factors associated with treatment failure. RESULTS: Of 1168 registered HIV-positive children, 670 (57%) started ART between January 2003 and December 2007. Survival probability was 0.93 (95% CI: 0.91-0.95) and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.88-0.93) at 24 and 36 months after ART initiation, respectively. Median CD4 gain for children aged over five years was 704 cells/mm3 at 24 months and 737 at 36 months. Median CD4 percentage gain for children under five years old was 15.2% at 24 months and 15% at 36 months. One hundred and thirty children completed at least 24 months of ART, and 138 completed 36 months: 128 out of 268 (48%) were female. Median age at ART initiation was six years.Overall, 22 children had viral loads of >1000 copies/ml (success ratio = 86% on intention-to-treat-analysis) and 21 of 21 presented mutations conferring resistance mostly to lamivudine and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. Risk factors for failure after 24 and 36 months were CD4 counts below the threshold for severe immunosupression at those months respectively. Only two out of 22 children with viral loads of >1000 copies/ml met the World Health Organization immunological criteria for failure (sensitivity = 0.1). CONCLUSIONS: Good survival, immunological restoration and viral suppression can be sustained after two to three years of ART among children in resource-constrained settings. Increased access to routine virological measurements is needed for timely diagnosis of treatment failure.