Thunderstorms Producing Sferic-Geolocated Gamma-Ray Flashes Detected by TETRA-II.

The terrestrial gamma-ray flash (TGF) and Energetic Thunderstorm Rooftop Array (TETRA-II) detected 22 X-ray/gamma-ray flash events associated with lightning between October 2015 and March 2019 across three ground-based detector locations in subtropical and tropical climates in Louisiana, Puerto Rico, and Panama. Each detector array consists of a set of bismuth germanate scintillators that record X-ray and gamma-ray bursts over the energy range 50 keV-6 MeV (million electron volts). TETRA-II events have characteristics similar to both X-ray bursts associated with lightning leaders and TGFs: sub-millisecond duration, photons up to MeV energies, and association with nearby lightning (typically within 3 km). About 20 of the 22 events are geolocated to individual lightning strokes via spatiotemporally coincident sferics. An examination of radar reflectivity and derived products related to events located within the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) monitoring region indicates that events occur within mature cells of severe and non-severe multicellular and squall line thunderstorms, with core echo tops which are at or nearing peak altitude. Events occur in both high lightning frequency thunderstorm cells and low lightning frequency cells. Events associated with high frequency cells occur within 5 min of significant lightning jumps. Among NEXRAD-monitored events, hail is present within 8 km and 5 min of all except a single low-altitude cold weather thunderstorm. An association is seen with maximum thunderstorm development, lightning jumps, and hail cells, indicating that the TETRA-II X-ray/gamma-ray events are associated with the peak storm electrification and development of electric fields necessary for the acceleration of electrons to high energies.

Using Proxy Records to Document Gulf of Mexico Tropical Cyclones from 1820-1915.

Observations of pre-1950 tropical cyclones are sparse due to observational limitations; therefore, the hurricane database HURDAT2 (1851-present) maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration may be incomplete. Here we provide additional documentation for HURDAT2 from historical United States Army fort records (1820-1915) and other archived documents for 28 landfalling tropical cyclones, 20 of which are included in HURDAT2, along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. One event that occurred in May 1863 is not currently documented in the HURDAT2 database but has been noted in other studies. We identify seven tropical cyclones that occurred before 1851, three of which are potential tropical cyclones. We corroborate the pre-HURDAT2 storms with a tree-ring reconstruction of hurricane impacts from the Florida Keys (1707-2009). Using this information, we suggest landfall locations for the July 1822 hurricane just west of Mobile, Alabama and 1831 hurricane near Last Island, Louisiana on 18 August. Furthermore, we model the probable track of the August 1831 hurricane using the weighted average distance grid method that incorporates historical tropical cyclone tracks to supplement report locations.

Hurricane risk variability along the Gulf of Mexico coastline.

Hurricane risk characteristics are examined across the U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline using a hexagonal tessellation. Using an extreme value model, parameters are collected representing the rate or λ (frequency), the scale or σ (range), and the shape or ξ (intensity) of the extreme wind distribution. These latent parameters and the 30-year return level are visualized across the grid. The greatest 30-year return levels are located toward the center of the Gulf of Mexico, and for inland locations, along the borders of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Using a geographically weighted regression model, the relationship of these parameters to sea surface temperature (SST) is found to assess sensitivity to change. It is shown that as SSTs increase near the coast, the frequency of hurricanes in these grids decrease significantly. This reinforces the importance of SST in areas of likely tropical cyclogenesis in determining the number of hurricanes near the coast, along with SSTs along the lifespan of the storm, rather than simply local SST. The range of hurricane wind speeds experienced near Florida is shown to increase with increasing SSTs (insignificant), suggesting that increased temperatures may allow hurricanes to maintain their strength as they pass over the Florida peninsula. The modifiable areal unit problem is assessed using multiple grid sizes. Moran's I and the local statistic G are calculated to examine spatial autocorrelation in the parameters. This research opens up future questions regarding rapid intensification and decay close to the coast and the relationship to changing SSTs.