RESUMO
SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are effective at limiting disease severity, but effectiveness is lower among patients with cancer or immunosuppression. Effectiveness wanes with time and varies by vaccine type. Moreover, vaccines are based on the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 spike-protein that emerging variants may evade. Here, we describe a mechanistic mathematical model for vaccination-induced immunity, validate it with available clinical data, and predict vaccine effectiveness for varied vaccine platforms in the setting of variants with ability to escape immunity, increased virulence, or enhanced transmissibility. We further account for concurrent cancer or underlying immunosuppression. The model confirms enhanced immunogenicity following booster vaccination in immunosuppressed patients but predicts at least one more booster dose is required for these individuals to maintain protection. We further studied the impact of variants on immunosuppressed individuals as a function of the interval between multiple booster doses. Our model is useful for planning future vaccinations, and tailoring strategies to risk groups. Significance StatementCurrent SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are effective at preventing COVID-19 or limiting disease severity in healthy individuals, but effectiveness is lower among patients with cancer or immunosuppression. Here, we address the need for predictions of vaccine effectiveness over time by building on our mathematical framework to account for vaccination-induced immunity. A booster dose of both mRNA vaccines can induce a robust enhancement of both antibody levels and numbers of pertinent types of adaptive immune cells, which is predicted to provide sufficient protection for more than one year in healthy patients. However, our model suggests that for immunosuppressed people or patients with cancer receiving an immunosuppressive treatment, the booster effect may wane, and perhaps could be considered on a more frequent basis.
