The neglected season: Warmer autumns counteract harsher winters and promote population growth in Arctic reindeer.

Arctic ungulates are experiencing the most rapid climate warming on Earth. While concerns have been raised that more frequent icing events may cause die-offs, and earlier springs may generate a trophic mismatch in phenology, the effects of warming autumns have been largely neglected. We used 25 years of individual-based data from a growing population of wild Svalbard reindeer, to test how warmer autumns enhance population growth. Delayed plant senescence had no effect, but a six-week delay in snow-onset (the observed data range) was estimated to increase late winter body mass by 10%. Because average late winter body mass explains 90% of the variation in population growth rates, such a delay in winter-onset would enable a population growth of r = 0.20, sufficient to counteract all but the most extreme icing events. This study provides novel mechanistic insights into the consequences of climate change for Arctic herbivores, highlighting the positive impact of warming autumns on population viability, offsetting the impacts of harsher winters. Thus, the future for Arctic herbivores facing climate change may be brighter than the prevailing view.

The standard metabolic rate of a land snail (Cepaea hortensis) is a repeatable trait and influences winter survival.

Phenotypic selection on physiological parameters is an underrepresented topic in studies of evolutionary biology. There is especially a lack of studies involving invertebrate organisms. We studied the repeatability of the standard metabolic rate (SMR) and the effect of individual variation in SMR on the subsequent winter survival in a terrestrial shell-bearing mollusc, the white-lipped snail (Cepaea hortensis) in mid-Norway. SMR was measured twice during the autumn and - after an experimental overwintering at controlled conditions - twice during the following spring. We found a significant repeatability of SMR over all three time periods tested, with a clear effect of time, with a high repeatability of 0.56 over 4 days during spring, 0.44 over 12 days in the autumn and 0.17 over 194 days from autumn to spring. That SMR is a repeatable physiological trait across the winter period during which a possible selection might occur, suggests that SMR could be a potential target of natural selection. We indeed found that the autumn SMR significantly influenced the probability of survival during the winter period, with a combination of a positive linear (P = .011) and a quadratic stabilizing (P = .001) effect on SMR. Our results hence support the view that metabolic rate is an important physiological component influencing the fitness of an organism.