Modelling control strategies for pneumococcal meningitis outbreaks in the African meningitis belt.

INTRODUCTION: Pneumococcal meningitis outbreaks occur sporadically in the African meningitis belt. Outbreak control guidelines and interventions are well established for meningococcal but not pneumococcal meningitis. Mathematical modelling is a useful tool for assessing the potential impact of different pneumococcal control strategies. This work aimed to estimate the impact of reactive vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) had it been implemented in past African meningitis belt outbreaks and assess their efficiency relative to existing routine infant immunisation with PCV. METHODS & RESULTS: Using recent pneumococcal meningitis outbreaks in Burkina Faso, Chad, and Ghana as case studies, we investigated the potential impact of reactive vaccination. We calculated the number needed to vaccinate to avert one case (NNV) in each outbreak setting and over all outbreaks and compared this to the NNV for existing routine infant vaccination. We extended previous analyses of reactive vaccination by considering longer-term protection in vaccinees over five years, incorporating a proxy for indirect effects. We found that implementing reactive vaccination in previous pneumococcal meningitis outbreaks could have averted up to 10-20 % of outbreak cases, with the biggest potential impact in Brong Ahafo, Ghana (2015-2016) and Goundi, Chad (2009). The NNV, and hence the value of reactive vaccination, varied greatly. 'Large' (80 + cumulative modelled cases per 100,000 population) and/or 'prolonged' (exceeding a response threshold of 10 suspected cases per 100,000 per week for four weeks or more) outbreaks had NNV estimates under 10,000. For routine infant vaccination with PCV, the estimated NNV ranged from 3,100-5,600 in Burkina Faso and 1,500-2,600 in Ghana. IMPLICATIONS: This analysis provides evidence to inform the design of pneumococcal meningitis outbreak response guidelines. Countries should consider reactive vaccination in each outbreak event, together with maintaining routine infant vaccination as the primary intervention to reduce pneumococcal disease burden and outbreak risk.

Contribution of vaccination to improved survival and health: modelling 50 years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization.

BACKGROUND: WHO, as requested by its member states, launched the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) in 1974 to make life-saving vaccines available to all globally. To mark the 50-year anniversary of EPI, we sought to quantify the public health impact of vaccination globally since the programme's inception. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used a suite of mathematical and statistical models to estimate the global and regional public health impact of 50 years of vaccination against 14 pathogens in EPI. For the modelled pathogens, we considered coverage of all routine and supplementary vaccines delivered since 1974 and estimated the mortality and morbidity averted for each age cohort relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. We then used these modelled outcomes to estimate the contribution of vaccination to globally declining infant and child mortality rates over this period. FINDINGS: Since 1974, vaccination has averted 154 million deaths, including 146 million among children younger than 5 years of whom 101 million were infants younger than 1 year. For every death averted, 66 years of full health were gained on average, translating to 10·2 billion years of full health gained. We estimate that vaccination has accounted for 40% of the observed decline in global infant mortality, 52% in the African region. In 2024, a child younger than 10 years is 40% more likely to survive to their next birthday relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. Increased survival probability is observed even well into late adulthood. INTERPRETATION: Since 1974 substantial gains in childhood survival have occurred in every global region. We estimate that EPI has provided the single greatest contribution to improved infant survival over the past 50 years. In the context of strengthening primary health care, our results show that equitable universal access to immunisation remains crucial to sustain health gains and continue to save future lives from preventable infectious mortality. FUNDING: WHO.

The impact and cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal immunisation strategies for the elderly in England.

Pneumococcal disease, presenting as invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) or community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is an important cause of illness and hospitalisation in the elderly. To reduce pneumococcal burden, since 2003, 65-year-olds in England have been offered a 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23). This study compares the impact and cost-effectiveness (CE) of vaccination with the existing PPV23 vaccine to the new 15-and 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV15 and PCV20), targeting adults aged 65 or 75 years old. We developed a static Markov model for immunisation against pneumococcal disease, capturing different vaccine effectiveness and immunity waning assumptions, projecting the number of IPD/CAP cases averted over the thirty years following vaccination. Using an economic model and probabilistic sensitivity analysis we evaluated the CE of the different immunisation strategies at current vaccine list prices and the willingness-to-pay at a median threshold of £20,000/QALY and an uncertainty threshold of 90% of simulations below £30,000/QALY. PCV20 averted more IPD and CAP cases than PCV15 or PPV23 over the thirty years following vaccination: 353(360), 145(159) and 150(174) IPD and 581(673), 259(485) and 212(235) CAP cases at a vaccination age of 65(75) under base vaccine effectiveness assumptions. At the listed prices of PCV20 and PPV23 vaccines as of May 2023, both vaccines were cost-effective when vaccinating 65- or 75-year-olds with an ICER threshold of £20,000 per QALY. To achieve the same cost-effectiveness as PPV23, the additional cost of PCV20 should be less than £44(£91) at an ICER threshold of £20,000/QALY (£30,000/QALY) if vaccination age is 65 (or £54(£103) if vaccination age is increased to 75). We showed that both PPV23 and PCV20 were likely to be cost-effective. PCV20 was likely to avert more cases of pneumococcal disease in elderly adults in England than the current PPV23 vaccine, given input assumptions of a higher vaccine effectiveness and slower waning for PCV20.

Estimating the health effects of COVID-19-related immunisation disruptions in 112 countries during 2020-30: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: There have been declines in global immunisation coverage due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Recovery has begun but is geographically variable. This disruption has led to under-immunised cohorts and interrupted progress in reducing vaccine-preventable disease burden. There have, so far, been few studies of the effects of coverage disruption on vaccine effects. We aimed to quantify the effects of vaccine-coverage disruption on routine and campaign immunisation services, identify cohorts and regions that could particularly benefit from catch-up activities, and establish if losses in effect could be recovered. METHODS: For this modelling study, we used modelling groups from the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium from 112 low-income and middle-income countries to estimate vaccine effect for 14 pathogens. One set of modelling estimates used vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2021 for a subset of vaccine-preventable, outbreak-prone or priority diseases (ie, measles, rubella, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus [HPV], meningitis A, and yellow fever) to examine mitigation measures, hereafter referred to as recovery runs. The second set of estimates were conducted with vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2020, used to calculate effect ratios (ie, the burden averted per dose) for all 14 included vaccines and diseases, hereafter referred to as full runs. Both runs were modelled from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2100. Countries were included if they were in the Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance portfolio; had notable burden; or had notable strategic vaccination activities. These countries represented the majority of global vaccine-preventable disease burden. Vaccine coverage was informed by historical estimates from WHO-UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage and the immunisation repository of WHO for data up to and including 2021. From 2022 onwards, we estimated coverage on the basis of guidance about campaign frequency, non-linear assumptions about the recovery of routine immunisation to pre-disruption magnitude, and 2030 endpoints informed by the WHO Immunization Agenda 2030 aims and expert consultation. We examined three main scenarios: no disruption, baseline recovery, and baseline recovery and catch-up. FINDINGS: We estimated that disruption to measles, rubella, HPV, hepatitis B, meningitis A, and yellow fever vaccination could lead to 49 119 additional deaths (95% credible interval [CrI] 17 248-134 941) during calendar years 2020-30, largely due to measles. For years of vaccination 2020-30 for all 14 pathogens, disruption could lead to a 2·66% (95% CrI 2·52-2·81) reduction in long-term effect from 37 378 194 deaths averted (34 450 249-40 241 202) to 36 410 559 deaths averted (33 515 397-39 241 799). We estimated that catch-up activities could avert 78·9% (40·4-151·4) of excess deaths between calendar years 2023 and 2030 (ie, 18 900 [7037-60 223] of 25 356 [9859-75 073]). INTERPRETATION: Our results highlight the importance of the timing of catch-up activities, considering estimated burden to improve vaccine coverage in affected cohorts. We estimated that mitigation measures for measles and yellow fever were particularly effective at reducing excess burden in the short term. Additionally, the high long-term effect of HPV vaccine as an important cervical-cancer prevention tool warrants continued immunisation efforts after disruption. FUNDING: The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium, funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATIONS: For the Arabic, Chinese, French, Portguese and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Procedural outcomes in children with mild type 1 von Willebrand disease.

Background: In patients with mild type 1 von Willebrand disease (VWD), treatment guidelines suggest individualization of surgical management. However, these conditional recommendations are based on very low-certainty evidence due to limited data on surgical outcomes in this population. Objectives: To characterize procedural bleeding prophylaxis strategies and outcomes in children with mild type 1 VWD. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study that included patients aged between 0 and 21 years with mild type 1 VWD (defined as von Willebrand factor antigen and/or an activity of 30-50 IU/dL) who underwent a procedure from July 1, 2017, to July 1, 2022. Demographic, surgical, medication, and bleeding data were collected by manual chart review. Results: A total of 161 procedures were performed in 108 patients. The population was primarily female (75%), White (77.8%), and non-Hispanic (79.6%). Median age was 15.8 years (IQR, 8.2-17.6). Fifty-nine surgeries were classified as major, 66 as minor, and 36 as dental. For most procedures, patients received only antifibrinolytics for bleeding prophylaxis (n = 128, 79.5%); desmopressin was used in 17 (10.6%) procedures, and von Willebrand factor concentrate was used in 12 (7.5%) procedures. Bleeding complications occurred in 8 (5.0%) procedures: these included 1 major, 4 clinically relevant nonmajor, and 3 minor bleeding events. No patient required blood transfusion or an additional procedure to achieve hemostasis. Most bleeding complications were seen following intrauterine device (IUD) placement (5/8). Nearly 30% of patients who underwent IUD placement reported bleeding. Conclusion: Pediatric patients with mild type 1 VWD can safely undergo procedures using a tailored approach. Bleeding complications were uncommon, with the majority following IUD placement.

A Practical Guide to Full Value of Vaccine Assessments.

Articulating the wide range of health, social and economic benefits that vaccines offer may help to overcome obstacles in the vaccine development pipeline. A framework to guide the assessment and communication of the value of a vaccine-the Full Value of Vaccine Assessment (FVVA)-has been developed by the WHO. The FVVA framework offers a holistic assessment of the value of vaccines, providing a synthesis of evidence to inform the public health need of a vaccine, describing the supply and demand aspects, its market and its impact from a health, financial and economic perspective. This paper provides a practical guide to how FVVAs are developed and used to support investment in vaccines, ultimately leading to sustained implementation in countries. The FVVA includes a range of elements that can be broadly categorised as synthesis, vaccine development narrative and defining vaccine impact and value. Depending on the features of the disease/vaccine in question, different elements may be emphasised; however, a standardised set of elements is recommended for each FVVA. The FVVA should be developed by an expert group who represent a range of stakeholders, perspectives and geographies and ensure a fair, coherent and evidence-based assessment of vaccine value.

Pneumococcal serotypes and risk factors in adult community-acquired pneumonia 2018-20; a multicentre UK cohort study.

Background: Higher-valency pneumococcal vaccines are anticipated. We aimed to describe serotype distribution and risk factors for vaccine-serotype community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in the two years pre-SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study of adults hospitalised with CAP at three UK sites between 2018 and 2020. Pneumococcal serotypes were identified using a 24-valent urinary-antigen assay and blood cultures. Risk factors associated with vaccine-type pneumonia caused by serotypes in the 13-, 15- and 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV13, PCV15, PCV20) and 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) were determined from multivariable analysis. Findings: Of 1921 adults hospitalised with CAP, 781 (40.7%, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 38.5-42.9%) had pneumococcal pneumonia. A single PCV13-serotype was detected in 242 (31.0%, 95% CI 27.8-34.3%) pneumococcal CAP patients, mostly serotype 3 (171/242, 70.7%, 95% CI 64.5-76.0%). The additional two PCV15-serotypes were detected in 31 patients (4%, 95% CI 2.8-5.6%), and PCV20-non13-serotypes in 192 (24.6%), with serotype 8 most prevalent (123/192, 64.1%, 95% CI 57.1-70.5%). Compared to PCV13-serotype CAP, people with PCV20-non13 CAP were younger (median age 62 versus 72 years, p < 0.001) and less likely to be male (44% versus 61%, p = 0.01). PPV23-non13-serotypes were found in 252 (32.3%, 95% CI 29.1-35.6%) pneumococcal CAP patients. Interpretation: Despite mature infant pneumococcal programmes, the burden of PCV13-serotype pneumonia remains high in older adults, mainly due to serotype 3. PCV20-non13-serotype pneumonia is more likely in younger people with fewer pneumococcal risk factors. Funding: Unrestricted investigator-initiated research grant from Pfizer, United Kingdom; support from National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre, Nottingham.

Vaccine value profile for Group B streptococcus.

Group B streptococcus (GBS) is a major global cause of neonatal meningitis, sepsis and pneumonia, with an estimated 91,000 infant deaths per year and an additional 46,000 stillbirths. GBS infection in pregnancy is also associated with adverse maternal outcomes and preterm births. As such, the World Health Organization (WHO) prioritised the development of a GBS vaccine suitable for use in pregnant women and use in LMICs, where the burden of disease is highest. Several GBS vaccines are in clinical development. The WHO Defeating Meningitis by 2030 has set a target of 2026 for vaccine licensure. This 'Vaccine Value Profile' (VVP) for GBS is intended to provide a high-level, holistic assessment of the information and data that are currently available to inform the potential public health, economic and societal value of pipeline vaccines and vaccine-like products. This VVP was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, non-profit organizations, public private partnerships and multi-lateral organizations, and in collaboration with stakeholders from the WHO regions of AFR, AMR, EUR, WPR. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the GBS VVP and collectively aimed to identify current research and knowledge gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information.

Using Integrated Bite Case Management to estimate the burden of rabies and evaluate surveillance in Oriental Mindoro, Philippines.

Background: Despite national elimination efforts, dog-mediated rabies remains endemic in the Philippines. Free provision of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) through the widespread establishment of Animal Bite Treatment Centers (ABTCs) has improved accessibility; however, the resulting upsurge in PEP demand is not sustainable, and human rabies deaths continue. Dog vaccination coverage also remains inadequate, and it is unclear whether surveillance is effective. Methods: Here, we used Integrated Bite Case Management (IBCM) to collect enhanced rabies surveillance data in Oriental Mindoro Province over a 3-year period (2020-2022). Adapting a probabilistic decision tree model, we estimated the burden of rabies, evaluated surveillance performance, and analyzed the costs and benefits of current rabies prevention and control practices in the province. Results: The incidence of bite patients receiving PEP was high in Oriental Mindoro Province (1,246/100,000 persons/year), though < 3% of presenting patients were deemed high-risk for rabies exposure (24/100,000 persons/year). Using a decision tree model, we estimated that around 73.8% of probable rabies-exposed patients sought PEP (95% Prediction Interval, PrI: 59.4%-81.1%) and that routine surveillance confirmed < 2% of circulating animal rabies cases, whereas IBCM resulted in a nearly fourfold increase in case detection. Furthermore, we estimated that an average of 560 (95% PrI 217-1,090) dogs may develop rabies annually in the province, equating to 3-5 cases per 1,000 dogs per year. On average, 20 to 43 human deaths were averted by PEP each year in Oriental Mindoro at an annual cost of $582,110 USD (i.e., $51.44 USD per person) or $20,190 USD (95% PrI $11,565-79,400) per death averted. Conclusion: While current practices for PEP provisioning in the Philippines have improved access, a large proportion of people exposed to rabies (> 26%, 95% PrI 18.8%-40.1%) are still not seeking healthcare. Integrating an intersectoral surveillance system, such as IBCM, into national policy could greatly improve case detection if well implemented, with further benefits extending to guidance for PEP administration, potentially reducing unnecessary expenditure on PEP, and situational awareness to inform control of rabies through mass dog vaccination.

Seroprevalence and assessment of public awareness of Brucella spp., Toxoplasma gondii and Chlamydia abortus in small ruminants from selected smallholder commercial farms of Zimbabwe.

Brucella spp., Toxoplasma gondii, and Chlamydia abortus have long been recognized as zoonoses and significant causes of reproductive failure in small ruminants globally. A cross-sectional study was conducted in August 2020 to determine the seroprevalences of Brucella spp., Toxoplasma gondii and Chlamydia abortus in 398 small ruminants from four districts of Zimbabwe (Chivi, Makoni, Zvimba, and Goromonzi) using Indirect-ELISAs. A structured questionnaire was used to assess the knowledge, attitudes, and practices of 103 smallholder farmers towards small ruminant abortions, Brucella spp., T. gondii and C. abortus, and to obtain a general overview of the significance of small ruminant reproductive failure(s) on their livelihoods. The overall seroprevalences were: 9.1% (95% CI: 6.4-12.3) for Brucella spp., 6.8% (95% CI: 4.5-9.7) for T. gondii and 2.0% (95% CI: 0.9-3.9) for C. abortus. Location, age, parity, and abortion history were associated with Brucella spp. seropositivity. Location was also associated with both T. gondii and C. abortus seropositivity. The questionnaire survey established that 44% of respondents had recently faced reproductive disease challenges within their flocks, with 34% correctly identifying abortion causes and only 10%, 6% and 4% having specific knowledge of Brucella spp., C. abortus and T. gondii, respectively. This study provides the first serological evidence of Brucella spp. in small ruminants since 1996 and builds the evidence on small ruminant toxoplasmosis and chlamydiosis in Zimbabwe. Evidence of these zoonoses in small ruminants and the paucity of knowledge shows the need for a coordinated One Health approach to increase public awareness of these diseases, and to establish effective surveillance and control measures. Further studies are required to establish the role these diseases play in small ruminant reproductive failure(s), to identify the Brucella spp. detected here to species/subspecies level, and to assess the socio-economic impact of reproductive failure in livestock among marginalised rural communities.

Modelling the impact of COVID-19 and routine MenACWY vaccination on meningococcal carriage and disease in the UK.

Country-wide social distancing and suspension of non-emergency medical care due to the COVID-19 pandemic will undoubtedly have affected public health in multiple ways. While non-pharmaceutical interventions are expected to reduce the transmission of several infectious diseases, severe disruptions to healthcare systems have hampered diagnosis, treatment, and routine vaccination. We examined the effect of this disruption on meningococcal disease and vaccination in the UK. By adapting an existing mathematical model for meningococcal carriage, we addressed the following questions: What is the predicted impact of the existing MenACWY adolescent vaccination programme? What effect might social distancing and reduced vaccine uptake both have on future epidemiology? Will catch-up vaccination campaigns be necessary? Our model indicated that the MenACWY vaccine programme was generating substantial indirect protection and suppressing transmission by 2020. COVID-19 social distancing is expected to have accelerated this decline, causing significant long-lasting reductions in both carriage prevalence of meningococcal A/C/W/Y strains and incidence of invasive meningococcal disease. In all scenarios modelled, pandemic social mixing effects outweighed potential reductions in vaccine uptake, causing an overall decline in carriage prevalence from 2020 for at least 5 years. Model outputs show strong consistency with recently published case data for England.

Maternal immunisation against Group B Streptococcus: A global analysis of health impact and cost-effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Group B Streptococcus (GBS) can cause invasive disease (iGBS) in young infants, typically presenting as sepsis or meningitis, and is also associated with stillbirth and preterm birth. GBS vaccines are under development, but their potential health impact and cost-effectiveness have not been assessed globally. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We assessed the health impact and value (using net monetary benefit (NMB), which measures both health and economic effects of vaccination into monetary units) of GBS maternal vaccination in an annual cohort of 140 million pregnant women across 183 countries in 2020. Our analysis uses a decision tree model, incorporating risks of GBS-related health outcomes from an existing Bayesian disease burden model. We extrapolated country-specific GBS-related healthcare costs using data from a previous systematic review and calculated quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost due to infant mortality and long-term disability. We assumed 80% vaccine efficacy against iGBS and stillbirth, following the WHO Preferred Product Characteristics, and coverage based on the proportion of pregnant women receiving at least 4 antenatal visits. One dose was assumed to cost $50 in high-income countries, $15 in upper-middle income countries, and $3.50 in low-/lower-middle-income countries. We estimated NMB using alternative normative assumptions that may be adopted by policymakers. Vaccinating pregnant women could avert 127,000 (95% uncertainty range 63,300 to 248,000) early-onset and 87,300 (38,100 to 209,000) late-onset infant iGBS cases, 31,100 deaths (14,400 to 66,400), 17,900 (6,380 to 49,900) cases of moderate and severe neurodevelopmental impairment, and 23,000 (10,000 to 56,400) stillbirths. A vaccine effective against GBS-associated prematurity might also avert 185,000 (13,500 to 407,000) preterm births. Globally, a 1-dose vaccine programme could cost $1.7 billion but save $385 million in healthcare costs. Estimated global NMB ranged from $1.1 billion ($-0.2 to 3.8 billion) under the least favourable normative assumptions to $17 billion ($9.1 to 31 billion) under the most favourable normative assumptions. The main limitation of our analysis was the scarcity of data to inform some of the model parameters such as those governing health-related quality of life and long-term costs from disability, and how these parameters may vary across country contexts. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that maternal GBS vaccination could have a large impact on infant morbidity and mortality. Globally, a GBS maternal vaccine at reasonable prices is likely to be a cost-effective intervention.

Surveillance of invasive meningococcal disease in southern Brazil: considerations of an immunization programme.

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is a major cause of meningitis and septicaemia worldwide. Changes in serogroup predominance contribute to the unpredictable nature of the disease, with significant health impact. This study aimed to determine the epidemiological profile of IMD in Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Paraná, three states in southern Brazil. We analysed 1024 IMD cases that had been confirmed by clinical and/or laboratory criteria and reported to the national information system for notifiable diseases between 2015 and 2019. Additionally, we calculated the proportions of serogroup and incidence by age. Of 1024 cases, 562 (55 %) were caused by serogroup C. Furthermore, serogroup W was responsible for almost half of the cases among children younger than 5 years between 2017 and 2018, with an overall incidence of 1.5 cases/100 000 infants. IMD remains a significant healthcare issue in southern Brazil despite reduced serogroup C incidence after the introduction of the meningococcal C conjugate vaccine into the childhood immunization programme. Changes in disease epidemiology were observed, and serogroup W was the most common serogroup among children younger than 5 years in 2017 and 2018. Although future cost-effectiveness studies are necessary, our results could have future implications for meningococcal vaccination programmes.

Validation and use of a serum bactericidal antibody assay for Neisseria meningitidis serogroup X in a seroprevalence study in Niger, West Africa.

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) affects approximately 1.2 million people worldwide annually. Prevention of IMD is mostly provided through vaccination; however, no licensed vaccine is currently available to protect against meningococcal serogroup X associated infection. Limited data are available on the natural immunity to Neisseria meningitidis serogroup X within the African sub-Saharan meningitis belt. The objective of the study was to provide an overview of natural immunity to serogroup X within a community in the African meningitis belt prior to the introduction of a pentavalent conjugate vaccine (NmCV-5). Prior to its introduction, a validated assay to assess vaccine efficacy was also required. This study therefore incorporated two objectives: a seroprevalence study to assess natural immunity in serum samples (n = 377) collected from Niger, West Africa in 2012, and the validation of a serogroup X serum bactericidal antibody (SBA) assay. Seroprevalence data obtained found that natural immunity to N. meningitidis serogroup X were present in 52.3% of study participants. The highest putative protective titres (≥8) to serogroup X were seen in age group 5-14 years-old (73.9%) and lowest in ages < 1 year old (0%). The SBA assay was successfully validated for selectivity/specificity, precision/reproducibility, linearity, and stability. This study demonstrated the suitability of the serogroup X SBA assay in clinical trials for future meningococcal conjugate vaccines containing serogroup X polysaccharides.

Impact of meningococcal ACWY conjugate vaccines on pharyngeal carriage in adolescents: evidence for herd protection from the UK MenACWY programme.

OBJECTIVE: Serogroup W and Y invasive meningococcal disease increased globally from 2000 onwards. Responding to a rapid increase in serogroup W clonal complex 11 (W:cc11) invasive meningococcal disease, the UK replaced an adolescent booster dose of meningococcal C conjugate vaccine with quadrivalent MenACWY conjugate vaccine in 2015. By 2018, the vaccine coverage in the eligible school cohorts aged 14 to 19 years was 84%. We assessed the impact of the MenACWY vaccination programme on meningococcal carriage. METHODS: An observational study of culture-defined oropharyngeal meningococcal carriage prevalence before and after the start of the MenACWY vaccination programme in UK school students, aged 15 to 19 years, using two cross-sectional studies: 2014 to 2015 "UKMenCar4" and 2018 "Be on the TEAM" (ISRCTN75858406). RESULTS: A total of 10 625 participants preimplementation and 13 438 postimplementation were included. Carriage of genogroups C, W, and Y (combined) decreased from 2.03 to 0.71% (OR 0.34 [95% CI 0.27-0.44], p < 0.001). Carriage of genogroup B meningococci did not change (1.26% vs 1.23% [95% CI 0.77-1.22], p = 0.80) and genogroup C remained rare (n = 7/10 625 vs 17/13 438, p = 0.135). The proportion of serogroup positive isolates (i.e. those expressing capsule) decreased for genogroup W by 53.8% (95% CI -5.0 - 79.8, p = 0.016) and for genogroup Y by 30.1% (95% CI 8.946·3, p = 0.0025). DISCUSSION: The UK MenACWY vaccination programme reduced carriage acquisition of genogroup and serogroup Y and W meningococci and sustained low levels of genogroup C carriage. These data support the use of quadrivalent MenACWY conjugate vaccine for indirect (herd) protection.

COVID-19 impact on routine immunisations for vaccine-preventable diseases: Projecting the effect of different routes to recovery.

Over the past two decades, vaccination programmes for vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) have expanded across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, the rise of COVID-19 resulted in global disruption to routine immunisation activities. Such disruptions could have a detrimental effect on public health, leading to more deaths from VPDs, particularly without mitigation efforts. Hence, as routine immunisation activities resume, it is important to estimate the effectiveness of different approaches for recovery. We apply an impact extrapolation method developed by the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium to estimate the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions with different recovery scenarios for ten VPDs across 112 LMICs. We focus on deaths averted due to routine immunisations occurring in the years 2020-2030 and investigate two recovery scenarios relative to a no-COVID-19 scenario. In the recovery scenarios, we assume a 10% COVID-19-related drop in routine immunisation coverage in the year 2020. We then linearly interpolate coverage to the year 2030 to investigate two routes to recovery, whereby the immunization agenda (IA2030) targets are reached by 2030 or fall short by 10%. We estimate that falling short of the IA2030 targets by 10% leads to 11.26% fewer fully vaccinated persons (FVPs) and 11.34% more deaths over the years 2020-2030 relative to the no-COVID-19 scenario, whereas, reaching the IA2030 targets reduces these proportions to 5% fewer FVPs and 5.22% more deaths. The impact of the disruption varies across the VPDs with diseases where coverage expands drastically in future years facing a smaller detrimental effect. Overall, our results show that drops in routine immunisation coverage could result in more deaths due to VPDs. As the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions is dependent on the vaccination coverage that is achieved over the coming years, the continued efforts of building up coverage and addressing gaps in immunity are vital in the road to recovery.