Efficient border biosecurity inspection leverages superspreading to reduce biological invasion risk.

Biological invasions are a growing threat to biodiversity, food security, and economies. Rising pressure from increased global trade requires improving border inspection efficiency. Here, we depart from the conventional consignment-by-consignment approach advocated in current inspection standards. Instead, we suggest a broader perspective: evaluating border inspection regimes based on their ability to reduce propagule pressure across entire pathways. Additionally, we demonstrate that most biosecurity pathways exhibit superspreading behavior, that is, consignments from the same pathway have varying infestation rates and contain rare right-tail events (also called overdispersion). We show that greater overdispersion leads to more pronounced diminishing returns, with consequences on the optimal allocation of sampling effort. We leverage these two insights to develop a simple and efficient border inspection regime that can significantly reduce propagule pressure compared to current standards. Our analysis revealed that consignment size is a key driver of biosecurity risk and that sampling proportional to the square root of consignment size is near optimal. In testing, our framework reduced propagule pressure by 31 to 38% compared to current standards. We also identified opportunities to further improve inspection efficiency by considering additional pathway characteristics (i.e., overdispersion parameters, zero inflation, relative risk, sampling cost, detectability) and developed solutions for these more complex scenarios. We anticipate our result will mitigate biological invasion risk with significant implications for biodiversity conservation, food security, and economies worldwide.

Long-term hydrological response emerges from forest self-thinning behaviour and tree sapwood allometry.

Fires in forested catchments are of great concern to catchment managers due to their potential effect on water yield. Among other factors such as meteorological conditions and topography, dominant vegetation and its regeneration traits can play a key role in controlling the variability in the type and recovery-time of the hydrological response between forested catchments after stand-replacing fires. In temperate South-Eastern Australia, a long-term reduction in streamflow from catchments dominated by regenerating tall-wet Eucalyptus obligate seeder forests was observed, which has substantial implications for Melbourne's water supply. While the unusual hydrological response has been attributed to the higher water-use of the regrowth forests, the dominant underlying mechanism has not yet been identified. Here we show analytically and with a closed-form solution that this streamflow pattern can emerge from forest dynamics, namely the combination of growth and tree mortality as constrained by the self-thinning line (STL) and sapwood allometry of the dominant overstory tree species under non-limiting rainfall regimes. A sensitivity analysis shows that observed variations in the relative streamflow anomaly trend can be explained by parameters controlling: (i) the shape of the STL; (ii) regeneration success; (iii) radial tree growth rate; and (iv) fire severity. We conclude that the observed variation in long-term post-disturbance streamflow behaviour might have resulted from different trajectories of forest dynamics and suggest that to minimize uncertainty in future water-balance predictions, eco-hydrological models for even aged forests include a mechanistic representation of stand demography processes that are constrained by forest inventory data.

Assessing the quality of offshore Binomial sampling biosecurity inspections using onshore inspections.

Introduction of pests and diseases through trade is one of the main socio-ecological challenges worldwide. Although Binomial sampling inspection at the border can reduce pest entry risk, it is common for consignments to fail inspection, wasting resources for both exporter and importer. Outsourcing the inspection to the exporting country could reduce the cost of inspection for both parties. However, there is then a need to assess the quality of the offshore inspection. In this paper, we develop an inverse method combining past inspection data on the pathway, an onshore inspection sample, and the Beta-Binomial model to infer the sample size of the offshore inspection. We illustrate the method on two case studies: the importation of live plants through germplasm into Australia and the importation of pelleted seeds in New Zealand. In these case studies, we found that detecting four to five infested units in a single onshore inspection was typically sufficient to significantly doubt the presence of a compliant offshore inspection. We also ran a simulation experiment to quantify the statistical power to reject or accept the presence of compliant offshore inspection in practice: In highly infested pathways, we could detect the absence of offshore inspections after inspecting five consignments onshore. Less infested pathways required inspecting 20 to 60 consignments onshore. Our study demonstrates that Binomial sampling onshore can be used to assess the quality of offshore inspections.

The effect of species, size, and fire intensity on tree mortality within a catastrophic bushfire complex.

Infrequent, high-intensity disturbances can have profound impacts on forested landscapes, changing forest structure and altering relative species abundance. However, due to their rarity and the logistical challenges of directly observing such extreme events, both the spatial variability of disturbance intensity and the species-specific responses to this variability are poorly understood. We used observed patterns of mortality across a fire severity gradient following the 2009 Black Saturday fires in southeastern Australia to simultaneously estimate (1) species- and size-specific susceptibility to fire-induced mortality and (2) fire intensity. We found broad variation in patterns of fire susceptibility among the 10 tree species (five eucalypts and five non-eucalypts) sufficiently abundant for analysis. Among the eucalypts, Eucalyptus obliqua was the most resistant to fire-induced mortality, with trees of ~25 cm DBH having a 50% probability of surviving even the most intense fires. In contrast, E. regnans had 100% mortality across all size classes when subjected to high-intensity fire. Basal resprouting occurred in six of the study species and, when accounted for, fundamentally changed the mortality profile of these species, highlighting the importance of resprouting as an adaptation to fire in these landscapes. In particular, the two iconic cool temperate rainforest species (Nothofagus cunninghami and Atherosperma moschatum) were strong resprouters (~45% of individuals were able to resprout after being top-killed by fire). We also found evidence for compositional shifts in regeneration above threshold values of fire intensity in cool temperate rainforest and mixed forest sites, both of which have important conservation values within these landscapes. The observed patterns of species- and size-specific susceptibility to fire-induced mortality may be used to anticipate changes in forest structure and composition in the future. In addition, they may also help guide forest management strategies that reduce the length of time individual trees are exposed to potentially lethal fires, thereby increasing the resilience of these forests to future fires.

Estimating Consignment-Level Infestation Rates from the Proportion of Consignment that Failed Border Inspection: Possibilities and Limitations in the Presence of Overdispersed Data.

Introduction of pests and diseases through trade is one of the main socioecological challenges worldwide. Targeted sampling at border security can efficiently provide information about biosecurity threats and also reduce pest entry risk. Prioritizing sampling effort requires knowing which pathways are most infested. However, border security inspection data are often right-censored, as inspection agencies often only report that a consignment has failed inspection (i.e., there was at least one unit infested), not how many infested units were found. A method has been proposed to estimate the mean infestation rate of a pathway from such right-censored data (Chen et al.). Using simulations and case study data from imported germplasm consignments inspected at the border, we show that the proposed method results in negatively biased estimates of the pathway infestation rate when the inspection data exhibit overdispersion (i.e., varying infestation rates among different consignments of the same pathway). The case study data also show that overdispersion is prevalent in real data sets. We demonstrate that the method proposed by Chen et al. recovers the median infestation rate of the pathway, rather than its mean. Therefore, it underpredicts the infestation rate when the data are overdispersed (in right-skewed distributions, the mean is above the median). To allow better monitoring and optimizing sampling effort at the border, we recommend that border protection agencies report all the data (the number of infested units found together with the sample size of the inspection) instead of only that the consignment failed inspection.

Lignite effects on NH3, N2O, CO2 and CH4 emissions during composting of manure.

Production of compost from cattle manure results in ammonia (NH3) and greenhouse gas emissions, causing the loss of valuable nitrogen (N) and having negative environmental impacts. Lignite addition to cattle pens has been reported to reduce NH3 emissions from manure by approximately 60%. However, the effect of lignite additions during the manure composting process, in terms of gaseous emissions of NH3, nitrous oxide (N2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), and methane (CH4) is not clear. This composting study was conducted at a commercial cattle feedlot in Victoria, Australia. Prior to cattle entering the feedlot, we applied 4.5 kg m-2 of dry lignite to a treatment pen, and no lignite to a control pen. After 90 days of occupancy, the cattle were removed and the accumulated manure from each pen was used to form two separate compost windrows (control and treatment). During composting we collected manure samples regularly and quantified gaseous emissions of NH3, N2O, CO2, and CH4 from both windrows with an inverse-dispersion technique using open-path Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (OP-FTIR). Over the 87-day measurement period, the cumulative gas fluxes of NH3, N2O, CO2, and CH4 were 3.4 (± 0.6, standard error), 0.4 (± 0.1), 932 (± 99), and 1.2 (± 0.3) g kg-1 (initial dry matter (DM)), respectively for the lignite amended windrow, and 7.2 (± 1.3), 0.1 (± 0.03), 579 (± 50) and -0.5 (± 0.1) g kg-1 DM, respectively for the non-lignite windrow. The addition of lignite reduced NH3 emissions by 54% during composting, but increased total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2.6 times. Total N losses as NH3-N and N2O-N were approximately 11 and 25% of initial N for the lignite and non-lignite windrows, respectively. The effectiveness of retaining N was obvious in the first three weeks after windrow formation. A cost-benefit analysis indicated that the benefit of lignite addition to cattle pens by reduced NH3 emission could justify the trade-off of increased GHG emissions.

Phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation of functional traits influences intra-specific variation in hydraulic efficiency and safety.

Understanding which hydraulic traits are under genetic control and/or are phenotypically plastic is essential in understanding how tree species will respond to rapid shifts in climate. We quantified hydraulic traits in Eucalyptus obliqua L'Her. across a precipitation gradient in the field to describe (i) trait variation in relation to long-term climate and (ii) the short-term (seasonal) ability of traits to adjust (i.e., phenotypic plasticity). Seedlings from each field population were raised under controlled conditions to assess (iii) which traits are under strong genetic control. In the field, drier populations had smaller leaves with anatomically thicker xylem vessel walls, a lower leaf hydraulic vulnerability and a lower water potential at turgor loss point, which likely confers higher hydraulic safety. Traits such as the water potential at turgor loss point and ratio of sapwood to leaf area (Huber value) showed significant adjustment from wet to dry conditions in the field, indicating phenotypic plasticity and importantly, the ability to increase hydraulic safety in the short term. In the nursery, seedlings from drier populations had smaller leaves and a lower leaf hydraulic vulnerability, suggesting that key traits associated with hydraulic safety are under strong genetic control. Overall, our study suggests a strong genetic control over traits associated with hydraulic safety, which may compromise the survival of wet-origin populations in drier future climates. However, phenotypic plasticity in physiological and morphological traits may confer sufficient hydraulic safety to facilitate genetic adaptation.

Stand density, tree social status and water stress influence allocation in height and diameter growth of Quercus petraea (Liebl.).

Even-aged forest stands are competitive communities where competition for light gives advantages to tall individuals, thereby inducing a race for height. These same individuals must however balance this competitive advantage with height-related mechanical and hydraulic risks. These phenomena may induce variations in height-diameter growth relationships, with primary dependences on stand density and tree social status as proxies for competition pressure and access to light, and on availability of local environmental resources, including water. We aimed to investigate the effects of stand density, tree social status and water stress on the individual height-circumference growth allocation (Δh-Δc), in even-aged stands of Quercus petraea Liebl. (sessile oak). Within-stand Δc was used as surrogate for tree social status. We used an original long-term experimental plot network, set up in the species production area in France, and designed to explore stand dynamics on a maximum density gradient. Growth allocation was modelled statistically by relating the shape of the Δh-Δc relationship to stand density, stand age and water deficit. The shape of the Δh-Δc relationship shifted from linear with a moderate slope in open-grown stands to concave saturating with an initial steep slope in closed stands. Maximum height growth was found to follow a typical mono-modal response to stand age. In open-grown stands, increasing summer soil water deficit was found to decrease height growth relative to radial growth, suggesting hydraulic constraints on height growth. A similar pattern was found in closed stands, the magnitude of the effect however lowering from suppressed to dominant trees. We highlight the high phenotypic plasticity of growth in sessile oak trees that further adapt their allocation scheme to their environment. Stand density and tree social status were major drivers of growth allocation variations, while water stress had a detrimental effect on height in the Δh-Δc allocation.

Herbivory of an invasive slug in a model grassland community can be affected by earthworms and mycorrhizal fungi.

Invasion of non-native species is among the top threats for the biodiversity and functioning of native and agricultural ecosystems worldwide. We investigated whether the herbivory of the slug Arion vulgaris (formerly Arion lusitanicus; Gastropoda), that is listed among the 100 worst alien species in Europe, is affected by soil organisms commonly present in terrestrial ecosystems (i.e. earthworms-Annelida: Lumbricidae and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi-AMF, Glomerales). We hypothesized that slug herbivory would be affected by soil organisms via altered plant nutrient availability and plant quality. In a greenhouse experiment, we created a simple plant community consisting of a grass, a forb, and a legume species and inoculated these systems with either two earthworm species and/or four AMF taxa. Slugs were introduced after plants were established. Earthworms significantly reduced total slug herbivory in AMF-inoculated plant communities (P = 0.013). Across plant species, earthworms increased leaf total N and secondary metabolites, AMF decreased leaf thickness. Mycorrhizae induced a shift in slug feeding preference from non-legumes to legumes; the grass was generally avoided by slugs. AMF effects on legume herbivory can partly be explained by the AMF-induced increase in total N and decrease in C/N ratio; earthworm effects are less clear as no worm-induced alterations of legume plant chemistry were observed. The presence of earthworms increased average AMF colonization of plant roots by 140 % (P < 0.001). Total shoot mass was significantly increased by AMF (P < 0.001). These data suggest that the feeding behavior of this invasive slug is altered by a belowground control of plant chemical quality and community structure.