Altered Cerebrospinal Fluid Neurofilament Light Chain but Not Neurogranin Levels Are Associated with Response to Ocrelizumab Treatment in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis: A Preliminary Study.

INTRODUCTION: Ocrelizumab is a CD20-targeting monoclonal antibody used for treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS). Serum and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) neurofilament light (NFL) chain levels are reduced in MS patients under ocrelizumab treatment indicating a preventive action against neuro-axonal degeneration. Our aim, in this preliminary study, was to explore the impact of ocrelizumab treatment on synaptic integrity through assessment of neurogranin levels. METHODS: Thirteen relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patients resistant to first-line immunomodulating agents were enrolled and followed up for 24 months under ocrelizumab treatment. Disease activity was monitored by periodic EDSS, MSSS, and cranial-spinal MRI assessments. No evidence of disease activity (NEDA)-3 was determined, and CSF levels of NFL (marker of neuro-axonal integrity) and neurogranin (marker of synaptic integrity) were measured by ELISA at baseline and 12-month ocrelizumab treatment. RESULTS: Seven RRMS patients, who preserved NEDA-3 status during 24-month follow-up, showed ≥30% NFL level decrease, whereas 6 patients with stable/increased NFL levels displayed relapse, MRI lesion, or disability progression. Although most RRMS patients exhibited increased CSF levels of neurogranin under ocrelizumab treatment, patients with and without neurogranin level increase did not differ in terms of clinical features and NEDA-3 status. Baseline neurogranin levels negatively correlated with baseline EDSS scores. CONCLUSION: Our results confirm that NFL effectively monitors treatment response of RRMS patients under ocrelizumab treatment. Neurogranin does not appear to exhibit a similar benefit in screening of RRMS disease activity. Nevertheless, lower neurogranin levels are associated with increased disability in RRMS indicating a potential disease activity biomarker function.

Silencing of FCRLB by shRNA ameliorates MuSK-induced EAMG in mice.

INTRODUCTION: Muscle specific kinase (MuSK) antibody positive myasthenia gravis (MG) often presents with a severe disease course and resistance to treatment. Treatment-refractory patients may respond to B cell depleting treatment methods. Our aim was to investigate whether inhibition of Fc receptor-like B (FCRLB) could effectively suppress autoimmunity without diminishing B cell counts in animal model of MG, a classical antibody-mediated autoimmune disease. METHODS: Experimental autoimmune MG was induced in Balb/C mice with two s.c. immunizations with recombinant human MuSK in complete Freund's adjuvant. FCRLB was silenced with a lentiviral particle transported shRNA in myasthenic mice with a single i.p. injection during second MuSK-immunization. Control immunized mice received scrambled shRNA or saline. Mice were observed for clinical parameters for 28 days and at termination, anti-MuSK IgG, neuromuscular junction (NMJ) deposits, muscle AChR expression and lymph node B and T cell ratios were assessed by ELISA, immunofluorescence, immunoblotting and flow cytometry, respectively. RESULTS: FCRLB shRNA-treated mice showed no muscle weakness or weight loss at termination. Also, they exhibited higher grip strength and muscle AChR levels, lower anti-MuSK IgG and NMJ IgG/C3 levels than control mice. Flow cytometry analysis showed that ratios of major effector lymph node B and T cell populations were not altered by FCRLB silencing. However, regulatory T and CD19 + CD5+ B cell ratios were decreased in FCRLB shRNA-group. CONCLUSION: Our results provide evidence regarding involvement and therapeutic value of FCRLB in MuSK-MG. Silencing of FCRLB appears to substantially inhibit antibody production without interfering with survival of major lymphocyte populations.

Chloride intracellular channel protein-1 (CLIC1) antibody in multiple sclerosis patients with predominant optic nerve and spinal cord involvement.

INTRODUCTION: Antibodies to cell surface proteins of astrocytes have been described in chronic inflammatory demyelinating disorders (CIDD) of the central nervous system including multiple sclerosis (MS) and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD). Our aim was to identify novel anti-astrocyte autoantibodies in relapsing remitting MS (RRMS) patients presenting predominantly with spinal cord and optic nerve attacks (MS-SCON). METHODS: Sera of 29 MS-SCON patients and 36 healthy controls were screened with indirect immunofluorescence to identify IgG reacting with human astrocyte cultures. Putative target autoantigens were investigated with immunoprecipitation (IP) and liquid chromatography-mass/mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) studies using cultured human astrocytes. Validation of LC-MS/MS results was carried out by IP and ELISA. RESULTS: Antibodies to astrocytic cell surface antigens were detected in 5 MS-SCON patients by immunocytochemistry. LC-MS/MS analysis identified chloride intracellular channel protein-1 (CLIC1) as the single common membrane antigen in 2 patients with MS-SCON. IP experiments performed with the commercial CLIC1 antibody confirmed CLIC1-antibody. Home made ELISA using recombinant CLIC1 protein as the target antigen identified CLIC1 antibodies in 9/29 MS-SCON and 3/15 relapsing inflammatory optic neuritis (RION) patients but in none of the 30 NMOSD patients, 36 RRMS patients with only one or no myelitis/optic neuritis attacks and 36 healthy controls. Patients with CLIC1-antibodies showed trends towards exhibiting reduced disability scores. CONCLUSION: CLIC1-antibody was identified for the first time in MS and RION patients, confirming once again anti-astrocytic autoimmunity in CIDD. CLIC1-antibody may potentially be utilized as a diagnostic biomarker for differentiation of MS from NMOSD.

Serum CXCL5 as a biomarker in multiple sclerosis and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder.

OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to determine whether serum C-X-C motif chemokine 5 (CXCL5) may serve as a diagnostic biomarker for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) as well as a marker that can be used to predict treatment response. METHODS: CXCL5 levels were measured by ELISA in sera of 20 RRMS patients under fingolimod treatment, 10 neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) patients, 15 RRMS patients presenting predominantly with spinal cord and optic nerve attacks (MS-SCON), and 14 healthy controls. RESULTS: Fingolimod treatment significantly reduced CXCL5 levels. CXCL5 levels were comparable among NMOSD and MS-SCON patients. CONCLUSION: Fingolimod might regulate the innate immune system. Serum CXCL5 measurement does not differentiate between RRMS and NMOSD.

Comparative Effectiveness of Autologous Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant vs Fingolimod, Natalizumab, and Ocrelizumab in Highly Active Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis.

Importance: Autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplant (AHSCT) is available for treatment of highly active multiple sclerosis (MS). Objective: To compare the effectiveness of AHSCT vs fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab in relapsing-remitting MS by emulating pairwise trials. Design, Setting, and Participants: This comparative treatment effectiveness study included 6 specialist MS centers with AHSCT programs and international MSBase registry between 2006 and 2021. The study included patients with relapsing-remitting MS treated with AHSCT, fingolimod, natalizumab, or ocrelizumab with 2 or more years study follow-up including 2 or more disability assessments. Patients were matched on a propensity score derived from clinical and demographic characteristics. Exposure: AHSCT vs fingolimod, natalizumab, or ocrelizumab. Main outcomes: Pairwise-censored groups were compared on annualized relapse rates (ARR) and freedom from relapses and 6-month confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score worsening and improvement. Results: Of 4915 individuals, 167 were treated with AHSCT; 2558, fingolimod; 1490, natalizumab; and 700, ocrelizumab. The prematch AHSCT cohort was younger and with greater disability than the fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab cohorts; the matched groups were closely aligned. The proportion of women ranged from 65% to 70%, and the mean (SD) age ranged from 35.3 (9.4) to 37.1 (10.6) years. The mean (SD) disease duration ranged from 7.9 (5.6) to 8.7 (5.4) years, EDSS score ranged from 3.5 (1.6) to 3.9 (1.9), and frequency of relapses ranged from 0.77 (0.94) to 0.86 (0.89) in the preceding year. Compared with the fingolimod group (769 [30.0%]), AHSCT (144 [86.2%]) was associated with fewer relapses (ARR: mean [SD], 0.09 [0.30] vs 0.20 [0.44]), similar risk of disability worsening (hazard ratio [HR], 1.70; 95% CI, 0.91-3.17), and higher chance of disability improvement (HR, 2.70; 95% CI, 1.71-4.26) over 5 years. Compared with natalizumab (730 [49.0%]), AHSCT (146 [87.4%]) was associated with marginally lower ARR (mean [SD], 0.08 [0.31] vs 0.10 [0.34]), similar risk of disability worsening (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.54-2.09), and higher chance of disability improvement (HR, 2.68; 95% CI, 1.72-4.18) over 5 years. AHSCT (110 [65.9%]) and ocrelizumab (343 [49.0%]) were associated with similar ARR (mean [SD], 0.09 [0.34] vs 0.06 [0.32]), disability worsening (HR, 1.77; 95% CI, 0.61-5.08), and disability improvement (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 0.66-2.82) over 3 years. AHSCT-related mortality occurred in 1 of 159 patients (0.6%). Conclusion: In this study, the association of AHSCT with preventing relapses and facilitating recovery from disability was considerably superior to fingolimod and marginally superior to natalizumab. This study did not find evidence for difference in the effectiveness of AHSCT and ocrelizumab over a shorter available follow-up time.

Erratum: Clinical and Demographic Characteristics and Two-Year Efficacy and Safety Data of 508 Multiple Sclerosis Patients with Fingolimod Treatment.

[This corrects the article on p. 23 in vol. 60, PMID: 36911568.].

The risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis is geographically determined but modifiable.

Geographical variations in the incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis have been reported globally. Latitude as a surrogate for exposure to ultraviolet radiation but also other lifestyle and environmental factors are regarded as drivers of this variation. No previous studies evaluated geographical variation in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, an advanced form of multiple sclerosis that is characterized by steady accrual of irreversible disability. We evaluated differences in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in relation to latitude and country of residence, modified by high-to-moderate efficacy immunotherapy in a geographically diverse cohort of patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. The study included relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients from the global MSBase registry with at least one recorded assessment of disability. Secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was identified as per clinician diagnosis. Sensitivity analyses used the operationalized definition of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis and the Swedish decision tree algorithm. A proportional hazards model was used to estimate the cumulative risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis by country of residence (latitude), adjusted for sex, age at disease onset, time from onset to relapsing-remitting phase, disability (Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score) and relapse activity at study inclusion, national multiple sclerosis prevalence, government health expenditure, and proportion of time treated with high-to-moderate efficacy disease-modifying therapy. Geographical variation in time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive phase of multiple sclerosis was modelled through a proportional hazards model with spatially correlated frailties. We included 51 126 patients (72% female) from 27 countries. The median survival time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis among all patients was 39 (95% confidence interval: 37 to 43) years. Higher latitude [median hazard ratio = 1.21, 95% credible interval (1.16, 1.26)], higher national multiple sclerosis prevalence [1.07 (1.03, 1.11)], male sex [1.30 (1.22, 1.39)], older age at onset [1.35 (1.30, 1.39)], higher disability [2.40 (2.34, 2.47)] and frequent relapses [1.18 (1.15, 1.21)] at inclusion were associated with increased hazard of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Higher proportion of time on high-to-moderate efficacy therapy substantially reduced the hazard of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis [0.76 (0.73, 0.79)] and reduced the effect of latitude [interaction: 0.95 (0.92, 0.99)]. At the country-level, patients in Oman, Tunisia, Iran and Canada had higher risks of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis relative to the other studied regions. Higher latitude of residence is associated with a higher probability of developing secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. High-to-moderate efficacy immunotherapy can mitigate some of this geographically co-determined risk.

Clinical and Demographic Characteristics and Two-Year Efficacy and Safety Data of 508 Multiple Sclerosis Patients with Fingolimod Treatment.

Introduction: Fingolimod is the first oral immunomodulatory treatment used as secondary care therapy in the treatment of multiple sclerosis for the last 10 years. The objective of our study is to reveal the experiences of the first generic fingolimod active ingredient treatment in different centers across Turkey. Method: The first generic fingolimod efficacy and safety data of patients followed-up in 29 different clinical multiple sclerosis units in Turkey were analyzed retrospectively. Data regarding efficacy and safety of the patients were transferred to the data system both before the treatment and on the 6th, 12th and 24th month following the treatment. The data were analyzed using the IBM SPSS 20.00. P value of <0.05 was considered to be statistically significant. Results: A total of 508 multiple sclerosis patients, 331 of whom were women, were included in the study. Upon comparing the Expanded Disability Status values before and after the treatment, a significant decrease was observed, especially at month 6 and thereafter. Since bradycardia occurred in 11 of the patients (2.3%), the first dose had to be longer than 6 hours. During the observation of the first dose, no issues that could prevent the use of the drug occured. Side effects were seen in 49 (10.3%) patients during the course of fingolimod treatment. Respectively, the most frequent side effects were bradycardia, hypotension, headache, dizziness and tachycardia. Conclusion: The observed results regarding efficacy and safety were similar to clinical trial data in the literature and real life data in terms of the first equivalent with fingolimod active ingredient.

Retrospective analysis of effectiveness of fingolimod in real life setting in Turkey (REFINE).

BACKGROUND: During multiple sclerosis (MS) treatment different modes of action such as lateral (interferon beta to glatiramer acetate or glatiramer acetate to interferon beta) or vertical (interferon beta/glatiramer acetate to fingolimod) drug switch can be performed. This study aims to investigate the clinical effectiveness of switching from the first-line injectable disease modifying treatments (iDMTs) to fingolimod (FNG) compared to switching between first-line iDMTs. METHODS: This is a multicenter, observational and retrospective study of patients with relapsing-remitting MS who had lateral and vertical switch. The observation period included three key assessment time points (before the switch, at switch, and after the switch). Data were collected from the MS patients' database by neurologists between January 2018 and June 2019. The longest follow-up period of the patients was determined as 24 months after the switch. RESULTS: In 462 MS patients that were included in the study, both treatments significantly decreased the number of relapses during the postswitch 12 months versus preswitch one year while patients in the FNG group experienced significantly fewer relapses compared to iDMT cohort in the postswitch 12 months period. FNG cohort experienced fewer relapses than in the iDMT cohort within the postswitch 2 year. The mean time to first relapse after the switch was significantly longer in the FNG group. DISCUSSION: The present study revealed superior effectiveness of vertical switch over lateral switch regarding the improvement in relapse outcomes. Patients in the FNG cohort experienced sustainably fewer relapses during the follow-up period after the switch compared the iDMT cohort. Importantly, switching to FNG was more effective in delaying time to first relapse when compared with iDMTs.

Early non-disabling relapses are important predictors of disability accumulation in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic significance of non-disabling relapses in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether early non-disabling relapses predict disability accumulation in RRMS. METHODS: We redefined mild relapses in MSBase as 'non-disabling', and moderate or severe relapses as 'disabling'. We used mixed-effects Cox models to compare 90-day confirmed disability accumulation events in people with exclusively non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis to those with no early relapses; and any early disabling relapses. Analyses were stratified by disease-modifying therapy (DMT) efficacy during follow-up. RESULTS: People who experienced non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis accumulated more disability than those with no early relapses if they were untreated (n = 285 vs 4717; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.00-1.68) or given platform DMTs (n = 1074 vs 7262; HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.15-1.54), but not if given high-efficacy DMTs (n = 572 vs 3534; HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.71-1.13) during follow-up. Differences in disability accumulation between those with early non-disabling relapses and those with early disabling relapses were not confirmed statistically. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that early non-disabling relapses are associated with a higher risk of disability accumulation than no early relapses in RRMS. This risk may be mitigated by high-efficacy DMTs. Therefore, non-disabling relapses should be considered when making treatment decisions.

Comparative effectiveness in multiple sclerosis: A methodological comparison.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of evidence from randomised controlled trials, observational data can be used to emulate clinical trials and guide clinical decisions. Observational studies are, however, susceptible to confounding and bias. Among the used techniques to reduce indication bias are propensity score matching and marginal structural models. OBJECTIVE: To use the comparative effectiveness of fingolimod vs natalizumab to compare the results obtained with propensity score matching and marginal structural models. METHODS: Patients with clinically isolated syndrome or relapsing remitting MS who were treated with either fingolimod or natalizumab were identified in the MSBase registry. Patients were propensity score matched, and inverse probability of treatment weighted at six monthly intervals, using the following variables: age, sex, disability, MS duration, MS course, prior relapses, and prior therapies. Studied outcomes were cumulative hazard of relapse, disability accumulation, and disability improvement. RESULTS: 4608 patients (1659 natalizumab, 2949 fingolimod) fulfilled inclusion criteria, and were propensity score matched or repeatedly reweighed with marginal structural models. Natalizumab treatment was associated with a lower probability of relapse (PS matching: HR 0.67 [95% CI 0.62-0.80]; marginal structural model: 0.71 [0.62-0.80]), and higher probability of disability improvement (PS matching: 1.21 [1.02 -1.43]; marginal structural model 1.43 1.19 -1.72]). There was no evidence of a difference in the magnitude of effect between the two methods. CONCLUSIONS: The relative effectiveness of two therapies can be efficiently compared by either marginal structural models or propensity score matching when applied in clearly defined clinical contexts and in sufficiently powered cohorts.

Variability of the response to immunotherapy among subgroups of patients with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This study assessed the effect of patient characteristics on the response to disease-modifying therapy (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: We extracted data from 61,810 patients from 135 centers across 35 countries from the MSBase registry. The selection criteria were: clinically isolated syndrome or definite MS, follow-up ≥ 1 year, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score ≥ 3, with ≥1 score recorded per year. Marginal structural models with interaction terms were used to compare the hazards of 12-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated patients stratified by their characteristics. RESULTS: Among 24,344 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.45-0.60), 46% lower risk of disability worsening (HR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.41-0.71), and 32% greater chance of disability improvement (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.09-1.59). The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The magnitude of the effect of DMT on suppressing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and prior cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity. We did not find any evidence for the effect of age on the effectiveness of DMT. After inclusion of 1985 participants with progressive MS, the effect of DMT on disability mostly depended on MS phenotype, whereas its effect on relapses was driven mainly by prior relapse activity. CONCLUSIONS: DMT is generally most effective among patients with lower disability and in relapsing MS phenotypes. There is no evidence of attenuation of the effect of DMT with age.

Ocrelizumab Treatment Modulates B-Cell Regulating Factors in Multiple Sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Antibodies to CD20 efficiently reduce new relapses in multiple sclerosis (MS), and ocrelizumab has been shown to be effective also in primary progressive MS. Although anti-CD20 treatments efficiently deplete B cells in blood, some B cells and CD20- plasma cells persist in lymphatic organs and the inflamed CNS; their survival is regulated by the B cell-activating factor (BAFF)/A proliferation-inducing ligand (APRIL) system. The administration of a soluble receptor for BAFF and APRIL, atacicept, unexpectedly worsened MS. Here, we explored the long-term effects of ocrelizumab on immune cell subsets as well as on cytokines and endogenous soluble receptors comprising the BAFF-APRIL system. METHODS: We analyzed immune cell subsets and B cell-regulating factors longitudinally for up to 2.5 years in patients with MS treated with ocrelizumab. In a second cohort, we determined B-cell regulatory factors in the CSF before and after ocrelizumab. We quantified the cytokines BAFF and APRIL along with their endogenous soluble receptors soluble B-cell maturation antigen (sBCMA) and soluble transmembrane activator and calcium-modulator and cyclophilin ligand (CAML) interactor (sTACI) using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs). In addition, we established an in-house ELISA to measure sTACI-BAFF complexes. RESULTS: Ocrelizumab treatment of people with MS persistently depleted B cells and CD20+ T cells. This treatment enhanced BAFF and reduced the free endogenous soluble receptor and decoy sTACI in both serum and CSF. Levels of sTACI negatively correlated with BAFF levels. Reduction of sTACI was associated with formation of sTACI-BAFF complexes. DISCUSSION: We describe a novel effect of anti-CD20 therapy on the BAFF-APRIL system, namely reduction of sTACI. Because sTACI is a decoy for APRIL, its reduction may enhance local APRIL activity, thereby promoting regulatory IgA+ plasma cells and astrocytic interleukin (IL)-10 production. Thus, reducing sTACI might contribute to the beneficial effect of anti-CD20 as exogenous sTACI (atacicept) worsened MS. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class IV evidence that endogenous sTACI in blood and CSF is decreased after ocrelizumab treatment.

The comparative effectiveness of fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab are commonly used in the second-line treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). However, these have only been compared in observational studies, not in controlled trials, with limited and inconclusive results being reported. A comparison of their effect on relapse and disability in a real-world setting is therefore needed. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to compare the efficacy of fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab in reducing disease activity in RRMS. METHODS: This multicenter, retrospective observational study was carried out with prospectively collected data from 16 centers. All consecutive RRMS patients treated with fingolimod, natalizumab, and ocrelizumab were included. Data for relapses, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores, and brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans were collected. Patients were matched using propensity scores. Annualized relapse rates (ARR), time to first relapse, and disability accumulation were compared. RESULTS: Propensity score matching retained 736 patients in the fingolimod versus 370 in the natalizumab groups, 762 in the fingolimod versus 434 in the ocrelizumab groups, and 310 in the natalizumab versus 310 in the ocrelizumab groups for final analyses. Mean ARR decreased markedly from baseline after treatment in all three treatment groups. Mean on-treatment ARR was lower in natalizumab-treated patients (0.09, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.07-0.12) than in those treated with fingolimod (0.17, 0.15-0.19, p<0.001), ocrelizumab (0.08, 0.06-0.11), and fingolimod (0.14, 0.12-0.16, p=0.001). No significant difference was observed in mean on-treatment ARR between patients treated with natalizumab (0.08, 0.06-0.11) and ocrelizumab (0.09, 0.07-0.12, p=0.54). Compared to fingolimod, the natalizumab and ocrelizumab groups exhibited a higher percentage of relapse-free patients and a lower percentage of MRI-active patients at year 1. No significance differences in disability accumulation were determined between the therapies. CONCLUSION: Natalizumab and ocrelizumab exhibited similar effects on relapse control, and both were associated with better relapse control than fingolimod. The effects of the three therapies on disability outcomes were similar.

External validation of a clinical prediction model in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Timely initiation of disease modifying therapy is crucial for managing multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVE: We aimed to validate a previously published predictive model of individual treatment response using a non-overlapping cohort from the Middle East. METHODS: We interrogated the MSBase registry for patients who were not included in the initial model development. These patients had relapsing MS or clinically isolated syndrome, a recorded date of disease onset, disability and dates of disease modifying therapy, with sufficient follow-up pre- and post-baseline. Baseline was the visit at which a new disease modifying therapy was initiated, and which served as the start of the predicted period. The original models were used to translate clinical information into three principal components and to predict probability of relapses, disability worsening or improvement, conversion to secondary progressive MS and treatment discontinuation as well as changes in the area under disability-time curve (ΔAUC). Prediction accuracy was assessed using the criteria published previously. RESULTS: The models performed well for predicting the risk of disability worsening and improvement (accuracy: 81%-96%) and performed moderately well for predicting the risk of relapses (accuracy: 73%-91%). The predictions for ΔAUC and risk of treatment discontinuation were suboptimal (accuracy < 44%). Accuracy for predicting the risk of conversion to secondary progressive MS ranged from 50% to 98%. CONCLUSION: The previously published models are generalisable to patients with a broad range of baseline characteristics in different geographic regions.

Serum 3-phenyllactic acid level is reduced in benign multiple sclerosis and is associated with effector B cell ratios.

BACKGROUND: 3-phenyllactic acid (PLA) is produced by both intestinal bacteria and the human host. PLA exists in its D- and L- chiral forms. It modulates human immune functions, thereby acting as a mediator of bacterial-host interactions. We aim to determine the amount and potential influence of PLA on clinical and immunological features of MS. METHODS: We measured D- and L-PLA levels in bacterial supernatants and in sera of 60 MS patients and 25 healthy controls. We investigated potential associations between PLA levels, clinical features of MS, serum cytokine levels and ratios of peripheral blood lymphocyte subsets. RESULTS: Multiple gut commensal bacteria possessed the capacity to generate D- and L-PLA. MS patients with benign phenotype showed markedly lower PLA levels than healthy controls or other MS patients. Fingolimod resistant patients had higher PLA levels at baseline. Furthermore, MS patients with higher PLA levels tended to display increased memory B and plasma cell ratios, elevated IL-4 levels and increased ratios of IL-4 and IL-10 producing T cell subsets. CONCLUSION: Collectively, our work indicates that reduced serum levels of PLA could be associated with a favorable clinical course in MS and possibly be used as a biomarker.

Early predictors of disability in paediatric multiple sclerosis: evidence from a multi-national registry.

BACKGROUND: Early recognition of markers of faster disability worsening in paediatric-onset multiple sclerosis (MS) is a key requisite of personalised therapy for children with MS at the earliest possible time. OBJECTIVE: To identify early predictors of rapid disability accrual in patients with paediatric-onset MS. METHODS: Using the global MSBase registry, we identified patients who were <18 years old at the onset of MS symptoms. The clinico-demographic characteristics examined as predictors of future MS Severity Score (MSSS) included sex, age at symptom onset, absence of disability at the initial assessment, maximum Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score, relapse frequency and presence of brainstem, pyramidal, visual or cerebellar symptoms in the first year. A Bayesian log-normal generalised linear mixed model adjusted for cumulative proportion of time on higher-efficacy disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) was used to analyse the data. RESULTS: 672 patients (70% female) contributing 9357 visits were included. The median age at symptom onset was 16 (quartiles 15-17) years. Older age at symptom onset (exp(ß)=1.10 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.17)), higher EDSS score (1.22 (1.12 to 1.34)) and pyramidal (1.31 (1.11 to 1.55)), visual (1.25 (1.10 to 1.44)) or cerebellar (1.18 (1.01 to 1.38)) symptoms in the first year were associated with higher MSSS. MSSS was reduced by 4% for every 24% increase in the proportion of time on higher-efficacy DMTs (0.96 (0.93 to 0.99)). CONCLUSIONS: A relatively later onset of MS in childhood, higher disability and pyramidal, visual or cerebellar symptoms during the first year predicted significant worsening in disability in patients with paediatric-onset MS. Persistent treatment with higher-efficacy DMTs was associated with a reduced rate of disability worsening.

Disease Reactivation After Cessation of Disease-Modifying Therapy in Patients With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the rate of return of disease activity after cessation of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapy. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study from 2 large observational MS registries: MSBase and OFSEP. Patients with relapsing-remitting MS who had ceased a disease-modifying therapy and were followed up for the subsequent 12 months were included in the analysis. The primary study outcome was annualized relapse rate in the 12 months after disease-modifying therapy discontinuation stratified by patients who did, and did not, commence a subsequent therapy. The secondary endpoint was the predictors of first relapse and disability accumulation after treatment discontinuation. RESULTS: A total of 14,213 patients, with 18,029 eligible treatment discontinuation epochs, were identified for 7 therapies. Annualized rates of relapse (ARRs) started to increase 2 months after natalizumab cessation (month 2-4 ARR 0.47, 95% CI 0.43-0.51). Commencement of a subsequent therapy within 2-4 months reduced the magnitude of disease reactivation (mean ARR difference: 0.15, 0.08-0.22). After discontinuation of fingolimod, rates of relapse increased overall (month 1-2 ARR: 0.80, 0.70-0.89) and stabilized faster in patients who started a new therapy within 1-2 months (mean ARR difference: 0.14, -0.01 to 0.29). The magnitude of disease reactivation for other therapies was low but reduced further by commencement of another treatment 1-10 months after treatment discontinuation. Predictors of relapse were a higher relapse rate in the year before cessation, female sex, younger age, and higher EDSS score. Commencement of a subsequent therapy reduced both the risk of relapse (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.72-0.81) and disability accumulation (0.73, 0.65-0.80). DISCUSSION: The rate of disease reactivation after treatment cessation differs among MS treatments, with the peaks of relapse activity ranging from 1 to 10 months in untreated cohorts that discontinued different therapies. These results suggest that untreated intervals should be minimized after stopping antitrafficking therapies (natalizumab and fingolimod). CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class III that disease reactivation occurs within months of discontinuation of MS disease-modifying therapies. The risk of disease activity is reduced by commencement of a subsequent therapy.