Burden of recreational water illness due to exposure to cyanobacteria and their toxins in freshwater beaches in Canada: protocol of a prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Cyanobacterial blooms are increasingly common in freshwater sources used for swimming and other recreational water contact activities in Canada. Many species of cyanobacteria can produce toxins that affect human and animal health, but there are limited data on the risk of illness associated with water contact at impacted beaches. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study will investigate the incidence of recreational water illness due to exposure to cyanobacterial blooms and their toxins in four targeted and popular freshwater beaches in Ontario, Manitoba and Nova Scotia, Canada. A prospective cohort design and One Health approach will be used. On-site recruitment of recreational water users will be conducted at two beaches per year during the summers of 2024 and 2025. The population of interest includes recreational water users of any age and their pet dogs. After enrolment, an in-person survey will determine beach exposures and confounding factors, and a 3-day follow-up survey will ascertain any acute illness outcomes experienced by participants or their dogs. The target sample size is 2500 recreational water users. Water samples will be taken each recruitment day and analysed for cyanobacterial indicators (pigments), cell counts and toxin levels. Bayesian regression analysis will be conducted to estimate the association with water contact, cyanobacterial levels and risks of different acute illness outcomes. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has been approved by the Toronto Metropolitan University Research Ethics Board (REB 2023-461). Study results will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and as infographics on a project website.

Examining the Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Iraqi Refugees in Canada.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated health and social inequities among migrant groups more than others. Higher rates of poverty, unemployment, living in crowded households, and language barriers have placed resettled refugees at a higher risk of facing disparities during the COVID-19 pandemic. To understand how this most vulnerable population has been impacted by the ongoing pandemic, this study reports on the responses of 128 Iraqi refugees in the city of London, Ontario, to a survey on the economic, social, and health-related impacts that they have faced for almost two years since the beginning the pandemic. The analysis of the survey indicated that 90.4% of the study population reported having health concerns during the pandemic while 80.3% expressed facing financial distress. The results also show that 58.4% of respondents experienced some form of social isolation. These all suggest that refugees are faced with several barriers which can have a compounding effect on their resettlement experience. These findings provide resettlement and healthcare providers with some information that may assist in reducing the impact of COVID-19 and other possible health security emergencies on resettled refugees and their communities.

Environmental predictors of Escherichia coli concentration at marine beaches in Vancouver, Canada: a Bayesian mixed-effects modelling analysis.

Understanding historical environmental determinants associated with the risk of elevated marine water contamination could enhance monitoring marine beaches in a Canadian setting, which can also inform predictive marine water quality models and ongoing climate change preparedness efforts. This study aimed to assess the combination of environmental factors that best predicts Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentration at public beaches in Metro Vancouver, British Columbia, by combining the region's microbial water quality data and publicly available environmental data from 2013 to 2021. We developed a Bayesian log-normal mixed-effects regression model to evaluate predictors of geometric E. coli concentrations at 15 beaches in the Metro Vancouver Region. We identified that higher levels of geometric mean E. coli levels were predicted by higher previous sample day E. coli concentrations, higher rainfall in the preceding 48 h, and higher 24-h average air temperature at the median or higher levels of the 24-h mean ultraviolet (UV) index. In contrast, higher levels of mean salinity were predicted to result in lower levels of E. coli. Finally, we determined that the average effects of the predictors varied highly by beach. Our findings could form the basis for building real-time predictive marine water quality models to enable more timely beach management decision-making.

Relationship between extreme precipitation and acute gastrointestinal illness in Toronto, Ontario, 2012-2022.

Extreme precipitation events are occurring more intensely in Canada. This can contaminate water sources with enteric pathogens, potentially increasing the risk of acute gastrointestinal illness. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between extreme precipitation and emergency department (ED) visits for acute gastrointestinal illness in Toronto from 2012 to 2022. Distributed lag non-linear models were constructed on ED visit counts with a Quasi Poisson distribution. Extreme precipitation was modelled as a 21-day lag variable, with a linear relationship assumed at levels ≧95th percentile. Separate models were also conducted on season-specific data sets. Daily precipitation and gastrointestinal illness ED visits ranged between 0 to 126 mm, and 12 to 180 visits respectively. Overall, a 10-mm increase in precipitation >95th percentile had no significant relationship with the risk of ED visits. However, stratification by seasons revealed significant relationships during spring (lags 1-19, peak at lag 14 RR = 1.04; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.06); the overall cumulative effect across the 21-day lag was also significant (RR = 1.94; 95% CI: 1.47, 2.57). Extreme precipitation has a seasonal effect on gastrointestinal health outcomes in Toronto city, suggesting varying levels of enteric pathogen exposures through drinking water or other environmental pathway during different seasons.

"There's a little bit of mistrust": Red River Métis experiences of the H1N1 and COVID-19 pandemics.

We examined the perspectives of the Red River Métis citizens in Manitoba, Canada, during the H1N1 and COVID-19 pandemics and how they interpreted the communication of government/health authorities' risk management decisions. For Indigenous populations, pandemic response strategies play out within the context of ongoing colonial relationships with government institutions characterized by significant distrust. A crucial difference between the two pandemics was that the Métis in Manitoba were prioritized for early vaccine access during H1N1 but not for COVID-19. Data collection involved 17 focus groups with Métis citizens following the H1N1 outbreak and 17 focus groups during the COVID-19 pandemic. Métis prioritization during H1N1 was met with some apprehension and fear that Indigenous Peoples were vaccine-safety test subjects before population-wide distribution occurred. By contrast, as one of Canada's three recognized Indigenous nations, the non-prioritization of the Métis during COVID-19 was viewed as an egregious sign of disrespect and indifference. Our research demonstrates that both reactions were situated within claims that the government does not care about the Métis, referencing past and ongoing colonial motivations. Government and health institutions must anticipate this overarching colonial context when making and communicating risk management decisions with Indigenous Peoples. In this vein, government authorities must work toward a praxis of decolonization in these relationships, including, for example, working in partnership with Indigenous nations to engage in collaborative risk mitigation and communication that meets the unique needs of Indigenous populations and limits the potential for less benign-though understandable-interpretations.

'Stay home and stay safe but maybe you can have somebody over': public perceptions of official COVID-19 messages during the 2020 holiday season in Canada.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic triggered extreme preventive measures, including economic and social lockdowns. Many experts and commentators, however, have argued in favor of a harm reduction approach, giving individuals the liberty to assess their risk and potentially engage in risky behavior more safely. Drawing on concepts from harm reduction literature we examine how Canadians interpreted messages intended to mitigate harm during the 2020 end-of-year holiday season. METHODS: We conducted 12 focus groups in four Canadian cities to discuss public health guidance to reduce the spread of COVID-19, how these messages influenced their holiday celebration plans, and how they interpreted harm mitigation messages. RESULTS: Focus group participants (n = 82) described COVID-19 public health guidance as confusing and difficult to follow. Participants considered that messages intended to mitigate harm from official sources would contribute to deepening confusion and uncertainty, allow for personal interpretation of guidelines, and discourage those who follow guidelines diligently. CONCLUSION: Official public health messaging intended to mitigate harm in rapidly evolving crisis situations can be ineffective in reducing risky behaviors because it may instead encourage people to not abide the recommended guidelines. In these situations, harm reduction messaging should be limited to specific groups who cannot otherwise avoid risk exposure.

Recreational water exposures and illness outcomes at a freshwater beach in Toronto, Canada: A prospective cohort pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Swimming and other recreational water activities in surface waters are popular in Canada during the summer. However, these activities can also increase the risk of recreational water illness. While routine monitoring of beach water quality is conducted by local authorities each summer, little research is available in Canada about beach exposures and illness risks. METHODS: We conducted a pilot of a prospective cohort study at a popular beach in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, in 2022 to determine characteristics of beachgoers, common water and sand exposures, the incidence of recreational water illness, and the feasibility for a larger, national cohort study. We enrolled beachgoers on-site and surveyed about their exposures at the beach and conducted a follow-up survey 7 days following their beach visit to ascertain acute gastrointestinal, respiratory, skin, ear, and eye illness outcomes. We descriptively tabulated and summarized the collected data. RESULTS: We enrolled 649 households, consisting of 831 beachgoers. Water contact activities were reported by 56% of beachgoers, with swimming being the most common activity (44% of participants). Similarly, 56% of beachgoers reported digging in the sand or burying themselves in the sand. Children (≤14 years) and teenagers (15-19 years) were most likely to report engaging in water contact activities and swallowing water, while children were most likely to report sand contact activities and getting sand in their mouth. Boys and men were more likely than women and girls to report swallowing water (15.2% vs. 9.4%). Water and sand exposures also differed by household education level and participant ethno-racial identity. E. coli levels in beach water were consistently low (median = 20 CFU/100 mL, range = 10-58). The incidence of illness outcomes was very low (0.3-2.8%) among the 287 participants that completed the follow-up survey. CONCLUSIONS: The identified beach exposure patterns can inform future risk assessments and communication strategies. Excellent water quality was observed at the studied beach, likely contributing to the low incidence of illnesses. A larger, national cohort study is needed in Canada to examine risks of illness at beaches at higher risk of fecal contamination.

"I won't be a guinea pig": Rethinking public health communication and vaccine hesitancy in the context of COVID-19.

At the beginning of 2021, when Canada started distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, the unprecedented scope and severity of the pandemic led to very high levels of public awareness and attention, with Canadians actively seeking information. We argue that while there was continuous public health communication about COVID-19 and the newly available vaccines, these messages did not address the specific anxieties elicited by the novel vaccines, even as vaccination guidelines changed. Instead, public health messages about COVID-19 vaccines resembled those aimed at reducing vaccine hesitancy for routine immunization and did not sufficiently address the constant changes to COVID-19 vaccine recommendations. In a context of heightened public concern and significant public attention, it is crucial for communicators to acknowledge that hesitancy is vaccine-specific, and that novel diseases and new vaccines produce specific concerns. Long-term strategies should address the novelty of the technology and of the risk, thoroughly explain the reasons for shifting vaccination guidelines, and leverage trusted sources, such as community leaders. Further, as COVID-19 vaccines become less effective against some of the more recent variants of the virus, vaccine messaging needs to be tailored to evolve with shifting realities to not lose productive gains in the COVID-19 vaccination campaign to date.

When good messages go wrong: Perspectives on COVID-19 vaccines and vaccine communication from generally vaccine accepting individuals in Canada.

Vaccines are one of the most important and successful public health interventions to reduce the spread of infectious diseases. However, unlike childhood diseases and routine vaccines, COVID-19 is a novel threat, and COVID-19 vaccines may elicit specific anxieties. Through focus groups, we examine the concerns and attitudes toward the COVID-19 vaccine expressed by individuals who accept routine vaccinations in Canada. We also conducted a pre-focus group survey to document participant attitudes towards vaccines in general. While most participants had received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine or had the intention to get it, many had concerns. First, participants felt anxious about the quick development and approval of the vaccines, even if they recognized that the vaccines have undergone clinical trials. Second, participants felt confused about shifting public health guidelines regarding vaccine safety, changing the interval between doses, and mixing different vaccine brands. Finally, participants said they felt abandoned when deciding whether to get vaccinated or not. People who generally accept vaccines expressed concerns about COVID-19 vaccines, mostly related to the inevitable uncertainties of a new vaccine (i.e. novelty, safety, mandates, etc.). COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, understood as concerns about the novelty of a vaccine and the rapid implementation of it, could be useful for understanding questioning attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccines from people who accept routine vaccinations. Understanding COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy can also provide valuable insights as booster doses are periodically needed and people may not be as accepting of these additional doses.

"They're trying to bribe you and taking away your freedoms": COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in communities with traditionally low vaccination rates.

Vaccination is an essential public health intervention to control the COVID-19 pandemic. A minority of Canadians, however, remain hesitant about COVID-19 vaccines, while others outright refuse them. We conducted focus groups to gauge perceptions and attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccines in people who live in a region with historically low rates of childhood vaccination. Participants discussed their perception of COVID-19 vaccines and their intention to get vaccinated, and the low rate of COVID-19 vaccine uptake in Manitoba's Southern Health Region compared to other regions in Canada. We identified three drivers of vaccine hesitancy: (1) risk perceptions about COVID-19 and the vaccines developed to protect against it, (2) religious and conservative views; and (3) distrust in government and science. Participant proposed recommendations for improving communication and uptake of the COVID-19 vaccines included: public health messages emphasising the benefits of vaccination; addressing the community's specific concerns and dispelling misinformation; highlighting vaccine safety; and emphasising vaccination as a desirable behaviour from a religious perspective. Understanding the specific anxieties elicited by COVID-19 vaccines in areas with low childhood immunization rates can inform risk communication strategies tailored to increase vaccination in these specific regions. This study adds important information on potential reasons for vaccine hesitancy in areas with historically low rates of childhood vaccination, and provides important lessons learned for future emergencies in terms of vaccine hesitancy drivers and effective risk communication to increase vaccine uptake.

Recreational water illness in Canada: a changing risk landscape in the context of climate change.

Swimming and other recreational water activities at public beaches are popular outdoor leisure activities among Canadians. However, these activities can lead to increased risks of acquiring acute gastrointestinal illness and other illnesses among beachgoers. Young children have much higher rates of exposure and illness than other age groups. These illnesses have a significant health and economic burden on society. Climate change is expected to influence both the risk of exposure and illness. A warming climate in Canada, including more severe summer heatwave events, will likely lead to increased recreational water use. Warmer temperatures will also contribute to the growth and increased range of harmful algal blooms and other climate-sensitive pathogens. Increased precipitation and heavy rainfall events will contribute to fecal and nutrient contamination of beach waters, increasing risks of gastrointestinal illness and harmful algal bloom events. There is a need to enhance recreational water research and surveillance in Canada to prepare for and adapt to these changing risks. Key research and policy needs are suggested and discussed, including evaluating and monitoring risks of recreational water illness in Canadian contexts, improving timely reporting of recreational water quality conditions, and enhancing approaches for routine beach water surveillance.

RéSUMé: La natation et les autres activités nautiques récréatives sur les plages publiques sont des activités de loisirs en plein air populaires chez les Canadiens. Cependant, ces activités peuvent entraîner des risques accrus de contracter des maladies gastro-intestinales aiguës et d'autres maladies chez les baigneurs. Les jeunes enfants ont des taux d'exposition et d'infection beaucoup plus élevés que les autres groupes d'âge. Ces maladies représentent un lourd fardeau sanitaire et économique pour la société. On s'attend à ce que le changement climatique influence à la fois le risque d'exposition et d'infection. Un réchauffement climatique au Canada, y compris des vagues de chaleur estivales plus intenses, entraînera probablement une utilisation accrue de l'eau à des fins récréatives. Des températures plus chaudes contribueront également à la prolifération d'algues nuisibles à la santé et la croissance d'autres agents pathogènes sensibles au climat. L'augmentation des précipitations et des pluies abondantes contribueront à la contamination fécale et nutritive des eaux des plages, augmentant les risques de maladies gastro-intestinales et d'efflorescences algales nocives. Il est nécessaire d'améliorer la recherche et la surveillance des eaux récréatives au Canada pour se préparer et s'adapter à ces risques changeants. Les principaux besoins en matière de recherche et de politiques sont suggérés et discutés, y compris l'évaluation et la surveillance des risques de maladie des eaux récréatives dans les contextes canadiens, l'amélioration des rapports en temps opportun sur les conditions de qualité des eaux récréatives et l'amélioration des approches de surveillance de routine des eaux de plage.

"None of it was especially easy": improving COVID-19 vaccine equity for people with disabilities.

OBJECTIVES: Our study aimed to (1) identify barriers to equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines for Canadians with disabilities and (2) present recommendations made by study participants to improve immunization programs in terms of inclusivity and equitable access. METHODS: We invited Manitobans living with disabilities to participate in online focus groups. Focus groups were conducted across multiple disability experiences, although one focus group was advertised explicitly as offering simultaneous American Sign Language interpretation to encourage people who are d/Deaf or hard of hearing to participate. Participants were asked about their perspectives on the management of COVID-19 public health measures and vaccination program rollout. Participants were also asked about barriers and facilitators of their vaccination experiences and if they had recommendations for improvement. RESULTS: The participants identified three areas where they encountered routine barriers in accessing the COVID-19 vaccines: (1) vaccine information and appointment booking, (2) physical access to vaccination clinics, and (3) vaccination experience. While participants identified specific recommendations to improve vaccine accessibility for people with disabilities, the single most crucial advice consistently identified was to involve people with disabilities in developing accessible immunization programs. CONCLUSION: Meaningful engagement with people living with disabilities in immunization program planning would help ensure that people with disabilities, who already face significant challenges due to COVID-19, are offered the same protections as the rest of the population. These recommendations could be easily transferred to the administration of other large-scale immunization campaigns (e.g., influenza vaccines).

RéSUMé: OBJECTIFS: Notre étude visait à (1) identifier les obstacles à un accès équitable aux vaccins contre la COVID-19 pour les Canadiens vivant avec un handicap; et (2) présenter les recommandations faites par les participants à l'étude pour améliorer les programmes de vaccination en termes d'inclusivité et d'accès équitable. MéTHODES: Nous avons invité les Manitobains vivant avec un handicap à participer à des groupes de discussion en ligne. Les groupes de discussion ont été organisés pour divers types de handicap, bien qu'un groupe de discussion ait été explicitement annoncé comme offrant une interprétation simultanée en langue des signes américaine pour encourager les personnes sourdes ou malentendantes à participer. Les participants ont été interrogés sur leurs points de vue sur la gestion des mesures de santé publique contre la COVID-19 et le déploiement du programme d'immunisation. Les participants ont également été interrogés sur les obstacles et les facilitateurs de leurs expériences de vaccination et s'ils avaient des recommandations d'amélioration. RéSULTATS: Les participants ont identifié trois domaines dans lesquels ils ont rencontré des obstacles récurrents pour accéder aux vaccins contre la COVID-19 : 1) l'information sur les vaccins et la prise de rendez-vous, 2) l'accès physique aux cliniques de vaccination, et 3) l'expérience de la vaccination. Bien que les participants aient formulé des recommandations spécifiques pour améliorer l'accessibilité des vaccins pour les personnes handicapées, le conseil le plus crucial systématiquement identifié a été d'impliquer les personnes vivant avec un handicap dans l'élaboration de programmes d'immunisation accessibles. CONCLUSION: Un engagement significatif envers les personnes handicapées dans la planification du programme d'immunisation aiderait à garantir que les personnes vivant avec un handicap, qui sont déjà confrontées à des défis importants en raison de la COVID-19, bénéficient des mêmes protections que le reste de la population. Ces recommandations pourraient être facilement transférées à l'administration d'autres campagnes de vaccination à grande échelle (par exemple, le vaccin contre la grippe).

Moral panic about "covidiots" in Canadian newspaper coverage of COVID-19.

Moral panics are moments of intense and widespread public concern about a specific group, whose behaviour is deemed a moral threat to the collective. We examined public health guidelines in the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Canadian newspaper editorials, columns and letters to the editor, to evaluate how perceived threats to public interests were expressed and amplified through claims-making processes. Normalization of infection control behaviours has led to a moral panic about lack of compliance with preventive measures, which is expressed in opinion discourse. Following public health guidelines was construed as a moral imperative and a civic duty, while those who failed to comply with these guidelines were stigmatized, shamed as "covidiots," and discursively constructed as a threat to public health and moral order. Unlike other moral panics in which there is social consensus about what needs to be done, Canadian commentators presented a variety of possible solutions, opening a debate around infection surveillance, privacy, trust, and punishment. Public health communication messaging needs to be clear, to both facilitate compliance and provide the material conditions necessary to promote infection prevention behaviour, and reduce the stigmatization of certain groups and hostile reactions towards them.

The Association Between Child Marriage and Domestic Violence in Afghanistan.

Child marriage and intimate partner violence have been globally recognized as human rights violations. Both indicators can derail an individual's future and have various public health implications. Previous studies have shown an association between child marriage and domestic violence in low- and middle-income countries; however, data in Afghanistan are not known. This study aimed to assess the association between child marriage and domestic violence in Afghanistan. We used nationally representative data collected by the Demographic and Health Surveys to conduct logistic regression analyses. Child marriage was separated into three categories: very early marriage (<15 years), early marriage (15-17 years), and adult marriage (≥18 years). Domestic violence was the response variable and was assessed as any violence, physical violence, emotional violence, and sexual violence. Of the sample (N = 21,324), 15% of the respondents were married before the age of 15; 35% were married between the ages of 15 and 17; and 50% were married as adults. After adjusting for current age, place of residence, and socioeconomic status, the odds of sexual violence were 22% higher among women who married before age 15 compared with those married as adults (OR = 1.22, 95% CI = [1.05, 1.40], p = .005). However, the odds of reporting any violence, physical violence, and emotional violence among those who married as children did not differ compared with those who married as adults. This may be due to a shift in traditional norms or underreporting in Afghanistan. This study adds to the body of research on child marriage and intimate partner violence, and specifically provides novel information on this association in Afghanistan.

Region-Specific Associations between Environmental Factors and Escherichia coli in Freshwater Beaches in Toronto and Niagara Region, Canada.

Poor freshwater beach quality, measured by Escherichia coli (E. coli) levels, poses a risk of recreational water illness. This study linked environmental data to E. coli geometric means collected at 18 beaches in Toronto (2008-2019) and the Niagara Region (2011-2019) to examine the environmental predictors of E. coli. We developed region-specific models using mixed effects models to examine E. coli as a continuous variable and recommended thresholds of E. coli concentration (100 CFU/100 mL and 200 CFU/100 mL). Substantial clustering of E. coli values at the beach level was observed in Toronto, while minimal clustering was seen in Niagara, suggesting an important beach-specific effect in Toronto beaches. Air temperature and turbidity (measured directly or visually observed) were positively associated with E. coli in all models in both regions. In Toronto, waterfowl counts, rainfall, stream discharge and water temperature were positively associated with E. coli levels, while solar irradiance and water level were negatively associated. In Niagara, wave height and water level had a positive association with E. coli, while rainfall was negatively associated. The differences in regional models suggest the importance of a region-specific approach to addressing beach water quality. The results can guide beach monitoring and management practices, including predictive modelling.

Communicating scientific uncertainty in a rapidly evolving situation: a framing analysis of Canadian coverage in early days of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic brought the production of scientific knowledge onto the public agenda in real-time. News media and commentators analysed the successes and failures of the pandemic response in real-time, bringing the process of scientific inquiry, which is also fraught with uncertainty, onto the public agenda. We examine how Canadian newspapers framed scientific uncertainty in their initial coverage of the COVID-19 pandemic and how journalists made sense of the scientific process. METHODS: We conducted a framing analysis of 1143 news stories and opinion during the first two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a qualitative analysis software, our analysis focused, first, on how scientific uncertainty was framed in hard news and opinion discourse (editorial, op-ed). Second, we compared how specialist health and science reporters discussed scientific evidence versus non-specialist reporters in hard news and columns. RESULTS: Uncertainty emerged as a "master frame" across the sample, and four additional framing strategies were used by reporters and commentators when covering the pandemic: (1), evidence -focusing on presence or absence of it-; (2) transparency and leadership -focusing on the pandemic response-; (3) duelling experts - highlighting disagreement among experts or criticizing public health decisions for not adhering to expert recommendations-; and (4) mixed messaging -criticizing public health communication efforts. While specialist journalists understood that scientific knowledge evolves and the process is fraught with uncertainty, non-specialist reporters and commentators expressed frustration over changing public health guidelines, leading to the politicization of the pandemic response and condemnation of elected officials' decisions. CONCLUSIONS: Managing scientific uncertainty in evolving science-policy situations requires timely and clear communication. Public health officials and political leaders need to provide clear and consistent messages and access to data regarding infection prevention guidelines. Public health officials should quickly engage in communication course corrections if original messages are missing the intended mark, and clearly explain the shift. Finally, public health communicators should be aware of and more responsive to a variety of media reporters, who will bring different interpretative frames to their reporting. More care and effort are needed in these communication engagements to minimize inconsistencies, uncertainty, and politicization.

Systematic review of predictive models of microbial water quality at freshwater recreational beaches.

Monitoring of fecal indicator bacteria at recreational waters is an important public health measure to minimize water-borne disease, however traditional culture methods for quantifying bacteria can take 18-24 hours to obtain a result. To support real-time notifications of water quality, models using environmental variables have been created to predict indicator bacteria levels on the day of sampling. We conducted a systematic review of predictive models of fecal indicator bacteria at freshwater recreational sites in temperate climates to identify and describe the existing approaches, trends, and their performance to inform beach water management policies. We conducted a comprehensive search strategy, including five databases and grey literature, screened abstracts for relevance, and extracted data using structured forms. Data were descriptively summarized. A total of 53 relevant studies were identified. Most studies (n = 44, 83%) were conducted in the United States and evaluated water quality using E. coli as fecal indicator bacteria (n = 46, 87%). Studies were primarily conducted in lakes (n = 40, 75%) compared to rivers (n = 13, 25%). The most commonly reported predictive model-building method was multiple linear regression (n = 37, 70%). Frequently used predictors in best-fitting models included rainfall (n = 39, 74%), turbidity (n = 31, 58%), wave height (n = 24, 45%), and wind speed and direction (n = 25, 47%, and n = 23, 43%, respectively). Of the 19 (36%) studies that measured accuracy, predictive models averaged an 81.0% accuracy, and all but one were more accurate than traditional methods. Limitations identifed by risk-of-bias assessment included not validating models (n = 21, 40%), limited reporting of whether modelling assumptions were met (n = 40, 75%), and lack of reporting on handling of missing data (n = 37, 70%). Additional research is warranted on the utility and accuracy of more advanced predictive modelling methods, such as Bayesian networks and artificial neural networks, which were investigated in comparatively fewer studies and creating risk of bias tools for non-medical predictive modelling.

User-Driven Comments on a Facebook Advertisement Recruiting Canadian Parents in a Study on Immunization: Content Analysis.

BACKGROUND: More people are searching for immunization information online and potentially being exposed to misinformation and antivaccination sentiment in content and discussions on social media platforms. As vaccination coverage rates remain suboptimal in several developed countries, and outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases become more prevalent, it is important that we build on previous research by analyzing themes in online vaccination discussions, including those that individuals may see without actively searching for information on immunization. OBJECTIVE: The study aimed to explore the sentiments and themes behind an unsolicited debate on immunization in order to better inform public health interventions countering antivaccination sentiment. METHODS: We analyzed and quantified 117 user-driven open-ended comments on immunization posted in the Comments section of a Facebook advertisement that targeted Canadian parents for recruitment into a larger study on immunization. Then, 2 raters coded all comments using content analysis. RESULTS: Of 117 comments, 85 were posted by unique commentators, with most being female (65/85, 77%). The largest proportion of the immunization comments were positive (51/117, 43.6%), followed by negative (41/117, 35.0%), ambiguous (20/117, 17.1%), and hesitant (5/117, 4.3%). Inaccurate knowledge (27/130, 20.8%) and misperceptions of risk (23/130, 17.7%) were most prevalent in the 130 nonpositive comments. Other claims included distrust of pharmaceutical companies or government agencies (18/130, 13.8%), distrust of the health care system or providers (15/130, 11.5%), past negative experiences with vaccination or beliefs (10/130, 7.7%), and attitudes about health and prevention (10/130, 7.7%). Almost 40% (29/74, 39%) of the positive comments communicated the risks of not vaccinating, followed by judgments on the knowledge level of nonvaccinators (13/74, 18%). A total of 10 positive comments (10/74, 14%) specifically refuted the link between autism and vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of more than 100 unsolicited user-driven comments on a platform not intended for discussion, nor providing any information on immunization, illustrates the strong sentiments associated with immunization and the arbitrariness of the online platforms used for immunization debates. Health authorities should be more proactive in finding mechanisms to refute misinformation and misperceptions that are propagating uncontested online. Online debates and communications on immunization need to be identified by continuous monitoring in order for health authorities to understand the current themes and trends, and to engage in the discussion.

Internet Exposure Associated With Canadian Parents' Perception of Risk on Childhood Immunization: Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: There is a large presence of provaccination and antivaccination content on the Internet. The Internet has been identified as an important source for parents to seek and share vaccine information. There are concerns that parental fears or hesitancy on childhood immunizations are increasing due to the popularity of social media and exposure to online antivaccination sentiment. No other studies have investigated the association between seeking vaccine information online and Canadian parents' perception of risk on childhood immunization. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate the potential association between seeking vaccine information on the Internet and Canadian parents' perception of risk on childhood immunization in order to quantify the perceived association and increase our understanding on the impact of the Internet to help guide public health interventions. METHODS: We analyzed this association in two population samples: a self-selecting Web-based sample of Canadian parents recruited through Facebook (n=966) and a population-based sample of parents recruited by random digit dialing (RDD; n=951). The outcome was parental perception of vaccine safety on a seven-point ordinal scale from "not safe" to "extremely safe." An ordinal regression model was used to investigate if Internet information seeking on childhood vaccination predicted parental perception of vaccine safety. RESULTS: After adjusting for income level, Internet reliability, age of parent, and region, the odds of perceiving vaccines as less safe rather than more safe were 1.6 times higher (95% CI 1.3-2.1) for parents who used the Internet to search for vaccination information compared to parents who did not search the Internet in the Web-based sample, and 2.0 times higher (95% CI 1.6-2.5) in the population-based RDD sample. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest the Internet is significantly associated with Canadian parents' negative perception of vaccine risk. Governmental and scientific sectors should consider the development and implementation of Web-based vaccine interventions to promote confidence in immunization.

Facebook Recruitment of Vaccine-Hesitant Canadian Parents: Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: There is concern over the increase in the number of "vaccine-hesitant" parents, which contributes to under-vaccinated populations and reduced herd immunity. Traditional studies investigating parental immunization beliefs and practices have relied on random digit dialing (RDD); however, this method presents increasing limitations. Facebook is the most used social media platform in Canada and presents an opportunity to recruit vaccine-hesitant parents in a novel manner. OBJECTIVE: The study aimed to explore the use of Facebook as a tool to reach vaccine-hesitant parents, as compared with RDD methods. METHODS: We recruited Canadian parents over 4 weeks in 2013-14 via targeted Facebook advertisements linked to a Web-based survey. We compared methodological parameters, key parental demographics, and three vaccine hesitancy indicators to an RDD sample of Canadian parents. Two raters categorized respondent reasons for difficulties in deciding to vaccinate, according to the model of determinants of vaccine hesitancy developed by the World Health Organization's Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization. RESULTS: The Facebook campaign received a total of 4792 clicks from unique users, of whom 1696 started the Web-based survey. The total response rate of fully completed unique Web-based surveys was 22.89% (1097/4792) and the survey completion rate was 64.68% (1097/1696). The total cost including incentives was reasonable (Can $4861.19). The Web-based sample yielded younger parents, with 85.69% (940/1097) under the age of 40 years as compared with 23.38% (408/1745) in the RDD sample; 91.43% (1003/1097) of the Facebook respondents were female as compared with 59.26% (1034/1745) in the RDD sample. Facebook respondents had a lower median age of their youngest child (1 year vs 8 years for RDD). When compared with the RDD sample, the Web-based sample yielded a significantly higher proportion of respondents reporting vaccines as moderately safe to not safe (26.62% [292/1097] vs 18.57% [324/1745]), partially or not at all up-to-date vaccination status of youngest child (22.06% [242/1097] vs 9.57% [167/1745]), and difficulty in making the decision to vaccinate their youngest child (21.06% [231/1097] vs 10.09% [176/1745]). Out of the Web-based respondents who reported reasons for the difficulties in deciding to vaccinate, 37.2% (83/223) reported lack of knowledge or trust due to conflicting information and 23.8% (53/223) reported the perception of the risk of the adverse effects of vaccines being higher than the risk of disease acquisition. CONCLUSIONS: We successfully recruited a large sample of our target population at low cost and achieved a high survey completion rate using Facebook. When compared with the RDD sampling strategy, we reached more vaccine-hesitant parents and younger parents with younger children-a population more likely to be making decisions on childhood immunizations. Facebook is a promising economical modality for reaching vaccine-hesitant parents for studies on the determinants of vaccine uptake.